Throughout the week, crypto prices have largely remained flat, with a slight increase on Friday. Total market capitalization has risen by $150 billion since Monday, though trading volumes and volatility remain subdued.

Bitcoin Options and Market Dynamics

This week’s Bitcoin options have a put/call ratio of around 0.97, meaning longs and shorts are closely matched. According to Coinglass, the “max pain” level is around $69,000. Many options expiring today are close to profitable levels, meaning investors could realize gains from their contracts.

Open interest (OI) on Deribit is highest at the $60,000 strike, with approximately $1.7 billion in bearish bets. Total Bitcoin options OI across all exchanges has climbed to $45.5 billion this March.

Greeks Live observed the market recovery, noting that Bitcoin has remained above the $70,000 psychological level and is “now poised to challenge $75,000.” Additionally, the flat forward implied volatility curve beyond March shows no significant premium for longer-dated options, suggesting balanced risk pricing.

On the Ethereum side, around 185,000 contracts are expiring, with a total value of $382 million, max pain at $2,000, and a put/call ratio of 1.2. Total ETH options OI across exchanges is around $7.9 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiring today to $2.3 billion.

Spot Markets and Altcoins

Spot markets also recorded gains, with total capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion, marking a weekly high.

Bitcoin tested the $72,000 level in early trading but faced resistance and pulled back. Ether rose about 4%, surpassing $2,100.

Altcoins mostly showed positive performance, with notable gains for Solana, Hyperliquid, Avalanche, and Sui. Pi Network (PI) jumped 33% to $0.29 following its Kraken listing.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today represent a total notional value of $2.3 billion. Max pain levels are near current prices, highlighting potential price pressure in the options market. Spot market movements remain limited, but psychological levels should be monitored.

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Monday – Calm Before the Storm

U.S. markets are closed today. Such holidays often release pent-up trading activity in the following days. Volatility-focused investors should keep an eye out starting Tuesday.

Tuesday – Busy Crypto Agenda

• Hedera DevDay 2026 ($HBAR) kicks off; protocol updates and potential partnerships are highly anticipated.

• $ENSO will make a key announcement, closely followed by the community.

• Chinese New Year begins, potentially moving Asian markets temporarily.

• Ethereum Denver Event ($ETH) starts; roadmap updates and community highlights are expected.

Wednesday – Crypto Network Upgrades & FOMC

• Saturn One upgrade ($RPL) will activate the fee switch, impacting liquidity and staking behavior.

• $INJ Community Buyback 226 takes place as planned.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 22:00; investors will search for clues on the Fed’s next moves.

Thursday – Roadmaps & Ramadan

• $ZAMA unveils its 2026 roadmap; investors can track upcoming projects and strategies.

• Ramadan begins ($MUBARAK), potentially affecting Middle Eastern markets.

Friday – Key Economic Data & Legal Decision

• U.S. Core PCE announced at 16:30 (expected 3%, previous 2.8%), influencing inflation pricing.

• U.S. GDP announced at 16:30 (expected 2.8%, previous 4.4%), with potential market impact.

• U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on tariffs, affecting corporate supply chains and costs.

Additionally, around 10 Fed officials will speak, and 15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings, shaping market direction.

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According to Wood, the ongoing correction aligns with the asset’s four-year cycle and appears far less severe than many investors fear.

“We Are Very Close to the Bottom”

Speaking during a televised market discussion, Cathie Wood argued that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior does not signal the start of a prolonged bear market. Instead, she described the pullback as one of the shallowest corrections seen throughout Bitcoin’s relatively short history.

Wood pushed back against concerns of a deep and extended downturn, emphasizing that the majority of the downside phase has already played out. In her assessment, current price action suggests Bitcoin is approaching its cyclical low rather than entering a new period of sustained weakness.

This perspective challenges the narrative that the market is only at the beginning of a broader bearish phase.

Understanding the Four-Year Cycle Argument

At the core of Wood’s outlook is Bitcoin’s well-documented four-year market cycle. She noted that, compared to previous cycles, the current correction stands out for both its limited duration and modest depth.

One key factor behind this, according to Wood, is the nature of the previous bull market. Unlike earlier cycles that featured explosive upside moves, the most recent rally failed to reach historical extremes. As a result, the corrective phase that followed has been comparatively restrained.

From this standpoint, Wood believes investors should recalibrate expectations toward a more constructive outlook rather than anticipating further aggressive downside.

Short-Term Caution: A Potential Support Retest

Despite her broader optimism, Cathie Wood acknowledged that short-term volatility remains a possibility. She cautioned that Bitcoin could revisit the $80,000 region before attempting a move toward new all-time highs.

