Park argues that this shift stems from the decreasing influence of supply-driven shocks. While miner economics and halving events once played a major role in shaping medium-term market behavior, those variables have lost their power. Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory today is increasingly dictated by ETF flows and institutional decision-making patterns.

The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes

Historically, Bitcoin major bull runs were reinforced by a combination of reduced supply, rising media attention, and aggressive retail participation. These elements created a self-reinforcing cycle that repeatedly aligned with the halving timeline. Park asserts that this model no longer defines the market, noting that supply constraints have limited influence in an environment dominated by large asset managers.

In the institutional era, fund managers’ year-end performance targets and liquidity considerations have become central to Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle

Park highlights that professional investors tend to reassess their risk exposure around annual P&L periods, making them more likely to exit volatile assets during periods of uncertainty. Even prolonged sideways movement, he notes, can trigger selling pressure.

Another structural factor is the divide between ETF inflows. While most capital that entered during 2024 remains in profit, a significant portion of 2025 entrants is underwater. This creates a decision crossroads for institutional players:

• wait for a stronger rally, or

• consider exiting positions at a loss.

This dynamic could form a pivotal stress point within Bitcoin’s emerging two-year cycle.

The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region

Park emphasizes that the current price area around 84,000 dollars is a key threshold for ETF investors, serving as a rough average cost basis for many institutions. Large inflows recorded between October and November 2024 mean these investors require substantial performance through 2026 to meet their compounded return expectations. Failure to achieve this may activate the two-year evaluation window and potentially introduce new waves of institutional selling.

Time as a Pressure Mechanism

One of Park’s most notable claims is that time itself has become a headwind. Bitcoin is often presented to investment committees as an asset capable of generating annualized returns of 25–30 percent. When price growth stalls, the expected return profile declines even without a drop in price, weakening Bitcoin appeal relative to its risk. In the institutional environment, this could trigger a new form of structural sell pressure.

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The post Bitwise Analyst Warns: “Bitcoin Cycles Have Shifted to Two Years” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

“The Real Bull Run Has Yet to Begin”

Following Bitcoin’s brief drop below $100,000 earlier this week, Mow remarked that the current price range only slightly outpaces inflation:

“The Bitcoin bull run hasn’t started yet. At these levels, we’re only marginally outperforming inflation.”

Analysts have attributed the recent downturn to U.S.–China trade tensions and broader macroeconomic headwinds. Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin dipped to $99,607 on Wednesday.

Despite the pullback, Mow remains optimistic. In a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter), he emphasized that Bitcoin still has “plenty of upside,” highlighting that it continues to outperform the 3% U.S. inflation rate.

The “Christmas Candle” and 2026 Outlook

When asked whether Bitcoin might experience a dramatic holiday surge — often referred to as a “Christmas god candle” — Mow confidently replied that he was “not uncertain.”

The Jan3 founder, who has previously predicted a sharp move toward $1 million per BTC, also commented on market cycle theories:

“Bitcoin has been mostly flat throughout 2025. If you believe in cycles, then it hasn’t topped yet. That could mean a cycle peak in 2026 — or perhaps a long, generational bull run similar to gold’s post-ETF era.”

Mow: “Bitcoin OGs Aren’t Selling”

Macro analyst Jordi Visser recently suggested that Bitcoin is in a phase where early holders are offloading their coins to new market participants. Mow dismissed these claims, arguing that such fears are exaggerated:

“People are fearful because they created their own theory that OGs are selling above $0.1M. It’s incredible how people self-sabotage with fear. Focus on the big picture — Bitcoin will add another zero, it’s only a matter of when.”

He added that he doesn’t know “any OGs who are actually selling,” reinforcing his belief in long-term accumulation among early adopters.

Jan3’s Take on Market Sentiment

While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen back into “extreme fear” territory, Jan3’s internal model paints the opposite picture:

“The market is crying, but Bitcoiners are still stacking. The index reads 23 — which for us means extreme greed, because Bitcoiners fear missing sats, not price drops.”

Mow’s remarks suggest that despite temporary volatility, long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains strong, and the next true bull cycle may only be getting ready to start.

