At this point, investors are wondering: Which direction will the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions push the market in the short term? The market seems to be pricing in possible scenarios already, but the outcomes are still unclear.

February CPI Data and Market Reaction

BLS data for February shows:

• Housing costs up 0.2%

• Food prices up 0.4%

• Energy costs up 0.6%

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2%

Stephen Coltman, macro head at 21Shares, said:

“Will the Fed ignore this temporary shock, or will it maintain a hawkish stance?”

Despite February CPI, crypto markets remained resilient. Total crypto market capitalization indicators, excluding Bitcoin, confirm this. BTC traded around $69,468 and ETH at $2,028.

What Does This Scenario Mean for Bitcoin?

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, noted that Bitcoin is likely to remain within the $68,000–$74,000 range in the short term. However, the $75,000 resistance level is approaching, and surpassing it could signal a medium-term consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000.

Historical price data supports this scenario: after geopolitical shocks, BTC typically rebounds by 15% or more. This suggests potential price growth to the $77,000–$80,000 range, serving as a key indicator for investor expectations.

Oil Attacks and Stagflation Concerns

According to CME FedWatch, only 0.6% of investors expect a rate cut at the March 18 meeting. Following attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters, Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel. A short-lived relief rally faded, and Bitcoin slipped below $70,000.

On-chain data indicates sustained selling pressure due to stagflation fears triggered by geopolitical tensions and declining short-term rate cut expectations. High oil prices complicate ignoring stagflation scenarios and make rate cuts less likely.

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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost said on Monday:

“Periods like this generally don’t favor risk-taking. The sharp drop in Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance clearly reflects this.”

This ratio measures investor leverage intensity, calculated by comparing futures Open Interest (OI) to BTC reserves held on the exchange. Since February, it has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop from $96,000 to $69,000.

Spot Buying or Leveraged Speculation?

Low leverage eases market pressure. If the ratio stays low while Bitcoin consolidates, spot buying likely drives prices—a healthier dynamic.

CryptoQuant analyst “IT tech” adds:

“Bottom callers are multiplying. Yet new buyers are still underwater. LTHs aren’t selling, but they’re not absorbing either. STH capitulation is present but not extreme. It’s too early to call a structural low.”

Glassnode reports momentum has modestly firmed. RSI is rising from recent lows, but price action still lacks strong bullish confirmation. Spot activity remains subdued, volume limited; participation is slow, though signs of stabilization appear.

Market Movements and Altcoins

Spot markets rose 4.3% to $2.46 trillion, following President Trump’s comment that the Iran war could be “over soon.”

Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 in early Asian trading; oil dropped 28% from Monday’s $120 high. Ether remained weak but above $2,000. Some altcoins, like Hyperliquid and Zcash, surged over 11%.

Momentum and internal metrics hint at improvement, yet decisive bullishness is absent. Spot activity low, volume thin, participation slow, but the market is slowly stabilizing.

Futures and Options

• Open Interest shows mild leverage build-up.

• Long-side funding sharply negative; short demand strong.

• Perpetual CVD rose aggressively; conviction limited.

• Options market more balanced: volatility spread narrows, 25-delta skew declines; downside hedge demand eases.

ETFs remain relatively strong: net inflows rise, trading volumes increase. MVRV ratio negative; average ETF investor still underwater, positioning stress high.

On-Chain Signals

• Transfer volume rising; capital movement slightly stronger.

• Active addresses and fees remain low; network quiet.

• Realized profit in supply and NUPL improve slightly; stress easing but market remains fragile.

• STH/LTH ratio elevated; short-term participation high, hot capital suppressed, speculative churn limited.

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However, the technical outlook remains at a critical juncture. According to analysts, if the $68,000 level fails to hold, the recent rise may remain only a short-term liquidity-driven move. On the other hand, a weekly close above this region would signal that bulls are regaining control.

Can Bitcoin Hold Above $68,000?

According to TradingView data, the BTC/USD pair was trading around $68,480 on Bitstamp. This level sits just above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently positioned near $68,338.

Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is facing resistance from this trendline, suggesting that the latest recovery could turn into a “post-breakdown retest of the EMA into new resistance.” According to the analyst, for Bitcoin to reverse historical tendencies, it must secure a weekly close above the EMA and flip it into support.

On shorter timeframes, analyst Jelle emphasized that holding the 50 EMA ($68,000) as support on the four-hour chart is crucial to confirm the recovery. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day EMA at $69,220, the price could rally toward $74,508. However, this zone is seen as an area where strong selling pressure may emerge.

