On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band oscillator, which measures the gap between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days, has plunged into deep oversold territory. In simple terms, Bitcoin is trading well below what recent buyers paid, beyond normal volatility, a signal historically aligned with macro bottoms.

2018 Rally Setup

A similar oversold signal appeared in late 2018 and preceded a roughly 150% rally within a year, eventually leading to a 1,900% increase over three years. The same indicator also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, preceding a 700% rally to near $126,270.

Since October 2025, when Bitcoin peaked near $126,500, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, dropping to around $60,000. The market is now on track for a fifth consecutive weekly loss—the first time since the March-May 2022 period. Monthly losses have also piled up for five straight months since October, marking the second-longest declining streak after the six-month drop between 2018 and 2019.

Bitcoin vs. Gold

Against gold, Bitcoin has underperformed for seven consecutive months, representing one of the longest stretches of weak performance in the BTC/Gold pair.

Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon noted to CNBC that higher-than-expected US tax refunds in 2026 could funnel roughly $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin. That could absorb remaining sell pressure and increase the chances of Bitcoin bottoming in the coming weeks.

Short-term holder stress is easing, whales haven’t capitulated yet, and liquidity may flow in by the end of March. Conditions for a rebound are gradually forming, though volatility remains high and sudden price swings are still possible.

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Whales Are Back

According to Santiment, large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collectively accumulated 32,693 BTC since January 10. This represents a 0.24% increase in their holdings and marks the highest accumulation level in two months.

Meanwhile, micro investors holding less than 0.01 BTC have sold a total of 149 BTC over the same period, reducing their balances by 0.30%. This divergence—whales buying steadily while small investors exit—is a key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Retail Hesitant, Whales Steady

Santiment notes that retail investors remain skeptical of the mini-rally, while whales’ consistent accumulation creates favorable conditions for a bull market scenario.

Market sentiment paints an interesting picture: although prices are rising, negative social media comments have reached a 10-day high. Retail caution persists, a familiar pattern for experienced traders.

BTC Derivatives Support the Rally

Derivatives data also reinforce this steady rise. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights that the Bitcoin Position Index climbed to 3.5 this week, surpassing a critical level not seen since October. Open positions and funding rates indicate that the surge is steady rather than sudden.

Crucially:

• Open positions and funding rates remain moderate.

• This rally is more organic than past “pump-and-dump” episodes.

• The market interprets it as a controlled return of risk appetite.

In short, while Bitcoin consolidates near the $98K mark, the real story unfolds on-chain. All eyes are now on when this whale-driven accumulation phase will push BTC toward the $100,000 psychological level.

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Bitcoin Hits Record on Coinbase 

On Sunday morning, Bitcoin surpassed $125,700 on according to TradingView, setting a new record. The previous peak was $124,500 on August 14. BTC had dropped 13.5% by September 1 but showed a strong recovery last week. Nova Dius CEO Nate Geraci commented: 

“Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, and most people still don’t fully understand what Bitcoin is.” 

Analyst Rekt Capital added:

“If Bitcoin convincingly breaks $126,500, the price could accelerate much higher.” 

Exchange Bitcoin Reserves at Six-Year Low 

Glassnode reports that total BTC held on centralized exchanges fell to 2.83 million on Saturday, the lowest in six years. CryptoQuant shows total exchange reserves at 2.45 million BTC, a seven-year low. 

Over the past two weeks, more than 114,000 BTC have left exchanges, valued at over $14 billion. This indicates holders plan to keep their coins long-term rather than sell. VanEck Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel noted, “The outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges signals significant scarcity,” urging investors to remain cautious. 

Institutional Funds and Long-Term Goals 

Most of the BTC leaving exchanges is going to institutional funds, digital asset treasuries, or individual wallets. This reduces available supply in the market and can drive prices higher. Bitcoin’s long-term rally is supported by declining exchange reserves and rising institutional demand. Analysts note this trend could also affect altcoins and other crypto assets. 

Factors Supporting Bitcoin’s Rally: 

• Over 114,000 BTC leaving centralized exchanges 
• Rising interest from institutional investors 
• Long-term holding strategies 
• Reduced available supply 
• New price peak above $125K 

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CEO Simon Gerovich stated that they acquired 3,002 BTC last week and 7,464 BTC over the past month, pushing their year-to-date BTC return to 435.9%. Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin investment is now worth $1.64 billion, indicating an average acquisition price of $100,191 per BTC.

Bitcoin has gained 10.5% in the last week, surpassing the $121,000 level. This uptrend supports Metaplanet’s long-term BTC strategy. The firm is frequently dubbed “Japan’s MicroStrategy.”

Bitcoin Market Cap Surpasses Amazon and Alphabet

With Bitcoin’s market cap exceeding $2.4 trillion, it now ranks ahead of tech giants like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Meanwhile, daily trading volume surged 33% to $60 billion, and open interest in BTC futures reached $86.1 billion. According to Coinglass, $290 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, $281 million of which were shorts.

Despite the surge in BTC value, Metaplanet shares had a muted start to the week. However, analysts at Benchmark set a price target of 2,400 JPY for Metaplanet stock, indicating a 50% upside from its current level of 1,596 JPY. Additionally, with today’s BTC purchase, the company’s mNAV (market Net Asset Value) dropped to 3.78, making its stock more attractive to investors due to the growing BTC reserves.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced on July 13 that he would resume BTC purchases. This move reflects growing institutional demand for Bitcoin. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs received $2.7 billion in inflows last week, supporting this upward trend.

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New Breakouts Signal Potential Upside

BTC has broken through the previously mentioned resistance zone of $106,622 – $105,725, continuing its upward move. This breakout reflects strong buying momentum and could lead to further gains.

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The next resistance lies at $108,791. A strong, high-volume breakout above this level could push Bitcoin into a new leg of bullish movement, possibly testing new local highs.

Rejection Risk Still Exists

However, a rejection from this zone may indicate a temporary pause or retracement. Since $108,791 is a technically strong resistance, cautious risk management is advised for traders at these levels.

In terms of support, the previously broken resistance now becomes the new watch zone: the $106,622 – $105,725 area will likely act as support in the event of a pullback.

Close Monitoring Is Key

Tracking these levels closely is crucial for both short-term trading setups and longer-term positioning. With volatility increasing, a disciplined strategy remains the best defense.

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Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Investment Strategy

Metaplanet views digital assets as a long-term store of value, and its investments in Bitcoin are executed with this perspective. The company’s interest in Bitcoin may serve as an example for corporate investors in Japan and across Asia. This investment move is also made during a period of increasing confidence in cryptocurrencies. It can be said that the company aims to take advantage of fluctuations in the crypto market by increasing its Bitcoin holdings.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Rise of Corporate Bitcoin Investments

This investment by Metaplanet shows the growing interest of corporate firms in Bitcoin and other digital assets in Asia. In previous years, large companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla drew attention for their Bitcoin investments. Following these moves, it is expected that companies in Japan will also increase their interest in digital assets. With its increased Bitcoin investments, Metaplanet becomes part of this trend.

The preference for Bitcoin by institutional investors helps build more trust in the crypto market. The value increase of Bitcoin is further reinforced by the large investments made by corporate firms. Metaplanet‘s recent acquisition is considered an important step for the future of digital assets.

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