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The post Samson Mow: “The Bitcoin Bull Run Hasn’t Started Yet” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Crypto Supercycle

Bernstein maintains its long-term thesis: the current crypto upswing may persist until 2027, despite a brief cooling period. The firm cites supportive U.S. policies, accelerating institutional adoption, and the market expanding beyond Bitcoin as key drivers. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra forecast a long and tiring cycle maintaining momentum until 2026, with a peak likely a year later.

Policy, Adoption, and Market Breadth

According to Bernstein, U.S. leadership is operating in mission-critical mode to establish the country as a crypto capital, creating a long runway for digital assets. In the next phase, the market will extend beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi tokens driving inflows to trading platforms and stablecoin issuers. The overall takeaway is a supercycle characterized by deep liquidity, policy clarity, and market breadth, inviting large investors to participate.

Stablecoins and Circle

Bernstein keeps Circle’s target price at $230. USDC supply is projected to rise from $68 billion in 2026 to $99 billion, and then to $173 billion in 2027. USDC is expected to serve as a liquidity backbone for DeFi, while bank and payment partnerships will offset interest rate sensitivity. Circle’s payment-focused Arc blockchain and increasing on-chain settlement share stand out as differentiating factors, ensuring inflows to platforms and issuers continue through 2027 as the market expands beyond Bitcoin.

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The post Bernstein: “Crypto Bull Run Could Last Until 2027!” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The volume of leveraged positions could drive BTC to an all-time high. In particular, concerns about U.S. fiscal debt are fueling this rise. Disagreements between Democratic and Republican lawmakers are increasing economic uncertainty. Yields on 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds are hovering near 5%, up from 4.82%. Weak demand is pushing the U.S. Federal Reserve to intervene directly in the market. This weakens the U.S. dollar, driving investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. 

Gold Dominates, Bitcoin Shines in Reserve Allocations 

Gold continues to lead among alternative assets. However, with a 24% gain in 2025 and a $22 trillion market cap, it’s becoming less attractive to some investors. For comparison, the S&P 500 is valued at $53 trillion, and U.S. bank deposits stand at $18.6 trillion. Bitcoin, on the other hand, forms a $2.1 trillion asset class, comparable to silver. 

Some countries plan to shift 5% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin. This move could generate approximately $105 billion in new market inflows, equivalent to 1 million BTC at a price of $105,000 per BTC. For instance, Michael Saylor’s Strategy company currently holds 576,230 BTC. As institutional investors buy Bitcoin, breaking the $108,000 level becomes feasible. When the rally begins, investors close short positions, pushing prices to new record highs. On the other hand, macroeconomic uncertainties reduce investor sentiment and dampen market risk appetite. 

Bitcoin is approaching the $107,000 threshold. Short positions face the risk of forced liquidation. Investors are preparing for BTC bull run. Closely monitoring the market is critical. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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The post Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Peak: Bulls Ready to Break Records!  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Ethereum Targets $4,570 

Ethereum broke out from a low of $1,386. By surpassing the $2,517 peak, it formed a rounding bottom pattern. This pattern signals a trend reversal. If the price holds above $2,500, an 81% surge is possible. The target is calculated at $4,570. Trading above the 200-day EMA supports the rally. 

ETH Approaches Profitability 

According to IntoTheBlock data, 6.61 million investors could make 66.96 million ETH profitable. The average purchase price is $2,462. If the price exceeds $2,557, this supply will become profitable. This could create a strong support zone. Investors expect the uptrend to continue. 

Coinglass data shows $786 million in short position liquidations at $2,586. A 3% rise could trigger a short squeeze. Conversely, $715 million in long positions are at risk at $2,438. Both scenarios could increase volatility. The Pectra upgrade is a supporting factor for the rally. 

Bearish Scenario and Support Levels 

If Ethereum loses the 50% Fibonacci level at $2,430, the bullish thesis weakens. A drop below the 200-day EMA could test the 100-day EMA at $2,144. Bulls must defend these levels. Otherwise, bearish pressure increases. 

