The strategist, who has recently leaned toward bearish outlooks, argued that Bitcoin’s current technical structure reflects one of the weakest setups in its history. His remarks added fuel to an already cautious market environment, drawing sharp reactions from investors and analysts alike.

The “Unlimited Crypto Supply” Argument

A central pillar of McGlone’s thesis is the rapid expansion of the broader digital asset market. He grouped Bitcoin alongside thousands of other crypto assets, emphasizing what he described as an effectively “unlimited supply” of cryptocurrencies. According to his view, the continuous influx of new tokens dilutes value and creates structural pressure across the asset class.

This framing has sparked criticism from Bitcoin proponents who highlight its fixed 21 million supply cap as a defining feature. Meanwhile, some macro-focused observers argue that capital fragmentation across an expanding token universe may indeed weaken overall pricing power.

Was 2024 Bitcoin the Peak?

McGlone also suggested that Bitcoin’s 2024 performance may represent the high-water mark for the current cycle. He compared present market dynamics to historic speculative episodes, drawing parallels to the Tulip Mania period as a cautionary analogy.

Such comparisons revive a long-standing question within financial markets: Is Bitcoin a legitimate store of value, or does it resemble a speculative bubble vulnerable to sharp correction? While McGlone’s position is clearly cautious, other strategists participating in the discussion pushed back, emphasizing Bitcoin’s long-term structural narrative.

A Market Divided

The $10,000 forecast, combined with concerns over deteriorating technical indicators, has contributed to a more defensive tone among some market participants. At the same time, supporters point to ongoing adoption trends, institutional involvement, and Bitcoin’s supply mechanics as reasons to challenge an overly pessimistic outlook.

What remains clear is that consensus is absent. The intensity of the debate itself suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching a pivotal phase, where macro forces, technical signals, and investor conviction collide.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Show Remarkable Resilience

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to demonstrate exceptional strength, even as Bitcoin prices retreat. A key example is BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which recently reached a peak of $100 billion in assets under management before declining alongside the broader market.

Following the downturn, IBIT’s assets fell to roughly $60 billion. However, Balchunas emphasizes that this figure remains extraordinary for an ETF with a lifespan of only around 500 days. According to his assessment, even if the fund were to remain at the $60 billion level for the next three years, it would still retain its position as the fastest ETF in history to reach that scale.

This perspective underscores how rapidly institutional exposure to Bitcoin has developed, regardless of near-term price fluctuations.

Investor Conviction Remains Intact

One of the most telling indicators comes from ETF flow data. Balchunas notes that total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs amount to only about 6% of assets, meaning approximately 94% of investors have chosen to hold their positions.

This is particularly notable given that Bitcoin has experienced a price decline of roughly 40%, placing a significant portion of investors in unrealized loss territory. Despite this, the majority of ETF holders have resisted the urge to exit. Such behavior suggests that these participants are operating with a long-term investment horizon rather than reacting to short-term market noise.

From an institutional standpoint, this kind of holding pattern is often associated with confidence in the asset’s broader thesis rather than speculative trading.

A Wry Reaction From Binance’s Founder

Balchunas’s bullish-leaning interpretation did not go unnoticed within the crypto industry. Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, responded publicly to the commentary, expressing mild surprise at hearing such an optimistic take from a Bloomberg analyst.

Zhao humorously referenced the frequent “Bitcoin is dead” narrative often seen in traditional media, implying that the tone of this assessment marked a notable departure from that pattern.

Bigger Picture: Volatility vs. Structure

While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, ETF data suggests that institutional conviction has not materially weakened. The contrast between short-term price pressure and long-term capital commitment continues to define the current market landscape, keeping the broader bull case firmly in discussion.

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Bitcoin Faces Renewed “Market Top” Debate

Mike McGlone, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, has adopted a notably cautious tone when assessing Bitcoin’s recent price behavior. According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s failure to sustain a move above the $100,000 level could represent an important warning sign for the market. He suggests that this rejection may point to the formation of a cyclical peak rather than a temporary pause.

McGlone also emphasizes Bitcoin’s continued sensitivity to equity market volatility. This strong correlation, in his view, increases downside risk during periods of financial stress. As a result, he argues that Bitcoin may have already established its high for the year, making a more restrained short-term price structure increasingly likely.

Signs of Overheating in Commodity Markets

Beyond digital assets, McGlone highlights growing concerns within traditional commodity markets. He points to signs of overheating in silver and copper, noting that rapid price appreciation in these assets raises questions about sustainability. In the case of gold, McGlone finds the current rally particularly unsettling, given that it is occurring during a period of relatively low equity market volatility.

