The BTC/USD pair rose by 2.43% in the last 24 hours, reaching $109,500, with trading volume increasing by 20% to $56 billion. The main driver behind this rise is Bitcoin’s synchronized movement with the global M2 money supply. The M2 money supply has reached an all-time high of $55.48 trillion. 

Additionally, Coinglass data supports the upward trend. A 7.28% increase in open interest on BTC futures indicates a generally bullish market. 

Peter Brandt’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: $140K Target in Sight 

The analyst emphasized Bitcoin is in a strong breakout pattern in a chart shared on the X platform. Brandt questioned, “Isn’t this bearish flag too obvious to fail?” According to Brandt, after this breakout, BTC is aiming first for $104,000, then $140,000. This outlook aligns with forecasts from major institutions like Standard Chartered and is supported by the Global M2 curve that Bitcoin has followed consistently since early 2024. 

Is this bear flag (yellow box) so obvious to everyone so as to not work?
Or is this chart about to drop off a cliff?
Just asking. CTB$ pic.twitter.com/x3c9ABwVx5

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 3, 2025

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $90K Before Jackson Hole 

However, Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes is more cautious. He believes June’s CPI data and July’s FOMC decision may tighten market liquidity. The restructuring of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could significantly withdraw liquidity from the market. 

Hayes stated, “The market will move sideways or slightly down until Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.” He highlighted a potential drop to the $90,000–$95,000 range for BTC. Preparing for this scenario, Maelstrom Fund sold illiquid altcoin positions and reduced Bitcoin exposure. 

FOMC and CPI Data to Decide Bitcoin’s Fate 

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on economic data and central bank decisions. If inflation falls below expectations, real yields remain low, attracting capital to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, if the Fed softens its hawkish stance and slows balance sheet reduction, it could trigger a new bull run. 

CPI data and the Fed’s tone will determine the strength of this move. The battle between bulls and bears will become clearer in the coming days. 

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Cipolaro noted that crypto perpetual futures funding rates have remained consistently positive. Despite a $480 million liquidation occurring on April 6–7 following Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, this figure is considered minor compared to previous major sell-offs. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) briefly dipped below its $1 peg but avoided a sharp depreciation.

Trump’s sweeping tariffs on all nations, introduced on April 2 and enforced on April 9, were delayed just hours later for 90 days. The U.S. imposed a 10% base tariff on countries excluding China, which still faces tariffs of up to 145%. These sudden shifts injected a new layer of uncertainty into both traditional and digital asset markets.

Bitcoin Resists Volatility, Gains Role as Safe Haven

While not entirely immune to volatility, Bitcoin has performed far better than many other asset classes in recent weeks. Cipolaro highlighted that BTC is down 22.5% from its mid-January high of $108,000, but has traded mostly flat over the past 24 hours — indicating a phase of relative stability.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Cipolaro suggests that investors are increasingly seeking store-of-value assets not tied to fiat currencies or sovereign risk, driving further interest in Bitcoin. Notably, risk-parity portfolio funds are beginning to add Bitcoin into their asset mix, drawn by its decreasing volatility. This trend could help Bitcoin become even more stable, supporting wider institutional adoption over time.

Technical Indicators Flash Caution: Death Cross Ahead?

On the technical side, YouHodler’s Chief of Markets Ruslan Lienkha raised a red flag in an April 12 note. According to Lienkha, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are potentially forming a “death cross” — a bearish chart pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average. This signal is often interpreted as a warning of medium-term downward pressure.

Lienkha warned that without a clear macroeconomic catalyst or positive momentum, markets may struggle to sustain upward movement in the coming weeks.

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