What Is the 4-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin four-year cycle is triggered by halving events, which reduce miner rewards by half and slow new supply. Historically, the cycle has three phases:

1. Accumulation Phase: Investors collect Bitcoin as supply tightens. Long-term holders take positions, while new investors enter the market.

2. Bull Run: Approximately 12–18 months after accumulation, prices surge and often reach new all-time highs (ATH).

3. Correction / Bear Market: After the bull run, prices pull back sharply, followed by a multi-year consolidation as the market resets for the next cycle.

“Cycles used to give us a roadmap, but the market is now shaped by more complex dynamics,” says Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

By 2025, institutional ETFs, corporate Bitcoin reserves, and macro factors are reshaping the classic cycle, making price movements more complex than halving alone.

Is the Cycle Broken?

Some analysts argue the four-year cycle broke in 2025. Sustained institutional demand and corporate reserves have softened the typical post-halving drop.

Grayscale predicts strong macro demand and a supportive U.S. regulatory environment will help Bitcoin reach a new ATH in the first half of 2026.

“The four-year cycle theory is no longer valid,” says Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, revising Bitcoin’s 2026 target to $150,000.

Is the Cycle Still Valid?

Other experts believe the cycle continues. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, notes:

“Bitcoin entered a bear market in October 2025, pricing in a slowing economy.”

Rekt Capital says even if the cycle is “broken,” it may be just leveling up. Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB points out that selling pressure largely comes from 2021 veterans and traders expecting a post-halving bear market.

“Altcoins showed no excitement; cycles sometimes stretch. They haven’t ended—only expectations have shifted,” says Alex Wacy.

Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand

By 2025, some countries officially created crypto reserves. Kyrgyzstan was among the first, and the U.S. supported the trend via a March 2025 executive order. Brazil’s Congress also advanced a bill allowing up to 5% of international reserves in Bitcoin.

“If more countries add Bitcoin to foreign exchange reserves, others may follow due to competitive pressure,” says Chris Kuiper, research VP at Fidelity Digital Assets.

Corporate demand is also rising. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and over 100 public companies now hold crypto, with 50 of them controlling around 1 million BTC.

“Some corporations can use market access to purchase Bitcoin—arbitrage opportunities supported by investment mandates and regulations,” Kuiper adds.

However, risks remain. Bear markets or forced corporate sales could put downward pressure on Bitcoin or other digital assets.

Why It Matters

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, government reserves, and corporate adoption will shape market dynamics in 2026. Investors should monitor these factors when assessing price trends and risk.

2025 highlighted questions around Bitcoin’s traditional cycles and showed accelerating demand from nations and corporations. 2026 will test these new norms and risks.

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Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.

Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.

Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside

Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.

• Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.

• Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.

• Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.

Bitcoin vs Gold Performance

The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.

Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.

What Investors Should Expect

XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:

• Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.

• Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.

However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.

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Demand Waves And Market Movements

CryptoQuant analysts highlight three major demand waves in this cycle. The first wave followed the US Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024, the second came after the 2024 US presidential election, and the third was driven by the Bitcoin Treasury Companies bubble. Analysts note:

“The Bitcoin demand boom is fading. This cycle ran on three major spot demand waves, and the latest one appears to be rolling over. Since early October, demand has been below trend, which can remain bearish for price.”

Institutional Demand Declines

Institutional investor interest is also contracting. In Q4 2025, Bitcoin ETFs saw holdings drop by approximately 24,000 BTC, sharply contrasting the strong accumulation in Q4 2024. Funding rates for perpetual futures have fallen to their lowest levels since December 2023, further reinforcing bearish signals.

Bitcoin’s price structure has broken below the 365-day moving average, a key dynamic support level. Analysts warn that this breach strengthens the likelihood of a bear market.

Potential Downside Levels

Analysts note that historically, Bitcoin bear market bottoms align with realized price levels. Current estimates place this level around $56,000. This implies a potential drawdown of about 55% from the recent all-time high, one of the smallest declines on record. Intermediate support is expected around $70,000. Analysts emphasize that these levels serve as guidance, and the market can always produce surprises.

Future Outlook And Market Sentiment

Some analysts remain optimistic for 2026, but overall market sentiment remains in “fear” territory. Falling interest rates, potential increases in demand, and risk asset catalysts may provide support. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index from CoinMarketCap shows investor sentiment firmly in the fear zone.

US monetary policy remains uncertain. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows only 22.1% of investors expect the FOMC to cut rates in its January meeting. Political developments are also influential; US President Donald Trump reportedly pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates in 2025, and with Powell’s term ending in May 2026, potential replacements are expected to favor rate cuts.

Why It Matters?

Falling demand, institutional outflows, and broken technical support could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months, directly influencing investor strategies and market risk appetite.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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