Within this macro environment, McGlone identifies U.S. Treasury bonds as the most reliable safe-haven asset. He suggests that fixed income markets could present one of the most compelling opportunities in the year ahead, particularly if economic uncertainty intensifies.

Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy Concerns

Another market commentator, James Lavish, directs attention toward the global debt cycle and ongoing currency debasement. Lavish argues that Japan’s apparent loss of control over long-term government bond yields serves as a critical warning for global markets.

He believes the U.S. Treasury will ultimately intervene to protect its interests, a move that would likely result in further monetary expansion. While Lavish expects Bitcoin to reflect these dynamics over the long term, he maintains that, in the near term, the asset continues to be treated primarily as a high-risk investment.

Psychological Pressure Continues in Bitcoin Markets

CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger focuses on sentiment within the Bitcoin market itself. He describes Bitcoin as being trapped within a defined trading range, undergoing what he calls a “time-based capitulation.” According to Weisberger, the aftershocks from volatility experienced in October have yet to fully dissipate, leaving the market in need of a new narrative.

Weisberger also notes that supply-demand dynamics in silver may act as a leading indicator for Bitcoin. However, he warns that investor impatience is adding short-term pressure. He concludes that uncertainties such as a potential government shutdown disproportionately affect crypto markets, given the sector’s ongoing need for regulatory clarity.

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McGlone’s projections extend beyond digital assets, offering a broader perspective on how macroeconomic pressures could reshape multiple asset classes over the coming years.

Warning Signs for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory

According to McGlone, Bitcoin could face substantial downside risk in 2026. Under his base-case scenario, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may retreat to the $50,000 level. In a more adverse global environment, however, he suggests that losses could deepen significantly, with prices potentially revisiting the $10,000 range—implying a drawdown of up to 90% from higher levels.

This bearish outlook is not driven solely by macroeconomic headwinds. McGlone emphasizes that Bitcoin’s internal competitive landscape has changed dramatically. While Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency when it launched in 2009, it now competes with millions of digital assets, which may dilute its long-term value proposition.

Bitcoin Versus Gold: A Structural Comparison

A key element of McGlone’s analysis involves comparing Bitcoin to gold as a store of value. He points out that gold faces only a limited number of direct competitors—primarily silver, platinum, and palladium. This relatively narrow competitive field has helped gold maintain its status as a stable reserve asset over time.

Bitcoin, by contrast, operates in a rapidly expanding digital ecosystem, where constant innovation and token proliferation may apply sustained pressure on its dominance in the years ahead.

A Brighter Outlook for Gold

While his Bitcoin outlook remains cautious, McGlone is notably more optimistic about gold. He projects that gold prices could rise by approximately 10% by 2026, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce.

He also suggests that gold’s relative strength may serve as an early indicator of stress in risk assets. Historically, periods of strong gold performance have coincided with corrections in equity markets.

A Challenging Year Across Asset Classes

Looking beyond Bitcoin and gold, McGlone believes 2026 could be a difficult year for most asset classes. He warns of potential corrections in U.S. equities and expects continued pressure on commodities such as oil, copper, silver, and other risk-sensitive assets.

Taken together, these projections highlight the importance of disciplined risk management as markets approach a potentially volatile phase.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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“Bit-Dog” Comment and Signs of a Cycle Peak

During a recent appearance, McGlone described Bitcoin’s current performance as a “Bit-Dog,” suggesting that the asset has fallen short of expectations. According to him, the rally seen in previous months was fueled by strong ETF inflows, the halving cycle, and positive sentiment from the Trump administration. However, he believes these catalysts have already run their course, leaving the market in a typical post-peak correction phase.

McGlone also noted that the weakness is not limited to Bitcoin alone. The broader crypto market has mirrored this decline, with the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index falling by 21% in recent weeks—an indicator he considers consistent with a fading bullish trend.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin

While Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 10% lower on a year-to-date basis, McGlone emphasized that the more important question is the direction of the next major move. He pointed out that the persistently low volatility in equity markets, reflected in the subdued VIX index, could signal an increasing shift toward risk aversion heading into year-end.

From a technical perspective, McGlone highlighted two crucial levels:

• Support: $84,000

• Resistance: $94,000

He noted that Bitcoin was unable to hold the psychological level of $100,000 during the latest pullback, warning that a break below $84,000 could open the door to a more pronounced downturn.

