What Is the 4-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin four-year cycle is triggered by halving events, which reduce miner rewards by half and slow new supply. Historically, the cycle has three phases:

1. Accumulation Phase: Investors collect Bitcoin as supply tightens. Long-term holders take positions, while new investors enter the market.

2. Bull Run: Approximately 12–18 months after accumulation, prices surge and often reach new all-time highs (ATH).

3. Correction / Bear Market: After the bull run, prices pull back sharply, followed by a multi-year consolidation as the market resets for the next cycle.

“Cycles used to give us a roadmap, but the market is now shaped by more complex dynamics,” says Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

By 2025, institutional ETFs, corporate Bitcoin reserves, and macro factors are reshaping the classic cycle, making price movements more complex than halving alone.

Is the Cycle Broken?

Some analysts argue the four-year cycle broke in 2025. Sustained institutional demand and corporate reserves have softened the typical post-halving drop.

Grayscale predicts strong macro demand and a supportive U.S. regulatory environment will help Bitcoin reach a new ATH in the first half of 2026.

“The four-year cycle theory is no longer valid,” says Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, revising Bitcoin’s 2026 target to $150,000.

Is the Cycle Still Valid?

Other experts believe the cycle continues. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, notes:

“Bitcoin entered a bear market in October 2025, pricing in a slowing economy.”

Rekt Capital says even if the cycle is “broken,” it may be just leveling up. Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB points out that selling pressure largely comes from 2021 veterans and traders expecting a post-halving bear market.

“Altcoins showed no excitement; cycles sometimes stretch. They haven’t ended—only expectations have shifted,” says Alex Wacy.

Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand

By 2025, some countries officially created crypto reserves. Kyrgyzstan was among the first, and the U.S. supported the trend via a March 2025 executive order. Brazil’s Congress also advanced a bill allowing up to 5% of international reserves in Bitcoin.

“If more countries add Bitcoin to foreign exchange reserves, others may follow due to competitive pressure,” says Chris Kuiper, research VP at Fidelity Digital Assets.

Corporate demand is also rising. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and over 100 public companies now hold crypto, with 50 of them controlling around 1 million BTC.

“Some corporations can use market access to purchase Bitcoin—arbitrage opportunities supported by investment mandates and regulations,” Kuiper adds.

However, risks remain. Bear markets or forced corporate sales could put downward pressure on Bitcoin or other digital assets.

Why It Matters

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, government reserves, and corporate adoption will shape market dynamics in 2026. Investors should monitor these factors when assessing price trends and risk.

2025 highlighted questions around Bitcoin’s traditional cycles and showed accelerating demand from nations and corporations. 2026 will test these new norms and risks.

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In an official statement released on December 12, 2025, Nasdaq confirmed that MicroStrategy would remain in the Nasdaq 100 following the annual index rebalancing. The decision will take effect on December 22. The announcement reinforced that the company still satisfies liquidity and market value standards, even with its unconventional treasury structure.

Nasdaq 100 Decision and Its Impact on Institutional Perception

Nasdaq retained MicroStrategy in the index after reviewing its annual adjustment criteria. The decision reflected more than share price performance alone. Liquidity levels and market capitalization played a decisive role in the assessment.

While MicroStrategy continues to generate software-related revenue, it has strengthened its balance sheet with Bitcoin holdings. This approach set the company apart from traditional technology firms. Still, its continued inclusion showed that major indices now tolerate broader risk profiles.

Investors interpreted the move as a sign of growing institutional flexibility. The presence of alternative treasury models within technology benchmarks continues to attract attention across capital markets.

Bitcoin-Focused Treasury Strategy and Market Response

MicroStrategy gained global recognition after shifting toward Bitcoin as a strategic asset in 2020. Under the leadership of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company moved away from a purely software-driven identity. Current data shows that MicroStrategy holds 660,624 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. This amount places the firm among the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders.

Management continues to position Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. Short-term price fluctuations remain a secondary concern. This stance has divided opinion within the financial community.

Critics argue that sharp Bitcoin price movements increase valuation risk. Supporters believe the strategy provides protection against inflation. Nasdaq’s decision strengthened the narrative favoring long-term adoption.

