According to Hayes, the smarter approach right now is to wait and observe global macroeconomic developments, particularly the next moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Federal Reserve Policy Could Be the Key Driver for Bitcoin

Hayes explained that his decision to re-enter the Bitcoin market will largely depend on whether the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy. In his view, Bitcoin becomes significantly more attractive when central banks start injecting liquidity into the financial system.

He pointed out that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase the likelihood of large-scale government spending. If that happens, the U.S. may eventually resort to expanding liquidity to support its economic and military commitments. Such an environment could create favorable conditions for assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes emphasized that while some investors argue that war itself benefits Bitcoin, the more accurate interpretation is that money printing benefits Bitcoin. Historically, periods of monetary expansion have tended to support risk assets and alternative investments.

Geopolitical Tensions Could Pressure Markets

The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could weigh on global markets, according to Hayes. Escalating conflict often reduces overall risk appetite among investors, which can lead to broad sell-offs across multiple asset classes.

In such a scenario, not only equities but also digital assets like Bitcoin could face downward pressure. Hayes suggested that if the conflict continues to intensify, the market could experience a significant wave of selling.

Under those circumstances, Bitcoin could potentially fall below the $60,000 level. A move like that might trigger a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions, amplifying volatility across the market.

Bitcoin briefly approached the $60,000 level earlier in February before recovering slightly. At present, the asset is trading near the $69,000 range after a modest rebound.

Hayes Remains Bullish in the Long Term

Despite his cautious stance in the short term, Hayes remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

He previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and he continues to stand by that forecast. In his view, the long-term structural drivers supporting Bitcoin remain intact.

Hayes also noted that the period during which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 may not last for many more years. As institutional adoption grows and the market matures, such price levels could eventually become far less common.

Not All Analysts Share the Same View for Bitcoin

While Hayes is taking a wait-and-see approach, some analysts hold a more optimistic short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

Recent strength in technology stocks, particularly the surge in the Nasdaq index, has led some market observers to believe that Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit from renewed investor optimism.

According to this perspective, the broader macroeconomic environment may still support further upside in the crypto market.

Markets Are Watching the Fed

Ultimately, Hayes’ stance reflects a broader theme currently shaping financial markets: the influence of central bank policy. While he maintains strong confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he believes that the next major bullish phase could be closely tied to renewed monetary easing.

For that reason, Hayes prefers to remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making new Bitcoin investments.

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The post Arthur Hayes: “I Wouldn’t Bet Even $1 on Bitcoin Right Now” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Where Could the Liquidity Come From?

At the heart of Hayes’ argument is the US Treasury General Account (TGA), essentially the government’s primary cash account held at the Federal Reserve. When balances in the TGA are elevated, funds remain parked and largely outside the broader financial system. As the balance declines through government spending, liquidity flows back into banks and markets.

Currently, the TGA balance stands near $750 billion, while the Treasury’s guidance suggests a target closer to $450 billion. That gap implies roughly $301 billion could be released into the financial system as the balance is drawn down.

In addition, the Treasury has initiated bond buybacks aimed at improving market functioning by repurchasing older debt. Hayes estimates that, at the current pace, these buybacks could inject another $271 billion annually. Combined, these two channels represent a potential liquidity boost of approximately $572 billion.

A Form of “Stealth Stimulus”?

Although this process is not formally labeled as monetary easing, Hayes argues that its practical effect may resemble stimulus. While the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy stance in its messaging, Treasury operations are simultaneously increasing cash circulation. In liquidity-driven markets, capital flows often carry more weight than rhetoric.

Historically, periods of expanding liquidity have tended to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

Hayes believes the most difficult phase for crypto may already be over. He points out that Bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with global liquidity conditions. When US dollar supply expands, scarce assets such as BTC often experience upward pressure.

He also notes that extreme funding rates suggest crowded short positioning in the market. If fresh liquidity enters the system while traders are heavily positioned to the downside, a sharp short squeeze could follow. In that scenario, Hayes sees room for Bitcoin to revisit all-time highs and potentially approach the $100,000 level.

