CryptoQuant Bitcoin Analysis: Demand is Weakening

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno stated, “If Bitcoin fails to hold above $100,000, the risk of a drop to $72,000 becomes more likely.” He attributes this primarily to the lack of recovery in demand after the record liquidation on October 10, where $20 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.

Capital outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, a negative Coinbase premium, and declining spot demand are reinforcing this downward pressure. Market sentiment has also deteriorated, with the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Score Index dropping to 20, signaling strong bearish momentum.

ETF data further reflects this weakness. As of November 4, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $577.74 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw $219.37 million in outflows. In contrast, Solana spot ETFs recorded $14.83 million in net inflows — their sixth consecutive day of positive movement. This indicates a shift from large-cap assets toward riskier alternatives.

How Far Could Bitcoin Fall?

Bitcoin has dropped more than 5.2% in the last 24 hours, trading around $100,800. The GMCI 30 Index declined over 9% in a single day, pointing to a broad risk-off sentiment in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick referred to the correction as “inevitable” but noted that Bitcoin could recover if macroeconomic conditions turn favorable.

Factors Increasing Market Pressure

• Fund outflows from crypto ETFs

• Negative Coinbase spot premium

• Global risk aversion and interest rate uncertainty

• Weak demand and long-term holders selling

Is the $72,000 Scenario Permanent?

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, highlighted rising volatility due to interest rate decisions, credit market stress, and equity valuations. However, despite the current drawdown, he emphasized that the long-term outlook for BTC remains intact.

Continued institutional adoption, strong ETF inflows throughout the year, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may end tightening could pave the way for new all-time highs. While $100,000 acts as a psychological support, Bitcoin’s long-term investment narrative remains unchanged.

Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Opportunity

If Bitcoin loses the $100,000 support zone, the risk of a move toward $72,000 strengthens. However, on-chain data, institutional demand, and liquidity indicators suggest that new highs remain possible in the medium to long term. While the current decline fuels fear, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin analysis clearly defines a strategic decision point for investors.

Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube and Twitter for the latest news and updates

The post Bitcoin Drops Below $100K – CryptoQuant Warns of $72K Risk appeared first on Coin Engineer.

At the end of October 2024, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $112,788, pushing these new holders into losses for the first time in a year. This transition raises questions about whether they can withstand market pressure as older whales offload holdings.

Whale Realized Cap Signals a Power Shift

The Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s total value based on the last on-chain transaction price for each coin. The Whale Realized Cap reflects the capital invested by large holders owning over 1,000 BTC.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that new whales’ share of the realized cap has risen sharply. However, for the first time since October 2023, these new whales now have a negative Unrealized Profit Ratio — meaning their average entry price of $112,788 is higher than the current BTC price of $110,196.

Meanwhile, older whales who accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices remain profitable, giving them greater resilience during downtrends and potentially adding selling pressure if new whales panic.

Selling Pressure and Market Psychology

This ongoing distribution from old whales to new whales could intensify selling pressure if sentiment weakens further. Historically, such transitions — where experienced holders sell to newer investors — have preceded deeper market corrections.

Open Interest across futures markets has declined, signaling weaker trader confidence. Lower participation means reduced volatility in the short term but also indicates uncertainty among investors about BTC’s near-term direction.

If new whales start selling to cut losses, Bitcoin could face additional downside. Conversely, if they hold through current levels, the market might find stability soon.

What to Watch Next

Analysts highlight three key signals to monitor:

• New whale behavior — large sell-offs could push BTC below $100,000.

• Long-term holder activity — renewed accumulation could stabilize the market.

• Futures Open Interest — a rebound could mark a short-term recovery trend.

The next few weeks will reveal whether this new generation of whales has the same conviction as their predecessors — a factor that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory into 2025.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post New Bitcoin Whales Take Over: Is a Price Drop Coming? appeared first on Coin Engineer.