Data shows that most airdropped tokens suffer significant value loss post-launch. Cryptocurrency trader Didi’s analysis indicates that nearly all airdrops received over the past year traded below their TGE value. Examples are striking: M3M3 dropped 99.64%, Elixir fell 99.50%, and USUAL declined 97.67%. Even major projects were hit: Magic Eden -96.6%, Jupiter -75.9%, and Monad -39.13%. Only Avantis saw a 30.4% gain above its TGE price.

Didi summarizes the situation:

“Out of 30 airdrops I’ve received since Dec 2024, only one trades slightly above TGE price. Let’s be honest: we’re all here to make money.”

Glassnode, Dune Analytics, and private market reports indicate:

• Over 84% of tokens lost value in the first week after TGE.

• Average loss in the first 30 days ranged between 30–55%.

• Even major projects faced limited liquidity due to early selling pressure.

Trends and Insights

Some airdrops in 2025 delivered notable gains for investors. The most prominent example was Pudgy Penguins ($PENGU), which attracted significant attention and short-term value increase. However, such cases were rare; most tokens lost value post-launch.

Memento Research’s 2025 study supports these findings. Among 118 token launches, 84.7% traded below TGE value. About 65% lost half their value, and more than half dropped 70% or more. Projects with high initial FDV performed particularly poorly; none of the 28 launches with FDV above $1 billion remain profitable.

The report highlights that lower FDV tokens had better performance:

“The cheapest launches had a meaningful survival rate (40% green) with median losses around -26%. Mid and high-tier launches were almost entirely repriced to the floor, with losses around -70% to -83%.”

Airdrop Complexity and Waning Interest

Investor interest in airdrops fell in 2025 not only due to price pressure but also increasingly complex distribution mechanics. Previously, claiming an airdrop might have required connecting a wallet, but now projects impose longer engagement, technical requirements, registration windows, and vesting schedules.

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Which Strategy Makes Sense?

• Short-Term Selling: Safer for small investors seeking to avoid post-TGE price drops.

• Long-Term Holding: Risky but potentially rewarding for those confident in the project’s ecosystem and future gains.

Conclusion

Data from 2025 shows most airdropped tokens lose value after launch, and distribution mechanics have grown increasingly complex. Investors should prioritize short-term liquidity and capital preservation.

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Blockchain Center defines the altseason criterion as 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Altseason periods are known for altcoins delivering rapid gains compared to Bitcoin during bull markets. However, the exact timing of this year’s altseason is still uncertain. 

Altcoin Market on the Rise 

The total altcoin market cap is approaching its all-time high from 2021, drawing close attention from traders. Crypto analyst “Daan Crypto Trades” stated that when altcoins return to price discovery, excitement across the market will increase. This trend is also expected to accelerate new investor participation. Karan Singh Arora noted that the altseason index is at its highest in nine months, and investors are turning back to risk-taking. 

According to TradingView, the total altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins reached $1.63 trillion, approaching $1.64 trillion in November 2024 and $1.7 trillion in November 2021. Ash Crypto predicts that altcoins will show parabolic moves in the third phase of altseason. 

Top Performing Altcoins 

In the last 24 hours, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Avalanche (AVAX) showed the best performance. DOGE rose 5% to surpass $0.25, while AVAX gained 11% to reach $29, its highest since January. Hyperliquid (HYPE), Stellar (XLM), Litecoin (LTC), and Toncoin (TON) also saw gains above 3%. ACE coin, PIXEL, and NMR increased over 20%, making the altcoin market attractive for investors again. 

This altcoin rally is boosting risk appetite and encouraging investors to be more active. As the market continues to recover, investors are preparing to seize new opportunities, positioning altcoins for market leadership in the remaining months of the year. 

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ETH is currently trading at $4,376, marking a 197% increase from its April bottom. Traders often monitor whale activity as a market signal. Large-scale selling usually signals weakness, while accumulation points to bullish expectations. 

Not all whales timed the market correctly. Some sold close to the bottom and later re-entered at higher levels. For instance, on May 22 a wallet bought 1,425 ETH for $3.8 million after selling 2,522 ETH for $3.9 million in April. 

