How Much Bitcoin Is Actually Exposed?

Estimates circulating in the market often claim that 20% to 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply could eventually be compromised by quantum-enabled attacks. CoinShares challenges this view, stating that such figures conflate hypothetical exposure with coins that could feasibly be targeted and stolen at scale.

The analysis focuses on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, an older format in which public keys are permanently visible on-chain. Because these keys are openly accessible, they are theoretically more vulnerable if quantum computers become capable of reversing cryptographic signatures. CoinShares estimates that roughly 1.6 million BTC, or about 8% of total supply, resides in these address types.

Distribution Matters More Than Headlines

The most critical insight from the report lies not in the total number of potentially exposed coins, but in how they are distributed. CoinShares estimates that only around 10,200 BTC is concentrated in amounts large enough to cause meaningful market disruption if compromised.

The remaining coins are spread across more than 32,000 individual UTXOs, each holding an average of approximately 50 BTC. This fragmented structure significantly reduces the appeal of a quantum attack. Instead of breaching a single large wallet, an attacker would need to crack thousands of separate outputs individually, making the process slower, more expensive, and far more detectable.

Technological Reality and Timeline

From a technical standpoint, CoinShares argues that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography would require fault-tolerant quantum systems around 100,000 times more powerful than today’s most advanced machines. Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet has noted that while current systems operate at the scale of hundreds of qubits, such attacks would require millions of qubits. This places the realistic threat horizon at a decade or more away.

A Manageable Engineering Challenge

Rather than framing quantum computing as an emergency, CoinShares characterizes it as a foreseeable engineering problem. The firm supports a gradual migration toward post-quantum signature schemes, allowing the Bitcoin ecosystem to adapt over time.

While debate continues between developers and institutional investors regarding preparedness, current evidence suggests that quantum computing does not pose an immediate or systemic risk to Bitcoin. The issue appears less like an impending crisis and more like a long-term transition that can be addressed methodically.

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CoinShares Analysis

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, highlighted in a market note dated December 5 that Tether’s assets exceed its liabilities. According to the latest attestation, the stablecoin maintains around $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities, creating an excess of approximately $6.55 billion. Butterfill emphasized that these figures indicate no systemic vulnerability for USDT at present.

• Reserves: $181 billion

• Liabilities: $174.45 billion

• Excess reserve: $6.55 billion

The report also noted Tether’s strong profitability, exceeding $10 billion since the beginning of the year, and a diversified reserve structure that further reduces liquidity and solvency risks.

Market Reaction and Hayes’ Warning

Hayes’ claims quickly spread across crypto news outlets and social media, raising questions about the impact of potential declines in Tether’s Bitcoin and gold holdings. CoinShares acknowledged these risks but reassured that Tether’s large reserve buffer and year-to-date profits significantly mitigate any immediate threat to USDT’s solvency.

Tether’s Current Position and CEO Statement

Tether continues to lead the stablecoin market with a circulating supply of $185.5 billion and roughly 59% market share. CEO Paolo Ardoino referred to the latest attestation, highlighting approximately $7 billion in excess equity and nearly $30 billion in total Tether Group equity. He also mentioned that U.S. Treasury holdings generate about $500 million in monthly base profits, further strengthening USDT’s payment capability. Ardoino stated, “Forever trusting who we are. No, nothing else matters,” reinforcing confidence in Tether’s financial robustness.

Tether’s diversified reserves, strong earnings, and excess equity collectively enhance the stablecoin’s resilience against market volatility. While CoinShares advises investors to remain cautious, the data confirm that USDT’s solvency is currently secure.

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DTCC Listings and Spot XRP ETFs

The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) has added the following spot XRP ETFs to its list:

• Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ)
• 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR)
• Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP)
• Canary XRP ETF (XRPC)
• CoinShares XRP ETF (XRPL)

This step is considered a significant preparatory move toward making spot XRP ETFs available to U.S. investors. Market participants see the listing as a potential signal of an accelerated ETF approval process.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg stated at Ripple Swell 2025 that after successfully launching Litecoin and Hedera ETFs, the company plans to launch the XRPC fund. McClurg noted that the ETF could go live within 20 days with no delays. WisdomTree’s XRP ETF is also expected to join the other funds on DTCC shortly.

