ETH is currently trading at $4,376, marking a 197% increase from its April bottom. Traders often monitor whale activity as a market signal. Large-scale selling usually signals weakness, while accumulation points to bullish expectations. 

Not all whales timed the market correctly. Some sold close to the bottom and later re-entered at higher levels. For instance, on May 22 a wallet bought 1,425 ETH for $3.8 million after selling 2,522 ETH for $3.9 million in April. 

ETF Inflows and Treasury Purchases 

Ethereum’s rally has been largely supported by ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations. In June, Sharplink Gaming and BitMine Immersion Technologies made their first ETH purchases, during a period when ETH traded between $2,228 and $2,813. 

BitMine now holds $8.22 billion worth of ETH, making it the largest ETH treasury. Sharplink Gaming follows with $3.69 billion. Altogether, ETH treasuries own $15.83 billion in ETH, representing about 2.97% of the total supply. 

August proved strong for Ethereum ETFs, which recorded $3.87 billion in inflows. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in outflows. Meanwhile, some institutions shifted back to BTC. Arkham reported that ETFs sold $135 million in ETH while buying $332 million in BTC. 

Ethereum broke past its 2021 all-time high of $4,878, climbing to $4,934 on August 24. Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell projects ETH could reach between $12,000 and $15,000 by year-end. On the other hand, some experts believe market focus will eventually return to Bitcoin 

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According to Glassnode data, this rise shows LTHs losing confidence and liquidating their coins. Ethereum Liveliness is calculated as the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days accumulated. When this ratio increases, distribution rises, and the accumulation phase ends. 

CMF Remains in Negative Territory 

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is currently at -0.08. A negative CMF signals reduced capital inflow to ETH and declining buying interest. This decline suggests most Ethereum investors prefer to stay on the sidelines due to market stagnation. Falling buying interest combined with selling pressure increases downward price pressure on ETH. 

New Lows Possible for Ethereum Price 

ETH is currently trading around $2,429. If LTH selling continues, the price could drop to $2,185 and then to $2,027. These levels are short-term support zones. According to FXStreet data, 72,000 ETH entered exchanges on June 20, indicating LTHs are preparing to sell and increasing market selling pressure. TradingView data shows Ethereum is the second most traded cryptocurrency with about 552K active addresses, reflecting direct trading activity only. 

Additionally, the daily (14-period) RSI for Ethereum was about 46.5 on June 21, 2025, a neutral zone around 50, indicating neither oversold (<30) nor overbought (>70) conditions. 

However, a potential demand rebound could reverse this downtrend. With renewed investor interest, ETH price could rise up to $2,745. For this scenario, market momentum must strengthen. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have been increasing Bitcoin’s dominance while causing capital outflows from altcoins. Moreover, the presence of more than 17 million altcoins in the market leads to excessive capital dispersion, hindering overall growth. Here are the top three reasons why the altcoin season is being delayed. 

Increased Altcoin Selling Pressure and Lack of Confidence 

CryptoQuant’s “1-Year Cumulative Bid/Ask Volume Delta” shows a continued net sell pressure of $36 billion in altcoins. This negative delta reflects a risk-off sentiment, with investors increasingly offloading their altcoin holdings. Investors seeking safer options have lost interest in altcoins in the short term. For a recovery, the buy volume must surpass the sell volume — a condition that has not yet been met. Analysts emphasize that this metric must turn positive for an altcoin season to begin. 

Geopolitical Instability and Bitcoin Dominance 

Recent global conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran clash, have negatively impacted the altcoin market. In such crises, investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven. While Bitcoin shows price volatility, altcoins suffer deeper losses. As a result, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has surpassed 64% and continues its upward trend with six consecutive green weekly candles. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks could persist for weeks or even months, keeping risk-averse sentiment high toward altcoins. This makes a near-term altcoin season unlikely. 

Record Increase in Altcoin Numbers and Market Dilution 

According to CoinMarketCap, the number of altcoin projects exceeded 17.34 million as of June 2025 — a staggering 850x increase compared to the end of 2021. However, this surge has caused extreme market fragmentation. Capital is spread too thin across countless small tokens, limiting overall market growth. The total altcoin market cap stands at $1.13 trillion, still 30% below its 2021 peak. As a result, most small projects struggle to succeed. Nonetheless, major projects like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP continue to attract investor attention. Even if an altcoin season begins, only strong, select projects are likely to benefit. 

Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass the $112K Threshold – Here’s Why 

Due to high sell pressure, growing Bitcoin dominance fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, and excessive capital dilution across the altcoin space, it may take longer for altcoins to recover. Until market conditions and investor sentiment improve, expecting a full-fledged altcoin season might be unrealistic. Investors would be wise to focus on fundamentally strong major projects. 

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