His remarks suggest that progress in the Senate could move at a slower pace, prolonging the uncertainty surrounding comprehensive crypto regulation in the U.S.

Clarity Act Unlikely to Pass Committee Before April

According to comments from Senate leadership, the Clarity Act is not expected to move through the Senate Banking Committee in the immediate term. Thune stated that it would be difficult for the proposal to clear the committee before April.

The Clarity Act is widely viewed as an important effort to define how digital assets should be regulated within the U.S. financial system. The legislation aims to clarify the legal status of cryptocurrencies, outline the responsibilities of market participants, and establish a clearer division of regulatory authority among government agencies.

While the bill has made progress in the House of Representatives, discussions in the Senate remain ongoing, highlighting the complexity of building consensus around digital asset regulation.

Senate Approves Housing Bill With CBDC Restriction

In a separate development, the Senate recently approved a comprehensive housing bill that includes a provision restricting the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

The legislation has now been sent to the House of Representatives for further consideration. The inclusion of the CBDC-related clause reflects the continuing political debate in the United States over whether the Federal Reserve should introduce a government-backed digital currency.

SAVE America Act Takes Legislative Priority

At the same time, another proposal has taken priority in the congressional agenda: the SAVE America Act. The Senate is expected to vote on the measure in the coming week.

The bill focuses on election procedures and would require individuals to provide official documentation proving citizenship when registering to vote. Former President Donald Trump has publicly supported the legislation and previously stated that he would not sign other bills until the measure is passed.

This prioritization of other legislative matters may also contribute to delays in advancing crypto-related regulation.

Ongoing Debate Over Stablecoins

Discussions surrounding digital asset regulation also extend to the stablecoin sector. One of the most debated issues involves whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield-like returns to users.

Traditional banks argue that such practices could draw deposits away from the banking system while avoiding the regulatory requirements that banks must follow. On the other hand, some policymakers believe properly regulated stablecoins could actually strengthen the U.S. financial system.

Supporters of the latter view argue that compliant stablecoin frameworks may attract international capital into the American banking ecosystem rather than weakening it.

Regulatory Clarity Could Be a Major Catalyst

Despite uncertainty surrounding the legislative timeline, policy analysts generally agree that a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets could become a significant catalyst for the industry.

Clear rules may encourage greater participation from institutional investors and financial institutions that have so far remained cautious due to regulatory ambiguity. Increased institutional involvement could, in turn, bring more liquidity and long-term stability to the crypto market.

For now, the direction and timing of U.S. crypto regulation remain closely watched by both the digital asset industry and traditional financial institutions worldwide.

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However, the key question for investors remains the same: When could the downturn finally end?

According to market experts, the next recovery in crypto is unlikely to be triggered by a single dramatic event. Instead, it may emerge gradually as several important developments begin to restore confidence across the industry.

1. Regulatory Clarity Through the CLARITY Act

One of the most important developments being watched in the United States is the CLARITY Act, a major legislative proposal aimed at defining how digital assets should be regulated. While other pro-crypto policies have appeared in recent years, this bill is expected to play a decisive role in shaping the regulatory framework.

If the legislation moves forward, it could provide clearer oversight rules for digital assets and encourage banks, asset managers, and payment companies to increase their involvement in the crypto sector. Greater institutional participation could significantly boost market confidence.

2. Improvement in the Macro and Tech Market Environment

Cryptocurrencies remain highly correlated with technology stocks and broader risk assets. When tech markets weaken, crypto often experiences amplified volatility.

For instance, the NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index is still down more than 2% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing pressure in the sector. Because of this correlation, many analysts believe that a sustained crypto rally may only begin once the broader macro environment stabilizes and risk appetite returns.

3. Institutional ETF Inflows Returning

Institutional demand has become one of the most influential forces in the crypto market. During 2024 and 2025, strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a substantial portion of market supply.

Recently, however, ETF outflows coincided with the broader market decline. If institutional investors begin allocating capital to these products again, it could signal that Bitcoin prices are once again considered attractive long-term entry points.

4. A New Narrative: Agentic Finance

Another potential catalyst lies in the emergence of new technological narratives. One concept gaining attention is “agentic finance,” which refers to AI-driven software agents capable of autonomously executing financial transactions and managing assets on blockchain networks.

Although the idea is still in its early stages, increasing interest from technology and payment companies could expand blockchain’s real-world use cases.