Could a Liquidity Hunt Push Bitcoin to $80,000?

Many traders are discussing a potential liquidity sweep scenario due to heavy sell orders placed above $72,000.

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin tapped liquidity around $70,000, but the main cluster of orders remains above the current price. Approximately $2 billion in sell orders are sitting between $72,450 and $75,000.

If the $75,000 level is broken, it could trigger forced short liquidations and spark a squeeze that may drive the price toward $80,000.

Analyst AlphaBTC stated that unless a strong downside catalyst appears, higher levels are likely to be tested in the coming weeks.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Support the Upside

Signs of renewed institutional demand are emerging. Data from Farside Investors shows that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive days.

A total of $765 million flowed into these products on Tuesday and Wednesday, with $507 million recorded on Wednesday alone — the highest daily inflow since February 2.

According to some market commentators, this rally reflects institutional accumulation rather than retail FOMO. If growing demand pressure combines with a technical breakout, Bitcoin’s upward momentum could strengthen further.

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The cryptocurrency market gained 3.7% in the last 24 hours, with total market capitalization increasing by roughly $120 billion to reach $2.43 trillion. Indeed, this movement reflects a rapid improvement in investor sentiment. Santiment noted that while BTC was preparing to retest the $60,000 level, it was poised to climb above $70,000 in a short period.

Santiment Charts Reveal Investor Behavio

Latest chart data illustrates an interesting correlation in investor sentiment. Periods when retail traders’ predictions of BTC falling peaked (the ‘blue’ zones) often present strong buying opportunities, while ‘red’ peaks, when the crowd expects a rise, signal profit-taking opportunities for professional players. At this point, renewed FOMO behavior explains why prices began to move sideways.

Bitcoin Bull Trap and Relief Rally

Analyst Chiefy stated, “Bitcoin has entered the last bull trap of this cycle,” adding that the current chart “echoes 2022.” BTC is forecasted to drop to $44,000 over the next ten days.

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA described the current rise as “just a relief rally.” They emphasized that the inflow of BTC to Binance relative to total exchange reserves remained low at 0.012:

“A low ratio indicates fewer BTC are being sent to exchanges, weakening immediate selling and supply pressure. Indeed, this could pave the way for a relief rally. When the ratio remains low, upward price reactions can trigger short squeeze scenarios—so be ready for a short-term jump.”

Institutional Influence and Market Manipulation

Analyst Bull Theory noted that following the Jane Street lawsuit halting market manipulations, the crypto market gained over $200 billion in just 48 hours. MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe added:

“Whether it’s options gamma games or software companies influencing BTC prices, it doesn’t matter. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is still very low.”

What Is a Bull Trap?

A bull trap is a false upward signal in technical analysis that misleads investors and can cause significant losses. When a market is in a downtrend, prices suddenly break resistance levels, giving the impression that a rise has started. However, the surge is short-lived, and the asset falls sharply again, leaving bullish investors at a loss.

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Fear and Greed Index Plummets

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index collects data from volatility, market momentum, BTC dominance, and social media comments to measure investor and community sentiment. The final score ranges from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), with price fluctuations and momentum accounting for 50% of the result.

The index has remained below 30 since BTC’s correction began on January 22. During Saturday’s market-wide crash, where over $2.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, the index dropped to 14 – the lowest level since mid-December.

If you missed Saturday’s events: BTC briefly recovered to $84,000 after Thursday’s crash but suddenly fell to $75,500, marking its lowest level since last April. This means BTC lost $20,000 since January 18, when it stood at $95,500. Altcoins followed suit, many reaching lows not seen in over a year.

Opportunity Amid the Fear?

Before declaring BTC “dead” again, the Fear and Greed Index shows investors are in extreme fear. This is where Warren Buffett’s famous advice comes to mind: “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” Historical data supports this approach, as similar emotional swings have often led to quick reversals.

Robert Kiyosaki also comments: the rich go on a buying spree when markets are “on sale” (during a crash), while others panic and sell. This current fear environment could, with the right strategy, present a window of opportunity for investors.

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According to JPMorgan Private Bank strategists, this divergence is no coincidence. Markets are not reading the current dollar weakness as a permanent macro shift and continue to price Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a safe haven.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s lack of a parallel rise alongside the dollar’s retreat signals a redefinition of the dollar–Bitcoin relationship. JPMorgan suggests the key factor lies in why the dollar weakened in the first place.