Key market takeaways include:

• Crypto assets becoming permanent fixtures on corporate balance sheets

• Index providers expanding their definition of acceptable risk

• Investors focusing more on long-term strategic narratives

Bitcoin Prices, Volatility, and Corporate Influence

Bitcoin prices have shown heightened volatility in recent weeks. Trading volumes suggest cautious short-term positioning. Despite this, overall market capitalization remains elevated. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin trades at $90,329.66 with a market value of $1.80 trillion. Meanwhile, 24-hour trading volume fell by 20.56% to $63.79 billion. Over the past 30 days, BTC prices declined by 9.34%, underlining persistent market swings.

In this environment, large Bitcoin holders like MicroStrategy continue to shape investor sentiment. Analysts view the company’s index presence as evidence of growing institutional acceptance. Although volatility concerns remain, representation within major indices reduces the perception that such strategies sit at the market’s fringe.

Looking ahead, analysts expect more companies with similar treasury models to gain visibility. This trend could further strengthen Bitcoin’s role within corporate finance.

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Institutional Players Tighten Control Over Bitcoin Supply

Bitcoin ownership has become increasingly concentrated among institutions, custodians, and large holders in 2025. According to Glassnode, major entities now control approximately 5.94 million BTC. This figure represents close to 30 percent of the circulating Bitcoin supply. As a result, the influence of retail investors over available supply continues to decline.

Moreover, this concentration reflects Bitcoin’s transition into a maturing institutional asset. Large holders tend to accumulate with long-term strategies, which reduces liquid supply in the market. Consequently, price movements are increasingly shaped by institutional portfolio decisions rather than short-term retail flows. This shift also changes volatility dynamics across market cycles.

Why does it matter?

As Bitcoin supply concentrates in institutional hands, price discovery becomes more sensitive to corporate and fund-level decisions. This alters risk behavior and strengthens Bitcoin’s connection to traditional financial structures.

ETFs, Corporations, and Governments Accumulate BTC

Publicly listed companies currently hold around 1.07 million BTC. Strategy remains the dominant corporate holder with 660,624 BTC, far ahead of its peers. MARA Holdings follows with 53,250 BTC, while Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 BTC. Japan-based Metaplanet controls 30,823 BTC, closely followed by Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company and Bullish.

At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage approximately 1.31 million BTC. Government wallets also play a notable role, holding an estimated 620,000 BTC. However, cryptocurrency exchanges remain the single largest category. Glassnode data shows exchanges holding roughly 2.94 million BTC, underscoring their central role in market liquidity.

Major Bitcoin holder categories

• Public companies with Bitcoin treasuries

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Government-controlled wallets

• Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges

Price Pressure Persists Despite Institutional Confidence

Despite growing institutional accumulation, Bitcoin’s price action still reflects broader macro conditions. This week, BTC briefly dipped below the 90,000 dollar level amid weakness in the technology sector and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. This movement highlights Bitcoin’s continued correlation with risk assets.

Nevertheless, institutional conviction remains intact. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased 13,700 shares of its own Bitcoin ETF, ARKB, during the pullback. The acquisition, valued at roughly 417,000 dollars, signals sustained confidence. Meanwhile, Strategy has maintained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index for a full year, even as debate continues around the long-term sustainability of crypto treasury models.

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Capital Group’s Bitcoin Strategy 

Instead of buying Bitcoin directly, Capital Group prefers Bitcoin treasury companies. These firms accumulate BTC on their balance sheets, giving institutional investors indirect exposure. Moreover, Capital Group’s portfolio manager, Mark Casey, cites Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as key influences on his investment approach. 

Casey treats Bitcoin as a commodity and structures the portfolio accordingly. Capital Group stands out with its 12.3% stake in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This investment is now worth about $6.2 billion thanks to the stock’s significant value increase. Additionally, Capital Group holds positions in Metaplanet and Mara Holdings, further diversifying its BTC exposure. 

Strategy and Metaplanet Investments 

Strategy transformed from a software company into a BTC-focused firm under Michael Saylor’s leadership. The company currently holds 636,505 BTC on its balance sheet. Capital Group’s $500+ million investment gives it a significant share in Strategy. 

Additionally, the firm acquired 5% of Japan-based Metaplanet, enhancing portfolio diversification. Shares in mining company Mara Holdings further strengthen Capital Group’s corporate Bitcoin exposure. By investing across multiple BTC-focused sectors, the firm spreads its risk effectively. 

Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries and Future Trends 

Currently, corporate treasuries hold over 1 million BTC, worth roughly $117 billion. Strategy remains the largest Bitcoin holder, while Mara Holdings and other firms are growing rapidly. 

Looking ahead, companies like Metaplanet and Semler Scientific plan aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. Metaplanet targets 210,000 BTC, and Semler Scientific aims for 105,000 BTC, signaling continued institutional interest in BTC. 

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New Bitcoin treasuries expand globally 

Three new treasuries were launched during the period. A Dutch company secured 1,000 BTC through a $147 million funding round. Chinese-listed CIMG Inc entered with 500 BTC. US-based Hyperscale Data joined with an initial 3.6 BTC. Together, these firms accounted for 1,503 BTC. 

Future commitments showed strong momentum. Canada’s Universal Digital announced a $100 million Bitcoin strategy in Japan through ReYuu. Japan’s Star Seeds pledged ¥1 billion ($6.8 million). In Australia, InFocus Group allocated AUD 2.5 million ($1.6 million) for a Bitcoin ETF. FiscalNote Holdings, Yoshiharu Global, and Sadot Group also revealed treasury preparation plans. 

Existing companies accelerate Bitcoin purchases 

Michael Saylor’s Strategy led the week with a major purchase, taking its stash above 636,500 BTC. Marathon Digital added 1,838 BTC, while Metaplanet acquired 1,009 BTC and surpassed 20,000 BTC in total. American Bitcoin increased its treasury with 502 BTC. 

Meanwhile, miners and firms added in smaller amounts. Cipher Mining bought 195 BTC, CleanSpark secured 124 BTC, Convano added 155 BTC, and Cango acquired 150 BTC. Sequans, Bitdeer Technologies, and DMG Blockchain Solutions made modest allocations. Altogether, 24 companies added 8,339 BTC during the week. 

Future purchase approvals highlighted even larger sums. Metaplanet received approval for a ¥555 billion ($3.8 billion) raise. Japanese firm S-Science lifted its cap to ¥9.6 billion ($65.3 million). The UK’s Smarter Web Company struck a subscription deal worth £24 million ($32.4 million). Hyperscale Data announced a $20 million ATM-based Bitcoin plan, while Convano pledged ¥2.5 billion ($17 million). 

Institutional participation is also widening. Sora Ventures launched a $1 billion Bitcoin treasury fund. American Bitcoin debuted on Nasdaq under the ticker $ABTC. DDC Enterprise expanded its treasury through Gemini, while Empery Digital executed a share repurchase to add Bitcoin. BlackRock recently purchased $290 million worth of BTC. 

Corporate Bitcoin holdings have now exceeded 1 million BTC. This milestone reinforces Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset for global enterprises. 

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How Did the Corporate Bitcoin Trend Begin and Where Is It Headed?

The adoption of cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin, by large corporate companies in recent years did not happen suddenly. There had been expectations in this direction for years. The cryptocurrency world became even more significant after Donald Trump, who was re-elected as President of the United States, expressed his interest in cryptocurrencies and promised to lift existing bans. The current US government’s support for cryptocurrencies has created an environment of trust, naturally leading to the investment opportunities that corporate firms had been expecting. A new trend emerged, initiated by major companies like Microstrategy and Metaplanet, with other corporate firms joining in. The Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs approved by the SEC also gave the crypto community a more secure perspective. As a result, institutional investors began making more aggressive purchases. With the contribution of institutional investors, Bitcoin rose to around $124,000.

Over the past period, existing institutional companies have accumulated significant funds by adding cryptocurrencies to their corporate treasuries. So, if these funds were to be withdrawn, what could the market face?

What Can We Expect When Institutional Investments Reverse?

Although the entry of institutions into the crypto community has created excitement about growth, serious risks that investors should be aware of are also emerging.

Institutional companies do not act based on emotional impulses like individuals do. They act based entirely on the profit/loss relationship. Large corporate crypto investments made so far have been one of the biggest contributors to Bitcoin reaching these levels. However, companies evaluate their current situation by considering many options, such as their current profit/loss balances, investments they will make, and financial debts. They do not hesitate to make new moves in case of a crisis in the market. In the coming period, if institutions with a large share in the crypto market are forced to sell, they could create significant selling pressure in the market.