5. Progress on Quantum-Resistant Security

Concerns about the future impact of quantum computing on blockchain security occasionally resurface in the crypto community. While the threat remains largely theoretical, developers are exploring quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions.

Even incremental progress in this area could help reassure investors worried about long-term infrastructure risks.

6. A More Mature Market Structure

Unlike previous crypto bear markets, the current downturn has not been defined by widespread industry collapses. In earlier cycles—particularly in 2022—major corporate failures triggered cascading crises.

Today, the market appears structurally stronger, with improved infrastructure, greater institutional participation, and relatively lower volatility. These factors could make crypto markets more attractive for long-term investors.

A Gradual Turn Rather Than a Sudden Reversal

Experts emphasize that the next crypto bull cycle may not begin with a single headline event. Instead, recovery could unfold gradually as multiple positive developments accumulate over time.

If these catalysts begin aligning, the end of the current bear market may arrive quietly—driven by growing confidence rather than sudden speculation.

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In particular, the stalled progress of major legislation such as the CLARITY Act has contributed to hesitation among institutional investors. Despite these short-term challenges, Edelman remains strongly optimistic about Bitcoin’s future and believes the asset could experience a substantial rally over the coming years.

Regulatory Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Bitcoin

Volatility in the crypto market has made many investors more cautious in recent months. While macroeconomic factors play an important role, Edelman believes regulatory ambiguity is also a major contributor to the market’s current hesitation.

The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, has faced delays during the legislative process. According to Edelman, this lack of regulatory clarity is slowing the pace of institutional adoption.

He argues that once a well-defined regulatory structure is implemented, large financial institutions may feel more comfortable allocating capital to the crypto sector. Such a shift could significantly strengthen demand for Bitcoin.

Long-Term Forecast: $500,000 by 2030

Although short-term uncertainty remains, Edelman maintains a highly bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. He believes that continued growth in the digital asset ecosystem, combined with increasing institutional participation and clearer regulation, could drive a dramatic expansion in Bitcoin’s value.

Based on these factors, Edelman suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach $500,000 by the end of the decade, highlighting the scale of the opportunity he sees in the asset class.

This projection reflects expectations that Bitcoin will continue strengthening its role within the global financial system while attracting a broader base of investors.

Dismissing the “Quantum Computers Will Destroy Bitcoin” Narrative

Edelman also addressed a topic that has recently gained attention in technology and crypto circles: the claim that quantum computers could eventually break Bitcoin’s cryptographic security.

He dismissed these concerns in strong terms, arguing that such claims often overlook how technological development works in practice. In his view, advancements in computing power are typically matched by improvements in cybersecurity and cryptographic defenses.

To illustrate his point, Edelman used a simple analogy:

“If someone shows up with a 10-meter ladder to climb the blockchain wall, developers will simply build a 12-meter wall.”

This comparison reflects his belief that security systems within blockchain networks will continue evolving alongside emerging technologies.

Strategic Targets Would Likely Come First

Edelman further emphasized that even if quantum computing were capable of breaking cryptographic systems in the future, Bitcoin would probably not be the primary target.

A sophisticated attacker with such capabilities would more likely focus on far more critical infrastructure, including:

• National power grids

• Sensitive government systems

• Strategic infrastructure networks

• Nuclear command systems

Given the importance of these targets, Edelman argues that concerns about Bitcoin being the first victim of quantum attacks are largely exaggerated.

A Strong Long-Term Outlook for Digital Assets

Despite periodic market corrections and regulatory delays, Edelman believes the broader trajectory of the crypto industry remains intact. Digital assets are gradually becoming a more integrated part of the global financial ecosystem.

Clearer regulations, increasing institutional participation, and continuous technological improvements are all factors that could support long-term growth.

For Edelman, the current period of uncertainty does not change the broader narrative. Instead, he sees it as a transitional phase before wider adoption takes hold — a process that could ultimately drive significant price appreciation for Bitcoin in the years ahead.

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A historically prolonged government shutdown, partisan disagreements over ethics issues, and ongoing debates surrounding stablecoin yield provisions have all contributed to the slowdown. With the November midterm elections now just eight months away, the legislative calendar is becoming increasingly compressed.