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The post Hayes Outlines Two Scenarios for Bitcoin: Rally or Crash? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Let’s break down Hayes’ wallet activity, the market impact, and the surrounding information noise.

Hayes’ Wallet Activity and Sale Details

Massive token transfers over the past 15–20 minutes have been interpreted by the market as sales. Movements from Hayes’ known wallets to addresses such as Binance, Wintermute, and FalconX indicate a possible liquidation.

Lookonchain data further clarifies the situation:

Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) is selling DeFi tokens.
In the past 15 minutes, he moved approximately 8.57M $ENA ($1.06), 2.04M $ETHFI ($954K), and 950K $PENDLE ($1.14M) out of his wallet — likely to sell.

Key sales are as follows:

• ENA (Ethena): 8,570,000 tokens at $0.123 per token, total value $1,060,900

• PENDLE: 950,022 tokens at $1.19–$1.20 per token, total value $1,137,350

• ETHFI (Ether.fi): 2,043,142 tokens at $0.466 per token, total value $953,410

These numbers are being interpreted as significant selling pressure by the market.

$10.37 Million Loss Claim

Some reports suggest Hayes suffered a $10.37 million loss, but current verified data indicates a smaller loss. On-chain analyst Yujin reports that Hayes’ total loss on accumulated DeFi tokens since December is approximately $3.15 million.

Therefore, the $10 million figure cannot yet be confirmed without cost-basis and transaction-level verification. Hayes’ own statement reflects the uncertainty:

“I had to take it all back… I promise, I’ll never take profit again.”

While phrased sarcastically, this remark may indicate a reduced risk appetite.

Market Conditions and Strategic Retreat

CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $68,500, with a weekly loss of about 16%. Such market conditions tend to make the movements of large wallets closely scrutinized.

Hayes’ $3.15–$3.48 million sales alone are sufficient to create short-term price pressure. However, without a transparent cost table, any interpretation remains somewhat speculative.

The data relies on Arkham-labeled wallets. Sending crypto to exchanges does not always equate to immediate sales; past actions provide a reference for possible liquidation strategies.

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The post Which DeFi Token Did BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Sell? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Rethinking the Concept of Altcoin Season

Speaking during a recent podcast appearance, Hayes argued that there are always altcoins outperforming the market at any given time. He suggests that investors who believe altcoin season has not occurred are likely those who failed to hold the assets that appreciated the most. This perspective challenges the widely held belief that altcoin season must follow a predictable, market-wide pattern.

Hayes emphasizes that many traders are still anchored to past cycles, expecting history to repeat itself in the same way. However, the crypto market has evolved significantly, and relying too heavily on historical playbooks may lead to missed opportunities.

The Risk of Looking Backward

One of Hayes’ central points is that investors often assume the next altcoin rally will feature the same projects and narratives as the last one. This mindset, he warns, can be counterproductive. Markets reward innovation and new trends, not familiarity. According to Hayes, each cycle introduces fresh themes, and successful traders are those who adapt rather than cling to outdated assumptions.

Standout Performers in the Current Cycle

To support his argument, Hayes highlights specific examples from the current market cycle. He points to Hyperliquid as one of the strongest stories so far, noting its rise from low single-digit prices to around $60. Such performance, he argues, demonstrates that meaningful altcoin rallies have already taken place — just not across the entire market.

Hayes also references Solana as another example. After collapsing to near $7 during the 2022 downturn, Solana rebounded sharply, climbing close to $300 earlier this year. These moves, in his view, are clear evidence that capital has rotated into select altcoins, even if a broad-based rally has not materialized.

A Divided Industry Perspective

Not everyone shares Hayes’ outlook. Some market participants believe the next altcoin season will be driven primarily by established cryptocurrencies, particularly those linked to exchange-traded fund products or expected regulatory approvals. Others continue to expect a traditional sequence, with Bitcoin leading the way before capital flows into Ether and smaller altcoins.

