Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas stated that the likelihood of Litecoin ETF approval in 2025 is higher than other crypto ETFs. They estimate approval chances of 65% for XRP, 70% for Solana, and 75% for Dogecoin ETFs.

Litecoin Approval Process May Be Easier

Developed in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, Litecoin shares a similar proof-of-work consensus mechanism with Bitcoin.

Posting on X, Seyffart and Balchunas stated that Litecoin’s path to SEC approval could be smoother than others. This is because the S-1 and 19b-4 filing forms have already been submitted and acknowledged. Additionally, the SEC is likely to view Litecoin as a commodity.

Strong Demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

The rising demand for crypto ETFs is supported by the strong performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. According to Farside Investors data, spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, have recorded $40.7 billion in net inflows, while Ether ETFs, introduced in July 2024, have seen $3.18 billion in inflows.

However, Seyffart noted that a Litecoin ETF might not attract such high demand but could still be profitable for fund issuers. In some cases, even $50 million in inflows could be sufficient for fund companies.

According to Seyffart’s data, the SEC is expected to make its final decision on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs between October 2 and October 18. He also suggested that a Litecoin ETF could launch even before these dates.

More Crypto ETF Filings Expected Beyond Litecoin

ETF applications for Hedera and Polkadot have also been submitted by Canary Capital and 21Shares. However, Seyffart and Balchunas have not yet provided any approval probability estimates for these ETFs.

Seyffart predicted that U.S.-based ETF issuers would adopt a “spaghetti cannon approach,” filing multiple crypto ETF applications to see which ones get approved.

Balchunas noted that, before Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, the approval odds for all crypto ETFs—except Litecoin—were below 5%.

Regulatory Uncertainty Persists for XRP and Solana

Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainties surrounding the security status of Solana and XRP remain. Seyffart stated that an XRP ETF is unlikely to be approved until the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple is fully resolved.

Ripple secured a partial victory in August 2023 when the court ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets. However, the SEC appealed this decision, arguing that Ripple violated securities laws when selling XRP to retail investors.

These actions were taken under the SEC leadership of Gary Gensler. Ripple now hopes that the new SEC leadership, currently headed by Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, will drop the enforcement case.

Seyffart also noted that Solana’s security status must be clarified before the SEC can assess it under a “commodities ETF framework.”

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