The profitability of 67 million ETH could accelerate the rally. Technical analysis supports the $4,570 target. $3,000 forms a psychological stop point. Investors are optimistic due to the Pectra upgrade and market rally. However, liquidation risks require attention. 

****NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE*** 

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The post Ethereum Price Surpasses $2,500: Bull Run Begins  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to Binance, the number of wallets holding $100 or more in Bitcoin increased from 24 million in January 2024 to nearly 30 million in 2025, representing a 25% annual growth rate.

Binance’s blog stated:

“This trend indicates that new participants are entering the market and that interest in cryptocurrencies is on the rise once again.”

An increase in such wallet numbers is typically observed during bull runs, such as in 2017 and 2021. A similar surge was seen in mid-2024 when Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 level.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accelerated institutional adoption. By the end of 2024, ETFs held a total of 1.25 million BTC, with IBIT amassing assets worth over $50 billion.

Hashrate Reaches All-Time High

The security of the Bitcoin network has reached a historic peak, with the hashrate surpassing 800 EH/s, a 33% increase from last year’s 600 EH/s level.

Binance’s blog highlighted:

“Bitcoin’s hashrate has outpaced the combined computing power of tech giants like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. These platforms collectively account for less than 1% of the Bitcoin network’s capacity.”

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Hashrate measures the computational power used to process and secure Bitcoin transactions. A higher hashrate makes the network more secure and resistant to attacks. It also reflects strong mining activity and high confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

86% of Bitcoin Holders Are in Profit!

Market sentiment remains strong, with 86% of circulating Bitcoin currently in profit, according to CryptoQuant. Accumulation addresses continue to buy Bitcoin at a record monthly pace of 495,000 BTC.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasized differences in Bitcoin investor behavior. On X (formerly Twitter), he shared:
“Retail investors holding less than 1 BTC are selling, while those holding 1 BTC or more are buying.”

Ju believes the Bitcoin bull market is in its final stages. He describes the current cycle as being in the “early distribution phase,” where new retail participants are entering the market while institutional interest remains strong.

Preparing for a New Cycle

Ju observed a different pattern in this cycle:

• OG retail investors and whales are transferring Bitcoin to new retail participants and institutional investors.
• Institutional players are holding “paper Bitcoin” through ETFs and company shares.
• The final distribution phase is expected to be largely retail-dominated, occurring around mid-2025 or later in the year.

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The Big Whale is Back in Action!

This whale has a history of making large ETH purchases. Between October 2nd, 2018, and November 13th, 2022, they accumulated 35,176 ETH, worth $15 million at the time, at a price of $428 per ETH.

However, on October 20th, 2023, they sold all of their ETH for $1,610 each, netting a profit of $41.6 million. Despite this seemingly profitable move, the price of ETH surged to $4 shortly after the sale, marking the beginning of a new bull run.

Had the Whale Held…

If the whale had held onto their 2018 ETH purchases, they would currently be sitting on a staggering $122 million profit.

The post Ethereum Whale Makes Another Massive Purchase! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

This time the central topic of the forum will be making money on Bull Run, which has already begun. Forum speakers and attendees will share analytics and experience: which coins to buy and sell, which coins are worth investing in now, and which are better not to invest in.

More than 8,000 people from more than 120 countries take part in the grand event.

Learn more and buy a ticket with “Engineer” Code:
https://blockchain-life.com

Confirmed speakers include top figures in the global crypto market such as:

• Justin Sun (Founder of TRON, Member of the HTX Global Advisory Board)
• Sergei Khitrov (Founder of Listing.Help, Jets.Capital and Blockchain Life)  
• Rachel Conlan (CMO of Binance)
• Paolo Ardoino (CEO of Tether, CTO of Bitfinex)
• Stephan Lutz (CEO and CFO of BitMEX)
• Yat Siu (Co-Founder of Animoca Brands)
• Dominic Williams (Founder and Chief Scientist of DFINITY (ICP))
• Ben Goertzel (CEO of SingularityNET)
• Xinxi Wang (Co-Founder of Litecoin Foundation)
• Andrei Grachev (Managing partner of DWF Labs)
  and over 100 other speakers

For a grand conclusion of the event, VIP ticket holders and forum speakers will have the exclusive opportunity to attend the main crypto party of 2024 – the legendary Blockchain Life AfterParty.
The special guest at the AfterParty is the globally renowned hitmaker, Alan Walker, who will be performing an amazing live concert.

