Bitcoin Is Increasingly Trading Like a Macro Asset

Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a purely crypto-native asset. Increasingly, it trades like a macroeconomic instrument.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price action has reflected macro developments far more than crypto-specific catalysts. Expectations around interest rates, the strength of the US dollar, and overall liquidity conditions have become the dominant forces shaping direction.

Tariffs sit at the center of this equation. They can increase import costs, creating inflationary pressure. That, in turn, complicates the outlook for central bank policy.

When markets begin to price in the possibility of higher rates for longer, a chain reaction tends to follow. The dollar strengthens first. Liquidity tightens globally. Risk assets begin to lose momentum. Bitcoin, despite its independent structure, does not remain immune.

Trump’s statement did not directly trigger this sequence. But it reactivated the possibility in investors’ minds. That alone was enough to shift positioning.

The Real Reason Behind Bitcoin’s Decline

In simple terms, the reason behind Bitcoin’s decline can be traced back to renewed tariff expectations and their potential macroeconomic consequences.

Rising tariff risks increase the likelihood of persistent inflation. This makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly. A stronger dollar follows. As a result, investors rotate away from risk-sensitive assets, placing pressure on Bitcoin.

US Trade Deficit Data Adds Context, But Questions Remain

There is also real data behind the broader trade narrative. In January, the US trade deficit fell sharply to approximately $29.4 billion, one of the lowest levels since 2009.

Lower imports and stronger exports contributed to the shift. Tariff threats themselves may have already begun influencing supply chains and corporate behavior.

However, economists caution that the headline improvement does not necessarily reflect a fully structural change. Certain components, including non-monetary gold flows, may have exaggerated the decline. Beneath the surface, the underlying trend may be less stable than the headline suggests.

Markets recognized this distinction quickly. The focus shifted away from the number itself and toward whether tariff policies would continue shaping financial conditions.

Strong Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Continue to Pressure Bitcoin

Despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound toward the $67,000 level, the broader trend remains fragile. The crypto market is currently on track for its fifth consecutive weekly decline.

If confirmed, it would mark the longest losing streak since the nine-week drawdown recorded between March and May 2022.

Geopolitical risks continue to reinforce dollar strength. Rising military tensions in the Middle East have pushed both the US dollar and oil prices higher.

A stronger dollar historically creates headwinds for Bitcoin, given their inverse relationship. In this environment, Bitcoin’s short-term direction is increasingly tied to global macroeconomic forces rather than internal crypto developments.

When liquidity expands, Bitcoin responds quickly to the upside. When conditions tighten, it retreats just as fast.,

Fed Minutes Released: Is a Rate Cut on the Horizon?

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

Markets are now watching one critical question: whether tariff rhetoric evolves into sustained financial tightening, or fades into political noise. If tariffs ultimately reinforce expectations of a stronger dollar and prolonged high interest rates, Bitcoin’s upside may remain constrained.

If the narrative loses momentum and financial conditions begin to ease, Bitcoin could regain strength through renewed liquidity flows.

What is clear is that Bitcoin’s trajectory is no longer shaped solely by crypto-specific events. Its direction is now intertwined with global economic policy, monetary expectations, and macro-level capital flows.

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Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim the $70,000 barrier has brought back a familiar question across markets: could the downturn deepen? On Monday, a brief attempt to recover this key level quickly faded under selling pressure, sending price down to $67,000. As of Wednesday morning, Bitcoin is trying to stabilize near $68,000, but slipping below short-term supports has made the technical outlook increasingly uncertain.

Three Micro Factors Increasing Downside Risk

Three short-term drivers are currently amplifying downside pressure on Bitcoin. While none of them is decisive on its own, together they suggest the near-term risk balance is tilting lower.

First, the failure to secure sustained closes above $69,400 highlights weak buyer conviction, turning each rebound into a potential selling opportunity.

Second, new capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed noticeably. This points to fading institutional appetite and limits the price’s underlying support.

Third is a liquidity gap in derivatives markets. Concentrated stop orders between $66,000 and $64,000 increase the risk of cascading sell-offs if that zone breaks.