ETF Inflows and Treasury Purchases 

Ethereum’s rally has been largely supported by ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations. In June, Sharplink Gaming and BitMine Immersion Technologies made their first ETH purchases, during a period when ETH traded between $2,228 and $2,813. 

BitMine now holds $8.22 billion worth of ETH, making it the largest ETH treasury. Sharplink Gaming follows with $3.69 billion. Altogether, ETH treasuries own $15.83 billion in ETH, representing about 2.97% of the total supply. 

August proved strong for Ethereum ETFs, which recorded $3.87 billion in inflows. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in outflows. Meanwhile, some institutions shifted back to BTC. Arkham reported that ETFs sold $135 million in ETH while buying $332 million in BTC. 

Ethereum broke past its 2021 all-time high of $4,878, climbing to $4,934 on August 24. Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell projects ETH could reach between $12,000 and $15,000 by year-end. On the other hand, some experts believe market focus will eventually return to Bitcoin 

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Investors have once again focused on the possibility of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This development boosted interest in digital assets. Ethereum showed a strong recovery, climbing above the $2,590 level, while Dogecoin reached $0.171, regaining the ground it had lost over the past month. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded at $109,200, recording a gain of over 3% on the day. It is now just 2% away from its all-time high of $111,814. 

Altcoin Rally Triggered by Ethereum and Dogecoin Surge 

The rise in the altcoin market wasn’t limited to prices alone. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, noted that investor interest is shifting towards Ethereum and other altcoins. According to Pandl, recently approved crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) have facilitated institutional capital flowing into the altcoin market. 

Increasing regulatory clarity and interest from traditional financial institutions are boosting confidence in crypto. Pandl stated that many tokens could see new highs in the second half of the year. 

Meanwhile, Ripple has applied for a national banking license with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The move is seen as an effort to expand crypto payment systems within a legal framework. 

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Revive Crypto Momentum 

Investors remain focused on potential moves from the central bank. Recent dovish remarks have raised hopes that the Fed may opt for rate cuts. This expectation has positively impacted not only crypto but also the stock markets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes closed the day with slight gains. 

However, global economic uncertainties persist. While the new trade agreement signed by U.S. President Trump with Vietnam was positively received, no progress was made in negotiations with China. Additionally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to dominate headlines. 

Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs declined on Tuesday. The 15-day streak of positive inflows came to a halt, which analysts interpret as profit-taking. 

Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, linked the rally to positive market sentiment. “Crypto typically gains strength through uncertainty and liquidity,” said DiPasquale, emphasizing that traders are ignoring macro risks and focusing on the possibility of looser monetary policy. 

In conclusion, investors continue to highlight the upward potential in the crypto market. 

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Crypto commentator Mister Crypto pointed to BlockchainCenter.net‘s altcoin vs. Bitcoin dominance chart, noting a breakout just under the 29 level. This move could signal a shift away from Bitcoin dominance, paving the way for altcoins to outperform.

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When the index is below 25, it’s considered Bitcoin Season; when it’s above 75, Altcoin Season. The current breakout indicates rising altcoin momentum, possibly leading to a market environment favoring riskier crypto assets.

This Altseason Might Be Different

Not everyone is sold on the idea. Analyst 2Lambroz noted that while an Altseason may be underway, investor sentiment and market dynamics have changed. There is no dominant retail narrative, and traders are cycling capital quickly without long-term commitment.

In contrast, technical trader Moustache remains optimistic. He shared historical chart patterns from 2016 and 2020, suggesting Altseason 2025 has officially begun based on similar market structures.

Still, skeptics like Rekt Fencer caution that most altcoins remain down over 90% from December levels. A modest 10% bounce this week, he argued, has caused overexcitement. “This is the ALTSEASON we’ve all been waiting for,” he joked sarcastically.

Global Optimism Fuels Crypto Surge

Crypto markets surged over the weekend, driven by renewed global optimism. Bitcoin climbed to $104,900, just 4% shy of its all-time high, following positive U.S.-China trade developments and easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

Ethereum (ETH) and memecoins rallied sharply, with investors returning to risk assets. “Markets gained clarity, and that boosted confidence,” said Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research.

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