Dollar Weakness Is Flow-Driven, Not Macro

JPMorgan strategists emphasize that the recent wave of dollar selling is not rooted in a major change in growth outlook or monetary policy expectations. Instead, the movement is largely driven by short-term capital flows and market sentiment.

Yuxuan Tang, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, told CoinDesk that interest rate differentials have widened in favor of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. This indicates that the dollar’s fundamentals remain intact and the recent decline reflects a temporary sell-off.

The bank notes a similar process occurred last April, with the dollar regaining stability as the U.S. economy picked up pace. This helps explain why markets are not treating the current dollar decline as a lasting regime shift.

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Mirror Gold

Today’s market mirrors last year’s April scenario in several ways. Historically, Bitcoin has gained value when the dollar weakened. This time, the pattern reversed.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell about 10% over the past year, while Bitcoin lost roughly 13%. This divergence points to a perceptual shift, according to JPMorgan.

Investors continue to view Bitcoin not as a reliable dollar hedge but as a risk asset sensitive to global liquidity conditions. The prominence of gold and emerging market assets during dollar weakness reinforces this perception.

Bitcoin’s confinement to a narrow price range shows that crypto investors are not interpreting the current dollar decline as a strong macro signal. Without a clear shift in monetary policy, a weaker dollar alone is insufficient to draw new capital into crypto markets.

JPMorgan Framework: Bitcoin Lags in Dollar Diversification

The bank notes that, under current conditions, assets that directly benefit from dollar diversification are more attractive than Bitcoin. In periods of dollar weakness, gold and other precious metals remain the first choice.

Recently, this has proven true: gold maintained its upward trajectory while Bitcoin remained range-bound. JPMorgan suggests Bitcoin’s performance may remain limited until growth expectations or currency dynamics once again become the primary market drivers.

As long as flows and sentiment dominate, the largest cryptocurrency may continue to lag behind traditional macro hedges.

Bitcoin (BTC): $87,957

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Why it matters?

The growing gap between gold and Bitcoin highlights a shift in investor behavior during periods of macro uncertainty. Similar divergences in the past have often preceded changes in risk appetite across global markets.

Gold Strength Supported by Rates, ETFs, and Central Banks

Gold’s rally has been underpinned by several macro factors. The US dollar slipped to a two-month low during the Asian session, providing additional support for bullion. Markets are currently pricing in a 76% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in January, further boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets.

According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month of the year except May. Central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to reinforce demand. As interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, keeping investor interest elevated.

Bitcoin Under Pressure After Liquidations

Bitcoin remains under selling pressure following an hour-long liquidation event that wiped out nearly $200 million in long positions on Monday. The asset is still trading roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,210, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment.

While gold tends to benefit from uncertainty, Bitcoin often trades more like a risk asset. During periods of heightened caution, capital flows typically favor stability over volatility, limiting upside momentum for cryptocurrencies.

Technical Signals Draw Market Attention

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has not gone unnoticed by analysts. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index against gold has fallen below 30, a level reached only a handful of times historically. Analysts note that previous occurrences often aligned with market bottoms, though outcomes have varied depending on macro conditions.

The BTC/Gold pair is also testing a long-term ascending support line that has held since 2019. The current Z-Score sits near -1.76, placing the ratio in oversold territory. Still, analysts caution that technical patterns alone are not enough to predict a reversal, especially with inflation remaining above target levels globally.

Liquidity Levels Shape Short-Term Outlook

Bitcoin’s liquidation map highlights key price zones that could influence near-term volatility.

• Approximately $740 million in liquidity sits above the market near the $92,113 level.
• Around $175 million in liquidity is positioned below price near $87,112.

This imbalance suggests that upside moves could trigger larger liquidation cascades. However, sustained momentum will likely depend on spot market demand rather than derivatives activity alone.

On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals

On-chain indicators reveal continued spot selling on Binance and Coinbase over recent days. While Coinbase briefly showed signs of net buying, traders are watching closely to see whether daily closes confirm a shift in behavior. Binance, meanwhile, has recorded spot selling for eleven consecutive days.

ETF-driven inflows previously supported Bitcoin’s price action. However, data suggests that some of these coins have been redistributed via Binance, making renewed spot demand on the exchange a key factor for price stability.

Macro Data Could Influence Market Direction

Markets are now focused on upcoming US labor data following a six-week government shutdown. Economists expect a modest 50,000 increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, pointing to a cooling but resilient labor market.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson notes that even moderate weakness in the data could strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Although the Fed recently reduced rates by 25 basis points and signaled a potential pause, officials have emphasized that current inflation levels do not reflect deeper structural pressure.