Key Levels and Market Reaction

The loss of the $68,000–$70,000 range — which looked almost fortress-like in early February — represents more than just a numerical shift. It marks a psychological reset for the market. Analysts broadly agree that every day spent below this zone dampens buying interest and turns existing positions into exit opportunities.

While major cryptocurrencies lag, smaller tokens have managed brief rallies. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB are down roughly 3%, while Zcash (ZEC) and Cosmos (ATOM) posted gains approaching 20%.

That divergence may not last. Alex Kuptsikevich, speaking on behalf of FxPro, warned:

“The decline in the largest cryptocurrencies is an ominous sign for smaller ones, as it could soon drag them down at an accelerated pace.”

On-Chain Data and Market Stress

According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the market has entered a full-scale “stress” phase. Major capitulation losses that typically mark cycle bottoms have not yet materialized, suggesting the unwinding process may still be incomplete.

Concerns around quantum computing risks and network “spam” debates are also weighing on sentiment. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, criticized the BIP-110 proposal, arguing that rule changes could introduce new reputational risks.

Institutional Flows and ETF Moves

Institutional investors are adjusting exposure. Harvard University’s endowment reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by more than 20% in the fourth quarter. Although it still maintains one of its largest positions, the move has drawn market attention.

Technical Outlook and Possible Scenarios

Based on our own analysis, Bitcoin’s critical support currently sits near $66,600. While price appears to have bounced from this level, a reaction alone is not enough. A move above $69,400 is needed for confirmation.

Until that level is reclaimed, the current move remains a short-term rebound rather than a strong buying signal.

If $69,400 is cleared, the next major resistance comes in near $72,000. This zone marks recent local bottoms and has capped price action for roughly 15 days. Reclaiming it could ease selling pressure and support short-term momentum.

Bitcoin Price (BTC): $67,846 — volatility near 12%.

As Bitcoin continues searching for direction, every weak rebound keeps one question alive across the market: is there still another dip ahead?

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Three main factors stand behind Bitcoin’s pullback: heavy selling in tech stocks, AI-driven pressure on software valuations, and technical stop orders activated after price ranges tightened. Together, this combination accelerated short-term direction-seeking across markets.

Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Falling?

During intraday trading, the crypto market closely tracked weakness in software equities. Alongside Bitcoin, Ether and Solana also posted similar declines. As risk appetite faded, investors once again took a more cautious stance toward high-multiple growth stocks.

One of the clearest indicators of this shift was the software-focused iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). The ETF closed the session down roughly 3%, bringing its year-to-date losses to 21%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite fell about 2%.

As macro strategist Jim Bianco pointed out, cryptocurrencies can essentially be viewed as a form of “programmable money,” or another type of software. The message was clear: in the eyes of the market, Bitcoin and the software sector now sit in the same risk basket.

Why Did Gold and Silver Decline?

Precious metals traded in tight ranges for most of the day. But by the afternoon, that compression broke.

Silver reversed sharply from modest intraday gains, falling more than 10%. Gold prices also slipped roughly 3%. After days of trading between $5,000 and $5,100, gold accelerated lower as support levels gave way. In silver, the sideways structure around the $80–$85 zone unraveled.

So what was the real trigger behind this sharp move? It wasn’t a single headline. Weekly volatility compression activated algorithmic trades and stop orders simultaneously. The result: synchronized risk-off selling across both crypto and metals.

Macro Uncertainty Returns

Expectations that AI agents could rapidly transform software production are weighing on sector valuations — and that stress is spilling over into crypto. At the same time, technical breakdowns in precious metals suggest investors are shifting toward more defensive positioning in the short term.

Bitcoin is currently trying to stabilize around $65,000. But without a clear recovery in technology stocks, establishing a durable base in crypto looks difficult. For gold and silver, near-term direction now depends on whether recently broken support levels can be reclaimed.

For now, the charts are doing the talking. Markets are searching for a new balance between macro uncertainty and risk aversion.

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Bitcoin Liquidity Crisis and Flight from Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 37.5% since its October peak, falling to $78,733. Liquidity shortages and risk-off behavior have significantly reduced trading volumes.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said, “Spot demand is drying up. This correction has been largely driven by the October 10th liquidation event.”

