Arkham Intelligence data reveals that the surge started from Binance’s hot wallet with 15,944 BTC (around $1.05 billion). Bybit saw $897 million, Bitfinex $814 million outflows. Kraken, Coinbase, Wintermute, and FalconX also executed hundreds of millions worth of transfers within the same 30-minute period.

Over 154,000 traders were liquidated, with total losses reaching $522 million. This wave of selling reflects a pattern that has repeated three times before.

Operation Epic Fury and Regional Chaos

The U.S. and Israel launched a joint operation, named “Operation Epic Fury” by the Pentagon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed a “preemptive strike,” while former President Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. had initiated “large-scale combat operations.”

Iran retaliated, targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and certain military installations in Kuwait and the UAE. Explosions occurred in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with one fatality caused by debris from intercepted missiles. UAE airspace was closed.

This backdrop makes it harder to interpret sudden, large Bitcoin outflows. The same wallets had already been identified in previous 30-minute spikes.

History Repeats: October 2025 and Previous Moves

On October 10, 2025, on-chain analysts reported that Wintermute transferred $700 million to Binance hours before $19 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated. This crash coincided with Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China.

Two weeks earlier, $2.5 billion in BTC was sold within 30 minutes. These sales were also linked to Binance, Coinbase, and Wintermute wallets. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy dismissed the claims, saying it was “a sudden crash in a low-liquidity, leveraged market affected by macro news on a Friday night.”

Former CFTC regulator Salman Banaei had a different view: “Regulators should launch an investigation into what happened on October 10, 2025.” Exchanges have not commented on today’s outflows.

Bitcoin Technical and Psychological Levels

Bitcoin still trades 49% below its $126,000 all-time high. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14. Key support is at $63,100; a breach could trigger Deribit’s 5,200 BTC open put positions toward $60,000.

Historical data shows potential recovery. After Iran’s missile attacks in April 2024, BTC dropped to $61,000 before reaching new highs. Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 pushed BTC down to $103,000, but it rose above $125,000 by October.

The market remains fragile. According to CryptoQuant, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are net sellers this month. The short-term direction remains uncertain.

Micro Perspective: Exchanges and Liquidation Traps

Some analysts argue that these rapid outflows aren’t genuine selling but exchange-driven liquidation events. Binance, Coinbase, and Wintermute wallets appear to trigger instant liquidations to manipulate market moves. The pattern is consistent: keep major holders calm, force thin order books, trigger stops, and enforce liquidations.

Smart investors monitor on-chain flows to separate real movement from engineered ones.

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