The historical impact of such shutdowns remains in investors’ minds. During a similar period in 2019, Bitcoin dropped by 16% before rallying nearly 300% within five months after the government reopened. This time, the decline has been more limited, yet uncertainty persists.

Bitcoin Price Holds Near $101K Support

Bitcoin is trading at $102,341, hovering above the key $101,477 support zone. However, bearish momentum remains as weak market conditions persist. Losing this critical level could trigger a drop toward $100,000. On the other hand, a successful rebound from support may lift BTC back toward $105,000, signaling renewed strength.

On November 12, 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $278 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $93 million exit. These figures suggest institutional investors are remaining cautious, which may extend short-term downside pressure on crypto prices.

According to analysts, the crypto market could see short-term relief once Washington reopens. JLabs Digital analyst Ben Lilly noted that expectations for rate cuts and potential liquidity injections from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could “create a strong tailwind for digital assets.”

Altcoins Under Pressure

Altcoins are sending mixed signals as selling pressure builds. The total crypto market cap is hovering just below the $3.43 trillion resistance. If investor confidence strengthens, the market could rebound toward $3.49 trillion. However, as long as cautious sentiment dominates, selling pressure is likely to persist.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, interest rate expectations, and weak risk appetite are fueling market uncertainty. While Bitcoin attempts to hold above its key support, altcoins continue to struggle under bearish sentiment.

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This price action has also impacted the share of BTC supply held in profit. According to Glassnode, as of August 1, Bitcoin’s supply in profit dropped to 91.71%, the lowest level in 41 days. This metric indicates what percentage of circulating BTC is currently held above acquisition cost. 

Historically, a decline in this metric reflects weakening market sentiment. Fewer holders remain in profit, which can increase selling pressure. As a result, short-term corrections in BTC’s price become more likely. 

Long/Short Ratio Falls: Leverage Traders Pull Back 

The derivatives market also shows signs of reduced bullish sentiment. BTC’s long/short ratio has dropped to 0.96, falling below the key 1.0 threshold. This ratio compares the number of long positions to short ones. A figure below 1 suggests more traders are betting on a price decline than a rise. 

At the same time, the decrease in long exposure creates room for downward movement. Unless a new bullish catalyst emerges, BTC may struggle to regain upward momentum. 

Additionally, trading volume has significantly decreased. Daily volume, which peaked during July’s rally, is now showing signs of weakening market participation. The combination of weaker demand and rising profit-taking strengthens the bearish short-term outlook. 

Which Levels Could Bitcoin Test Next? 

Based on current technical indicators, Bitcoin could test the $111,855 support zone in the short term. This level is viewed as a key threshold by many market participants. If buyer interest strengthens here, BTC could recover toward $116,952. 

Meanwhile, $120,000 remains a critical resistance level for bullish continuation. Breaking through this zone may rebuild investor confidence and trigger fresh momentum. However, this would require an uptick in trading volume and a visible shift in market sentiment. 

Moreover, upcoming macroeconomic developments and possible ETF-related news could act as external catalysts. For now, caution dominates BTC’s short-term outlook.

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The current developments near critical thresholds may be decisive not only for direction but also for market sentiment.

Strong Bounce from a Key Support

Recently, Bitcoin pulled back to the 106,506$ level, where it found robust support. This level acted as a springboard, fueling a swift upward movement that brought the price back into technically significant territory.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

One area drawing particular attention is the bullish FVG zone (108,725$ – 107,972$) formed during this upward move. As long as the price remains above this zone, the potential for further gains remains solid.

What If the Zone Breaks Down?

However, caution is warranted. Should Bitcoin fall below the FVG zone, a retest of the 106,506$ support level becomes increasingly likely. Such a move could significantly impact short-term sentiment and decision-making among market participants.

Keeping a close eye on these levels and preparing for potential volatility is essential for traders.

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The post Bitcoin Tests Key Threshold: Is a New Rally on the Horizon? appeared first on Coin Engineer.