Seasonal Trends Fail to Hold This Quarter

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s most impressive month, delivering average returns above 40% according to CoinGlass data. This year, however, the market is departing from its traditional playbook. October, which normally posts close to 20% average gains, ended with a 3.69% decline instead, raising doubts about whether seasonality still provides reliable guidance.

Bitfinex analysts highlight that the current quarter has defied historical trends almost entirely. Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 20% from the start of November, signaling a clear break from its typical performance pattern.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $87,300.

Short-Term Holders Are Adding Pressure

According to Bitfinex, a major factor behind the recent downside move is the excessive buying activity that took place between $106,000 and $118,000. Many of the investors who entered the market at these levels are now selling at a loss, creating additional downward pressure.

The analysts also point out that Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holders’ cost basis for only the third time since early 2024. CoinGlass estimates that short-term holders — those who have held BTC for less than 155 days — have an average realized price of approximately $86,787.

Whale Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

Despite the overall weakness, certain metrics indicate that accumulation may be picking up again among larger investors. Data shared by Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has increased by 0.47% since November 11, suggesting that whale interest is once more gaining momentum.

What to Expect in December?

Even if seasonal patterns have been unreliable this year, historical data still portrays December as a relatively calmer month for Bitcoin, with average returns of about 4.75% since 2013.

From this point forward, the market appears to be narrowing toward two possible scenarios: a resurgence in demand that stabilizes prices or an extended accumulation phase that could deepen before a broader recovery. Either way, the coming weeks are likely to be pivotal for market sentiment.

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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Fed Factor

In its latest market report, Bitfinex noted that while the overall macro backdrop points toward monetary easing, the mixed signals coming from the Federal Reserve have led to a cautious sentiment across markets. Analysts described this period as a “necessary stabilization phase” before volatility can return to the crypto market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at uncertainty surrounding the possibility of another 25-basis-point rate cut in the December meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting now stands at 67.9%, down from levels above 90% seen over the past two months.

Rate cuts are generally viewed as bullish for crypto, as they encourage investors to move away from low-yield assets toward higher-risk alternatives. However, if the Fed signals a pause or a reversal in its policy, it could dampen market sentiment and trigger caution among traders.

Bitcoin Faces Consolidation Risk

Bitfinex analysts warned that investor confidence could weaken if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $116,000 mark. Long-term holders are reportedly showing signs of reduced conviction, and some are taking profits. “Unless the price breaks decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for the bulls,” the report stated.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,000, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.

November Is Usually Bullish – Will History Repeat Itself?

Despite the cautious outlook, several analysts believe Bitcoin could still follow its historical pattern of strong November gains. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 41.78% increase in November.

Crypto analyst Dave Weisberger noted that Bitcoin’s “fundamentals remain strong,” adding that “market conditions are far more constructive compared to previous cycles. We are at the bottom of the range, not the top.”

Similarly, analyst Carl Runefelt stated that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon,” while trader AshCrypto reaffirmed his bullish stance.

However, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since hitting an all-time high of $125,100 in early October. The sharp market crash on October 10, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions, continues to weigh on investor sentiment, making this November a test of patience rather than euphoria for many traders.

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At 9:00 a.m. ET, Plasma launched its raise through the ICO platform Sonar, allowing users to deposit stablecoins in exchange for the right to purchase its native token, XPL. By 9:48 a.m., the raise was complete, far surpassing the initial goal of $50 million, which represented 10% of XPL’s total supply. More than 1,100 wallets participated, each averaging around $35,000 in deposits.

First ICO on Sonar Ends in Massive Success

This fundraising event marks the first official project launch on Sonar, a new ICO platform built by Echo, the angel investment initiative created by crypto investor Cobie. Plasma’s launch through Sonar has set a high bar, showing that interest in stablecoin-based ecosystems is at an all-time high.

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According to data from Arkham, the Plasma vault now holds $345 million in USDC, $146.1 million in USDT, $7.5 million in USDS, and $1.21 million in DAI.

Tether Transaction Fees? Plasma Aims for Zero

Plasma is building an EVM-compatible sidechain designed to eliminate transaction fees for Tether’s USDT. This vision has already caught investor attention: in October 2024, Bitfinex led a $3.5 million funding round, followed by a $20 million Series A raise in February 2025.

The broader surge in stablecoin interest among institutions and venture funds played a clear role in the rapid raise. With USDT currently making up 64% of all stablecoin supply, projects like Plasma are positioning themselves at the heart of future infrastructure.

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The transfer instantly propelled Twenty One to the position of the world’s third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, behind only Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and MARA Holdings.

Behind the Billions: How the Bitcoin Was Allocated

On June 3, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed two large transactions totaling 11,417 Bitcoin. One included a 10,500 BTC transfer to an address connected to SoftBank’s investment in Twenty One Capital. The second involved 917 BTC sent to investors with equity stakes in the venture.