Partial Progress in Committees, Broader Uncertainty Remains

The bill effectively has two core components. A version focused on commodity market oversight has already cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee, marking a tangible step forward. However, the securities law portion—falling under the jurisdiction of the Senate Banking Committee—has yet to receive formal consideration. A scheduled markup session in January was cancelled, reinforcing the perception that progress has stalled.

Some industry observers argue that the legislation is effectively “on hold.” Earlier projections suggesting passage as soon as April now appear overly optimistic given the current political climate. Without coordinated movement between committees, advancing a unified framework will be difficult.

Crypto Market Conditions and Political Realities

Shifting market dynamics may also be influencing the pace of legislative urgency. During periods of strong crypto market performance, traditional financial institutions were more actively developing digital asset strategies, and regulatory agencies appeared more motivated to clarify oversight boundaries. As market conditions have cooled, that sense of urgency has diminished.

Moreover, digital asset regulation remains a technically complex topic that many lawmakers perceive as niche relative to broader voter concerns. In an election year, Congress typically prioritizes highly visible policy issues, making it harder for specialized financial legislation to gain traction.

The Stablecoin Yield Debate

One of the most contentious elements of the bill involves whether stablecoin holders should be permitted to earn yield through third-party platforms. This issue has reportedly prompted multiple meetings at the White House involving administration officials as well as representatives from both the crypto and banking sectors. Some banking stakeholders argue that allowing such yield mechanisms could disrupt existing financial industry dynamics.

At the same time, certain industry participants remain cautiously optimistic that compromises can be reached. However, beyond earlier aspirational timelines, few concrete details have emerged publicly.

How Will Election Calendar Pressure Affect the Crypto Law?

The 2026 election cycle is already underway in several states, with primaries scheduled in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas. The Senate is also expected to recess for approximately one month in August for state work periods, returning only two months before the general election.

Taken together, these factors significantly narrow the legislative window. Unless meaningful bipartisan consensus is achieved soon, the likelihood increases that comprehensive crypto market structure reform may be postponed until after the midterms.

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What Is the CLARITY Act Designed to Do?

Commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, the proposed bill seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The legislation has already advanced in the House of Representatives, while discussions and negotiations continue in the Senate.

Two primary sticking points remain unresolved. The first concerns whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield or rewards to holders. Crypto-native firms argue that yield-bearing stablecoins are essential for competitiveness and innovation. Traditional banks, however, contend that allowing interest-like returns on stablecoin balances could draw deposits away from the banking system and introduce financial stability risks.

The second area of contention involves conflict-of-interest provisions. Some lawmakers are pushing for restrictions that would limit the ability of senior government officials — including the President — and their families to participate in certain crypto-related financial activities. Reports suggest that discussions between industry representatives, banking groups, and policymakers are ongoing, with the possibility of compromise still on the table.

Eight Potential Tailwinds if Passed

JPMorgan analysts outline eight potential benefits should the bill become law.

First, it would clearly distinguish between “digital commodities” regulated by the CFTC and “digital securities” overseen by the SEC, reducing compliance uncertainty. A grandfather provision could allow certain ETF-linked assets such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin, and Chainlink to fall under the more flexible CFTC framework.

Second, early-stage projects would be granted a transition period allowing up to $75 million in annual fundraising without full SEC registration while progressing toward decentralization. Third, tokens initially sold as securities could later transition to commodity status once sufficiently decentralized.

Fourth and fifth, clearer rules for intermediaries and custody could enable institutions like BNY Mellon and State Street to directly safeguard digital assets, while also supporting tokenization of traditional securities. Sixth, miners, validators, and software developers would receive exemptions from broker-style reporting during development under certain conditions.

Seventh, small crypto payments could qualify for tax exemptions, and staking taxation would gain clarity. Eighth, by defining stablecoins more as digital cash than investment products, the bill could shift institutional interest toward tokenized deposits.

If enacted by mid-year as anticipated, the CLARITY Act could significantly reshape the regulatory landscape and improve market structure clarity heading into the second half of the year.

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According to the JPMorgan analyst team, if the long-awaited regulatory clarity is achieved, institutional capital inflows could accelerate and market dynamics could strengthen significantly.

Bitcoin Dips Below Production Cost

This assessment comes at a time when market sentiment remains fragile. Bitcoin recently fell below its estimated production cost of around $77,000. Historically, this level has been considered a “soft floor” during downturns. However, the latest pullback has further reinforced the cautious atmosphere following the sharp correction in the last quarter of the previous year.

