Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Changing

Speaking on the New Era Finance Podcast, Hougan said that many of Bitcoin’s past sharp declines were largely driven by market psychology. For years, investors have acted according to the expectation of a four-year market cycle, and Hougan believes this narrative has sometimes triggered chain reactions of selling. According to Hougan, large Bitcoin holders often sold their holdings when they believed the cycle was nearing its end, creating downward pressure on the market. He added that options strategies and fears about the cycle’s conclusion have also influenced investor behavior.

“The main reason Bitcoin dropped was that large investors sold due to the four-year cycle expectation.”

Gold’s Rally and the “Digital Gold” Debate

During a period when Bitcoin experienced declines, Gold reached record highs. This caused some investors to question the “digital gold” narrative often associated with Bitcoin. However, Hougan argued that the reason is relatively simple. Since 2022, central banks have been purchasing large amounts of physical gold. Following the Russia‑Ukraine War, the freezing of certain countries’ assets led many governments to reconsider their reserve strategies. As a result, gold has been strongly supported by state-level buyers, while Bitcoin still reacts more sensitively to the psychological cycles of retail and institutional investors. Hougan also pointed out that gold’s roughly $30 trillion market value is not negative for Bitcoin. Instead, it demonstrates how large the store-of-value market can be.

Institutional Investors Could Reshape the Next Bull Market

Hougan reminded listeners that previous crypto bull markets were largely driven by aggressive retail buying. However, he believes institutional investors will play a much more decisive role in the next cycle. Institutional investors typically accumulate assets gradually each quarter, which could lead to a more stable market environment.

“Compared to previous bull markets, we may see a market that is less volatile, rising more gradually, and perhaps a bit more ‘boring.’”

Hougan’s “Mount Rushmore” of Crypto Projects

According to Hougan, the crypto market is no longer just about Bitcoin. Institutional interest is increasingly concentrated in a few major blockchain projects, which he described as the “Mount Rushmore of crypto.”

The projects he highlighted include:

• Ethereum
• Solana
• Chainlink

Hougan particularly emphasized Chainlink, noting that it provides critical infrastructure by connecting blockchains with real-world data. According to him, if Chainlink were a traditional technology company, it would likely be considered one of the most attractive investments in the tech sector.

Overall Assessment

According to Matt Hougan, the recent downturn in the crypto market is driven more by investor psychology and cycle expectations than by macroeconomic developments alone. The widely discussed four-year cycle narrative has influenced selling decisions among some large investors, creating short-term pressure on prices. However, the growing presence of institutional capital suggests that the crypto market could become more stable and mature over time. Hougan’s focus on infrastructure projects like Chainlink also highlights that institutional interest is expanding beyond Bitcoin into other parts of the blockchain ecosystem.

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Bitcoin Still at the Top

Matt Hougan describes Bitcoin as the clear winner in the digital store-of-value category. In his view, Bitcoin remains unrivaled in the digital gold narrative and is set to maintain its leadership in this space over the long term. Factors such as its limited supply, global recognition, and growing institutional adoption distinguish Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies.

Hougan stated:

“I am fully confident that Bitcoin will win the digital gold and store-of-value category. I believe this race is largely over, and Bitcoin has won.”

He notes that Bitcoin is now on the radar not only of individual investors but also of institutional funds and potential sovereign reserves. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising institutional adoption strengthen BTC’s role in the financial system. Hougan emphasizes that, with institutional interest and potential government purchases, Bitcoin is expected to remain the strongest cryptocurrency over the long term. One of Hougan’s most notable assessments involves possible government purchases. The Bitwise CIO estimates a 10–25% probability of the U.S. government actively buying Bitcoin. If realized, this scenario could push Bitcoin’s price above $500,000. Hougan believes markets are largely overlooking this potential. Discussions Bitwise has had with central banks and sovereign wealth funds suggest that some countries may have already begun acquiring Bitcoin.

