What Bitcoin RSI Data Is Signaling

RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset trades in overbought or oversold territory. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions and increase the probability of a short- to medium-term price reaction. Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions and elevated pullback risk.

TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s weekly RSI currently sits just below 37. The last time RSI reached similar levels was December 2022, when Bitcoin formed a bear market bottom near $16,500. Over the following two and a half years, BTC rallied roughly 660%, reaching a new all-time high in October. The broader weekly trend remains firmly intact.

The Four-Year Cycle Debate Resurfaces

Julien Bittel strongly rejects the idea that Bitcoin strictly follows a four-year halving-driven cycle. He argues that historical cycles aligned more closely with public debt refinancing schedules and global liquidity conditions than with halving events themselves. Post-COVID fiscal expansion pushed this cycle roughly one year forward.

According to Bittel, when financial conditions, business cycles, and liquidity dynamics are analyzed together, the probability favors a bull market extending well into 2026. This framework helps explain why rising volatility has not yet invalidated the broader bullish structure.

Bittel further emphasizes that the traditional four-year cycle no longer applies. He attributes this shift to the extension of government debt maturities and the monetization of interest expenses that now exceed GDP growth. This structural change increases the likelihood of a prolonged cycle rather than a premature market peak.

What Macro Analysts Are Saying

Macroeconomic analysts at Milk Road support this interpretation. They argue that short-term oversold signals should never be viewed in isolation. Liquidity conditions and the stage of the business cycle remain the dominant drivers.

As long as capital flows continue to improve, these pullbacks tend to evolve into higher-price consolidation phases over time. The biggest mistake, they warn, is assuming every correction marks the beginning of a new bear market.

Short-Term Price Outlook

BTC has declined 4.2% over the past seven days and is trading near $86,600 at the time of writing. While near-term momentum remains pressured, on-chain and macro indicators suggest the move fits within a broader bullish cycle. Risk appetite appears temporarily reduced rather than structurally broken.

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