For instance, Bitcoin spot volumes on Binance fell from $200 billion in October to roughly $104 billion today. By comparison, Gate.io recorded $53 billion, and Bybit $47 billion. According to CryptoQuant, this contraction has brought the market back to levels among the lowest observed since 2024, highlighting weaker investor demand.

Market Liquidity Under Pressure

The drop in volumes is not only due to waning investor interest. Analysts note that stablecoin outflows and roughly $10 billion in stablecoin market cap losses have also put pressure on liquidity.

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, stated that Bitcoin’s biggest short-term risk over the coming months is macro-driven:

“Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance as Fed chair could mean fewer or slower rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and higher real yields, all of which pressure risk assets, including crypto.”

He also noted that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement remains intact. On the other hand, strong ETF inflows, clearer pro-crypto legislation, or soft economic data prompting the Fed toward easier policy could spark a meaningful rally.

“It may feel like a bitter medicine, but the recent move is ultimately healthy, helping clear leverage, reduce speculation, and make investors reconsider valuations.”

Bitcoin Price Bottom Is Not Close Yet

Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, highlighted two conditions for a Bitcoin price bottom:

1. Short-term holders (STH) need to be underwater, which is currently the case.

2. Long-term holders (LTH) need to start carrying losses, which has not happened yet.

Wedson explained that bear markets only end when the STH realized price falls below the LTH realized price, while bull markets begin when it crosses back above.

Currently, STH realized price remains above LTH. However, a drop below $74,000 could push BTC into bear market territory, signaling a period where investors need to be especially cautious.

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Markets are not treating this release as a routine data point. Instead, it is being viewed as an early stress test for first-quarter assumptions. In recent weeks, the growing belief that rate cuts could be delayed has pushed investors into a cautious wait-and-see mode, particularly across risk-sensitive assets.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not completely lost upside momentum. Still, both assets appear to be waiting for a clear macro signal before committing to a decisive move.

Inflation Expectations Hold Firm, Pressure Builds on the Fed

Consensus expectations suggest that both headline and core U.S. CPI will remain at 2.7% year over year. That level signals little improvement compared to the previous month and keeps inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

While inflation has been cooling gradually, the pace has not been convincing enough to justify an imminent policy shift. Falling energy prices have offered limited relief to core inflation, complicating the outlook. Although the Fed’s preferred gauge — core PCE — has yet to be released, CPI continues to serve as a critical early signal for markets.

Adding another layer of uncertainty, renewed debate over Federal Reserve independence has surfaced following legal scrutiny involving Chair Jerome Powell. While no immediate policy impact is expected, the issue introduces additional risk sensitivity into already fragile market sentiment.

Bitcoin Remains Compressed Below Resistance

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase just below the 95,000 dollar zone after its recent rally. This area is not merely a technical ceiling — it also represents a zone highly sensitive to inflation surprises.

The failure to reclaim the 92,000 dollar level on a sustained basis suggests that upside momentum remains controlled. Still, despite trading below resistance for several days, Bitcoin has yet to show clear signs of structural weakness.

On the downside, the 88,000 dollar level stands out as a key support. A break below that zone could open the door to 86,000 dollars and potentially the stronger demand area near 80,000. On the upside, a decisive move above 95,000 could shift focus back toward the psychologically significant 100,000 level.

Current price structure points to tightening conditions, indicating that a directional move may be approaching. The CPI data could act as the catalyst that resolves this compression.

Ethereum Tests the 3,200 Dollar Threshold

Ethereum’s setup appears more fragile, though not outright bearish. ETH has been trading within a narrow range between 2,600 and 3,350 dollars for nearly two months, reflecting broader market indecision.

The recent bounce from the 3,060 support level suggests short-term buyers remain active. However, this was the second test of that zone, raising concerns about weakening support. Failure to clear the 3,180 resistance could trigger a deeper pullback, with 2,850 dollars emerging as the next area of interest.