But the excitement doesn’t stop there. On April 13-21, the crypto community can immerse themselves in a fantastic Blockchain Life Week, filled with exciting parties and events organized by various industry companies.

A VIP ticket to Blockchain Life 2024 allows for free access to some of those events in order to achieve a new level of networking experience.

Buy tickets while they’re still available with a promo code “Engineer” and make the most of the current Bull Run: https://blockchain-life.com

The post Blockchain Life Forum 2024 in Dubai: find out how to make the most of the current Bull Run appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin’s Rise that Exceeds Market Dynamics (Bull Run)

Historically, increases in Bitcoin’s value typically occurred in tandem with rises in traditional markets, such as the NASDAQ and S&P 500. However, this bull run shows several important differences. Interestingly, the rise in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the U.S. Treasury yields did not have a negative effect on Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, the market continued to gain value despite these factors.

The Role of the Dollar and Global Adoption of Bitcoin

One of the main reasons for the uniqueness of this bull run is the weakening of the dollar globally and increasing adoption of Bitcoin among institutional and individual investors. Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized by more investors as a reliable store of value and investment opportunity.

In the U.S., the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) is another important factor that sets this bull period apart from previous ones. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs brought new volume and investor interest to the crypto market. Over $8 billion in capital flowed to these funds within the first two months, causing a significant revival in the market.

Foresight Into Bitcoin’s Future

The recent surge in Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market could be interpreted as a sign of market maturation and wider investor acceptance. Particularly, increased interest from institutional investors and deeper integration within financial systems are giving positive signals for the future of cryptocurrencies.

These developments could mark a turning point in Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional financial systems and its overall position in the global financial landscape. It indicates that Bitcoin and other crypto assets are increasingly being recognized as an alternative safe haven for investors, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.

The performance that Bitcoin exhibited during this recent bull phase is not only a reflection of current market conditions, but also an indicator of the evolution of cryptocurrencies’ position and role within financial markets. Increased institutional adoption, innovations in financial products, and generally growing interest in cryptocurrencies could shape future bull periods of Bitcoin with different dynamics.

These developments demonstrate that Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are not just a passing fad but have become an integral part of financial markets.

The post New Bull Run for Bitcoin: Why is it Different from the Others? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

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The 2020-2021 bull run and the fate of projects

According to CoinGecko data, many projects that entered the cryptocurrency world following the 2020-2021 bull run, one of the most notable periods in recent years, failed to survive. During this period, a total of 7,530 projects withdrew from the market. A similar fate befell 1,450 projects from the previous 2017-2018 bull run.

The rise of token creation and the meme coin trend

According to the CoinGecko report, behind the failure of a large portion of the projects in the 2020-2021 period, there are factors such as the token becoming more accessible and the exploding popularity of meme coins. This made it easier for projects to be launched, but it also increased competition and affected quality standards in the industry.

2022 and 2023: The current state of projects (CoinGecko report)

The number of projects that are currently active within the 3,520 projects launched in 2022 is quite limited. However, 289 of the projects launched in 2023 are currently inactive. Staying afloat and succeeding in the sector requires a focus on sustainable business models in addition to technological innovations.

Lessons and insights for the future

This intense competitive environment in the crypto world requires investors and projects to make careful choices, keep a close eye on developments in technology and finance, and constantly update their marketing strategies. However, it is emphasized that success is possible not only with these elements but also with a strong community and a sustainable business plan.

The future of the crypto world

CoinGecko’s report shows the increasingly complex nature of the cryptocurrency world. This industry is a playing field for projects that can adapt to the constantly changing dynamics and move with a strong vision. In order to be successful in the future, projects need to focus not only on technology, but also on financial sustainability, user-friendly experiences, and a strong community.

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