Importantly, Wood framed such a move not as a breakdown of the bullish structure, but as a normal and healthy market process. A retest of key support levels, in her view, would be consistent with historical behavior during transitional phases between corrections and renewed uptrends.

A Historically Mild Correction?

One of the most notable aspects of Wood’s commentary is her belief that this downturn may ultimately be remembered as Bitcoin’s shortest and shallowest decline within its four-year cycle framework.

She suggested that once this corrective phase fully concludes, Bitcoin could resume its longer-term upward trajectory. For investors with a long-term horizon, this interpretation reinforces the idea that the recent pullback may represent consolidation rather than structural weakness.

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Since mid-December, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collectively added 56,227 BTC to their portfolios. At current prices, this represents over $5.3 billion in accumulation. Meanwhile, smaller retail investors have been taking profits, highlighting a divergence that historically signals important market thresholds.

Timing is crucial. Major accumulations occurred around Bitcoin’s local bottom. Even though prices stayed relatively flat, this ongoing buildup quietly suggests the potential for an upward breakout. The market seems calm on the surface, but balance is shifting behind the scenes.

Retail Sells While Whales Position

Over the past 24 hours, the trend has become clearer. A significant portion of retail traders interpreted the recent rally as a “bull trap” and opted to take profits. While this behavior may appear cautious, history shows it often sets the stage for market moves in the opposite direction.

On-chain analytics indicate that cryptocurrency markets frequently follow large and mid-sized holders rather than small wallets. Therefore, increased retail selling combined with continued whale accumulation could open space for upward market growth. The key risk lies more in timing than in speed of movement.

Bitcoin Price Consolidates, Background Activity Revealed

BTC has been range-bound between $87,000 and $94,000 for roughly six weeks, a level unbroken since mid-November. Prices are now approaching the top of this range, while supply distribution on-chain is shifting noticeably.

Analysts note that the proportion of BTC in profit dropped from 67% to 47%, signaling that selling pressure has weakened. Short positions in futures markets are being squeezed, yet overall market leverage remains low. This combination favors a controlled, healthy upward continuation rather than an abrupt move.

Consolidation Continues, But Direction Emerging

The current structure represents a classic “bullish consolidation.” Immediate resistance lies between $95,000 and $100,000, with heavy call option interest at the $100k strike for January expiry, reinforcing its psychological significance.

Short-term support exists between $88,000 and $90,000. A break below this zone could trigger deeper corrections. However, current on-chain data and supply behavior suggest that the probability of an upward breakout outweighs downside risk for now.

Bitcoin started 2026 with strength, achieving a 4-hour close above $94,000. Maintaining this level signals weakening resistance and opens the path toward the $100,000 range.

• New Target: Daily closes above $94,000 are expected to fuel momentum, potentially pushing BTC into six-figure territory.
• Critical Support: The nearest support sits at $92,000, where buyer activity has remained strong since November 21.
• Notable Dynamic: Unlike previous cycles, sharp post-rally retracements have been limited, with price holding higher levels successfully.

In short, as long as $92,000 support holds, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains upward.

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O’Leary pointed out that there is “a lot of inflation in the system.” The annual inflation rate in September reached 3%, the highest since January.

He added, “The Fed has a dual mandate: full employment and inflation. Tariffs are taking effect, and input costs are increasing.”

Market participants, however, have pushed the probability of a December rate cut to 88.1% according to CME FedWatch. Still, O’Leary said this scenario does not support Bitcoin. He believes Bitcoin currently shows no clear short-term direction, and Fed decisions have limited impact on the price.

O’Leary stated that Bitcoin has found a level for now and is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. Without a strong catalyst, he expects the price to move only within a 5% range. According to Binance, Bitcoin was trading around $93,200 at the time of the report.

“I think the price will drift within roughly 5% of its current level in either direction, but I don’t see a strong upside catalyst,” O’Leary added.

Volatile expectations ahead of December Fed meeting

Expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated sharply in recent weeks. On November 19, the probability of a rate cut dropped to 33%, while in the first week of November it was around 67%.

This shifted rapidly after New York Fed President John Williams said a rate cut could occur “in the near term.” Following his comments, the probability rose to 69.4% within two days.

Following the rate cuts in September and November, markets broadly expected the Fed to end the year with another easing step. However, O’Leary’s comments highlight that crypto investors should not rely too heavily on macro data when pricing Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains stable, while rate speculation continues to support volatility in the market. As noted, the next Fed meeting is scheduled for December 9, and the decision is expected to reshape market expectations.

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Since early October, bitcoin has fallen roughly 32% through most of November. The price briefly touched $84,000 on Monday before rebounding to $86,909 by Tuesday morning. Despite this volatility, Grayscale highlighted that long-term investors still have a strong chance of gains.