Rising Demand and Market Dynamics

Demand for spot XRP ETFs is growing. Earlier this year, products like Teucrium’s 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP) and ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) were launched. XXRP raised roughly $306 million in net assets in less than a year, demonstrating strong investor appetite for leveraged XRP exposure.

Solana and XRP futures are among the fastest-growing crypto products on the CME Group. Leveraging the infrastructure and liquidity developments of Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives, these products support increased market participation and popular trading strategies. The SEC’s “General Listing Standards” adopted in September also provide regulations to speed up ETF approval processes.

Grayscale and Market Expectations

Grayscale aims to convert its existing XRP Trust into a spot XRP ETF. Since its launch in September, the Trust has amassed around $14 million in assets under management. These developments indicate rising investor appetite and growing innovation in digital asset markets. The surge in spot XRP ETF applications is viewed as a positive indicator of institutional investor interest.

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Leading Asset Managers File With the SEC

Geraci noted that heavyweight asset managers — including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity Investments, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Canary Capital — have all submitted updated S-1 filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot Solana ETFs.
These S-1 filings serve as comprehensive disclosures, outlining company financials, associated risks, and the details of the securities to be listed.

The First Solana Staking ETF Already Live

The new wave of filings arrives just two months after the launch of the first Solana staking ETF in the U.S. The REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF, which debuted on the Cboe BZX exchange, registered $33 million in trading volume and $12 million in inflows on its first day.
Pantera Capital has since argued that Solana could represent the “next big institutional opportunity,” pointing to its relatively under-allocated status compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“Get Ready for October”

Geraci emphasized that October could be a pivotal month for crypto markets. Recent developments, such as the first Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETF filing and the SEC’s approval of new listing standards for digital asset ETFs, are adding momentum to the narrative.
Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Hunter Horsley revealed that the Bitwise Solana Staking ETP in Europe attracted $60 million in inflows within just five trading days, adding that “Solana is clearly on investors’ minds.”

Another flurry of S-1 amendments filed today on spot sol ETFs…

Franklin, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, & Canary.

Includes staking (yes, bodes well for spot eth ETF staking).

Guessing these are approved w/in next two weeks. pic.twitter.com/g13NDFKSEU

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 26, 2025

Broader Altcoin Rally on the Horizon?

Analysts at Bitfinex have highlighted that a broad-based altcoin rally may not materialize until more crypto ETFs are approved, giving investors access further down the risk curve. Expanding ETF products could unlock significant demand for altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Positive Implications for Ethereum ETFs

The inclusion of staking in the latest filings is also viewed as a promising signal for Ethereum ETFs. Geraci suggested that approval of staking features in spot ETH ETFs would be a game-changer, boosting yields and reshaping investor demand.
Other industry experts echoed this sentiment, stressing that staking-enabled Ethereum investment products could dramatically strengthen the market and attract a new wave of institutional interest.

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Under the agreement, CoinShares shareholders will receive new shares issued by Odysseus Holdings. Once completed, Odysseus will become the parent company listed on Nasdaq U.S. For investors, the transaction delivers a 30.6% premium compared to the September 5, 2025, closing price. This premium highlights the scale of the move for existing shareholders. 

CoinShares SPAC merger details 

The transaction is structured as a court-approved scheme of arrangement under Jersey law. CoinShares will cover all costs tied to the SEC registration process and the Nasdaq application. This ensures that shareholders do not face additional expenses during the transition. 

According to the timeline, the merger is expected to commence on December 17, 2025. From that date, CoinShares’ presence will officially shift to the U.S. market. Investors will hold shares directly tradable on Nasdaq U.S., giving them access to deeper liquidity and broader institutional demand. 

Impact of Nasdaq U.S. listing on investors 

A Nasdaq U.S. listing will significantly boost the visibility of CoinShares. It will also provide stronger access to global institutional investors. In addition, the move is designed to enhance liquidity and align the company with larger digital asset peers trading in the U.S. 

