When Bitcoin was trading around $65,800, approximately 70.41% of the assets transferred to exchanges came from large holders. However, this category is not homogeneous. A deeper breakdown reveals a sharp divergence in behavior between seasoned long-term whales and newer large-scale buyers.

Newer Whales Lead the Bitcoin Sell-Off

According to the data, large investors who entered positions at relatively higher price levels transferred roughly 138,000 BTC to exchanges. This accounts for nearly all major inflows during the observed period. In contrast, long-term large holders sent only about 7,500 BTC to trading platforms.

This distinction is critical. The current wave of exchange inflows appears to be driven less by profit-taking and more by defensive selling from investors facing unrealized losses. Rather than distributing gains, newer whales seem to be reducing exposure amid heightened uncertainty.

Rising Exchange Balances Signal Growing Supply

Since January, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased by more than 32,000 BTC, reaching approximately 2.75 million BTC. An increase in exchange balances is typically interpreted as a rise in readily sellable supply, which can amplify downward price pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin’s loss of the $65,000 support level triggered additional volatility. Within 24 hours, the price fell by 4% to 5%, setting off hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged derivatives markets. The forced unwinding of positions further intensified short-term weakness.

Macro Headwinds and the $60,000 Threshold

The broader macro backdrop has also played a role. The decision to raise global tariffs to 15% dampened overall risk appetite, prompting capital rotation toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-sensitive asset in such environments, faced renewed pressure.

CryptoQuant identifies the $60,000 level as a key short-term support zone. Whether exchange inflows begin to slow will likely determine the next directional move. Continued heavy transfers could sustain downside momentum, while a reduction in sell-side flows may allow the market to stabilize and reassess its footing.

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Diplomatic Talks Approach a Decisive Moment

Diplomatic sources indicate that the coming two days could prove pivotal for the future of U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions. If Iran presents a proposal acceptable to Washington within this timeframe, negotiations are expected to resume in Geneva on Friday. Reports in U.S. media suggest that the current offer may represent the final opportunity extended by the Trump administration.

Separately, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran may be willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The possibility of allowing U.S. companies to participate in oil extraction activities has also been mentioned. However, substantial disagreements reportedly remain between the parties, underscoring the fragility of the process.

Bitcoin Pulls Back, Liquidations Surge

Bitcoin, which traded in the $67,000–$68,000 range over the weekend, retreated amid the rising geopolitical tension. During overnight trading, the leading cryptocurrency declined to as low as $64,200.

The pullback triggered increased volatility in derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, 135,199 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $455 million. While digital assets have at times benefited from geopolitical instability, the current environment appears to be prompting short-term risk reduction among market participants.

Gold and Silver Reassert Safe-Haven Status

Precious metals, by contrast, attracted renewed demand. Over the past two years of recurring tensions involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel, gold has climbed from around $2,000 to as high as $5,600. Entering the new week, the metal once again responded positively to geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold, which had recently reclaimed the $5,000 level, rose 1% overnight to $5,165.

Silver posted an even stronger performance, advancing more than 3% to surpass $87.

The current landscape suggests that market volatility will remain closely tied to diplomatic developments. As uncertainty intensifies, capital flows appear to be shifting toward assets traditionally viewed as stores of value during periods of geopolitical stress.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Where Could the Liquidity Come From?

At the heart of Hayes’ argument is the US Treasury General Account (TGA), essentially the government’s primary cash account held at the Federal Reserve. When balances in the TGA are elevated, funds remain parked and largely outside the broader financial system. As the balance declines through government spending, liquidity flows back into banks and markets.

Currently, the TGA balance stands near $750 billion, while the Treasury’s guidance suggests a target closer to $450 billion. That gap implies roughly $301 billion could be released into the financial system as the balance is drawn down.

In addition, the Treasury has initiated bond buybacks aimed at improving market functioning by repurchasing older debt. Hayes estimates that, at the current pace, these buybacks could inject another $271 billion annually. Combined, these two channels represent a potential liquidity boost of approximately $572 billion.

A Form of “Stealth Stimulus”?

Although this process is not formally labeled as monetary easing, Hayes argues that its practical effect may resemble stimulus. While the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy stance in its messaging, Treasury operations are simultaneously increasing cash circulation. In liquidity-driven markets, capital flows often carry more weight than rhetoric.

Historically, periods of expanding liquidity have tended to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

Hayes believes the most difficult phase for crypto may already be over. He points out that Bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with global liquidity conditions. When US dollar supply expands, scarce assets such as BTC often experience upward pressure.

He also notes that extreme funding rates suggest crowded short positioning in the market. If fresh liquidity enters the system while traders are heavily positioned to the downside, a sharp short squeeze could follow. In that scenario, Hayes sees room for Bitcoin to revisit all-time highs and potentially approach the $100,000 level.

