Regulatory Clarity Accelerated Volume While Increasing Pressure

The acceleration in activity followed regulatory developments in the United States and Europe. The GENIUS Act in the U.S. and the EU’s MiCA framework reduced legal uncertainty for institutional participants. As decision cycles shortened, Ethereum became a more frequent choice for cross-border liquidity management. At the same time, rising usage intensified network congestion. Scalability limits and transaction costs are back at the center of the debate.

Ethereum Leads the Market as Competition Tightens

Ethereum maintains a 57% share of the stablecoin market. Roughly 60% of Tether’s USDT supply remains hosted on the network, reinforcing its dominant position. Tron follows with a 27% share, supported by lower transfer costs. This competitive pressure is expected to grow. In 2026, several European banks are preparing euro-denominated stablecoin initiatives that could challenge existing balances.

Where the Stablecoin Activity Is Actually Taking Place

The $8 trillion figure does not reflect activity on Ethereum’s mainnet alone. A growing portion of stablecoin transfers now occurs on Layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base. This shift suggests that the mainnet increasingly serves as a settlement and finality layer rather than a venue for high-frequency transactions.

In this structure, Ethereum functions as the system’s financial endpoint. While this supports gas revenues and validator incentives, it also makes long-term sustainability more dependent on the performance of the Layer-2 ecosystem.

Network Activity Hits Records as Resilience Is Tested

By the end of December, monthly active addresses reached 10.4 million, while daily transactions climbed to 2.23 million. The data indicates that network growth is driven by operational and institutional usage rather than speculation alone. Even so, how Ethereum manages this intensity over time remains unclear. Technical capacity and cost efficiency are set to remain critical themes throughout 2026.

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Early Bitcoin Investor Sales Increase Market Pressure

Peter Schiff stated that Bitcoin is finally experiencing its “IPO moment,” as long-term investors are cashing out amid sufficient market liquidity. According to Schiff, the transfer of BTC from long-term holders to weak hands sets the stage for larger future corrections. In October, whales sold more than 400,000 BTC, exerting significant selling pressure and pushing Bitcoin below $85,000. Moreover, ETF flows slowed down, further weakening risk appetite.

The term “IPO moment” reflects Bitcoin reaching a level of maturity where early investors can sell significant amounts for the first time. Some of these sales were strategic profit-taking by long-term portfolios, while blockchain regulations and macro risks also contributed to increased volatility.

High-Profile Investors Cash Out BTC Positions

Early Bitcoin investor Owen Gunden sold a total of 11,000 BTC during October and November, equivalent to about $1.3 billion, making it one of the largest individual cash-outs in the market. Robert Kiyosaki also sold his $2.25 million BTC holdings, purchased at around $6,000 per coin and sold near $90,000. He plans to channel the profits into income-generating businesses and may repurchase Bitcoin with positive cash flow in the future.

Analysts note that these large sales triggered chained liquidations in crypto derivatives markets. Consequently, short-term declines accelerated, placing the crypto market under significant pressure.

 Experts Predict Sharper Drops Due to “Weak Hands”

Bitfinex analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong for institutional investors. However, low conviction among retail traders poses a critical risk. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, warned that weak hands panic-selling could trigger up to a 70% decline in the next bear market. Current volatility is also negatively impacting overall market sentiment.

ETF demand, macro liquidity conditions, and institutional behavior will be decisive in this process, ultimately clarifying Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Despite strong fundamentals, short-term selling pressure persists. On the other hand, renewed institutional demand, stronger ETF flows, and improving macro conditions could support BTC prices. Still, the market remains vulnerable to potential panic sales by weak hands. As a result, investors are advised to focus more on risk management and strategic positioning.

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The 2020 Lubian Hack and Chen Zhi Connection

In 2020, the Lubian mining pool was targeted in a cyberattack, resulting in the theft of 127,000 BTC. Later, the stolen Bitcoins were linked to Cambodian businessman Chen Zhi. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) accuses Chen Zhi of running large-scale cryptocurrency fraud and money laundering operations. In this context, CVERC alleges that the U.S. may have indirectly supported the attack and disguised its seizure as a legitimate operation.