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An even larger move occurred the previous day: 25,812 Bitcoin were shifted in three transactions. That included 7,000 BTC from Bitfinex as direct investment, 14,000 BTC from Tether, and 4,812 BTC as pre-funding for an equity raise.

A New Kind of Bitcoin-Native Finance

Twenty One Capital aims to build Bitcoin-native infrastructure for capital markets—delivering services like lending, custody, and asset issuance directly on Bitcoin rails. The company plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Fitzgerald, valuing the company at $3.6 billion.

While this bold initiative highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, it also reignites debate over transparency. At the Bitcoin 2025 conference, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor argued against onchain proof-of-reserves, citing security concerns. Meanwhile, analytics firm Arkham Intelligence claims to have identified 87% of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings onchain.

The contrast reveals a growing divide in how major players approach visibility and risk in the evolving crypto economy.

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Tether Acquires 4,812 Bitcoin for Strategic Investment

Stablecoin issuer Tether purchased 4,812 BTC valued at $458.7 million for its affiliate investment firm, Twenty One Capital. The purchase was executed on May 9 at an average price of $95,319, with the assets transferred into escrow. The transaction was disclosed in a filing by Cantor Equity Partners to the SEC on May 13.

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Following this deal, Twenty One now holds a total of 36,312 BTC, placing it among the top corporate holders of Bitcoin. The firm is expected to trade under the ticker “XXI” upon the completion of a SPAC merger with Wall Street heavyweight Cantor Fitzgerald.

According to CEO Jack Mallers, the merger is in the approval phase. Unlike traditional firms, Twenty One Capital focuses not on earnings per share, but on “Bitcoin per share,” positioning itself as a pure vehicle for crypto-native investors.

The company aims to accumulate 42,000 BTC, with contributions projected as follows: 23,950 Bitcoin from Tether, 10,500 from SoftBank, and 7,000 from Bitfinex, to be converted into equity at $10 per share.

A New Challenger to Strategy?

In its SEC filings, Twenty One Capital expressed its ambition to overtake Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) as the most efficient vehicle for Bitcoin exposure. Promising agility and operational alignment with Bitcoin’s core ethos, the firm might soon redefine institutional crypto investing.

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Liquidity Is Returning, Dip Buying Accelerates

One of the report’s most striking points was the observation that liquidity in the crypto market is reviving. The recent price increases in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are supported by strong buying signals from lower levels.

Whale addresses have accumulated significantly, particularly in the $60,000–$62,000 price range.

The BTC price has begun to stabilize above the $60,000 level, which currently serves as a key psychological and technical support zone.

Additionally, retail investors have started buying during this period, signaling a recovery in investor confidence.

Stablecoin Supply Expands: Risk Appetite Rising

Another significant finding in the report was the increase in the supply of Tether (USDT) and other stablecoins. This trend suggests that investors are preparing to allocate capital into crypto assets:

USDT supply is rising not only on Ethereum but also on networks like TRON, which offer lower transaction fees.

The expansion in stablecoin supply indicates more inflows into exchange reserves, which could lead to a rise in trading volume.

Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations Fuel Uncertainty

The U.S. Federal Reserve (FED)’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts and the distance of U.S. CPI data from target levels are increasing the risks of short-term market volatility:

The FED is not expected to cut rates soon, which could increase demand for the U.S. dollar.

Persistent inflationary pressures may lead to a shift away from risk assets, impacting crypto market sentiment in the near term.

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Initially raising $200 million in January, the SPAC will help establish 21 Capital, a firm converting Bitcoin into equity at a projected value of $85,000 per BTC — echoing MicroStrategy’s strategy of using BTC as a balance sheet asset.

Institutional Strength Behind the Move

Tether is contributing $1.5 billion, Bitfinex adds $600 million, and SoftBank commits $900 million to the venture. An additional $550 million is expected to be raised via bonds and private equity to further expand the BTC holdings.

The announcement comes amid a new wave of institutional crypto optimism under the Trump administration, with Bitcoin trading near $92,000 and regulatory sentiment turning more favorable. This move is expected to be officially announced in the coming weeks.

Howard Lutnick, once skeptical of Tether’s liquidity, has taken a softer tone recently, especially during Senate testimonies. His firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, currently holds a large share of Tether’s U.S. Treasury reserves, indicating strong ties to the stablecoin giant.

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Thin Confidence Drives Volatility in Risk Assets

On April 15, the White House announced fresh tariffs on Chinese imports up to 245%, including:

• A 125% reciprocal tariff
• A 20% fentanyl-related import tariff
• Section 301 tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 100%

Aurélie Barthere, principal analyst at Nansen, said this escalation is targeting high-value sectors like Tech and Pharma, increasing pressure on correlated assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and US equities.

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“Unless a diplomatic breakthrough occurs, we’ll see continued risk-off sentiment among high-beta assets,” she said.