The $50,000 Scenario Remains on the Table

Contrary to broader market expectations of a rebound, McGlone argued that the probability of Bitcoin moving lower outweighs the likelihood of a renewed uptrend. In his view, a drop toward $50,000 becomes increasingly possible if the $84,000 support level fails.

He emphasized that the $50,000 region represents a historically significant zone, dating back to the 2020–2021 cycle, and remains a decisive long-term support area for market participants.

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Market Mood Turns Dark: “Sentiment Is at Rock Bottom”

Investor sentiment has deteriorated rapidly, according to analyst and fund manager James Lavish. Summarizing the atmosphere across the market, Lavish noted a dramatic erosion in investor confidence. He highlighted that long-term Bitcoin holders have collectively sold more than 400,000 BTC over the past month.

Despite this significant sell-off, Bitcoin has managed to remain above the $100,000 mark—a sign that buying pressure still exists even under prevailing market stress. Nevertheless, Lavish emphasized that the mood has shifted decisively toward pessimism.

McGlone takes this interpretation further. In his view, Bitcoin is losing grip on several key technical zones, increasing the likelihood of deeper declines.

Below the 200-Day Moving Average: “$110,000 Has Turned Into Resistance”

McGlone pointed out that early on Monday, November 3, during U.S. trading hours, Bitcoin opened below its 200-day moving average—a crucial level closely watched by traders. According to him, this area, now situated near $110,000, has flipped from support into a firm resistance zone.

Because of this technical breakdown, McGlone warned that Bitcoin may struggle to hold its current range. He cautioned investors with a direct statement:

“In my view, Bitcoin’s probability of remaining above $100,000 is weakening. By Monday morning, November 10, it would not be surprising to see Bitcoin trading below the $100,000 threshold.”

Pressure Extends Beyond Bitcoin: Crypto Market Underperforms Traditional Assets

McGlone also broadened his analysis to encompass the wider digital asset market. Strategy-focused crypto products have suffered sharp losses, and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has fallen 1% since the beginning of 2025.

This performance stands in stark contrast to traditional equities. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 16%, underscoring how significantly crypto has lagged behind conventional financial markets this year.

As analysts continue to scrutinize the technical and macroeconomic landscape, McGlone’s remarks serve as a reminder that Bitcoin remains highly vulnerable in the short term—even as long-term investors debate whether current levels represent risk or opportunity.

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New Bitcoin ETFs Bring Crypto Wealth to Wall Street

A regulatory change this summer allowed large investors to exchange Bitcoin for ETF shares. Known as an “in-kind transaction,” this process is generally tax-neutral, meaning no cash changes hands and no sale is recorded.

As a result, volatile digital assets now appear as a line item on brokerage statements, making it easier to use as collateral, borrow against, or include in estate plans. Robbie Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, stated that the firm has already facilitated over $3 billion in such conversions.

Liquidity provider Galaxy Digital has processed a few similar conversions, while Bitwise Asset Management President Teddy Fusaro noted that investor inquiries for ETF conversions arrive daily.

Bitcoin Whales Discover Traditional Finance Convenience

BlackRock Mitchnick, large Bitcoin holders are realizing the benefits of keeping exposure within their existing private banking or wealth management platforms. Born as a decentralized alternative to traditional finance, Bitcoin is now being gradually absorbed into regulated financial systems.

By exchanging Bitcoin for ETF shares, investors keep their cryptocurrency stake. This also allows them to pledge holdings as collateral, borrow against them, or include them in estate plans — tasks that are risky or cumbersome in private wallets.The ETF wrapper adds legitimacy and ease, turning previously off-grid wealth into assets that institutions can work with.

Fusaro highlighted the advantage for investors:

“An investor might have a $1 million portfolio on a wealth-management platform and $5 million worth of Bitcoin on a ledger. Moving Bitcoin into an ETF allows the platform to recognize them as a $6 million client, unlocking higher-tier services.”

Wall Street and Bitcoin Lines Blur

Mitchnick expects ETF conversions and bank participation to grow rapidly as regulations become clearer. Currently, some banks play a limited role, but they are increasingly involved in the ETF creation process.

“Some investors are going all-in, consolidating their holdings entirely within ETFs, as it’s the easiest way to manage their wealth,” Mitchnick added.

Wes Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect, which specializes in tax-aware ETFs, commented:

“Life is just easier in TradFi. Integration, access, and security have been perfected over a century. Ironically, Bitcoin was born to escape traditional finance, and now its largest holders are returning.”