Serious financial sales (debt repayment, profit-taking) specifically involving Bitcoin could cause deep declines in the market. Therefore, while monitoring the market, crypto investors also need to keep an eye on the moves of institutional companies.

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*DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT ADVICE*

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The transfer instantly propelled Twenty One to the position of the world’s third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, behind only Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and MARA Holdings.

Behind the Billions: How the Bitcoin Was Allocated

On June 3, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed two large transactions totaling 11,417 Bitcoin. One included a 10,500 BTC transfer to an address connected to SoftBank’s investment in Twenty One Capital. The second involved 917 BTC sent to investors with equity stakes in the venture.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

An even larger move occurred the previous day: 25,812 Bitcoin were shifted in three transactions. That included 7,000 BTC from Bitfinex as direct investment, 14,000 BTC from Tether, and 4,812 BTC as pre-funding for an equity raise.

A New Kind of Bitcoin-Native Finance

Twenty One Capital aims to build Bitcoin-native infrastructure for capital markets—delivering services like lending, custody, and asset issuance directly on Bitcoin rails. The company plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Fitzgerald, valuing the company at $3.6 billion.

While this bold initiative highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, it also reignites debate over transparency. At the Bitcoin 2025 conference, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor argued against onchain proof-of-reserves, citing security concerns. Meanwhile, analytics firm Arkham Intelligence claims to have identified 87% of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings onchain.

The contrast reveals a growing divide in how major players approach visibility and risk in the evolving crypto economy.

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MARA, in its Q4 statement released on February 26, outlined its ambition to become the base layer infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing applications, drawing parallels to Cisco’s role during the internet boom.

MARA Holdings CEO stated, “Whether for Bitcoin mining or AI inference, we believe our technologies will enable others to build while we provide the picks and shovels to deploy new systems and services, such as energy management, load balancing, and infrastructure.”

The company also mentioned that it took a “strategic pause” to assess the first wave of AI, where many of its Bitcoin mining competitors rushed into the field of leveraging data centers to train large language models. Instead, MARA believes that the biggest opportunities often emerge in the second wave, where those who observe and strategically position themselves will benefit most.

MARA’s Focus: AI Inference

MARA is focusing on the second wave of AI, which it believes will revolve around AI inference rather than training. Inference involves the AI model making its own decisions and conclusions without human intervention, after being trained. The company aims to support this with its infrastructure, which it believes will resemble traditional cloud computing.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

MARA’s Q4 Financial Results

MARA reported $214.4 million in revenue for Q4, exceeding the consensus estimate of $183.9 million by 16.5%. The company also added 18,146 Bitcoin to its holdings.

Net income reached $528.3 million, marking a 248% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose by 207% to $794.4 million.

The company increased the number of Bitcoin blocks won by 25% year-over-year, mining a total of 2,492 Bitcoin. All of these Bitcoins were retained under MARA’s new treasury policy, which aims to “retain all BTC” for the company. Additionally, MARA purchased another 14,574 BTC using cash and proceeds from its zero-coupon convertible senior note offerings.

By the end of 2024, MARA held a total of 44,893 Bitcoin, solidifying its position as the second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder behind BitBo’s Strategy as per BitcoinTreasuries.NET data.

Increase in Energy Capacity and Mining Facilities

MARA also increased its hashrate to 53.2 exahashes per second (EH/s), representing a 115% increase from Q4 2023. A significant portion of this increase came from securing 300% more energy capacity in 2024 while expanding to seven Bitcoin mining facilities.

Additionally, MARA launched 25-megawatt micro data centers in Texas and North Dakota, reducing the company’s reliance on grid power.

The strong Q4 performance saw MARA (MARA) shares rise 5.9% in after-hours trading to $13.18, though they later pulled back to $12.89. MARA shares closed the February 26 trading day at $12.45 according to Google Finance data.

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This new acquisition further increases MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings, making the company one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders globally. The company’s Bitcoin purchases are seen as a key indicator in the cryptocurrency world.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy is viewed as an essential roadmap for the company’s continued growth. These acquisitions are part of the strategy to capitalize on Bitcoin’s future potential.

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