U.S. Inflation Cools More Than Expected

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the market consensus of 0.4%. This lower-than-expected figure suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut interest rates without overheating the economy. Historically, such data tends to boost sentiment in risk markets like equities and bonds, as it indicates that inflation may be under control.

Liquidations Trigger a Short-Term Shakeout

The largest wave of liquidations occurred when Bitcoin failed to break through the $114,000 resistance level, leading to forced selling near $111,000. This sell-off initiated a short-term consolidation phase, which helped clear excessive leverage from the market. While painful in the short run, these shakeouts often establish a more stable foundation for future recovery.

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum (ETH) led the liquidation charts with $44.4 million, followed by Bitcoin at $40.5 million. This highlights the ongoing dominance of major assets in leveraged trading environments.

Institutional and Regulatory Momentum Builds for Bitcoin and Crypto

Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term outlook remains solid, supported by positive institutional and regulatory trends. The European Union’s approval of the Swiss-based Bitcoin app Relai under the MiCA framework marks a significant milestone in integrating crypto assets into traditional finance.

With this license, Relai can now offer regulated Bitcoin investment services, accept SEPA payments, and expand its trading operations across Europe. At the same time, JPMorgan’s decision to allow clients to borrow against Bitcoin and Ether holdings is another sign of growing institutional confidence. The bank will custody these assets through a third-party provider, offering a compliant structure for accessing liquidity without selling crypto holdings.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, often a precursor to a major breakout. The rising trendline support sits near $109,700, while descending resistance forms around $114,100. This narrowing structure suggests that volatility could soon return with a decisive move in either direction.

The 20-day EMA ($110,300) crossing above the 50-day EMA ($110,200) signals improving short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI at 60 indicates strengthening sentiment without overbought conditions. If Bitcoin closes above $114,100, the next upside targets could range between $117,000 and $120,000, with potential extension toward $125,000. However, a drop below $111,000 may lead to a retest of the $109,700–$106,700 zone.

If the bulls manage to reclaim the $114,000 resistance with convincing volume, a Q4 rally toward $120K–$125K remains within reach. For now, this consolidation phase appears to be the calm before the next major breakout.

This article does not constitute financial advice.

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Eurozone CPI: 2% 

Expectations and Previous Data: 

• Market Expectation: 2% 
• Previous Month: 2% 

Market uncertainty continues following the release; Bitcoin is trading at $113,800. Investors are closely monitoring ECB’s monetary policy decisions and global macro developments. These figures provide critical signals for the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Persistent inflationary pressures increase the likelihood of continued tightening measures. These developments influence investor risk appetite and the price of assets like Bitcoin. 

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The inflation, which was recorded at 2% in the previous period, indicates that inflationary pressures are continuing in the markets. This data is of critical importance for the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). 

The market expectation was at the 1.9% level. The previous period was recorded at 2%. Inflation came in above expectations. Monthly inflation was recorded at 0.1%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy), which is one of the key inflation indicators, rose to 2.9% on an annual basis.

This shows that the fundamental components of inflation are strengthening. Services sector inflation, at 1.82%, became the component with the highest annual inflation. According to the data, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone came in above expectations, at 2%. This shows that the rate remained at the same level as the 2% recorded in June. The market expectation was 1.9%. 

This situation indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) has reached its inflation target of 2%, but that the pressures on price stability have not completely disappeared. Movements in sub-items, especially core inflation, will continue to provide important clues for the ECB’s future monetary policy decisions.

Following the news, the Bitcoin price is trading at $115,350. In short, there is an environment of uncertainty and reduced risk appetite in the markets. Investors are carefully watching Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate policies.

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U.S. Annual PPI Falls Short of Expectations at 2.3%

The annual PPI for June was announced at 2.3%, below the expected 2.5%. The previous figure stood at 2.7%. This decline indicates easing price pressure at the producer level.

U.S. Monthly PPI Drops to Zero

The monthly PPI came in at 0.0%, significantly below the 0.2% expectation. This figure was 0.3% in May, indicating a noticeable pause in inflation on the producer side.

Surprise Decline in Core PPI

Excluding volatile items like energy and food, the Core PPI also showed weakness:

• Annual Core PPI: 2.6% (Expected: 2.7% / Previous: 3.2%)

• Monthly Core PPI: 0.0% (Expected: 0.2% / Previous: 0.4%)

These declines indicate that core inflation is also slowing. Given that core data often has a more direct impact on Fed decisions, this development is particularly noteworthy.