Ethereum and Solana: Smart Contract Competition

Regarding smart contract platforms, Hougan argues that investing in multiple strong projects is a healthier strategy than focusing on a single winner. He identifies Ethereum and Solana as the two leading ecosystems, both demonstrating strong growth potential through developer activity, user numbers, and application diversity. Ethereum retains a leadership position in terms of institutional adoption and the DeFi ecosystem, while Solana continues to attract users with high transaction speeds and low costs. Hougan believes that this competitive dynamic will ultimately drive long-term sector growth. Therefore, he suggests a diversified approach within the smart contract platform category is more balanced and strategic than focusing on a single project.

Surprise Pick: Chainlink

One of Hougan’s most interesting picks is Chainlink. He expects oracle infrastructure to become increasingly critical as stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization grow, with Chainlink positioned as the strongest player in this space. Hougan highlights that tokenization opportunities are not limited to stablecoins; the tokenization of global equities, bonds, and real estate represents a massive market potential.

“Tokenization is a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. For this system to work, you need oracle infrastructure, and Chainlink could dominate this field,” he said.

Bitwise’s launch of a Chainlink ETF in early 2026 is also seen as a potential catalyst for LINK. Matt Hougan’s four crypto picks for 2026 provide key signals from a corporate investor perspective. While Bitcoin continues to assert its dominance, Ethereum and Solana remain strong in the smart contract ecosystem. Chainlink emerges as a potential surprise star, driven by tokenization and infrastructure growth. During this bearish market phase, institutional strategies continue to offer critical guidance for investors.

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Since peaking at approximately $4.4 trillion in October, the total crypto market capitalization has fallen by around 44%, wiping out close to $2 trillion in value in just four months. While the scale of the decline appears severe on the surface, Nazarov argues that the underlying dynamics differ meaningfully from previous downturns.

No Systemic Failures This Time

One of the most striking differences, according to Nazarov, is the absence of major institutional collapses. In contrast to the 2022 cycle—defined by failures of centralized exchanges and crypto lending platforms—this downturn has not produced large-scale bankruptcies or cascading risk management breakdowns.

This resilience suggests that crypto infrastructure and institutional participants are better equipped to handle volatility. The fact that core market structures remain intact indicates that the ecosystem has strengthened its risk controls and operational foundations over time.

Real-World Asset Tokenization Keeps Expanding

Another key factor separating this cycle from earlier bear markets is the continued growth of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). Even as crypto prices remain under pressure, RWA tokenization and on-chain derivatives tied to traditional commodities continue to scale.

On-chain data shows that the total value of tokenized real-world assets has increased by roughly 300% over the past 12 months. This trend underscores that certain blockchain use cases are no longer tightly linked to speculative price movements and can grow independently based on real economic utility.

Prices Lag, Infrastructure Advances

While these structural developments are accelerating, they have not yet translated into price strength for all related assets. Chainlink’s native token, LINK, has declined approximately 67% from its October peak and remains more than 80% below its 2021 all-time high.

However, Nazarov emphasizes that long-term value creation is being driven by infrastructure rather than short-term market sentiment. Features such as 24/7 on-chain markets, transparent collateralization, and real-time data availability are increasingly attractive to institutional participants.

Not All Bear Markets Are the Same

These observations align with a broader view emerging among some institutional analysts who describe the current downturn as one of the weakest bear scenarios in Bitcoin’s history. Rather than reflecting systemic failure, the decline appears driven largely by confidence issues and broader macroeconomic conditions.

Taken together, the current environment suggests that while prices remain under pressure, the crypto industry continues to evolve beneath the surface—potentially reshaping its long-term role in global financial markets.

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The protocol revolves around two main products: the dollar-based cUSD and the yield-generating stcUSD. This structure enables Cap to provide both a secure digital dollar standard and a savings product with clearly defined risks and downside protection.

Core Vision of the CAP (rCAP) Protocol

Cap focuses on two long-standing fundamental problems in the stablecoin ecosystem: fragmentation and the lack of reliable yield.

Today’s stablecoin market presents a scattered picture with different issuers, incompatible reserve structures, and closed systems. Cap aims to position itself as a neutral and open aggregation layer built on top of this complex structure. Through smart contracts and market mechanisms, it delivers a financial infrastructure where trust is verified by code.