This picture suggests that a new bullish wave will only be possible with a strong catalyst.

Shift in Power from Retail to Institutional

According to JPMorgan’s base case, the next bull cycle will differ from previous retail-led rallies. Today, approximately 65% of large-scale Bitcoin transactions are executed by institutional investors.

Additionally, the significant decline in 30-day realized volatility on an annualized basis points to more balanced capital flows and reduced speculative fluctuations. In 2025, a record $130 billion flowed into digital asset products. The bank forecasts that this figure could increase even further in 2026 if regulatory clarity is achieved.

This capital is not expected to be limited to spot purchases alone; it is anticipated to extend into venture capital investments, mergers and acquisitions, as well as initial public offerings of crypto exchanges, payment companies, and blockchain infrastructure firms.

Determining Factor: Market Structure Legislation

At the center of the forecasts lies federal-level market structure reform. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act introduced in the House of Representatives aims to assign primary oversight of digital commodity spot markets to the CFTC while preserving the SEC’s authority over investment contracts.

On the Senate side, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act proposes a more hybrid model. Under this framework, certain tokens would fall under CFTC oversight, while periodic reporting obligations to the SEC could continue in cases involving capital raising.

Previously introduced, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act aimed to reduce jurisdictional confusion by defining categories such as “permitted payment stablecoins.”

In summary, according to JPMorgan, there is potential for a strong crypto rally in the second half of 2026; however, the realization of this scenario appears to depend on regulatory clarity emerging from Washington.

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As the Senate seeks to advance a bill defining regulatory oversight of digital assets, provisions related to stablecoins have emerged as a primary sticking point between traditional financial institutions and crypto firms.

Transaction-Based Rewards Instead of Balance Yield

A key proposal discussed during the meeting would allow third-party platforms — such as crypto exchanges — to offer stablecoin rewards tied exclusively to transaction activity rather than to idle account balances. Under this framework, users could earn incentives based on usage, but not on simply holding stablecoins.

This distinction is significant. Banking groups have strongly objected to models that resemble interest payments on deposited funds, arguing that such structures could blur the line between stablecoins and bank deposits. According to participants in the discussions, the concept of earning yield on passive balances is now largely off the table, narrowing negotiations to whether activity-based rewards can be permitted.

While no final agreement was reached, attendees described the tone as constructive, with detailed examination of legislative language. Discussions are expected to continue in the coming days.

Banking Sector Concerns: Competition Over Deposits

Banking organizations including the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers of America have been involved in the talks. Although these groups have not publicly commented on the most recent meeting, their concerns center on the competitive impact of stablecoin rewards.

The U.S. Treasury estimated in April that widespread stablecoin adoption could potentially lead to as much as $6.6 trillion in deposit outflows from the banking system. However, at least one banking representative reportedly suggested that competitive pressures — rather than immediate deposit flight — are the more pressing concern.

Legislative Path Remains Uncertain

This marks the third meeting between the parties following earlier sessions in early February. While the House previously passed a related bill known as the CLARITY Act, the Senate has yet to secure sufficient bipartisan support to move its version forward.

With negotiations ongoing, the final treatment of stablecoin rewards may play a decisive role in shaping the broader regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

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New All-Time High Expectations for Bitcoin

Matt Hougan suggested that Bitcoin could break away from its traditional four-year cycle pattern. Instead of the typical post-halving surge followed by a sharp correction, he believes the market may transition into a more stable, institutionally supported uptrend. Hougan expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs. He also argued that as the market matures, Bitcoin’s volatility has declined compared to previous cycles and could even be lower than that of major technology stocks such as Nvidia. With growing institutional demand, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are projected to continue absorbing a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply.

In his remarks, Hougan stated:

“Thanks to institutional demand, ETFs could absorb more than the total new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.”

Regulatory Clarity Could Be a Catalyst for Ethereum and Solana

Hougan emphasized that new legislation providing regulatory clarity in the United States could serve as a major catalyst for the crypto market. If proposals such as the CLARITY Act are passed, Ethereum and Solana could be among the biggest beneficiaries. According to Hougan, these two networks are best positioned to benefit from the growth of the stablecoin ecosystem and the ongoing tokenization trend. Reduced regulatory uncertainty could pave the way for both Ethereum and Solana to achieve new price records.

