Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Pressure Amid High Interest Rates

Yeliz Akmaca — Sun, 21 Dec 2025 13:00:14 +0000

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasizes that Bitcoin recent stagnant trend is not unusual. According to Cowen, current market conditions closely resemble those seen in 2019. High interest rates, weak risk appetite, and declining retail investor interest are strengthening bear market dynamics for Bitcoin.

Market Analysis and Historical Parallels

Cowen evaluates Bitcoin’s decline through the lens of the four-year cycle theory and macroeconomic factors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter following halving events. Previous cycles in 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle confirm this trend. However, Cowen highlights that this cycle is also influenced by macro conditions similar to 2019.

According to Cowen, the return-on-investment (ROI) curve from the bottom mirrors prior cycles. The 2016–2017 cycle lasted roughly 1,067 days, 2020–2021 about 1,059 days, and the current cycle around 1,062 days, showing Bitcoin’s cyclicality and historical price behavior remain relevant.

Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average

Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s inability to stay above its 50-week moving average (~$103,000) for several weeks would signal a key market pattern. Historically, similar behavior marked the 2021 peak.

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Retail Investor Apathy

Cowen highlights that the lack of an altcoin season underscores reduced retail participation. Social interest and investor behavior mirror the 2019 scenario, suggesting patience is crucial.

He also recalls that BTC peaked near the end of monetary tightening in 2019, followed by a weak period. Today, high interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and even if rates start falling, Bitcoin may not experience an immediate rebound.

Long-Term Opportunities

By analyzing past cycles, Cowen points out that patient investors often profit in bear markets. For example, early investors in the 2017 and 2021 cycles gained significant long-term returns despite missing short-term peaks. Similarly, investors who remain patient toward 2026 may find opportunities in Bitcoin.

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