The protocol is built on two main principles:

• Open protocols: Open-source, autonomous systems provide transparency and resilience. Financial guarantees should be based on verifiable code, not human promises.
• Market-driven design: Reward and penalty mechanisms are structured to minimize human intervention.

What is cUSD?

cUSD is a 1:1 redeemable digital dollar issued on Ethereum and usable across different networks. The reserve of cUSD consists of “blue-chip” stablecoins from regulated and transparently audited institutions. These include assets such as USDC, USDT, pyUSD, BUIDL, and BENJI.

The key difference of cUSD is that it is not tied to a single issuer. Users can redeem cUSD 1:1 for any asset in the reserve. The entire process operates on-chain, and no reserve asset is given preferential treatment.

This structure aims to rebuild the principle of “singleness of money” in the stablecoin world. Just as the dollar represents the same value regardless of which bank holds it in interbank systems, cUSD aggregates different stablecoins under a single liquid and interoperable standard.

What is stcUSD?

stcUSD is a yield-generating savings product obtained by staking cUSD. However, what distinguishes stcUSD from similar products is that its yield is fully collateralized and protected against downside risk.

Today, many yield-bearing stablecoin products rely on strategies managed by centralized teams. This creates serious issues in terms of both scalability and security. stcUSD reverses this model.

In Cap, yield generation is performed by an open network of operators. Operators generate yield through advanced strategies such as arbitrage, MEV, RWAs, and similar methods. However, the risk of this yield is borne by delegators through restaked ETH or staked assets.

As a result, users:

• Are not directly exposed to the risk of yield generation
• Can verify the protection of their principal on-chain
• Gain access to competitive yields independent of market conditions

How Does the Cap Ecosystem Work?

Cap is designed as a three-sided marketplace:

• Users: Mint cUSD or stake into stcUSD
• Operators: Implement institutional-grade yield strategies
• Delegators: Provide collateral to secure the system

This structure operates through Cap’s “Shared Security Network” approach. Operators must post collateral to participate in the system. Failed or risky behavior is prevented through automatic penalty (slashing) mechanisms.

Cap Protocol Modules

The Cap infrastructure consists of six main modules:

• Vault: Holds reserve assets and performs cUSD minting
• Lender: Manages borrowing, repayment, liquidation, and interest calculations
• Fee Auction: Converts generated yield into cUSD via Dutch auction
• Delegation: Manages collateral, rewards, and slashing processes
• Oracles: Provides the oracle layer for asset prices and interest rates
• Access Controls: Implements detailed permissioning across the protocol

The system uses Chainlink oracles for price accuracy.

What is the CAP (rCAP) Token?

CAP (rCAP) is the governance and ecosystem token of the Cap protocol.

Use Cases

• Governance:

  • Protocol parameters
  • Collateral management
  • Operator admission processes
  • Fee structures

• Protocol Integration (planned):

  • Staking mechanisms for operators, delegators, and users

CAP (rCAP) Tokenomics

• Ecosystem development: 46.72%
• Team: up to 20%
• Investors: up to 20%
• Community ICO: 10%
• Echo community sale: 3.28%

CAP (rCAP) Investors

Cap has raised a total of $9.90 million to date. The project has received support from leading names in the crypto industry as well as institutional actors with traditional finance backgrounds.

• Tier 1: Sandeep Nailwal, Bryan Pellegrino
• Tier 2: Triton Capital (formerly Kraken Ventures), GSR, Robot Ventures, RockawayX
• Tier 3: Franklin Templeton Investments, Selini Capital, Anagram Crypto, ABCDE, Flow Traders, Laser Digital, Superscrypt, Caladan, Paper Ventures, Breed VC
• Tier 4: Presto Labs, CMCC Global, Auros Global, nonce Classic, Fasanara Digital, Curved Ventures, SCB Limited
• Others: Kain Warwick, Flowdesk, Jason Yanowitz, Fernando Martinelli, Spencer Noon, Ekram Ahmed, IMC Trading, 0xSoju, Namik Muduroglu, Lucas Kozinski, Sam MacPherson, Sonya Kim