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Are DOGE ETF and XRP ETF Launching at the Same Time?

According to Balchunas, the Doge ETF and spot XRP ETF are among the products approved under the same prospectus. In particular, the spot XRP ETF, which will be launched under the 40 Act framework, aims to provide investors with a more secure product within a regulatory framework.

This step could open the door to a new era for both meme coins and XRP, which has long been at the center of regulatory debates.

As of now, the Doge ETF $DOJE is slated for Thursday launch, as is a 40 Act spot XRP ETF $XRPR (which was in the same prospectus that went effective, Trump and Bonk also in there too, but no word on launch date for those yet) https://t.co/q20takMsAe

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 15, 2025

Trump and Bonk ETFs Also on the Launch Calendar

Balchunas also noted that the same prospectus includes Trump and Bonk ETFs, though no specific launch date has been announced for these products yet. This suggests that more ETFs based on different crypto assets could be offered to investors in the future.

Is a New Era Beginning for Crypto ETFs?

Recently, the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors to access crypto. Now, similar steps are being taken for Dogecoin and XRP.

This development shows that crypto ETF products are becoming increasingly diversified and starting to appeal to a broader audience in the market. If demand proves strong, it would not be surprising to see other altcoin ETFs come to the forefront in the near future.

This content is not investment advice. Markets involve high risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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All Eyes on the SEC For Altcoin ETFs

For crypto investors, the launch of altcoin ETFs has long been one of the most anticipated developments. Despite the SEC’s historical hesitations and strict regulatory stance, industry experts suggest the agency may finally be prepared to give approval to certain well-established projects.

Seyffart’s List of Altcoin ETF Candidates

According to Seyffart, several altcoins appear to meet the SEC’s listing standards. These include Chainlink (LINK), Stellar (XLM), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Avalanche (AVAX), Litecoin (LTC) and Polkadot (DOT). Each of these projects has proven technical foundations and sufficient trading activity to make the cut.

In addition, long-standing names such as XRP, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) stand out thanks to their deep liquidity and well-developed derivatives markets, which strengthen their positions as strong contenders.

The Strongest Trio: XRP, Solana, and Cardano

Among all the potential candidates, Seyffart singled outXRP, Solana, and Cardano as the most likely to secure SEC approval first. Their market maturity, high liquidity, and strong investor interest put them ahead of the pack.

As he emphasized: “The probability of a spot ETF launch is highest for XRP, Solana, and Cardano.”

Ethereum ETFs and the Role of Staking

Seyffart also touched upon Ethereum-based ETFs. He argued that if staking is officially allowed within these products, demand could rise sharply, creating a significant shift in investor appetite for ETH ETFs.

Signs of an “Altcoin Season”

The Bloomberg analyst further noted that the crypto market is already in the midst of an “altcoin season.” However, he warned that this cycle is not identical to previous ones and stressed that altcoin ETFs are unlikely to generate the same level of market impact as Bitcoin ETFs did.

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Delay Confirmed For Ethereum Staking And XRP ETFs

In an announcement on May 20, the SEC officially postponed its decision regarding Bitwise’s proposal to add staking to its Ethereum (ETH) ETF and Grayscale’s application for an XRP ETF. Both delays extend the review period by an additional 45 days, allowing the agency more time to assess the proposals under regulatory frameworks.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

According to the filing, the SEC requires further analysis and is soliciting public comments on Grayscale’s XRP and Bitwise’s Solana (SOL) tracking funds. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented on X (formerly Twitter) that these delays are “absolutely expected,” citing that the SEC usually exhausts the full review window for such applications.

Litecoin ETF Gathers Momentum Among Analysts

While most altcoin-based ETF applications are likely to see similar delays, Seyffart highlighted Litecoin (LTC) as having “a higher likelihood vs others of getting approved first.” With multiple XRP ETP filings approaching decision dates in the coming days, analysts expect any early approvals to emerge in late June or early Q3 — though early Q4 seems more probable.

Several major ETF filings, including those linked to Polkadot (DOT), are due in June, such as Grayscale’s proposal by June 11 and 21Shares’ filing by June 24.

The recent wave of ETF applications comes amid changing tides at the SEC, following the resignation of former chair Gary Gensler. His tenure, marked by over 100 enforcement actions against crypto projects, has now given way to a perceived more crypto-friendly atmosphere, with multiple legal cases against firms like Gemini and Cumberland DRW being dropped.

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