Crypto Reacts to Macroeconomic News

Since November 2024, crypto and US equities such as SPX and Nasdaq have shown strong downside correlation, especially amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Nansen estimates a 70% chance of markets bottoming out by June 2025, dependent on how tariff negotiations progress.

China has appointed Li Chenggang, a seasoned official from the Trump era, as its chief trade negotiator. Reuters described him as an “intense” figure familiar with US negotiations.

Eyes on Powell’s May 6 FOMC Speech

Amid inflation concerns and trade risks, the spotlight is on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 6.

“A hawkish tone may push Bitcoin and other risk assets down again,” said Bitfinex analysts, adding that recent rebounds in altcoins could reverse without macro clarity.

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El Salvador signed a $1.4 billion loan deal with the IMF in December 2024. As part of the agreement, the government pledged to revoke Bitcoin’s legal tender status and reduce public sector involvement with BTC. However, data shows the government is continuing its daily purchases.

Total Reserves Reach 6,105 Bitcoin

According to the El Salvador Bitcoin Office, the country’s Bitcoin treasury now holds 6,105 BTC, valued at more than $527 million at current prices. The country usually acquires 1 BTC per day but made a bulk purchase of 5 BTC on March 3.

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Bukele: “We Will Not Stop Buying”

On March 3, the IMF issued a new request pressuring El Salvador to stop accumulating Bitcoin and forbidding any issuance of debt or tokenized securities tied to BTC. Despite this, Nayib Bukele declared that the government will continue buying BTC, characterizing the IMF’s demands as “whining.”

Bukele stated:

“If it didn’t stop when the world ostracized us and most ‘bitcoiners’ abandoned us, it won’t stop now, and it won’t stop in the future.”

El Salvador’s unapologetically pro-Bitcoin stance has led many major crypto firms to relocate to the country. On January 7, Bitfinex Derivatives announced it would move its headquarters from Seychelles to El Salvador. On January 13, stablecoin issuer Tether followed by announcing plans to relocate its headquarters to El Salvador.

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On March 6, President Donald Trump signed an executive order officially establishing the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). According to this order, any Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings will be added to the reserve.

However, federal agencies must conduct a detailed audit to determine the exact amount of Bitcoin currently held by the US government.

November 2020: Silk Road Seizure (69,370 BTC)

On November 3, 2020, US authorities seized 69,370 BTC, marking the largest crypto seizure at the time, valued at $960 million.

The Bitcoin was confiscated from an unidentified hacker known as “Individual X”, who had stolen funds from the illicit online marketplace Silk Road. US officials traced these stolen Bitcoin through wallet addresses linked to Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht before the platform was shut down in 2013.

In December 2024, a court rejected a motion to block the forfeiture of these Bitcoin, allowing the US Department of Justice to sell them. By that time, the value of 69,370 BTC had risen to $6.5 billion.

January 2022: Bitfinex Hack (94,636 BTC)

On January 31, 2022, US authorities seized 94,636 BTC from Bitfinex hacker Ilya Lichtenstein, after accessing his cloud storage account, which contained a file with 2,000 crypto wallet addresses and corresponding private keys.

The seized Bitcoin accounted for approximately 80% of the 119,754 BTC that Lichtenstein had stolen from Bitfinex.

Lichtenstein and his wife Heather Morgan managed to launder 25,111 BTC before authorities could intervene.

In late 2024, Lichtenstein was sentenced to five years in prison, while Morgan received an 18-month sentence. However, experts have noted that the stolen Bitfinex funds were only seized, not forfeited. As a result, these funds could potentially be returned to Bitfinex.

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March 2022: Second Silk Road Seizure (51,351 BTC)

In March 2022, US authorities seized 51,351 BTC from James “Jimmy” Zhong, another hacker linked to Silk Road.

Four months later, US officials discovered the Bitcoin hidden in an underground floor safe and a popcorn tin stored in Zhong’s bathroom closet. At the time, the 51,351 BTC was valued at approximately $3.38 billion, making it one of the largest financial asset seizures in US history.

The US Has Started Selling Seized Bitcoin

On March 14, 2023, the US government sold 9,861 BTC for $215.7 million, all of which came from the Zhong forfeiture case.

Although additional sales of seized Bitcoin were expected to take place in four separate batches throughout 2023, these sales never materialized.

In January 2025, the Department of Justice received approval to sell 198,109 BTC seized from Silk Road. However, the Biden administration did not act on this before Trump‘s inauguration on January 20.

The US Plans to Expand Its Bitcoin Reserve

While the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will initially be funded only with forfeited BTC, the White House announced that the Commerce and Treasury Secretaries will explore ways to acquire more Bitcoin without incurring costs for US taxpayers.

Moving forward, Bitcoin held in the reserve will no longer be sold. White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks criticized the previous US administration for liquidating seized Bitcoin, arguing that the new approach signals a long-term commitment to Bitcoin ownership.

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