Bitcoin and the Four-Year Cycle

Grayscale analysts argue that bitcoin is unlikely to follow its traditional four-year cycle. In previous bull markets, sharp parabolic rallies typically preceded major corrections, but this cycle has not shown such a pattern. Institutional investment is concentrated in exchange-traded products and corporate digital treasuries rather than retail-driven spot trading, marking a significant difference from prior cycles.

The macroeconomic environment also appears supportive. Potential interest rate cuts and bipartisan backing for cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. could provide additional tailwinds for bitcoin. Grayscale notes that pullbacks exceeding 25% are common in bull markets and do not necessarily signal the start of a prolonged downtrend.

Expert and Institutional Views

Tom Lee, CEO of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, highlighted a growing disconnect between bitcoin’s fundamentals and its price. According to Lee, indicators such as wallet growth, on-chain activity, and tokenization remain strong, even as prices continue to fall. This makes BTC and ETH appear attractive from a risk/reward perspective.

Lee also told CNBC that he remains bullish on bitcoin, expecting the world’s largest cryptocurrency to reach a new all-time high by January. These remarks offer an optimistic outlook for both investors and crypto market observers.

“Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals, measured by wallets, on-chain activity, fees, or tokenization, have moved forward. So risk/reward is attractive for BTC and ETH.”

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Stablecoin and Regulatory Concerns in Bitcoin Decline

One of the key factors in the Bitcoin drop was concern over USD-backed stablecoins. Tether (USDT) and similar digital assets raised questions about reserve transparency and reliability, reducing investor risk appetite. According to Reuters, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reiterated its strict stance on digital assets, stating that stablecoins are being used for “money laundering, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border fund transfers” and vowed to increase enforcement against such illegal activities.

Strategy (MSTR US) CEO Phong Le stated that the company would only sell its Bitcoin if the market NAV (mNAV) remained low and all other financing options were exhausted. Despite weekend concerns, Strategy raised $1.44 billion in cash on Monday to support dividend payments and meet debt obligations. This illustrates how strategic digital asset reserve companies adjust their BTC holdings in volatile markets.

Japan Bond Market and Global Economic Stress

Some analysts linked Bitcoin’s decline to rising yields on Japan’s 20-year government bonds. Higher yields generally reduce investor appetite for purchasing bonds at current prices. However, 30-day correlation data shows that a direct link is difficult to establish.

Stress in the Japan bond market also reflects deteriorating global economic expectations. Cloud AI companies issuing GPU-backed debt instruments create potential default risk, shaking investor confidence. Nvidia and CoreWeave’s financing strategies have contributed to market uncertainty, making Bitcoin investors cautious.

Liquidity, Order Book, and Investor Behavior

Liquidity constraints and shallow order books contributed to Bitcoin’s decline. Despite over 400,000 BTC accumulated around $84,000–$90,000, strong buying pressure was absent, and short-term investors remain underwater compared to their average entry of $104,600.

CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s “Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio” at its lowest since 2018. This indicates that buying power is waiting on the sidelines while spot demand remains weak.

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Bitcoin Whale Inflows Signal a Strong Warning

On November 21, whales moved approximately 9,000 BTC to exchanges, nearly half from large wallets. This activity signaled that whales were preparing to sell, adding new pressure to the crypto market. Single-day transfers reaching 7,000 BTC further stressed the price.

“This indicates that investors and traders continue to sell Bitcoin in the context of the current price drawdown, putting further downward pressure on the price.”

CryptoQuant analysis shows that almost half of the BTC sent to exchanges comes from wallets holding 100 BTC or more. Single-day inflows of 7,000 BTC suggest whales are accelerating their selling preparations.

Meanwhile, the average BTC deposit in November reached 1.23 BTC, the highest level in the past year. This rise pushed exchanges back into a selling-dominated position. Coinbase reported that BTC fell to $80,600, the lowest in seven months.

Bitcoin exchange inflows are rising as the price drops to ~87K, a seven-month low.

Large deposits (100+ BTC) now make up 45% of all inflows, hitting 7K BTC on Nov 21.

Large holders are increasingly sending BTC to exchanges, reinforcing the current downtrend. pic.twitter.com/UpN4rAL0FH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 26, 2025

Binance Stablecoin Reserves Hit Record High

Binance’s stablecoin reserves reached $51 billion this week, setting a new record. This accumulation indicates that investors are moving away from risk and keeping capital in waiting mode. BTC and ETH inflows on Binance and Coinbase together reached $40 billion, adding further pressure on the crypto market.

Analyst James Check noted that leverage remains high. He added that if BTC enters the $70,000–$80,000 range, it could clear remaining leveraged positions, indicating continued short-term volatility.