CAP (rCAP) Team

The core team of Cap consists of experienced individuals in DeFi and infrastructure development:

• Benjamin – Founder
• Weso – CTO and Founding Member
• DeFi Dave – Head of Growth

Official Links

• Website
• X (Twitter)
• Whitepaper

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The Structural Mismatch Holding Onchain Markets Back

Traditional U.S. equity markets operate within fixed trading sessions, while blockchain networks run continuously without interruption. This fundamental mismatch has created persistent challenges for onchain applications, including pricing gaps, limited visibility outside market hours, and elevated risk during off-session periods. Most existing oracle solutions only provide price data during standard trading hours, which restricts the reliability of DeFi products that are designed to function around the clock.

What the 24/5 Data Feeds Deliver with Chainlink

Chainlink’s 24/5 U.S. Equity Data Feeds consolidate fragmented market data into a unified, continuous pricing stream. The feeds cover regular trading hours as well as pre-market, after-hours, and overnight sessions, delivering uninterrupted price information five days a week. As a result, onchain markets can more accurately reflect real-world market conditions across extended trading windows.

Beyond headline prices, the data feeds include a rich set of market indicators such as bid and ask prices, trading volume, mid-price calculations, market status flags, and data freshness indicators. This expanded dataset enables protocols to design more robust risk frameworks and implement liquidation mechanisms that are better aligned with actual market dynamics.

Unlocking New Onchain Financial Products by Chainlink

Access to continuous equity data significantly broadens the scope of onchain financial innovation. Developers can now build U.S. equity-based perpetual contracts, prediction markets, synthetic stock instruments, lending protocols, and structured products with far greater confidence in their pricing inputs. The ability to support trading activity outside traditional market hours is particularly important for attracting global users across multiple time zones.

Growing Institutional Adoption

The new data feeds are already being adopted by leading platforms across the digital asset ecosystem. Major derivatives venues and RWA-focused protocols are leveraging Chainlink’s verifiable and high-frequency data to launch products that operate on a 24/5 basis while meeting institutional-grade reliability standards.

A Step Toward Always-On Capital Markets

Chainlink’s latest announcement represents a meaningful advancement in aligning onchain finance with traditional capital markets. By delivering continuous, high-quality equity data, the infrastructure lays the groundwork for more mature, secure, and accessible onchain equity markets. This development marks a key step toward truly global, always-on capital markets powered by blockchain technology.

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Tokenization: The Intersection of Crypto and Traditional Finance

Tokenization has recently become one of the most talked-about topics in both crypto and finance. Converting real-world assets into blockchain-based tokens accelerates investment processes while enhancing liquidity. Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, stated on the Thinking Crypto podcast that only a small portion of global assets have been tokenized and exist on blockchain networks.

Pandl noted that growing interest in tokenization will lead to more adoption of blockchain by traditional finance, with adoption expected to accelerate over the next 5 to 10 years. He also predicted that on-chain assets could grow up to 1,000 times in the next five years.

Chainlink: A Bridge Between Traditional Finance and Blockchain

Zach Pandl emphasized that Chainlink serves as a key bridge between tokenized assets on the blockchain and traditional finance:

“Chainlink is a true connection point between the crypto ecosystem and traditional finance. This is not a bet on a single blockchain—it’s an indicator of where the entire industry is heading.”

According to Pandl, Chainlink’s central role allows investors to manage both digital assets and traditional finance opportunities more securely and efficiently. This connection between blockchain-based tokenization and classical financial tools enables market participants to diversify portfolios and more easily leverage new investment opportunities.

Grayscale’s Expanding ETF Portfolio

Pandl also highlighted Grayscale’s ETF portfolio, which includes XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Chainlink. He mentioned that the Chainlink Trust has recently been converted into an ETF, allowing investors easier access to Chainlink.

This move increases investor access to tokenized assets and reinforces Chainlink’s strategic importance in the sector. According to Pandl, ETFs help make participation in the crypto ecosystem more democratic and accessible.