A More Selective Market Environment

Overall, the current market appears less about indiscriminate rallies and more about selective outperformance. Hayes’ message is clear: altcoin season is not a single event but an ongoing process. The key difference lies in identifying which projects truly define each cycle’s winners.

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The post Hayes: “There Is Always an Altcoin Season” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000

The world’s leading cryptocurrency has dipped to its lowest level since June, breaking below the $100,000 threshold. The move has raised fears of a deeper market correction among retail investors. However, Matt Hougan of Bitwise sees the downturn differently. He describes it as “the peak of retail capitulation,” suggesting that panic selling among individual traders is nearing exhaustion.

Speaking to CNBC’s Crypto World, Hougan noted, “Crypto retail sentiment is more depressed than I’ve ever seen. We’ve witnessed leverage washouts, and the market feels completely drained of optimism.”

Despite this, Hougan believes the broader market remains fundamentally strong. “When I talk to institutions and financial advisers, the enthusiasm is still there. Looking at a one-year chart, Bitcoin continues to deliver robust returns,” he said. Hougan also suggested that institutional demand could soon drive prices higher, projecting that Bitcoin could end the year in the $125,000–$130,000 range.

Arthur Hayes Predicts “Stealth QE” From the Fed

While Hougan focuses on investor sentiment, Arthur Hayes emphasizes liquidity as the primary force behind Bitcoin’s next rally. In his November 4 essay, Hayes argued that the United States’ rising debt levels will ultimately compel the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet — a process he refers to as “stealth quantitative easing” (stealth QE).

According to Hayes, the Fed will use its Standing Repo Facility to inject liquidity into the financial system and indirectly support Treasury financing. Although not an official QE program, he believes this mechanism will have a similar impact by increasing the money supply.

“As the Fed’s balance sheet grows, it creates dollar liquidity, which inevitably pushes Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher,” Hayes wrote, predicting that this “quiet liquidity creation” could reignite the next major bull run.

Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market?

According to Mosaic Asset and The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin has officially entered bear market territory after declining more than 20% from its all-time high on October 6. Some traders, including investor Ted Pillows, have warned that prices could fall further, possibly testing the $92,000 CME gap if the $100,000 support fails to hold.

Despite short-term volatility, both Hayes and Hougan believe the long-term setup for Bitcoin remains favorable. They argue that once panic selling subsides and liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could regain momentum — setting the stage for its next upward cycle.

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The post Arthur Hayes and Bitwise CIO’s Post-Bitcoin Drop Targets! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

“Nothing Can Stop This Train” – Hayes’ Zcash Forecast

In a recent social media post, Hayes confidently stated, “Nothing can stop this train,” implying that Zcash could reach as high as $10,000. The brief but assertive statement quickly spread across crypto communities, reigniting interest in privacy-oriented digital assets.

Zcash is a cryptocurrency built to ensure transaction privacy through zero-knowledge proof technology, allowing transactions to be verified without revealing sender, receiver, or amount details. This balance between transparency and anonymity has made ZEC one of the most discussed privacy coins since its inception.

Can ZEC Start a New Bull Cycle?

Following Hayes’s prediction, several analysts commented that his bold target might trigger renewed bullish momentum for ZEC. However, many emphasized that a $10,000 valuation remains highly speculative under current market conditions. At the time of writing, ZEC trades around $30, meaning Hayes’s target represents a potential 300x increase — a scenario that would require massive capital inflows and a strong narrative shift in the privacy sector.

Despite its technological strength, Zcash has struggled to maintain major market traction in recent years. Yet, with growing global concerns over financial surveillance and data privacy, coins like ZEC could find renewed relevance among investors and developers.

Hayes’s Track Record of Crypto Predictions

Arthur Hayes is no stranger to controversial forecasts. Known for his sharp insights and contrarian takes, he has previously made notable predictions about Bitcoin and Ethereum, many of which have proven to be directionally accurate over time. His reputation as a market thinker adds weight to his statements, even when they seem overly ambitious.