Altcoin Inflows Rise as Resistance Levels Are Monitored

Ether inflows increased but not as sharply as BTC. However, altcoins faced a strong selling wave, with many tokens returning to bear market lows. This trend shows low investor appetite and reduced trading activity on exchanges.

10x Research noted that Bitcoin’s tactical recovery from oversold conditions continues. Analysts identified $92,000 and $101,000 as key resistance levels. Remaining above $90,000 will be decisive for short-term price action.

Key Market Signals This Week:

• Whale inflows rose, boosting selling pressure.
• Stablecoin reserves reached record highs.
• Altcoin inflows increased, while prices weakened.
• The crypto market remains cautious.

This analysis clearly shows the relationship between Bitcoin whale inflows and market behavior. On-chain data continues to shape short-term trends. As whale activity increases, market pressure may persist, urging investors to remain cautious.

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Bitcoin’s rebound from a recent low of $80,000 to above $85,000 over the weekend reflects renewed investor confidence. Trading volumes jumped nearly 50%, signaling increased market activity. Analysts attribute part of this surge to returning institutional participation. US spot ETFs saw inflows of about $238 million, helping to restore market confidence. Weekend trading typically drops by up to 25%, which can exaggerate price movements.

Investor sentiment also benefited from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a December reduction, boosting optimism. Additionally, BlackRock’s proposed staked Ethereum ETF, with an estimated 3–4% yield, further fueled market confidence.

US Economic Reports Could Drive Volatility

Investors are closely watching three key US reports this week: the Producer Price Index (PPI), weekly jobless claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE.

The PPI, scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 25, will reveal wholesale price trends. A higher-than-expected PPI could reduce rate-cut expectations, while softer data might support policy easing early next year.

Weekly jobless claims, due on Wednesday, November 26, could also influence market sentiment. Higher-than-expected unemployment claims typically reinforce the case for sooner rate cuts. Last week’s US job report exceeded projections, driving Bitcoin gains.

The PCE inflation report will likely be the key short-term market driver. By reflecting real consumer behavior, any upside surprise could trigger immediate volatility across Bitcoin and major altcoins.

Analysts Split on Market Sustainability

Analyst Oleg Kalmanovich notes that US retail sales and PCE data will determine if the recovery continues. Weak data could strengthen the case for a December rate cut, while stronger numbers may apply pressure on the market into early 2026.

CryptoQuant highlights that short-term holders have largely capitulated, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, losing the $80,000 support level could trigger a prolonged correction.

According to QCP Asia, BTC is showing early recovery signs after a brutal 30% drop. Dovish Fed comments have pushed December rate-cut expectations to 75%. Derivatives positioning indicates traders are still betting on upside, with year-end call open interest outweighing puts. Negative funding rates also suggest long leverage has been flushed, reducing downside risk.

This week is pivotal for the crypto market. PPI, jobless claims, and PCE data, combined with positive ETF flows, could determine whether Bitcoin’s rebound above $87K is sustainable.

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Bitcoin open positions fall as market reduces risk

Bitcoin open interest has undergone a significant cleansing process amid recent volatility. Futures trading volume has slowed considerably, while liquidations have cleared the market of excessively risky positions. Additionally, traders are reducing leverage, indicating that aggressive appetite in the derivatives market has temporarily diminished. Historically, such periods often preceded strong market bottoms.

“Historically, these cleansing phases have often been essential to forming a solid bottom and setting the stage for a renewed bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closures of overly optimistic positions, and a gradual decline in speculative exposure help rebalance the market.”

Darkfost noted that the last time Bitcoin open interest fell so quickly over 30 days was during the 2022 bear market, highlighting the significance of the current market cleanup.

Why the market entered a cleansing phase

BTC’s pullback is not only a technical correction but also reflects weakening global risk appetite. Slower ETF flows and panic among short-term traders have accelerated this process. On-chain data shows an increase in large wallet movements, suggesting that mid- and long-term investors are viewing the retracement as a buying opportunity. This dynamic could help restore market balance.

Critical price ranges: Where could the rally be triggered?

Bitcoin’s price can quickly shift market sentiment at certain thresholds, laying the groundwork for new trends.

• $88,000–$90,000: Key buying zone
• Above $94,000: Breakout area where momentum strengthens
• $82,000–$84,000: Support band for reactionary purchases

In addition, rising volatility makes volume distribution in these zones increasingly decisive. With derivatives market activity weakening, spot demand may dominate, leading to sharper price reactions.

Could a new Bitcoin rally happen?

Experts believe that the rapid unwinding of open positions indicates the market has shed overheated leverage levels. If spot buyers regain strength, Bitcoin could quickly gain upward momentum. Furthermore, liquidity accumulated around psychological price levels may accelerate upward moves, allowing BTC to approach key breakout zones again.

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