Several Bitcoin on-chain cyclical indicators that were formerly at the borderline have now moved back to indicate a bull market, said CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. “Bitcoin is still in a bull market” he said in an August 9 X post. Pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB, who also emphasized that the current decline offered just a temporary price reduction on Bitcoin, reiterated this view.

On August 5—a day known as “Crypto Black Monday“—the price of Bitcoin had dropped to $49,751. This represented its first plunge below $50,000 since February, which caused the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator to exhibit negative signs for the first time since January 2023, just after the FTX crash. But Bitcoin has subsequently recovered, trading back over the crucial $60,000 mark at $60,732 at the time of publishing.

Analysts Divided on Bitcoin’s Future Price Action

Although some traders believe the recent price decline could have been a bear trap based on the fast rebound, others remain wary. Having dropped to a “Extreme Fear” score of 17 on August 6, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has subsequently recovered to a “Neutral” level of 48, therefore signaling a change in market mood.

Though the market cycle indicator shows positive indications, other observers think Bitcoin’s price may drop further more before the next bull run. Head of research Markus Thielen of Xx Research said on August 7 that when Bitcoin prices drop below the low $40,000s, the best moment to begin the next bull market.

In an August 6 study, Cathie Wood’s investment company Ark Invest also stressed in the most important price supports of Bitcoin: $52,000 and $46,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt also said that the present fall in Bitcoin reminds one of the 2015–2017 halving bull market cycle, which was followed by a notable bull run.

Although the market cycle indicator shows a more positive picture, the divergent opinions among experts emphasize the uncertainty about the short-term price behavior of Bitcoin.

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In an August 8 analysis video, crypto trader Matthew Hyland underlined as Bitcoin topped $61,000: “Bitcoin is seeing a massive green weekly candle with a huge wick,” Suggesting a great probability that Bitcoin’s bottom is already in, he said this trend is turning into a “massive bull hammer” on the weekly time frame.

Market Sentiment Shifts After Brief Rebound

On August 8, Bitcoin nearly reached $62,510; it then settled at $61,068, a 12.46% increase from the day before. Those who think the August 5, first since February, recent drop below $50,000 might have been using a bear trap—a strategy wherein experienced traders sell off assets to momentarily lower the price, thereby capturing short-sellers.

Under alias Byzantine General, a merchant, said on X, “What a weird weekly. Most likely the most beautiful bear trap I have ever seen.” The attitude of futures traders has also altered; they now account for 52.48% of the market, obviously leaning toward long bets depending to CoinGlass data.

Future Outlook Remains Divided

Though there is strong momentum, not all analysts feel that Bitcoin has bottom line. Some worry that additional unfavorable occurrences might happen before the next significant increase. Head of research at 10x Research Markus Thielen remarked on August 7 that for optimal timing of the next bull market entry, Bitcoin prices might have to go into the mid $40,000s. Likewise, Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, suggested that within the next sixty days both $40,000 and $80,000 are equally reasonable price ranges.

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