The Bitwise CIO also noted that the number of crypto-focused ETFs in the U.S. could expand rapidly. He estimates that more than 100 crypto-related ETFs may be launched in the coming period. Such expansion could accelerate institutional capital inflows into the market, significantly boosting demand for both Bitcoin and major altcoins.

Evaluation

Matt Hougan’s outlook signals strong bullish expectations for 2026. Increasing institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, and rising ETF demand could open the door to new highs for major projects like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. In particular, if legislation such as the CLARITY Act is enacted, Ethereum and Solana may have the potential to reach record-breaking levels. In the coming period, institutional capital flows and regulatory developments will likely be the key drivers shaping the direction of the crypto market.

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Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty, who attended the session, emphasized that bipartisan backing for sensible crypto market structure legislation remains intact. However, the debate over whether stablecoin holders should be allowed to earn yield has emerged as the central sticking point in negotiations.

Stablecoin Yield at the Center of Disagreement

The House of Representatives previously approved a similar market structure proposal, the CLARITY Act, in July. Yet the legislative process stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to insufficient bipartisan support. Momentum weakened further after Coinbase withdrew its backing for the bill, citing provisions that would prohibit yield payments tied to stablecoins.

Banking groups argue that allowing stablecoin holders to receive yield—especially through third-party platforms such as crypto exchanges—could draw funds away from traditional bank deposits. In their view, such mechanisms may erode deposit bases and pose risks to financial system stability. Reports indicate that documents circulated by banking representatives during the meeting outlined principles supporting a broad prohibition on stablecoin interest or yield structures.

Discussions Ongoing, No Final Deal

The latest White House session was reportedly more focused and technical compared to the earlier meeting held in recent weeks. Participants from the crypto sector described the exchange as serious and solution-oriented, though fundamental differences remain unresolved.

Major banking organizations—including the American Bankers Association, the Bank Policy Institute, and the Independent Community Bankers of America—issued a joint statement stressing that continued dialogue is necessary to move the legislation forward. They highlighted the importance of fostering financial innovation without compromising the safety and soundness of the banking system or jeopardizing deposits that support local lending and economic activity.

Meanwhile, some crypto industry voices argue that reopening debates over stablecoin yield—already addressed in the GENIUS Act, which bars issuers from directly paying interest—risks delaying broader market structure reforms. According to this view, the overarching regulatory framework should advance independently of the yield dispute.

For now, negotiations remain active but inconclusive, with the fate of the proposed legislation hinging on whether common ground can be found in the coming weeks.

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Key Takeaways

• Shutdown odds dropped sharply on Polymarket

• Trump–Schumer talks improved confidence

• Regulatory timelines, including the CLARITY Act, gained breathing room

Concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown are dissipating faster than expected. Pricing on prediction platform Polymarket suggests that a scenario widely discussed just days ago is now losing traction. Shutdown odds fell by roughly 33 points in a short span, moving away from a prior peak near 80%. What matters here is not the number itself, but the shift in tone driven by increasingly concrete talks between the White House and Senate Democrats.

A New Formula for Funding

According to reporting by The New York Times, negotiators are weighing a plan to separate Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from a broader six-bill spending package. The logic is straightforward: advance funding for health programs and other federal agencies without allowing immigration disputes to stall the process. Lawmakers aim to bring the package to a vote before Friday at midnight, effectively neutralizing shutdown risk.

Earlier in the week, the picture looked very different. Risk was building. Senate Democrats openly signaled they would withhold support from the House-passed funding bill. Schumer’s firm stance that Immigration and Customs Enforcement must be “reined in and overhauled” amplified uncertainty. After late Wednesday discussions, however, the tone appears to have shifted.

Why It Matters

A shutdown would not only represent a political failure. Ongoing regulatory processes also hang in the balance. Among the most critical is the CLARITY Act, which seeks to establish a clearer framework for digital assets. During the last shutdown, the SEC halted reviews of new digital asset funds entirely — a precedent that remains fresh in market memory.

Timing adds another layer of sensitivity. The SEC has just introduced new rules covering tokenized assets, while the CFTC continues laying groundwork for a more coherent regulatory structure. A shutdown at this stage could disrupt that momentum. For now, strengthening signs of compromise are offering both Washington and the markets a moment to breathe.

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