Analysis

Grayscale’s remarks about Chainlink signal that tokenization and blockchain adoption are expected to accelerate in the coming years. Chainlink’s central role in this space creates strategic opportunities for investors, and the ETF launch makes it easier for traditional investors to step into the crypto world. The next five to ten years are likely to be critical for the integration of tokenized assets and blockchain with traditional finance.

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Chainlink Leads: The Most Developed Project in the Solana Ecosystem

According to Santiment data, developers contributed the most to Chainlink (LINK) over the past 30 days. Chainlink’s oracle infrastructure plays a critical role for many networks especially Solana which explains why it ranks far ahead in development activity.

Following Chainlink, Solana (SOL) itself ranks second, supported by ongoing development efforts focused on its core infrastructure. Developers continue to work intensely to enhance Solana’s technical strengths, including high performance, low fees, and parallel processing capabilities.

Notable Projects in the Top 10

Santiment’s latest ranking is as follows:

1. Chainlink (LINK)
2. Solana (SOL)
3. Wormhole (W)
4. Drift Protocol (DRIFT)
5. JITO (JTO)
6. Swarms (SWARMS)
7. Pyth Network (PYTH)
8. Helium (HNT)
9. Meteora (MET)
10. Orca (ORCA)

This list shows that the Solana ecosystem is receiving strong development both in infrastructure projects (Wormhole, Pyth, JITO) and application-level DeFi protocols (Drift, Orca, Meteora). This is seen as a clear sign that the Solana network enjoys solid support from its developer community.

Price Performance Fails to Match Developer Activity

Even though development remains strong, the price performance of many Solana ecosystem projects has not kept pace. Over the past 30 days, only Swarms (SWARMS) managed to record relatively smaller losses, while notable projects such as JITO, Helium, Orca, and Wormhole experienced declines nearing double digits.

This divergence confirms once again that price movements in crypto are often driven by short-term sentiment, whereas development activity reflects long-term potential. Experts believe that this strong technical progress across the Solana ecosystem could eventually translate into improved price performance in the coming periods.

Solana’s Ecosystem Is Strengthening Technically

The high level of development activity across Solana-based projects shows strong developer support and a powerful technical momentum within the ecosystem. Despite short-term weakness in prices:

• the steady improvement of infrastructure projects,
• the growth of oracle and data solutions,
• the continuous renewal of DeFi protocols

are all strengthening Solana’s long-term potential.

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FTSE Russell Indices Go On-Chain

Under this partnership, some of the world’s most recognized financial benchmarks — including the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, and Russell 3000 — along with other FTSE index products, will be made accessible through blockchain networks.

The integration will be powered by Chainlink’s DataLink, a decentralized data publishing platform designed to securely transmit high-quality financial information to blockchain-based environments. With this move, FTSE Russell’s global indices will become available on-chain 24/7, enabling developers, institutions, and financial innovators to access trusted market data directly from decentralized systems.

This collaboration also marks FTSE Russell’s first initiative to deliver its data through blockchain infrastructure — a clear step toward bridging traditional finance and emerging Web3 technologies.

CEO Fiona Bassett Highlights Innovation Potential

Commenting on the partnership, Fiona Bassett, CEO of FTSE Russell, said:

“We are excited to bring our index data on-chain using Chainlink’s institutional-grade infrastructure. This represents a significant step in enabling innovation across tokenized assets, ETFs, and next-generation financial products. DataLink allows us to securely distribute the underlying data of our most trusted benchmarks to global on-chain markets.”

Her statement underscores how blockchain technology is increasingly viewed as a foundation for the next phase of financial innovation, particularly in tokenization and data transparency.

A Strengthening Phase for Chainlink’s Ecosystem

Chainlink’s DataLink infrastructure is already trusted by major financial data providers such as Deutsche Börse and S&P Global. The system operates across multiple blockchains and serves thousands of decentralized applications (dApps), ensuring that verified data can be securely accessed by smart contracts.

Despite the significance of this partnership, LINK’s price declined by around 10% in the past 24 hours, reflecting the broader correction across the crypto market rather than any project-specific weakness.