At the same time, CoinShares will keep its European operations active. However, this transition strengthens its position on the international stage. Once regulatory and court approvals are secured, CoinShares will officially stand among the largest digital asset firms listed on Nasdaq U.S. 

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Amdax’s Euronext Amsterdam Move

Amdax plans to launch a Bitcoin treasury company to be listed on the Amsterdam-based Euronext exchange. For this purpose, the company is creating AMBTS B.V., a privately held firm with independent governance. The goal is highly ambitious: to hold 1% of the total bitcoin supply in circulation.

AMBTS plans to gradually raise capital from the markets to expand its bitcoin reserves and increase the bitcoin-per-share ratio for investors. At current prices, achieving this target would require more than $24 billion.

Amdax was the first crypto service provider to register with the Dutch Central Bank in 2020. On June 26, it also became one of the first Dutch companies to receive a MiCA license from the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption in Europe

According to Amdax CEO Lucas Wensing, bitcoin still holds a relatively small share in corporate balance sheets, but the time is now right. Currently, more than 10% of the total bitcoin supply is already held by companies, governments, and institutions.

In Europe, at least 15 companies have publicly disclosed that they hold bitcoin. These include Germany-based Bitcoin Group (3,605 BTC), the UK’s Smarter Web Company (2,395 BTC), France’s The Blockchain Group (1,653 BTC), and the UK’s Satsuma Technology (1,126 BTC).

Other companies holding smaller amounts of bitcoin include Sweden’s H100 Group, Samara Asset Group, CoinShares, Aker ASA, and K33.

Bitcoin Performance and Asia’s Growth

Over the past decade, bitcoin has outperformed all major asset classes, with a gain of 26,900%. In comparison, the S&P 500 rose 193%, gold gained 125%, and crude oil just 4.3%. This clearly shows why institutional interest in bitcoin continues to grow.

In Asia, corporate bitcoin investments are also rising. Japan-based Metaplanet recently purchased an additional 775 BTC, pushing its total holdings to over 18,888 BTC. Following these acquisitions, the company’s stock price has surged nearly 190% year-to-date.

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Trump’s decision caused outflows seen midweek to quickly reverse into inflows. According to the CoinShares report, investors initially made $1 billion in crypto outflows earlier in the week. However, the government’s green light for cryptocurrencies balanced these outflows with $1.57 billion inflows. As a result, the net inflow reached $578 million. 

The US recorded the highest crypto inflows last week. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that markets gained positive momentum after digital assets were allowed in 401(k) plans. On the other hand, crypto ETF volumes declined by 23% compared to last month due to the usual summer slowdown. 

Shifting Balance Between Bitcoin and Ethereum Investments 

Ethereum had long been the leader in the altcoin market. In recent weeks, Ethereum investment products saw record inflows of around $4.39 billion. The previous week, Ethereum received $133.9 million while Bitcoin investments experienced a $404 million outflow. However, this picture has changed in recent weeks. 

Bitcoin showed recovery signs after two consecutive weeks of outflows, rapidly closing the gap with Ethereum. Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, notes that most Ethereum investors originally held significant Bitcoin during the ICO period and converted their Bitcoin to Ethereum to support Ethereum’s price. 

According to Butterfill, Bitcoin’s recovery supports the positive market sentiment. The balance between these two major crypto assets indicates strengthening investor confidence. Additionally, Trump’s 401(k) move helped sustain this optimism. 

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A Unified License for 27 Countries

Headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey, CoinShares received its MiCA license through France’s financial authority, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). This regulatory green light enables the firm to expand its crypto investment services into new European territories, building upon its existing operations in countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg.

With MiCA now added to its regulatory stack, alongside existing MiFID and AIFM licenses, CoinShares becomes the only major European digital asset manager to hold all three key financial permissions—setting it apart in the rapidly evolving crypto space.

Opening the Doors to a $38.7 Trillion Market

CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti described the MiCA approval as a transformative step for both the company and the broader European digital asset ecosystem. “We now have a clear and harmonized regulatory framework across the EU. Being the first fully licensed digital asset manager based in continental Europe to meet these standards is a point of pride,” Mognetti stated.

