Rejection From $109,400 Resistance Level

Over the weekend, Bitcoin broke past the previously highlighted $108,791 resistance and surged to $109,400. However, this level acted as a strong resistance, prompting selling pressure and a pause in the upward momentum.

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If BTC manages to close above $109,400, the likelihood of a move toward the psychological $110,000 mark increases significantly. Such a breakout would signal renewed bullish strength.

$108,791 Turns Into Key Support

In contrast, failure to sustain above resistance could lead to a retest of the $108,791 level, which now serves as a key support. A breakdown below this level may open the door for a deeper correction toward $108,000 or even lower.

Traders are advised to closely watch these levels as price action near them may define the next short-term trend in Bitcoin.

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Red Box and $108,791 Resistance Are Key

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is approaching the critical $108,791 resistance level. This area, which aligns with the red box zone, is technically significant. If Bitcoin can secure a close above this zone, the potential for a new ATH (All-Time High) becomes a realistic scenario.

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Recent consolidation phases have kept traders cautious, but a breakout here could signal a renewed bullish trend. Market volume and momentum are worth watching closely at this level.

Support Still Holding Well

On the downside, the $106,622 – $105,725 range remains a solid support area. It has continued to hold during recent pullbacks, showing buyer interest at those levels. Today’s upward movement was also strongly influenced by the breaking news that Israel has accepted a ceasefire—proving again how geopolitical factors can rapidly shift sentiment in the crypto market.

Right now, BTC is at a decision point. A breakout could mean new highs, while failure to breach the resistance might lead to another period of sideways movement.

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According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, long-term holders—known in crypto circles as “OGs”—have been systematically selling their BTC holdings to institutions. “They’re dumping on Wall Street,” Edwards said, explaining the persistent selling pressure.

New Cohorts Absorb the Sell-Off

Edwards highlighted that the six-month BTC holder group has absorbed nearly all of the supply sold by long-term holders over the last 18 months. This new cohort includes recent corporate entrants like Cardone Capital, ProCap (which is going public), Panther Metals, and Green Minerals.

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He believes these firms will spark a “massive Bitcoin treasury flywheel,” eventually overtaking the ETF narrative as more companies jump in to accumulate BTC.

Short-Term Caution Ahead of Economic Triggers

Meanwhile, BTSE’s Jeff Mei noted that traders are locking in profits ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, fearing unresolved trade tensions. He added that more public companies are starting to accumulate Bitcoin, though their impact may take time to materialize.

Han Xu from HashKey Capital pointed out that macroeconomic risks—such as tariff negotiations and budget legislation in the U.S.—are making investors cautious. Any unexpected developments “could trigger a sell-off,” he warned.

Despite these concerns, Bitcoin remains in a tight trading range between $102,000 and $110,000. On Monday, BTC briefly touched $108,750—its highest in two weeks—but failed to break resistance.

Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $3.2 billion in inflows in the past two weeks, with zero outflow days, and more Bitcoin treasury firms are appearing each week.

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Resistance Holding Firm

In the 4-hour timeframe, the previously mentioned 108,791 USD resistance level was tested. However, there was no convincing breakout, and Bitcoin faced rejection. This indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum for now.

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If Bitcoin manages to close above 108,791 USD, the next potential target range could be 111,000 – 112,000 USD. Until then, the market may remain range-bound.

Support Levels To Watch

On the downside, the nearest support zone lies between 106,622 and 105,725 USD. A drop below this range could lead to further corrective moves, while holding above might invite fresh buying interest.

A decisive move, preferably backed by volume, is needed to confirm a trend direction. Without that, price action may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, frustrating both bulls and bears.

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What is the Stablecoin Ratio Channel? 

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and the supply of stablecoins. This ratio is used to assess market liquidity and investor risk appetite. The short-term version of the SRC is sensitive to sudden changes in Bitcoin’s price and indicates whether selling pressure is increasing. 

What Do Short-Term Indicators Say? 