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Bitcoin Price Action Signals Bear Market Conditions

Over the past several weeks, Bitcoin has broken through multiple key technical levels. Most notably, the price slipped below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and quickly extended losses toward the $60,000 region. In just four months, Bitcoin has shed nearly 50% of its value, highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure.

One of the clearest signs of stress came from derivatives markets. Weekend liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion, indicating a large-scale unwind of overleveraged positions. Such liquidation cascades are commonly associated with bear market phases, where excessive risk-taking is rapidly flushed out of the system.

Three Catalysts Accelerating the Sell-Off on Bitcoin

According to market analysts, the downturn was not driven by a single event but rather a combination of macroeconomic and cross-market shocks.

The first factor was growing concern over the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. The possibility of Kevin Warsh being appointed as Federal Reserve Chair fueled expectations of a more hawkish stance, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The second driver came from traditional equity markets, particularly the technology sector. Earnings disappointments among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” weighed heavily on sentiment. A sharp decline of roughly 10% in Microsoft shares served as a catalyst for broader risk aversion, spilling over into digital assets.

The third and most striking development occurred in commodities markets. Silver prices collapsed by approximately 40% in just three days, reinforcing a widespread “sell everything” mindset. This type of cross-asset capitulation tends to amplify downside pressure across all speculative markets, crypto included.

Persistent Selling Pressure From U.S. Markets

Additional data points suggest that selling pressure is not limited to derivatives or offshore venues. Spot market activity in the United States continues to show consistent distribution. Over-the-counter transaction flows indicate that U.S.-based participants have remained net sellers, reinforcing the idea that this move reflects deeper repositioning rather than short-term speculation.

What the Broader Picture Suggests

Taken together, Bitcoin’s rapid drawdown, aggressive leverage unwinding, and macro-driven risk-off environment point to a market undergoing structural stress. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the current phase appears driven by a convergence of monetary policy uncertainty, equity market weakness, and cross-asset liquidation dynamics. How long this pressure persists will depend largely on macro conditions and investor risk appetite in the months ahead.

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Declining Volatility Flies Under the Radar

One of Pompliano’s key observations centers on Bitcoin’s volatility. He highlights that volatility has compressed significantly, yet this trend has received far less attention than short-term price movements. Historically, sharp volatility spikes have often preceded dramatic drawdowns of 70% to 80%. In contrast, today’s calmer market structure suggests that such extreme downside scenarios may be less likely, even if price action feels uninspiring in the short term.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Performance Remains Strong

Despite failing to meet the most optimistic price targets, Bitcoin’s broader performance paints a different picture. Over the past two years, BTC has roughly doubled in value, while its three-year performance approaches a 300% gain. This steady compounding underscores Bitcoin’s resilience as a long-term asset. From this perspective, missing a speculative peak does not negate its role as one of the strongest performers in global financial markets over recent years.

No Blow-Off Top, No Brutal Crash

Many market participants expected a classic “blow-off top” toward the end of the third quarter or the start of the fourth quarter. That scenario never materialized. However, Pompliano emphasizes that the lack of a euphoric peak also meant avoiding the equally familiar aftermath: a massive collapse. In past cycles, parabolic rallies were often followed by devastating corrections. This time, the market’s moderation may have acted as a stabilizing force.

Diverging Outlooks for 2026

While Pompliano leans toward a more balanced outlook, not all analysts share his confidence. Some experienced traders believe Bitcoin could face renewed pressure in the coming years. Veteran chartist Peter Brandt has suggested that BTC could revisit the $60,000 region by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Fidelity’s global macro research team has floated the idea that 2026 could represent a consolidation phase, with prices potentially drifting toward $65,000.

Less Hype, More Structural Strength

The current environment may feel underwhelming to investors chasing dramatic upside. However, reduced excitement can also translate into greater structural durability. Without extreme speculation driving prices, Bitcoin may be building a foundation that limits severe drawdowns. In this sense, the market’s restraint today could be quietly preparing Bitcoin for a more sustainable trajectory into 2026 and beyond.

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The Largest Liquidation in History: $19 Billion Evaporated

On the night of October 11, 2025, crypto markets witnessed the largest leveraged position liquidation in history. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new and high tariffs on Chinese imports suddenly ended global risk appetite and created a massive shock wave in financial markets. Cryptocurrencies were also heavily affected, with over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in just hours. This massive liquidation left many investors in difficult situations while painfully highlighting the market’s vulnerability due to leverage once again.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp drop, spiking down from $122,000 levels to below $103,000.