The license could significantly enhance access to the $38.7 trillion European asset management market, facilitating broader exposure to regulated crypto investment products. This is particularly promising for institutional investors seeking compliant access to bitcoin, ethereum, and other altcoin holdings.

Leading Among Peers

While major global crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Crypto.com have also secured MiCA licenses, CoinShares stands out as the first digital asset management firm to obtain this approval. Its institutional focus positions the company as a pioneer in delivering compliant and secure crypto exposure across Europe.

Founded in 2013, CoinShares is publicly traded on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange and currently manages more than $9 billion in digital assets. Following the MiCA announcement, the company’s stock rose 1.7%, reaching $12.66. Year-to-date, shares have surged over 46%, underscoring growing investor confidence in its long-term vision.

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Crypto ETFs Dominate with $2.7 Billion in Weekly Inflows

The bulk of these inflows went directly into Bitcoin-focused ETPs, which led the way with $2.7 billion, accounting for nearly 73% of all crypto product inflows. This sharp rebound follows a quieter previous week with just $790 million in inflows, highlighting renewed investor appetite as Bitcoin continues to break barriers.

On a daily basis, Bitcoin ETF inflows surged above $1 billion right after BTC soared past $112,000, setting a new all-time high midweek. The increase reflects growing confidence from large institutions and signals strong support for BTC at these elevated price levels.

Thanks to this influx, the total AUM of Bitcoin ETPs has now climbed to $179.5 billion, equaling 54% of the total assets held in gold-backed ETPs — a historical first that showcases the shifting interest toward digital assets.

Ethereum Sees 12 Straight Weeks of Institutional Demand

While Bitcoin stole the spotlight, Ethereum continued to see consistent interest from investors. Ether-based ETPs recorded their 12th consecutive week of inflows, gathering a total of $990 million — the fourth-largest weekly inflow for ETH products to date.

According to market analysts, these consistent inflows represent 19.5% of Ethereum ETP AUM, a significantly higher ratio compared to Bitcoin’s 9.8% in the same time frame. This trend suggests that investors are increasingly positioning themselves in altcoins like Ethereum alongside Bitcoin.

XRP Bleeds Capital, While Solana Shines

Not all digital assets shared the same positive momentum. XRP-related ETPs faced the largest weekly outflows, with $104 million exiting the products. In contrast, Solana continued to gain institutional favor, bringing in $92.6 million in new capital — a testament to its growing popularity among altcoin-focused investors.

US Crypto Fund Issuers Lead the Pack

The lion’s share of these inflows was captured by U.S.-based issuers, with BlackRock’s iShares crypto funds leading at $2.4 billion in net inflows. Fidelity followed with $400 million, and ARK Invest secured $339 million.

European asset manager CoinShares, however, saw modest outflows, totaling $16 million for the week.

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Institutional Exposure Drops Sharply

According to a new report by CoinShares, institutional exposure to Bitcoin ETFs dropped from $27.4 billion in Q4 2024 to $21.2 billion in Q1 2025 — a 23% decline.

However, this decrease was largely driven by an 11% drop in Bitcoin’s price rather than widespread selling. Still, some investors did actively reduce their positions, contributing to the overall decline.

Financial Advisors Buck The Trend

Interestingly, financial advisors went against the broader trend, slightly increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings during the same period. The report suggests a shift from short-term profit-seeking to long-term reserve and treasury strategies, particularly among corporations.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

While professional money managers pulled back, companies continued accumulating Bitcoin for their treasuries, suggesting growing confidence in its role as a store of value.

BlackRock ETF Faces Record Outflow

On May 30, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced a record $430 million in outflows — a sharp reversal after 31 consecutive days of inflows. This marks a moment of reevaluation in institutional trust in ETFs.

Despite that, corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin grew to over 1.98 million BTC by the end of Q1, up 18.6% year-to-date. According to SaylorTracker, Strategy acquired 15,355 BTC on April 28 alone and has accumulated BTC in 17 of the 20 weeks leading up to June 2025.

Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s long-term gains may be fueled more by weakening demand for US bonds than by ETF inflows, indicating a shift in macroeconomic investment logic.

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