Impact on Crypto and Financial Markets

In the markets, weaker inflation data may be interpreted as a sign that the Fed could start cutting rates sooner than expected. This could have a positive effect on bitcoin and other altcoins in particular.

In fact, CPI data released in recent weeks also came in below expectations. Now, weak signals from the PPI side suggest that overall inflationary pressure is easing.

Risk assets, in particular, are highly sensitive to rate cut signals. As such, a short-term recovery may be seen in both equity markets and the crypto market.

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April Inflation Data: CPI and PPI 

First, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on May 13. This data reveals inflation trends. A low CPI increases the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, boosting the crypto market. However, high inflation strengthens rate hike pressures, pushing the market down. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report arrives on May 15. PPI measures production costs and guides Fed policies. High PPI is said to trigger a sell-off wave in crypto assets. 

SEC Crypto Roundtable Conference 

Also, on May 13, the SEC is holding a roundtable conference. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak on asset tokenization. The conference will discuss the integration of traditional finance with decentralized finance (DeFi). Positive regulatory messages could rapidly boost the value of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. On the other hand, signals of strict regulation may spark fear in the market. This event will chart the crypto market’s course. 

Powell’s Speech and Additional Data 

Finally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on May 15. Powell’s remarks on interest rate policies will shake the market. A dovish speech could lift prices, while hawkish comments may trigger a decline. On the same day, retail sales data will reflect economic strength. Strong data increases rate hike expectations, dragging crypto down. On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Confidence data will be released. High confidence may bolster stocks while overshadowing the crypto market. 

These five events will create volatility in the crypto market. Investors should closely monitor these developments and plan their moves accordingly. 

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Especially noteworthy are Terra Luna founder Do Kwon’s U.S. trial, China’s new tariff implementation, and the release of FOMC minutes—all of which could significantly impact both traditional and crypto markets.

Inflation metrics such as CPI and PPI may influence expectations around the Fed’s rate path. Additionally, FTX’s creditor distribution and the SEC’s digital asset task force meeting are also likely to be closely watched by investors.

What to Watch This Week & Potential Market Impact

We’ve compiled the most important events to watch this week. These developments in both global economics and the crypto space could bring both opportunities and risks. Here’s a breakdown of the top events:

Tuesday, April 8 – Syscoin’s Nexus Upgrade

• The Syscoin (SYS) network will undergo its “Nexus” upgrade.

• Improved network efficiency may drive increased interest in the $SYS token.

Wednesday, April 9 – Neutron Upgrade & FOMC Minutes

• Neutron (NTRN) will implement the “Mercury” network upgrade.

• A successful upgrade could positively influence $NTRN’s price movement.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released.

• Investors will look for clues about the Fed’s policy stance, potentially triggering market volatility.

Thursday, April 10 – Do Kwon’s Trial, CPI, Jobless Claims, and China Tariffs

• Terra Luna founder Do Kwon will stand trial in the U.S.

• The outcome may have direct implications for LUNA and Terra ecosystem assets.

• U.S. Yearly CPI data will be published. (Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.8%)

• A higher-than-expected inflation print could delay Fed rate cuts, impacting markets broadly.

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will also be released. (Forecast: 223K | Previous: 219K)

• Labor market conditions could further influence investor sentiment.

• China to implement 34% additional tariffs on U.S. goods.

• Rising trade tensions may weigh on market risk appetite.

Friday, April 11 – SEC Meeting, PPI, BlackRock Earnings & FTX Distribution

• The SEC will hold its first meeting of the Digital Assets Task Force.

• Regulatory developments could add pressure to the crypto market in the short term.

• U.S. Yearly PPI report to be released. (Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.2%)

• Continued inflationary pressures may affect Fed rate outlook.

• BlackRock will publish its earnings report.

• Results could influence global investor sentiment and broader financial markets.

• FTX to begin distributions for users with balances over $50,000.

• This marks a major milestone in the bankruptcy process and could impact user confidence.

In summary, this week’s mix of economic data, network upgrades, and legal developments could drive significant volatility in crypto markets. Investors should monitor events closely and adjust strategies accordingly.

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Bitcoin fell sharply after the release of the inflation data, with the price falling as low as $94,500. The $93,800 level is currently an important technical support zone. As can be seen in the chart, this level has worked as a zone where buyers came into play in previous price movements. If this support cannot be maintained and the 4-hour closes are realized below $93,800, it seems possible that selling pressure will increase and the price may fall to $92,000.