Up to 70% Value Losses in Altcoins on October 11 Night

On the night of October 11, when the record $19 billion liquidation occurred, alongside Bitcoin’s sharp drop, altcoin markets saw massive losses of up to 70%. Particularly high-leverage altcoins with smaller market caps compared to Bitcoin melted away in this panic selling wave. For example, popular altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced significant value losses. The total crypto market cap dropped by approximately $800 billion in just a few hours, falling from $4.3 trillion to $3.64 trillion. These sharp declines once again reminded investors of the risks of leveraged trading and the devastating impact of market shocks on altcoins.

Many Altcoins Dropped to Their Historic Lows

2025 was like a winter season for many altcoins. As a result of deep market-wide corrections and investors shifting toward Bitcoin (increasing “Bitcoin Dominance”), numerous altcoins approached or retested their all-time lows. This was particularly devastating for projects that had inflated with speculative buying during the 2021 and early 2024 bull runs.

Argentina President Scandal: LIBRA Coin and 99% Collapse

In February 2025, Argentine President Javier Milei’s social media post supporting a “meme coin” project called LIBRA caused a major scandal in the crypto market. The coin, associated with the president’s dog’s name, rapidly rose in the first hours with presidential backing, reaching a $4.5 billion market cap. However, immediately after this rapid rise, doubts about the project’s reliability and Milei’s deletion of his posts led to LIBRA’s value collapsing by nearly 99% in hours, dropping to $200 million. This event exposed the extremely speculative nature of meme coin projects and the manipulative influence of political figures, causing many investors to suffer massive losses.

Ethereum Spiking Down to $1,380

The general market correction that began after Bitcoin reached historic highs deeply affected Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin. During the sharp price movements in 2025, Ethereum experienced a steep drop to $1,380 levels at one point.

Having shown more resilient performance earlier in the year with less loss relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum retreated to these important psychological levels amid overall market uncertainty and selling pressure. This drop was a concrete example of how panic in the market and macroeconomic factors can impact even the strongest projects.

Fear Index Hit Its Lowest Level in the Last 3 Years

The Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment in crypto markets, dropped to 9 amid all these turbulences, reaching one of the lowest levels in the past three years. Values close to 0 on the index represent “Extreme Fear,” while values close to 100 represent “Extreme Greed.”

The index falling to 9 indicated that investors were in great panic and uncertainty, completely avoiding risk, with intense selling pressure dominating the market. Although this level is typically considered close to market bottoms, it was striking data revealing how worn investor psychology was and how shaken confidence in the market had become.

An Unforgettable Year in the Crypto Markets

This chain of events proved that the past year was an unforgettable and lesson-filled period for crypto markets. Excessive leverage, macroeconomic uncertainties, and sudden collapses triggered by political events forced investors to rethink the importance of risk management and market sentiment.

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A Global Cash Shortfall Behind the Market Rout

In his recent commentary, Kiyosaki claimed that what he calls the “everything bubble” is finally bursting, driven by a growing global need for liquidity. According to him, the core driver of the decline is a scarcity of cash across major economies, which is pressuring markets simultaneously.

He also referenced economist Lawrence Lepard’s thesis, suggesting that governments will eventually respond to their escalating debt burdens with massive monetary expansion. Kiyosaki describes this expected wave of money printing as “The Big Print,” arguing that such a policy shift would significantly increase the value of assets like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum as traditional currencies weaken.

For investors currently in need of liquidity, he advised selling assets only out of necessity, saying that panic in the markets often stems from cash requirements, not a loss of confidence in long-term fundamentals.

Kiyosaki Plans to Accumulate More Bitcoin After the Downtrend

Despite the turbulence, Kiyosaki reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance. He noted that once the current market decline runs its course, he intends to buy more Bitcoin, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s hard-capped supply of 21 million coins.

He also encouraged followers to establish “Cashflow Clubs” based on his financial education board game, emphasizing that learning in groups can help individuals avoid costly mistakes.

Fear Index Hits Extreme Levels: A Potential Opportunity?

Crypto analyst Mister Crypto observed that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 16, placing the market firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Historically, such conditions have often signaled possible accumulation phases for long-term investors.

Santiment Urges Caution on Early Bottom Calls

Meanwhile, analytics firm Santiment has advised traders to remain skeptical of widespread claims that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom. As highlighted in recent reporting, the firm notes that heavy confidence in a reversal often appears before further declines, not after them.

Santiment pointed out that Bitcoin’s brief dip below $95,000 on Friday triggered a surge of optimistic posts claiming the worst was over. However, according to historical market behavior, true bottoms typically form when most traders expect prices to fall even further.

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Whale Activity and Market Dynamics

This week, a notable whale transaction drew attention after 2,400 BTC was transferred to Kraken, suggesting potential selling pressure. Data from Arkham indicates that this movement aligns with a broader uptick in whale outflows over recent weeks.