For now, gold continues to benefit from caution and uncertainty. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Whether the gap between the two assets narrows will depend on how quickly investor confidence returns to higher-risk markets

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What Does “Last-Resort” Mean?

Phong Le emphasized that the company’s strategy of buying and holding Bitcoin is inherently long-term, and that this approach is both intentional and necessary. The desire to sell is not the company’s main strategy; rather, it would only be an option in case of necessity. A possible scenario in such a case can be described as follows:

If the market value of MSTR shares falls below the company’s net asset value (NAV) and the company cannot find other sources to meet dividend or debt obligations. In such a situation, selling Bitcoin would be considered “mathematically” justifiable. However, Le does not expect this to happen easily.

This article may also interest you: Are Low Stablecoin Yields a Signal for Ethereum’s Rise?

Saylor’s Bitcoin Purchases Continue

Despite the decline in share prices, there is no change in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-based roadmap.

The company’s founder and chairman, Michael Saylor, reiterated his commitment on X, stating that he will not back down.

On November 17, the company announced the purchase of 8,178 Bitcoins. The value of this purchase is $835.6 million, representing a significant increase compared to previous weeks, as recent weekly average purchases were around 400–500 BTC.

With this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have risen to 649,870 BTC, valued at approximately $56 billion at current prices.

MicroStrategy (Strategy) Nedir?

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The stagnant movement in stablecoin yields shows that the market is not overheated yet. This increases the possibility that Ethereum may regain strength in the short term and rise toward the $3,200 level.

Leverage Pressure Remains Weak!

Santiment closely monitors the lending yields (APR rates) of major stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. These rates are considered critical because they generally reflect the leverage demand in the market. Currently, yields are moving between 3.9% and 4.5%, a range historically associated with low leverage usage.

In other words, investors are definitely avoiding aggressive positions. The market has not yet entered a phase of speculative excess, and this environment is thought to signal a period where prices still carry upward potential before forming a major peak.

This article may also interest you: BlackRock Keeps the Wheel Turning With Its Bitcoin ETF Profits!

Will Ethereum Rise?

Ethereum has dropped more than 21% in the past 30 days. The selling pressure caused by the massive $19 billion liquidation wave on October 10 still hasn’t fully disappeared from the markets. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans on Chinese imports have significantly suppressed global risk appetite.

However, the picture has been changing in recent days. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $312.6 million. The three-week outflow trend has been broken, and institutional investor interest has returned. At the same time, technical indicators are strengthening day by day.

The analytics firm states that Ethereum was trading around $3,000 at the time of the report and that current on-chain dynamics suggest the asset may be preparing for a move toward $3,200. This indicates approximately a %7 upward potential from the current levels.

If a close below $3024 occurs, it was mentioned that Ethereum could experience an internal structural decline. Yesterday, this close happened, and the price pulled back to $3000. If it closes below $3000, a further decline toward the $2950–$2900 range appears likely. These levels seem more probable for a potential rebound.

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The post Are Low Stablecoin Yields a Bullish Sign for Ethereum? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

• Investor confidence is decreasing.
• Market psychology is shifting.
• Capital flows are turning negative.

Following these negative developments, it would not be wrong to say that potential market maps may be redrawn.

What is Usdt.d?

Think of all the stablecoins in the crypto market. Among them are USDT, USDC, USDE, and many others. This is exactly where usdt.d comes into play. The total amount of USDT circulating in the market, relative to the overall crypto market capitalization, gives us this metric. In short, it shows what percentage of investors’ funds currently sit in USDT.

Why Is USDT Dominance Important?

As mentioned earlier, usdt.d helps us follow certain strategic pathways. When this ratio increases, it indicates that investors are moving out of risky assets and into USDT as a “safe haven.” When this shift occurs, we see that market participants are favoring stablecoins.

In this article, you may also want to check out: The Critical Ethereum Update Date Is Approaching!

What Is Happening in November 2025?

As of November 2025, the long-standing 6% usdt.d resistance, unbroken since 2022, has finally been breached. This 6% zone was the top of a declining trend, and if momentum continues here, we could move toward another major breakout.

After giving an internal structural breakout and then moving sideways, usdt.d appears likely to retest the highlighted zone. If a pullback occurs to this level and it fails to close above 6.28%, we expect the downward movement to continue toward the 5.81% region. Investors without existing positions or those looking for new opportunities may consider entering positions if the price approaches the 6.28% level.

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