As discussions around privacy, regulation, and decentralized finance intensify, Hayes’s Zcash forecast serves as a reminder of the market’s cyclical fascination with anonymity-focused cryptocurrencies. Whether ZEC can truly embark on a path toward such a lofty valuation remains uncertain — but one thing is clear: the privacy narrative is far from over.

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The post Arthur Hayes’ Remarkable Price Prediction for This Altcoin! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

“The 4-Year Pattern Won’t Work This Time”

In his latest blog post, Hayes pointed out that many investors still expect Bitcoin to follow its historical four-year rhythm, predicting a market top based on previous bull cycles. However, he believes this approach is now outdated.

“As we approach the anniversary of this fourth cycle, traders are eager to apply the old pattern — but this time it will fail,” Hayes wrote.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s price cycles are shaped by the availability and flow of money — mainly the U.S. dollar (USD) and Chinese yuan (CNY) — rather than arbitrary timelines or institutional adoption phases.

He emphasized that past bull markets didn’t end because of time, but because monetary conditions tightened globally.

Why This Cycle Is Different

Hayes outlined several reasons why the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones:

• U.S. Treasury liquidity boost: The Treasury has injected around $2.5 trillion into markets by drawing down funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) program.

• “Run it hot” economic policy: Former U.S. President Donald Trump aims to stimulate growth through looser monetary policies to manage national debt.

• Bank deregulation plans: The U.S. is preparing to ease restrictions on banks, encouraging more lending and credit expansion.

• Rate cuts despite inflation: Despite inflation still being above target, the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. According to CME futures data, there’s a 94% probability of another cut in October and an 80% chance in December.

These factors, Hayes suggests, are combining to create a liquidity-rich environment — the perfect condition for Bitcoin’s continued rise.

What Really Drives Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

Hayes connects Bitcoin’s historical bull markets to three distinct periods of monetary expansion:

1. The first bull run (2013): Fueled by Federal Reserve quantitative easing and China’s credit boom, it ended when both economies began tightening liquidity.

2. The “ICO cycle” (2017): Driven by yuan devaluation and massive Chinese credit expansion, it collapsed once China slowed credit growth and the dollar strengthened.

3. The “COVID cycle” (2020–2021): Powered primarily by U.S. dollar liquidity while China remained conservative. The rally ended when the Fed turned hawkish in late 2021.

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The post Arthur Hayes: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Officially Dead! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Lessons From Previous Market Cycles

Looking back at Bitcoin’s past, Cowen highlighted how severe the declines have been in earlier cycles:

• Around 94% during the first major cycle

• Roughly 87% in the second cycle

• About 77% in the most recent one

While this doesn’t guarantee that the next pullback will reach 70%, Cowen emphasizes that history is a reminder for investors to remain cautious.

From $250K to $75K?

Some Bitcoin proponents, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict that BTC could climb to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, if Cowen’s projection plays out, such a peak could be followed by a steep decline toward the $75,000 range.

Cowen explained that if Bitcoin surges strongly in Q4, he would likely lock in profits and move into stablecoins—potentially waiting until mid-2026 before re-entering the market.

Spotting the Market Top Won’t Be Easy

Cowen warned that a final rally could still be ahead, but pinpointing the exact top is nearly impossible:

“Everyone will be euphoric at the peak, and no one will say, ‘this is the top.’”

This sentiment highlights how quickly momentum can shift, often catching overconfident investors off guard.

Ethereum’s Brighter Outlook Toward Cycle End

While warning of a possible deep correction for Bitcoin, Cowen sees a more favorable setup for Ethereum (ETH) as the cycle matures.

He noted that ETH might underperform BTC in the short term but is likely to outshine Bitcoin toward the end of the cycle. The ETH/BTC ratio has already gained more than 8.5% over the past 30 days, reflecting growing strength.