“This is a typical example of a state-level hacking organization orchestrating the theft while the ‘thieves clash among themselves,’” CVERC commented.

The CVERC report also stated, “The attack was carried out using advanced tools, suggesting a state-sponsored hacker group. The U.S. seizure may be part of a larger operation involving the same attackers.”

2024 Transfers and Blockchain Analysis

The stolen Bitcoin remained dormant for nearly four years. Subsequently, in mid-2024, they were quietly transferred to new wallets. Blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence later traced these wallets to the U.S. government. This development prompted CVERC to investigate U.S. involvement.

U.S. Response and International Tensions

The DOJ rejected China’s allegations, stating that the Bitcoin were part of Chen Zhi’s fraud and money laundering network, and that the seizure was a legitimate law enforcement operation.

The incident highlights rising tensions between the U.S. and China over cybersecurity and global control of digital assets. Cryptocurrencies are increasingly becoming a strategic tool of national power.

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Satoshi-Era Wallet Becomes Active After More Than a Decade

According to Whale Alert, the wallet’s unknown owner mined approximately 4,000 BTC between April and June 2009, just months after the Bitcoin network went live. Data from Nansen shows that the whale sent 150 BTC (worth over $16 million) in a single transaction on Thursday.

On-chain data from Mempool indicates the address may have once held as much as 7,850 BTC. The whale was last active in June 2011, when it consolidated all its Bitcoin into a single wallet. With Bitcoin currently trading around $110,604, the whale’s remaining holdings are estimated to be worth over $442 million.

Analysts Spot Growing Activity Among OG Bitcoin Whales

Independent blockchain analyst Emmett Gallic noted that this particular whale once held over 8,000 BTC across multiple addresses and has been gradually selling portions of its holdings for years.

He commented on X (formerly Twitter):

“A whale that once held 8,000 BTC has reactivated a Satoshi-era wallet. After today’s 150 BTC move, it’s now steadily selling down to 3,850 BTC. God-level DCA strategy.”

Blockchain data confirms that the address now holds roughly 3,850 BTC. Such on-chain movements often trigger speculation among investors about whether early holders are preparing to offload more coins into the market.

What Does This Mean for the Bitcoin Market?

In July, another early Bitcoin address holding 80,201 BTC became active for the first time in 14 years, transferring part of its funds to Galaxy Digital.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo observed in June that whales holding over 10,000 BTC have been consistently reducing their exposure since 2017.

However, experts told Cointelegraph in August that old whales cashing out shouldn’t be seen as a bearish signal. Instead, it often means that new institutional buyers are entering the market — a healthy sign of a maturing Bitcoin ecosystem.

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BitMine Adds 104K ETH Amid Market Weakness

Led by Tom Lee, BitMine Immersion Technologies treated the recent price correction as a strategic opportunity. According to Lookonchain, three new wallets accumulated assets from Kraken and BitGo within the past seven hours.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham confirmed that each wallet bought roughly $75 million worth of ETH, matching BitMine’s previous buying patterns on BitGo.

Although BitMine has not yet publicly confirmed the transactions, the similarity of wallet activity has once again drawn attention from the crypto market.

Treasury Surpasses 3 Million ETH

Earlier this week, BitMine also disclosed another large accumulation — 202,037 ETH purchased during the recent market dip. At that time, Tom Lee stated: “The crypto liquidation over the past few days pushed ETH prices lower, and BitMine took advantage of this pullback.”

BitMine’s total treasury has now surpassed 3 million ETH, representing half of all Ethereum held by public corporate treasuries. According to StrategicEthReserve, the combined corporate ETH reserves have reached 5.9 million ETH, valued at approximately $23.7 billion.

ETH Price Outlook and Analyst Expectations

ETH briefly dropped to $3,945 on Wednesday night, marking a 20% decline from its all-time high of $4,946. At press time, it had slightly recovered, trading just above $4,000.

Despite the decline, analysts remain optimistic. Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes both reiterated their predictions that Ethereum could reach $10,000 by year’s end.