Glassnode analysts emphasize that these actions should not be misunderstood as “OG whales dumping.” Their metrics show that the monthly average spent by long-term holders has climbed from around 12,000 BTC per day in early July to nearly 26,000 BTC as of this week. Such a shift points to a steady, structured distribution pattern. According to Glassnode, this is not panic-driven selling but rather a normal phase of late-cycle profit realization.

Is Bitcoin Approaching a Market Top?

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, argues that whale selling today reflects organized capital rotation rather than distress. In his view, cooling momentum does not necessarily imply that Bitcoin has hit a peak. As long as market liquidity remains resilient and fresh buyers continue to absorb supply, the uptrend could remain intact.

Liu also notes that Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit ratio, currently around 0.476, may indicate that a short-term bottom is taking shape. However, he warns that this metric alone cannot confirm a definitive reversal.

Historical Patterns and Structural Shifts

Charlie Sherry of BTC Markets adds that whale selling typically gains significance only when accompanied by weak buy-side support — a factor that may be relevant in the current environment. Even so, he believes it is too soon to determine whether the market has truly reached a cycle top.

Historically, Bitcoin peaks have occurred roughly four years apart. The highs of 2017 and 2021 support this pattern, and the most recent all-time high on October 6, 2025 — emerging 1,050 days after the previous bottom — fits within this timeline. Still, Sherry cautions against relying too heavily on this model. With the rise of ETFs, institutional involvement, and shifting global liquidity conditions, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year rhythm may be evolving.

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A Cycle Never Seen in Bitcoin’s History

Historically, Bitcoin’s market movements have been shaped by two overlapping cycles: the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle and the expansion of global M2 money supply. Central banks have historically injected liquidity into the economy in four-year intervals, which has coincided with Bitcoin’s bull markets.

However, Woo argues that the upcoming bear market will be shaped by a “cycle people have forgotten” — the business cycle. “The last major business cycle contractions occurred in 2001 and 2008, before Bitcoin even existed,” Woo noted. This means that Bitcoin’s behavior during a traditional economic recession has yet to be tested. He added, “If we get a business cycle downturn like 2001 or 2008, it will show whether Bitcoin acts more like tech stocks or like gold.”

Business Cycles and the Liquidity Effect

A business cycle downturn, also known as a recession, occurs when GDP declines, unemployment rises, and consumer spending weakens — signaling a contraction in economic activity. Woo emphasized that crypto markets do not operate in isolation; they are deeply influenced by liquidity conditions in the global economy.

For instance, during the dot-com crash of 2001, U.S. stock markets fell by over 50% in two years. Similarly, the 2008 financial crisis triggered a 56% plunge in the S&P 500, driven by collapsing credit markets and widespread financial instability. These events show how powerful liquidity shocks can reshape entire asset classes — including, potentially, digital assets like Bitcoin.

Rising Risks for the Next Cycle

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks employment, income, industrial production, and retail sales to identify potential recessions. Although there was a brief pandemic-related downturn in 2020, no major recession appears imminent at the moment. Still, persistent trade tariffs and slowing global growth could weigh on markets throughout the first half of 2026.

Woo concluded that markets are inherently speculative — they price in future expectations, including money supply shifts. “Either Bitcoin is signaling that global markets have peaked, or it’s about to catch up,” he said.

In other words, the fate of the next crypto bear market may not hinge solely on Bitcoin’s halving cycles but on the broader rhythm of the global economy.

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A New Trigger Might Be Needed to Sustain the Rally

According to a recent on-chain analysis, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $117,100 resistance level, the market could face a deeper contraction toward the lower end of its trading range. Currently hovering around $110,840 — roughly 5% below that threshold — Bitcoin’s inability to stay above this zone has historically led to prolonged mid- or long-term corrections.

Experts note that many long-term holders have been realizing profits in recent weeks, a potential signal of waning demand and reduced market confidence.

Volatile Month Ahead and Possible Sideways Consolidation

Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma anticipates a turbulent month ahead for Bitcoin, with price fluctuations likely to occur between $116,000 and $120,000. He adds that consolidation — a period of sideways movement — appears to be the most probable scenario following the recent sharp market decline.

Despite the uncertainty, some key indicators remain positive. Varma points out that U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record healthy inflows. Before the latest downturn, these funds saw nine consecutive days of inflows totaling nearly $5.96 billion, reflecting sustained institutional interest.

Rate Cut Expectations Could Provide Support

Market optimism is also being fueled by expectations of continued rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Historically, lower interest rates have boosted demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors move away from traditional fixed-income investments. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in a 95.7% probability of another rate cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting.

Positive Outlook Toward Year-End

Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, believes the overall setup for digital assets is becoming “increasingly constructive” heading into year-end. He notes that easing monetary policy, alongside growing institutional demand, could pave the way for Bitcoin to move toward $150,000 in the coming months.

Meanwhile, some analysts remain even more bullish. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s Joe Burnett project that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and accelerating structural demand.

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