Conversely, sustained acceptance above 3,200 dollars could quickly improve sentiment. Such a move would likely put the 3,300 region back into play, followed by the major resistance area near 3,800 if broader risk appetite improves. A CPI reading that supports easing expectations could help unlock that upside scenario.

Is CPI the Only Catalyst Tomorrow?

The day’s agenda extends beyond CPI. Markets will also digest the U.S. Producer Price Index, the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, and developments surrounding the completion of the Fed’s Treasury purchase operations. Additionally, attention remains on a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to tariff policies.

This crowded macro calendar makes it difficult for markets to focus on a single headline. Still, inflation remains the central variable. An upside surprise in CPI could push rate-cut expectations further out, increasing short-term selling pressure across crypto markets.

A softer print, on the other hand, may offer temporary relief — though whether that relief proves durable is far from certain. At this stage, markets are no longer willing to price in optimism based on a single favorable data point.

As a result, the ongoing compression in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not merely technical. It reflects the pricing of uncertainty itself. Tomorrow’s data may break the stalemate, but any lasting trend will ultimately depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to the evolving inflation picture.

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Open Interest Hits Record High on Deribit

This week’s put/call ratio for Bitcoin options stands at 1.03, showing a near balance between bullish and bearish bets. According to Coinglass, the max pain point—where most options expire worthless—is around $114,000. Open interest remains heavily concentrated between $120,000 and $140,000, while short-term sellers have placed over $2 billion in positions near $100,000.

Across all exchanges, total BTC options open interest has surged to a record $63 billion, with Deribit alone accounting for $50 billion. “The derivatives structure appears to be shifting from high leverage toward hedging,” noted Greeks Live, adding that many investors are frustrated by Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and equities.

The recent AWS outage also briefly disrupted Coinbase trading, making it harder for institutions to execute large orders during this critical expiry period.

Ethereum Options Add to Expiry Pressure

Alongside Bitcoin, around 193,000 Ethereum options contracts, valued at roughly $749 million, are also expiring today. The max pain level for ETH options sits near $3,950, with a put/call ratio of 0.78, suggesting a slightly bullish bias. Total Ethereum open interest now exceeds $15 billion, bringing the combined crypto options expiry value to nearly $5.8 billion.

Spot Market Outlook: Limited Reaction Expected

Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap has risen 1.8% in the past 24 hours to $3.8 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly climbed above $111,000 late Thursday before pulling back slightly on Friday morning, while Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB posted solid gains.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate between $110,000 and $114,000 following today’s expiry as traders await macroeconomic cues and liquidity shifts to define the next major move.

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$20 Billion in Liquidations Shake the Crypto Market

Friday’s massive sell-off led to over $20 billion in leveraged liquidations across centralized exchanges (CEXs) and hundreds of millions in DeFi protocols. Data from CoinGlass highlights how quickly the crash unfolded, forcing many traders out of their positions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $111,825, Ether (ETH) at $3,829, and Solana (SOL) near $182.22. Experts note that the market may remain weak until CME Bitcoin and stock futures reopen on Sunday evening (U.S. time), which will likely dictate BTC’s next direction.

The steep decline in open interest also reflects a lack of trader confidence, as investors hesitate to re-enter a volatile market. The futures market opening will be a critical indicator of how TradFi (traditional finance) is positioning for the upcoming week.

Trump’s Tariff Decision Sparks Panic

Trump’s tweet announcing the 100% import tariff on China hit social media just two hours before U.S. markets closed on Friday, triggering a sharp reaction. Both stock and crypto markets saw a wave of panic selling, with low weekend liquidity amplifying price declines across CeFi platforms.

According to Ray Salmond, Head of Markets at Cointelegraph, Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable range:

“Based on Hyblock Capital’s liquidation heatmaps, there’s a liquidity pocket between $120,000 and $113,000. Long positions in that area are exposed and easily exploited.”

This range represents short-term support levels for Bitcoin, while technical indicators suggest that $110,000 acts as a key psychological zone.

When Could the Market Recover?

For Bitcoin to regain momentum, open interest must stabilize and investor confidence must return. The tone of Sunday’s CME futures opening will offer crucial insights into market sentiment heading into the week.