Possible Scenarios in Bitcoin

If Bitcoin manages to hold at $ 93,800, a recovery up to the $ 96,000 – 97,000 band can be seen with reaction purchases. However, interest rate pressure in global markets and the strengthening of the dollar index make Bitcoin’s upward movement difficult. Investors need to focus especially on the statements of US Federal Reserve officials and interest rate expectations.

In summary, the $ 93,800 level stands as a critical threshold for Bitcoin. If this support is broken, it should be noted that downward movements may accelerate. However, if buyers gain strength at this level, the possibility of a short-term recovery is also on the table. Signals from the Fed, interest rate policies and global economic developments will be the main factors that will determine the direction of Bitcoin and crypto markets in the coming period.

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Interest Rate Intervention Request

Trump’s statement comes just a week before the Fed meeting in Washington on January 29. However, borrowing costs are often determined by various economic factors, such as market dynamics and US Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve (Fed), as an independent institution, makes decisions aimed at price stability and maximum employment. Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell came up frequently during his presidency.

Powell had previously given a clear “No” when asked at a press conference whether he would resign if Trump ordered him to do so. The Fed’s independence and the principle of making decisions based on economic data call into question the feasibility of such demands.

Biden and Inflation Criticism

Trump harshly criticized the Biden administration, claiming that high inflation in the US has reached “the worst level in history”. However, it was stated that some of Trump’s data on inflation were not accurate. Although Trump claimed that inflation reached record levels under the Biden administration, it was noted that these claims were not true, and that the highest inflation rate in US history was 23.7% in 1920.

Trump also claimed that the US is “50% higher than the historical inflation target”. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed considers as its benchmark, has increased by 2.4% as of November 2024, quite close to the Fed’s 2% target.

USA: Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Capital

In his speech, Trump not only touched on interest rate policies, but also emphasized the US’s claim to leadership in the field of technology. “America will be the capital of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency,” Trump said, signaling that stronger policies will be pursued in these areas.

The US President’s statements reopened the debate on the impact of cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies on economic growth and innovation. In addition, markets have wondered whether such promises would be backed by concrete policy steps.

“Common Sense Revolution” on the Economic Agenda

Describing his presidency as a “common sense revolution”, Trump stated that the US would become a “stronger, richer and more united” country. He also described the economic policies of the Biden administration as a “failure” and claimed that these policies led to chaos in the economy.

These statements are considered as part of the debate on economic policies as well as efforts to redefine the US’s global economic role. However, some of Trump’s claims are disputed by experts in terms of accuracy.

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Major Spike in Bitcoin Open Interest

The December U.S. core inflation data, reported below expectations, sparked positive sentiment in risk-on assets, fueling investors’ hopes for potential interest rate cuts in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci noted, “This news brought smiles to the faces of crypto investors and painted a favorable macroeconomic picture. As a result, the market experienced a strong rally.”

The Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) on Binance increased by 3.30% within just two hours of the CPI report release, reaching a total of $10.96 billion. As of publication, CoinGlass data shows the figure has risen further to $12.20 billion.

The OI metric tracks the total number of unresolved Bitcoin derivative contracts, including options and futures, and is generally viewed as a sign of increasing market participation.

Bullish Signals Across the Crypto Market

Beyond Binance, the total Bitcoin OI across all major exchanges rose by nearly $3 billion over the last 24 hours, totaling $63.19 billion.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Shared, That Memecoin Flew: Up 500%!

CPI data impact on Bitcoin price: Following the CPI release, Bitcoin (BTC) surged from $96,000 to over $100,500 before slightly retracing to $99,587 by the time of publication.

Market Sentiment and Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool measuring sentiment in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, increased by 5 points, reaching a “Greed” score of 75, further solidifying the bullish sentiment.

Despite Bitcoin’s rally, some analysts are cautious about short-term price fluctuations. Fundstrat Capital’s chief investment officer commented, “Nobody will lose money buying at $90,000. However, if they’re lucky and it drops to $70,000, that might be an even better opportunity.”

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In the U.S., the annual CPI inflation rate came in at 2.9%, in line with expectations. Following the announcement, Bitcoin saw a 2.06% increase in its price. The CPI figure indicates that inflation remains at the targeted level, which could mean the central bank might take a more cautious approach toward raising interest rates.

This situation is generally positive for Bitcoin. Low and stable inflation could increase interest in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, lower interest rates could steer investors toward riskier assets, potentially boosting the value of digital currencies like Bitcoin. However, the market’s reaction could still vary based on broader economic factors and investor sentiment.

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