Crypto analyst Rekt Fencer commented, “Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 market structure,” adding that “$15,000 ETH is still on the table this cycle.” Meanwhile, Crypto Bullet compared Bitcoin’s 2024 chart patterns to Ether’s 2025 structure, suggesting ETH could reach $6,000–$7,000 later this year.

Institutional accumulation continues to strengthen market confidence as major digital asset treasuries like BitMine keep buying the dip.

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As of August 2025, the top 10 ETH addresses hold roughly 70% of the 120.7 million circulating ETH. However, most belong to staking contracts, exchanges, or institutional funds rather than individual whales.  

The Beacon Deposit Contract alone holds 65.88 million ETH, representing 54.5% of the total supply. Validators must wait a set period to withdraw ETH, making this contract a protocol-controlled treasury rather than a personal wallet.  

The Wrapped Ether (WETH) contract also ranks high, holding 2.26 million ETH. These figures highlight the importance of staking and DeFi usage in the Ethereum ecosystem.  

Institutional and Individual ETH Holders  

Exchanges like Coinbase hold 4.93 million ETH, Binance 4.23 million, Bitfinex 3.28 million, Robinhood 1.66 million, and Upbit 1.36 million. These addresses actively support exchange liquidity and staking derivatives.  

Institutional investors are also treating ETH as a treasury asset. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) controls 3 million ETH, Grayscale ETHE manages 1.13 million, and Fidelity’s FETH oversees $1.4 billion in ETH. Together, these institutions control over 5 million ETH, reshaping the Ethereum ownership landscape.  

Individual holders include Vitalik Buterin with 250–280k ETH, Joseph Lubin around 500k ETH, and the Winklevoss twins 150–200k ETH. These numbers emphasize the contrast between corporate and personal ETH ownership.  

Over 130 million addresses exist on Ethereum, but fewer than 1.3 million hold at least one ETH. Ownership is concentrated, with most assets in staking, exchanges, and institutional funds.  

On-chain data confirms Ethereum has moved from individual whales to institutional and protocol-based players. This trend highlights the ecosystem’s corporate depth and the strength of staking infrastructure.  

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Cliff unlocks usually involve large, one-time token releases, often affecting the market due to supply shocks. On the other hand, linear unlocks distribute tokens gradually, reducing sudden market impact. This method smooths out supply increases and stabilizes trading activity. 

Major projects include Sui, Fasttoken (FTN), Arbitrum (ARB), and Aptos (APT). Sui will release $153 million in September, with only 35.1% of its total supply currently circulated. This unlock could have a significant market effect. 

Leading Projects and Token Release Amounts 

FTN follows with $90 million in token unlocks. Unlike Sui, FTN has already released over 96% of its supply, so the impact will be smaller. Aptos plans to unlock nearly $50 million, while Arbitrum will release approximately $48 million next month. 

Other notable unlocks include Starknet with $16.85 million and Sei with $16.49 million. ZK and Immutable will release $10.7 million and $13.4 million, respectively. These releases influence both short-term market movements and long-term planning. 

Vincent Kadar, CEO of Polymath, stated that token unlocks no longer create “unlock anxiety” among investors. Sophisticated investors now focus on project economics, adoption, governance transparency, and long-term alignment. 

Kadar emphasized that as blockchain projects integrate with public markets, token unlocks gain importance not just for supply but also for long-term investor confidence. Overall, the market increasingly values fundamentals over short-term shocks. 

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Sharp Drop in Solana DEX Users 

According to Dune Analytics, daily Solana DEX users numbered over 8 million last October, but now they fall below 1 million. Charts indicate an almost 90% drop over a year. This suggests investors left the network due to lack of profit opportunities. Investor Qwerty commented, “Everyone left the casino or lost it all. wild chart.” 

Logically, fewer investors should lead to lower trading volume. However, DefiLlama data shows daily volume still ranges from $3 to $5 billion. This inconsistency fuels doubts about bot dominance. Investor NoCapMat.eth said, “Knowing how many farming and volume bots operate 24/7, the drop in active users is shocking.” 

According to CoinGecko, Solana’s most popular tokens performed negatively since the start of the year. Tokens like TRUMP, MELANIA, LIBRA, and YZY initially attracted high interest but later caused distrust. Retail users shifted to other chains or exited completely. 