Possible short-term scenarios include:

• 1) A strong CME opening could trigger a relief rally.

• 2) A weak opening might lead to another test below $110,000.

• 3) A neutral opening may keep BTC trading sideways for days.

Meanwhile, analyst EndGame Macro pointed out that the current sell-off is deeply connected to broader macroeconomic stress and global liquidity tightening.

While traders await signals from traditional markets, crypto volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming days. Investors are closely watching U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve comments for clues on the next move.

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$4.5 Billion Options Expiry Could Shake the Market 

Today, $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire. On Deribit, $3.52 billion in 30,000 BTC options will mature. The put-call ratio stands at 1.23, signaling that traders have increased bearish bets after the recent rally. 

Over the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio dropped to 0.77. Call volume exceeded 22,300 compared to 17,250 puts, showing cautious sentiment among investors ahead of expiry. 

Max Pain Price for Bitcoin Stands at $114,000 

Deribit data shows Bitcoin’s maximum pain price at $114,000. Traders may attempt to pull BTC toward this level, while heavy put options remain concentrated between $100,000 and $108,000. 

On the Ethereum side, more than 177,000 contracts worth $0.8 billion will expire. The put-call ratio is at 1, with a max pain price of $4,500, creating downward pressure on ETH as well. 

• BTC max pain: $114,000 
• BTC key support: $115,200 
• BTC downside target: $105,500 
• ETH max pain: $4,500 

Glassnode: Downside Risk to $105,500 Intensifies 

Glassnode data reveals that 95% of BTC holders are currently in profit, raising the risk of profit-taking. Open interest in Bitcoin options has surged to a record 500,000 BTC. 

The market is also entering a “triple witching” phase, as weekly, monthly, and quarterly expiries overlap, concentrating flows and liquidity. Unless bulls defend $115,200, Bitcoin could decline toward $105,500. 

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Investors tracked the development in real-time. Meanwhile, the exchange initiated the process of closing existing positions. The exact timeline for halting trades was determined. The announcement caused notable market volatility. 

What is LEVER Token and Why Did It Rise? 

LEVER is a popular cryptocurrency and the native token of the LeverFi platform. The platform operates in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, offering leveraged trading services. LEVER serves as the governance token of the network and is also used across various platform services, giving it broad utility. 

Binance’s decision to delist LEVER/USDT futures was unexpected, yet it positively impacted the token price. Why? Such news usually boosts trading volume. The sudden price surge was primarily due to short position liquidations. Investors with open short positions panicked, triggering rapid liquidations, which significantly increased the buying pressure on the token. This drove the price sharply upward. 

Additionally, the news was perceived positively in the spot market. Investors were motivated to hold the token long-term, further strengthening its overall value. Part of the price increase came from this renewed investor interest. Ultimately, Binance’s decision created a unique opportunity in the market. 

Binance’s Decision and Market Implications 

Binance regularly reviews its futures pairs, occasionally delisting low-liquidity contracts. The main reason is to prevent market manipulation and protect investors. LEVER/USDT was delisted for a similar reason. The announcement caused a minor market shock, with short positions liquidated rapidly, pushing the price to a peak in a short period. 

However, whether this surge continues remains uncertain. Experts advise caution regarding short-term gains. Investors should approach the situation carefully and consider market volatility before making decisions. 

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Key Support Zone Under Pressure

Recent data shows that the price of TIA has dropped into the $1.38 to $1.31 support range. This area is highly significant from a technical perspective. A breakdown below this level could lead to new lows for TIA, especially if selling pressure intensifies and trading volumes remain weak. Market watchers would do well to keep a close eye on this level in the days ahead.

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Upside Potential If Resistance Breaks

Not all hope is lost, however. Should the descending trendline break to the upside, TIA could target its next resistance between $1.68 and $1.62. A successful move beyond this range may re-energize bullish sentiment and push the price higher. For short-term traders, this breakout could offer a fresh opportunity.

What happens next for Celestia within this narrowing range will likely determine the near-term trajectory. While indicators remain mixed, this zone could offer critical trading opportunities for both bulls and bears.

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