According to Alphractal, the short-term version of the SRC currently signals increasing selling pressure. This coincides with Bitcoin facing strong resistance in the $113,000–$114,000 range. Investors appear to be shifting from BTC to stablecoins at these levels. 

Long-Term Outlook 

On the other hand, the long-term SRC indicator is only halfway through its cycle. In past market cycles, this level typically signaled healthy corrections in bull markets and selling pressure in bear markets. According to the long-term version of the SRC, Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bull cycle. The trend has not yet reached its peak. Therefore, Alphractal analysts interpret the current situation not as negative but as a potential reaccumulation phase. 

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has risen to 5.3. This means that BTC reserves on exchanges are five times higher than stablecoin reserves, suggesting that potential selling pressure may outweigh buying pressure. 

According to Alphractal’s analysis, there is increasing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). However, long-term indicators suggest we are still in the middle of a cycle, and these levels have historically signaled healthy corrections. 

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Positive Signals, But No Market Impact Yet

Following two days of high-level negotiations, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the talks as productive and constructive. Bessent confirmed that even President Trump had been fully briefed on the progress, underscoring the White House’s close involvement.

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Greer noted that the agreement came faster than expected, suggesting that the differences between the two nations may not have been as significant as previously thought. Still, the real impact of this agreement will become clearer with tomorrow’s expected full briefing, where deal specifics are to be unveiled.

Bitcoin Holds Below 104,766$ Resistance

In crypto markets, all eyes are on Bitcoin (BTC). Despite the positive geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin has failed to break above the 104,766$ resistance level in the daily chart.

Should BTC manage to push past this ceiling, the potential for a new All-Time High (ATH) becomes plausible. Conversely, rejection at this level could lead to a downward move toward the 99,172$ support zone, which has historically acted as a key level of demand.

While geopolitical developments often stir market volatility, the muted reaction from Bitcoin suggests that traders are waiting for more clarity. The details expected in tomorrow’s announcement could serve as a catalyst for a significant move — either a breakout or a retracement — in the crypto space.

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Bitcoin Intraday Key Levels

The BTC/USDT pair has gained 0.55% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $95,947. Bitcoin (BTC) has broken the resistance level mentioned in our November 27th analysis and is continuing its upward movement. If it keeps rising, it could face resistance in the FVG region, ranging from $96,500 to $98,000. A 4-hour closing above this level will push the price toward the ATH resistance zone. Key support levels are at $94,700 and $91,213.

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Ethereum (ETH): The ETH/USDT pair has lost 1.86% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $3,567. Resistance levels for ETH are at $3,649 and $3,886. Support levels are at $3,527 and $3,440.

Algorand (ALGO): The ALGO/USDT pair has surged by 20.37% in the last 24 hours, currently at $0.34. Resistance levels are at $0.36 and $0.39. Support levels are at $0.328, with deeper corrections possible at $0.31.

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET): The FET/USDT pair has gained 10.71% in the last 24 hours, trading at $1.63. Resistance levels are at $1.71 and $1.74. Support levels are at $1.56, with further downside potential at $1.53.

Render (RENDER): The RENDER/USDT pair has increased by 7.47% in the past 24 hours, currently priced at $8.74. Resistance levels are at $8.96 and $9.33. Support levels are at $8.28, with a deeper drop possible at $7.46.

Trending Coins

In the last 24 hours, the most trending coins in the crypto market include Hyperliquid (HYPE), Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), and Grass (GRASS). The biggest gainers include ai16z (AI16Z), Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), and Act I The AI Prophecy (ACT). The biggest losers are Just a chill guy (CHILLGUY), Fwog (FWOG), and Echelon Prime (PRIME).

Bitcoin Liquidation Map

Looking at Bitcoin’s 12-hour liquidation map, the key liquidation level on the higher side is $97,844, with $31 million in liquidations. On the lower side, $94,827 is the main liquidation level, with $37 million in liquidations.

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