Previously, Chainlink had also established a partnership with the U.S. Department of Commerce to facilitate the on-chain delivery of key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Domestic Demand Strength.

This new collaboration with FTSE Russell further cements Chainlink’s position as the leading bridge between traditional financial systems and blockchain-based innovation.

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A New Standard for Security in Tokenized Assets

xStocks’ adoption of Chainlink’s infrastructure marks a significant milestone for tokenized finance. CCIP enables secure and reliable communication between different blockchains, allowing tokenized assets to move seamlessly across ecosystems. Meanwhile, Proof of Reserve adds an extra layer of transparency by verifying off-chain assets directly on the blockchain. This means investors can independently confirm that each tokenized stock is properly backed by its real-world equivalent, creating a more trustworthy and auditable market environment.

Expanding Across Multiple Blockchains

Rather than limiting itself to a single network, xStocks is expanding Chainlink’s CCIP and PoR integration across Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, and other leading blockchains. This multi-chain expansion not only broadens accessibility but also strengthens the platform’s reliability within the rapidly evolving tokenized asset ecosystem.

By leveraging Chainlink’s data and interoperability standards, xStocks enhances reserve transparency and ensures highly secure cross-chain transfers of tokenized equities. This makes it easier for investors to track the real value and backing of their digital assets, ultimately fostering greater confidence in tokenized markets.

The Future of Tokenized Finance: Secure and Interconnected

The integration highlights the growing importance of security and verifiability in the era of on-chain finance. As the global shift toward blockchain-based asset management accelerates, solutions like Chainlink’s CCIP and Proof of Reserve are becoming essential tools for building trust and scalability.

With this strategic expansion, xStocks is not only improving the technical foundation of its ecosystem but also positioning itself as a pioneer in transparent, cross-chain financial innovation — setting a new benchmark for the tokenized asset industry.

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Crypto Leaders Discuss Regulation Reform with the Senate

The U.S. crypto industry is set for one of its most crucial meetings this year. Leaders such as Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO), Stuart Alderoty (Ripple CLO), and Hayden Adams (Uniswap CEO) will join Senate Democrats to debate the future of digital asset regulation.

Topics include the separation of custody and brokerage in spot and derivatives trading, exchange licensing frameworks, and KYC/AML compliance. These discussions could reshape how DeFi and centralized platforms operate across the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, investors are watching closely, as regulatory uncertainty has historically triggered volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.

DeFi Draft Sparks Tension Across the Crypto Industry

A leaked DeFi regulatory draft attributed to Senate Democrats has caused shockwaves across the crypto community. Critics argue the draft could stifle innovation and contradict the core principles of decentralization.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong condemned the proposal, calling it “a bad idea that would undermine innovation.”

“This would set the U.S. back and prevent it from becoming the global crypto capital. But lawmaking is a process — and we’ll keep fighting for your economic freedom.” — Brian Armstrong, Coinbase

At the same time, Miles Jennings, General Counsel at a16z crypto, emphasized the urgent need for a “clear and consistent regulatory framework” to foster innovation while ensuring investor protection.

Who’s at the Table: Key Participants in Washington

The meeting gathers the most influential figures in the trillion-dollar crypto market:

• Brian Armstrong – CEO, Coinbase

• Sergey Nazarov – CEO, Chainlink

• Mike Novogratz – CEO, Galaxy Digital

• David Ripley – CEO, Kraken

• Hayden Adams – CEO, Uniswap

• Kathleen Smith – Head, Solana Policy Institute

• Dante Disparte – CSO, Circle

• Stuart Alderoty – CLO, Ripple

• Rebecca Rettig – CLO, Jito

• Miles Jennings – General Counsel, a16z crypto

The agenda includes stablecoin regulation, DeFi supervision architecture, and exchange licensing schemes. The outcomes could set the tone for future policymaking in the United States.

Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

Analysts believe that the results of this meeting could reshape the U.S. crypto competitiveness on a global scale. Prolonged uncertainty has already led to capital flight and developer migration from the U.S.

A balanced framework could attract institutional investors and strengthen user confidence. However, overly restrictive measures may slow down innovation and cause short-term market turbulence.

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