BTC price action Archives - Coin Engineer

Bitcoin Approaches Bottom with 4-Year Cycle!

Yeliz Akmaca — Tue, 03 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000

In recent months, thousands of complex analyses have tried to make sense of Bitcoin price movements. Yet according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the answer is much simpler. Why is Bitcoin rising? The fundamental reason lies in the 21 million capped supply and the famous 4-year halving cycle that reduces miners’ rewards by half. As of March 2026, with BTC approaching $68,400, Van Eck told CNBC, “Bitcoin rises for three years, falls in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year, and we have now touched the bottom of the bear market,” dispersing fear across the market.

Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck’s Perspective

Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC’s price was not the coin’s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.

“Bitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,” said Van Eck.

Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.

Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction

The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.

“In a potential Iran settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,” Van Eck explained.

Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity

Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.

After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.
Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.
Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin’s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.

Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.

Bottom and Market Resilience

Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.

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Bitcoin Liveliness Surges: Bull Market Signals Strength

Yeliz Akmaca — Sun, 07 Dec 2025 11:00:26 +0000

Bitcoin onchain liveliness metric has recently reached notable peaks, signaling persistent investor demand despite price corrections. Analysts believe the ongoing bull cycle is not over yet, as market activity remains robust.

Liveliness measures long-term onchain activity, similar to a moving average for coin movement. Technical analyst “TXMC” stated on Sunday, “Liveliness continues to rise this cycle even with lower prices, reflecting a strong demand floor for spot Bitcoin that isn’t yet visible in price action.”

What Liveliness Represents

According to TXMC, the metric works elegantly:

Liveliness increases when coins are transacted and decreases when they are held.
The metric scales according to coin age, making older coins’ movement more impactful.
Historically, it rises during bull runs as capital flows into the market.

Analyst James Check noted that liveliness remained range-bound since the 2017 peak, but current cycles are breaking new highs. The reactivation of dormant coins shows an unprecedented rotation of capital this cycle. Check emphasized, “Unlike 2017, when transactions were hundreds or thousands of dollars, this cycle sees billions moving onchain.”

Bitcoin Price Trends and Consolidation

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen limited movement. Prices briefly dipped below $89,000 on Sunday morning but recovered to around $89,500 at the time of writing. MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe commented, “Anything between $86,000 and $92,000 is largely noise. Significant moves will happen outside this range.”

He added, “If $92,000 is tested, we may break it, otherwise expect a test near the low $80,000s for a potential double-bottom pattern.” Analysts suggest the end of the year and early 2025 could see a strong rally.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Liveliness continues to climb, reflecting ongoing investor demand
Reactivation of old coins signals major capital rotation
BTC price consolidating between $86,000–$92,000
Long-term bull cycle may still be active

Rising liveliness indicates that despite short-term price fluctuations, Bitcoin’s bull market momentum remains intact. Onchain data and analyst insights suggest investors should monitor trends carefully while considering potential long-term opportunities.

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Bitcoin Faces Resistance At $109,400: Is A Move Toward $110K Coming?

Yigit Taha OZTURK — Mon, 07 Jul 2025 07:00:41 +0000

The crypto market’s attention is once again on Bitcoin, which recently broke above a key resistance but couldn’t hold higher levels. As bulls and bears battle for short-term control, the price is now hovering near a crucial technical zone.

Rejection From $109,400 Resistance Level

Over the weekend, Bitcoin broke past the previously highlighted $108,791 resistance and surged to $109,400. However, this level acted as a strong resistance, prompting selling pressure and a pause in the upward momentum.

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If BTC manages to close above $109,400, the likelihood of a move toward the psychological $110,000 mark increases significantly. Such a breakout would signal renewed bullish strength.

$108,791 Turns Into Key Support

In contrast, failure to sustain above resistance could lead to a retest of the $108,791 level, which now serves as a key support. A breakdown below this level may open the door for a deeper correction toward $108,000 or even lower.

Traders are advised to closely watch these levels as price action near them may define the next short-term trend in Bitcoin.

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