Edwards also pointed out a common mistake among investors: the constant attempt to perfectly identify the market bottom. In his view, Bitcoin’s present price structure indicates that the asset is positioned closer to long-term support areas than to previous market peaks, suggesting that valuations may already reflect a significant portion of downside risk.

A Key Valuation Range for Bitcoin

One of the analytical frameworks Edwards highlighted involves Bitcoin’s production cost model. This model evaluates the cost of mining Bitcoin and uses it as a benchmark for understanding long-term value.

Based on this approach, Edwards noted that the $50,000 to $60,000 range represents a meaningful value zone for Bitcoin. Historically, mining costs have often aligned with key support levels in the market, making them a useful indicator when evaluating price floors.

While these levels do not guarantee immediate upside, they may indicate that Bitcoin is trading within a historically attractive valuation band relative to its underlying production economics.

Quantum Computing Concerns

A particularly notable part of Edwards’ discussion focused on the potential implications of quantum computing for Bitcoin’s long-term security model. He argued that the topic has not yet received the level of attention it may deserve within the Bitcoin development community.

According to Edwards, some institutional investors have already expressed caution regarding this technological uncertainty. The possibility that future quantum computing breakthroughs could challenge existing cryptographic standards has led certain market participants to limit or reconsider their Bitcoin allocations.

He suggested that until the ecosystem begins implementing clear quantum-resistant solutions, the uncertainty could act as a psychological barrier preventing Bitcoin from reaching new all-time highs.

The Role of Macro Liquidity

Edwards also emphasized that macroeconomic conditions remain a major driver of cryptocurrency markets. In particular, potential interest rate cuts in the United States and expansionary fiscal policies could provide supportive conditions for risk assets.

Such an environment could improve liquidity across financial markets, which historically has benefited assets like Bitcoin.

However, Edwards cautioned that rising energy prices could complicate this outlook. If oil prices were to climb above $100 per barrel, it could introduce additional pressure on global equity markets and potentially affect broader risk sentiment.

The Debate Around Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Another topic raised during the discussion involved the growing number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Edwards believes that the increasing presence of these so-called “Bitcoin treasury companies” may not be sustainable over the long term.

He suggested that many of these firms could eventually consolidate or disappear as market dynamics evolve. Companies that have adopted debt-financed Bitcoin accumulation strategies may also need to adapt their business models in the future, potentially expanding into financial services or lending activities to remain viable.

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The post Analyst: “New ATHs Difficult Until This Bitcoin Risk is Resolved” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Institutional Demand and Gold’s Role

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes Bitcoin could set a new all-time high before the year ends, reaching $150,000. He points out that the surge in gold as a safe-haven asset is fueling institutional appetite for Bitcoin, adding further momentum to the market.

According to Edwards, surpassing the psychological threshold of $120,000 may trigger a rapid rally toward $150,000, potentially unfolding within days.

In the past week, Bitcoin has gained more than 6%, reclaiming the $118,500 level for the first time since mid-August.

The $200K Outlook

While Edwards’ forecast is bullish, some analysts are even more optimistic. Several market experts suggest that this cycle could push Bitcoin above $200,000.

André Dragosch, Head of Research in Europe at Bitwise Asset Management, highlights the potential impact of including cryptocurrencies in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans. He estimates that this could unlock as much as $122 billion in new capital. Even a modest 1% allocation by retirement managers could be enough to propel Bitcoin beyond $200,000 by year’s end.

Market Cycles and Investor Psychology

Edwards also emphasizes the relevance of the four-year cycle theory, which has long been a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s market behavior. He describes it as increasingly “self-fulfilling,” with investors positioning themselves based on cyclical expectations.

He notes that the probability of three strong months to close the year is “just over 50%.” However, he cautions that the real driving force remains institutional buying, and any slowdown in that demand could significantly alter his outlook.

Historical Trends Back the Bullish Case

Bitcoin’s track record during the final quarter of the year strengthens the bullish narrative. Historical data shows average monthly returns of around 20% in October, a remarkable 46% in November, and a modest 4% in December.

Technical indicators also reinforce the positive sentiment. Analysts are pointing to an emerging golden cross pattern, which may act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to target $150,000 in the fourth quarter.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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BTC achieved its highest daily close in history on December 11, with six-figure price action making a strong comeback.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

BTC/USD recently closed its daily candle at around $101,200. On Bitstamp, this matched the December 8th close, marking the highest recorded closing so far.

Bulls have managed to move away from the local lows of $94,000 seen earlier in the week. “The crucial level in Bitcoin is still defined,” said trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe in his latest analysis on X.

“If the markets stay above that area, it’s likely that we’ll see new ATH’s in the coming days.”

Will Bitcoin Set a New ATH?

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Market observers commenting noted that market stability has continued alongside Bitcoin’s recent journey to $100,000 and beyond.

“Bitcoin quietly achieved its highest daily close ever,” wrote Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, in a December 12th X post.

“Meanwhile funding rates are below normal, leverage still wiped and ETFs are seeing day after day of relentless inflows.”

Edwards referred to the clearing of leveraged positions resulting from the sudden market volatility seen this week and last.

Short positions felt the pressure during the rebound, and according to data from CoinGlass, 24-hour crypto liquidations reached a total of $270 million at the time of writing.

Liquidations Chart

Speculation on Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin Futures Basis Comparison. Source: Zaheer Ebtikar/X

Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of the crypto fund Split Capital, shared additional data supporting the lack of excessive market risk. He noted that while Bitcoin approaches all-time highs, the futures basis remains unusually low.

Zaheer Ebtikar wrote, “I can’t explain to you how absolutely insane this image is.”

He shared this with his X followers, alongside an explanatory chart. The futures basis refers to the difference between spot and futures market prices, measured as a percentage of the spot price.

In Bitcoin bull markets, when all-time highs are reached, this difference can reach 30% or more, reflecting increased speculation about future BTC price growth.

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