Halving Cycle and 2025 Bitcoin Price 

In November 2022, Pantera Capital published an analysis mapping Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies. The analysis showed that returns decline in each four-year period. Considering the typical time between market bottoms and post-halving rallies, the firm predicted that BTC would reach $117,482 on August 11, 2025. According to Coin Metrics data, Bitcoin closed above $119,000 on that date. 

Bitbo data shows that when Pantera made its prediction, Bitcoin was trading below $16,000. Since then, BTC’s price has risen more than 660%, approaching the $120,000 mark. This rally once again confirmed the predictive power of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. 

Will Institutional Adoption Change the Cycles? 

However, some analysts argue that institutional adoption will alter this classic cycle. Since January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the fastest-growing ETFs in history. According to Bitbo, ETFs currently hold 7.1% of the total supply, or approximately 1.491 million BTC. In addition, public and private companies hold another 1.36 million BTC. 

Author and investor Jason Williams cited the rise in Bitcoin treasury-holding companies as evidence that “the four-year cycle is over.” Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard stated that halvings no longer impact trading volume. According to Rochard, 95% of BTC’s supply has already been mined, and market liquidity now comes mainly from OG investors, spot retail demand, ETPs, and corporate treasuries. 

Finally, Pantera Capital revealed in its blockchain newsletter that it has invested more than $300 million to date in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that hold large crypto reserves. The firm stated that DATs increase the number of tokens per share by generating yield, offering higher return potential than direct token holding or ETFs. 

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The so-called “August curse” in the Bitcoin market has historically been associated with price drops. Kiyosaki stated that if such a decline occurs, he plans to double his position. “If BTC crashes, I’ll buy more,” said the investor, drawing attention with his bold strategy. 

Macroeconomic risks are seen as the main cause of this potential pullback in August. According to Kiyosaki, the problem doesn’t lie with Bitcoin, but within the U.S. financial system. The country’s debt, which has surpassed $37 trillion, forms the root of this fragility.

BITCOIN CURSE: Will the “Bitcoin A
August Curse” crash Bitcoin’s price to below $90k?

I hope so.

I enjoyed an exciting educational summer attending “The Collective” and “Limitless Financial Education Event.” Learning about what lies ahead with speakers such as Larry…

— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) August 4, 2025

Why August Matters for Bitcoin 

Historically, August has been a tough month for Bitcoin. According to CryptoRank data, the average return in August is negative. For example, Bitcoin dropped by 14% in 2022 and 11.2% in 2023. Similar losses were observed in earlier years as well. This trend makes investors approach August with caution. 

However, not every August ends in losses. In halving years like 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains in August. So, while the month is statistically risky, it’s not always bearish. 

The crypto market began this August on a sluggish note. Weak U.S. job data released on August 1 triggered sharp selloffs. Bitcoin dropped below $113,000, and roughly $726 million worth of positions were liquidated. 

“Will the ‘Bitcoin August Curse’ crash Bitcoin’s price below $90,000? I hope so.” – Robert Kiyosaki 

Kiyosaki’s Strategy and Message to Investors 

Robert Kiyosaki views this phase as an opportunity. He plans to increase his Bitcoin holdings if a pullback occurs in August. This strategy could also offer a buying window for other investors. His “if BTC crashes, I’ll buy” mindset reflects the sentiment of many large-scale players in the market. 

According to Kiyosaki, Bitcoin’s long-term value remains strong. The real issue lies in America’s financial structure. Therefore, instead of focusing on short-term price movements, investors should keep an eye on the bigger picture. 

While it’s uncertain how Bitcoin will perform this August, historical trends and strategies of influential investors suggest that this month is one to watch closely. 

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