Institutional Demand and Gold’s Role

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes Bitcoin could set a new all-time high before the year ends, reaching $150,000. He points out that the surge in gold as a safe-haven asset is fueling institutional appetite for Bitcoin, adding further momentum to the market.

According to Edwards, surpassing the psychological threshold of $120,000 may trigger a rapid rally toward $150,000, potentially unfolding within days.

In the past week, Bitcoin has gained more than 6%, reclaiming the $118,500 level for the first time since mid-August.

The $200K Outlook

While Edwards’ forecast is bullish, some analysts are even more optimistic. Several market experts suggest that this cycle could push Bitcoin above $200,000.

André Dragosch, Head of Research in Europe at Bitwise Asset Management, highlights the potential impact of including cryptocurrencies in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans. He estimates that this could unlock as much as $122 billion in new capital. Even a modest 1% allocation by retirement managers could be enough to propel Bitcoin beyond $200,000 by year’s end.

Market Cycles and Investor Psychology

Edwards also emphasizes the relevance of the four-year cycle theory, which has long been a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s market behavior. He describes it as increasingly “self-fulfilling,” with investors positioning themselves based on cyclical expectations.

He notes that the probability of three strong months to close the year is “just over 50%.” However, he cautions that the real driving force remains institutional buying, and any slowdown in that demand could significantly alter his outlook.

Historical Trends Back the Bullish Case

Bitcoin’s track record during the final quarter of the year strengthens the bullish narrative. Historical data shows average monthly returns of around 20% in October, a remarkable 46% in November, and a modest 4% in December.

Technical indicators also reinforce the positive sentiment. Analysts are pointing to an emerging golden cross pattern, which may act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to target $150,000 in the fourth quarter.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, long-term holders—known in crypto circles as “OGs”—have been systematically selling their BTC holdings to institutions. “They’re dumping on Wall Street,” Edwards said, explaining the persistent selling pressure.

New Cohorts Absorb the Sell-Off

Edwards highlighted that the six-month BTC holder group has absorbed nearly all of the supply sold by long-term holders over the last 18 months. This new cohort includes recent corporate entrants like Cardone Capital, ProCap (which is going public), Panther Metals, and Green Minerals.

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He believes these firms will spark a “massive Bitcoin treasury flywheel,” eventually overtaking the ETF narrative as more companies jump in to accumulate BTC.

Short-Term Caution Ahead of Economic Triggers

Meanwhile, BTSE’s Jeff Mei noted that traders are locking in profits ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, fearing unresolved trade tensions. He added that more public companies are starting to accumulate Bitcoin, though their impact may take time to materialize.

Han Xu from HashKey Capital pointed out that macroeconomic risks—such as tariff negotiations and budget legislation in the U.S.—are making investors cautious. Any unexpected developments “could trigger a sell-off,” he warned.

Despite these concerns, Bitcoin remains in a tight trading range between $102,000 and $110,000. On Monday, BTC briefly touched $108,750—its highest in two weeks—but failed to break resistance.

Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $3.2 billion in inflows in the past two weeks, with zero outflow days, and more Bitcoin treasury firms are appearing each week.

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BTC achieved its highest daily close in history on December 11, with six-figure price action making a strong comeback.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

BTC/USD recently closed its daily candle at around $101,200. On Bitstamp, this matched the December 8th close, marking the highest recorded closing so far.

Bulls have managed to move away from the local lows of $94,000 seen earlier in the week. “The crucial level in Bitcoin is still defined,” said trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe in his latest analysis on X.

“If the markets stay above that area, it’s likely that we’ll see new ATH’s in the coming days.”

Will Bitcoin Set a New ATH?

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Market observers commenting noted that market stability has continued alongside Bitcoin’s recent journey to $100,000 and beyond.

“Bitcoin quietly achieved its highest daily close ever,” wrote Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, in a December 12th X post.

“Meanwhile funding rates are below normal, leverage still wiped and ETFs are seeing day after day of relentless inflows.”

Edwards referred to the clearing of leveraged positions resulting from the sudden market volatility seen this week and last.

Short positions felt the pressure during the rebound, and according to data from CoinGlass, 24-hour crypto liquidations reached a total of $270 million at the time of writing.

Liquidations Chart

Speculation on Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin Futures Basis Comparison. Source: Zaheer Ebtikar/X

Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of the crypto fund Split Capital, shared additional data supporting the lack of excessive market risk. He noted that while Bitcoin approaches all-time highs, the futures basis remains unusually low.

Zaheer Ebtikar wrote, “I can’t explain to you how absolutely insane this image is.”

He shared this with his X followers, alongside an explanatory chart. The futures basis refers to the difference between spot and futures market prices, measured as a percentage of the spot price.

In Bitcoin bull markets, when all-time highs are reached, this difference can reach 30% or more, reflecting increased speculation about future BTC price growth.

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The post Bitcoin 15% Futures Basis Point Described as ‘Insane’! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

In a recent discussion, Edwards delved into the factors holding Bitcoin back from breaching the six-figure barrier. He began his analysis by highlighting the significant role of US Bitcoin ETFs. Since their mid-January launch, these ETFs have witnessed a remarkable 200% buy rate relative to newly minted Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin’s price surging 50% to $71,000 since the ETF debut, many remain perplexed as to why prices haven’t climbed higher.

Edwards pointed to a challenging force the market is currently grappling with: long-term wallet selling. The share of ‘hodlers’ – individuals holding Bitcoin for over two years – in total supply has declined from an all-time high of 57% in December 2023 to 54% today. While a 3% drop may not seem substantial, it represents approximately 630,000 BTC, roughly 300% of the total amount bought by all US Bitcoin ETFs this year.

As observed in previous cycles, Edwards noted that selling into price rallies is a typical behavior. A significant portion of this selling is from Grayscale’s ETF transitioning to new ETFs, further amplifying the decline.

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Edwards then shifted his focus to the yet-unseen effects of the BTC halving. With the daily BTC issuance cut by 50% in April, he anticipates the gap between ETF consumption and mined Bitcoin to widen next year. He further pointed out that institutions’ review, signing, and allocation processes span across quarters, suggesting that large ETF inflows are likely still on the horizon.

Another crucial factor to consider, according to Edwards, is the time of year. June is typically a period of market lull, with many large asset managers adopting a risk-off stance.

Perhaps the most critical factor, as Edwards sees it, is the flat and slightly negative trend in USD Liquidity since Bitcoin’s March peak. When the liquidity tap tightens, risk assets face an uphill battle.

For a strong price surge, Edwards believes we need to see at least one of the following:

Higher average daily ETF buying

Lower long-term wallet selling

Growth in USD liquidity

Edwards concluded his analysis on an optimistic note, expecting these conditions to materialize in the coming months, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to breach the elusive $100,000 barrier.

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