Bullish Perspective and On-Chain Health 

Optimistic analysts argue the sharp drop may signal a market bottom. Some claim the seven-million wallet decline reflects bot removal rather than real user exit. With bot addresses no longer profitable, the environment becomes fairer for regular users. Analysts view this as a healthy development for long-term growth. 

Messari analyst Matthew Nay questioned the shocking data but noted Solana’s on-chain health remains stable. Nay said, “Transactions, fee payers, and signers remain steady. The decline is not as severe as charts suggest.” 

Debates around Solana’s on-chain metrics reflect the network’s complexity. Meanwhile, SOL rose over 35% in August, trading above $210. The altcoin still shows bullish trends, sustaining investor interest. 

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Chris Larsen Transferred $175 Million in XRP 

Blockchain analysis platform ZachXBT detected that Larsen moved a total of 50 million XRP across four different wallets between July 17-23. Larsen sent about 40 million XRP to known addresses belonging to crypto exchanges and third-party services. Additionally, he distributed 10 million XRP evenly between two new wallets. 

Despite this, Larsen’s wallets still hold 2.81 billion XRP, approximately $8.4 billion worth of tokens. XRP is a key asset used in Ripple cross-border payment network and is actively traded in the market. Recently, XRP’s price surged to $3.40 before experiencing a correction exceeding 12%. Larsen’s transfers to exchanges are generally interpreted as an intention to cash out. His XRP holdings represent approximately 4.6% of the total market capitalization, and a sale of this magnitude could create significant selling pressure in the market.

Increase in Ripple XRP Fraud Warnings 

These large transfers by Larsen come at a critical time when XRP-based scams are on the rise. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse warned users on X about fake XRP campaigns. 

Garlinghouse pointed out that scammers target users with fake giveaways and phishing attacks on YouTube. Fraudsters impersonate Ripple officials using deepfake videos and fake airdrops to steal wallet information, leading to loss of assets. 

Ripple official account also reminded: 

“Ripple or our executives will never ask you to send XRP. Be cautious.” 

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According to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, Qwatio opened $55 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC), $36 million worth of Ethereum, and $7.3 million worth of Fartcoin positions. All of these positions were short. However, the market’s sharp rise quickly liquidated the trader’s positions associated with wallet code 0x916E. 

Detailed Losses According to Lookonchain Data 

Lookonchain revealed that Qwatio first lost 16.28 million USDC. Then, to increase his leveraged position, he deposited another 10 million USDC to Hyperliquid. Yet, the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices turned his short-selling strategy into a disaster. 

Gambler @qwatio's massive short positions worth $334M were fully liquidated in just 3 hours, including: 1,743 $BTC ($211M), 33,743 $ETH ($102.3M), and 15M $FARTCOIN ($20.6M).

His wallet (0x916E) is now down nearly $25.84M in total losses. https://t.co/RwVCmLe4rK pic.twitter.com/Ed1jXyaYEY

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 14, 2025

Qwatio’s total $334 million short position was liquidated within just 3 hours. The liquidations included 1,743 Bitcoins valued at $211 million, 33,743 Ethereum worth $102.3 million, and 15 million Fartcoins worth $20.6 million. These liquidations resulted in a total loss of $25.8 million. 

Crypto analytics platform EmberCN highlighted that the trader’s previous $26 million profit was nearly wiped out by these two short positions. 

Profits During Trump Era and Subsequent Decline 

Qwatio’s success started with “long” trades opened before former US President Donald Trump’s “crypto reserve” announcement in March 2025. During this period, the trader earned $6.8 million and made another $3.5 million from MELANIA coin. 

However, at the end of June, he experienced 8 liquidations, losing $12.5 million. With the recent loss, his total losses have approached $38 million. 

Other Leveraged Traders Also Impacted 

Bitcoin’s rapid rise affected not only Qwatio but many traders with short positions. Approximately $600 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. 

One of them was James Wynn. Wynn opened a short position betting Bitcoin would fall but lost his entire $100 million investment. This highlights the risks traders face when using high leverage in volatile markets. 

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