What Other Experts Are Saying

Not all market watchers share Cowen’s cautious outlook. A range of industry leaders have put forward their own forecasts:

• Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO): Expects 2026 to be an up year for Bitcoin.

• Steven McClurg (Canary Capital CEO): Believes BTC could rise to the $140K–$150K range this year before a bear market arrives in 2026.

• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy Executive Chairman): Declared earlier this year that “crypto winter is not coming back.”

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The post How Could Bitcoin Fall in the Next Bear Market? Analysts Weigh In appeared first on Coin Engineer.

PlanC: “The Q4 Peak Is a Statistical Misconception”

Crypto analyst PlanC recently criticized the idea that Bitcoin must top out in Q4, calling it statistically unsound.

“Assuming Bitcoin is guaranteed to peak at the end of this year goes against basic probability theory,” PlanC explained. He likened the logic to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also land tails. According to him, basing conclusions solely on three previous cycles does not constitute meaningful statistical evidence.

Are Bitcoin Halving Cycles Still Relevant?

PlanC also suggested that the traditional halving cycle model may no longer apply to Bitcoin’s trajectory. He pointed to new dynamics in the market, such as the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the billions of dollars flowing into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is no fundamental reason for a peak in Q4 2025 other than psychological momentum or a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.

Q4: Historically Bitcoin’s Strongest Quarter

Still, history shows that Q4 has often been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged an 85.42% return. But analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. In fact, if the halving cycle remains a factor, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Expert Opinions on Bitcoin

Market experts are far from united on Bitcoin’s year-end outlook:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates there’s a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches between $140,000 and $150,000 this year before a potential bear market in 2026.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes the bull cycle will last longer, stating, “I’d bet 2026 is an up year.”

• On the more bullish side, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) and Joe Burnett (Director of Research at Unchained) have both predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the end of 2025.

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Hayes Buys Back ETH and Sets His Price Target

In a recent interview, Hayes revealed that he had repurchased some of the ETH he previously sold. “The chart shows it’s going higher, so you can’t fight the market,” he stated, adding that Ethereum could reach between $10,000 and $20,000 before the end of the current cycle.

When comparing Ethereum with Solana (SOL), Hayes said that his portfolio is currently overweight on ETH, highlighting his stronger confidence in Ethereum. He added, “My base case is that we are entering a massive bull market, and all financial assets tied to what Trump now considers important will see significant gains.”

Arthur Hayes just admitted he bought back ETH because “the chart says it’s going higher.”

He sees Ethereum running up to $20K this cycle.

When asked $ETH vs $SOL?

He’s overweight $ETH pic.twitter.com/Yd3q1t0aCe

— SamAlτcoin.eth (@SamAltcoin_eth) August 21, 2025

Last week, Hayes accumulated 1,500 ETH worth $8.4 million, alongside major positions in top DeFi tokens such as LDO, ETHFI, and PENDLE.

Ethereum vs. Solana: Which Will Perform Better?

Hayes believes that both Ethereum and Solana will see bullish momentum during this cycle, but ETH will likely deliver stronger overall performance. While Solana may show larger short-term moves, Hayes emphasized Ethereum’s long-term advantages.

Is ETH Close to a Breakout?

According to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum fell 0.64% in the past 24 hours to $4,289 but quickly recovered to trade at $4,306.

Strong demand for a spot ETH ETF and increasing institutional inflows have supported recent price gains. Companies like Bitmine and Sharplink Gaming have accumulated more than 2 million ETH since June, underscoring the growing interest in the asset.

Over the past 30 days, Ethereum has surged by more than 15%, reaching a local high of $4,700 and moving closer to its all-time high.

Arthur Hayes’ $20,000 prediction for Ethereum doesn’t seem far-fetched if macroeconomic conditions and ETF demand align. For now, the crypto community is watching Hayes’ wallet activity closely, as well as mid-cap tokens across the Ethereum ecosystem that could benefit from the next leg of the bull run.

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