Bitcoin now trades in a range between $65,000 and $72,000. It may look like an ordinary consolidation zone, but behind the scenes, something else is happening. Whales, long-term holders, and institutional players are active here. No sudden spikes, no dramatic crashes. But accumulation is taking place—slow, patient, often at levels typical for market bottoms.

In periods like this, market reflexes tend to be predictable. Risk aversion kicks in. Capital flows away from more volatile assets toward those seen as safer. In crypto, that “safe haven” is often Bitcoin.

Binance Data Shows Clear Rotation

Binance, one of the exchanges with the largest volumes, clearly reflects this rotation. Trading volumes split between BTC, ETH, and other altcoins show Bitcoin reclaiming dominance.

According to CryptoQuant, since February 7, Bitcoin has regained the lead with a 36.8% share of Binance’s total volume. Altcoins, which held a massive 59.2% dominance in November, have shrunk to just 33.6% by February 13—roughly a 50% drop in activity in just a few months. Historical corrections—August 2024, April 2025, and the late 2022 bear market—show similar patterns: when stress rises, capital naturally moves toward “digital gold.”

The sharp decline in altcoin volumes is more than numbers; it signals a clear drop in risk appetite.

History Repeats

Patterns like this have appeared before: August 2024, April 2025, and late 2022. Each time, altcoin activity contracts, and capital flows toward Bitcoin. A defensive reflex. When uncertainty rises, investors seek deeper, more liquid, less fragile assets. Bitcoin has long played this role.

Once BTC surpassed $60,000 again, the trend accelerated. Volume distribution quietly shifted. Speculative altcoin momentum faltered, while Bitcoin remained stable. This contrast became a key factor determining capital allocation.

Altcoins Still Under Pressure

The altcoin market has not fully recovered since 2024. Sporadic rallies happen, but overall momentum is weak. The euphoric peaks of 2021 remain far away for many projects.

Liquidity is limited, speculative interest is low, and investors are more selective. Many altcoins still trade well below historical highs, shaping a cautious market sentiment.

CryptoQuant analysis confirms this picture: Bitcoin’s current consolidation acts more as a strategic accumulation zone than speculative playground. Large players typically act in such phases—not the short-term, rapid-profit crowd, but patient capital.

This signals a shift in market character: noise decreases, but movement continues.

Bitcoin’s Role Strengthens Again

It’s not new that Bitcoin’s volume share rises in times of market stress. But this rotation is sharper and faster than usual. A roughly 50% drop in altcoin activity highlights how investors reprioritize.

Bitcoin remains the market’s center. Liquidity pools here, risk-averse flows anchor here, and it continues to be the reference point. Altcoins are not entirely sidelined, but for now, most capital prefers Bitcoin.

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Analysts Highlight Coordinated Market Movement

The United States conducted a 30-minute strike on Venezuela early Saturday morning. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, does not expect a widespread correction for Bitcoin. Poppe noted that the attack was not perceived as a surprise by the market, resulting in no direct negative impact. He stated, “The probability of more negativity is relatively slim.” The analyst believes the passage of time has already eased market pressure.

According to CoinGlass data, $60.04 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. Notably, $55.01 million of these were short positions. While past tensions involving Iran-Israel or Russia-Ukraine caused temporary dips, the market now recovers quickly when feared escalations do not materialize.

Shifting Investor Behavior in Geopolitical Noise

The leading cryptocurrency is charting a different path compared to previous Eastern European or Middle Eastern conflicts. Strategist Tyler Hill argued that markets typically crash due to uncertainty, but the current situation lacks that “unknown” factor. This stability could even turn into a sign of strength, bringing green candles to the charts. Investors no longer view geopolitical crises as a reason to flee. Instead, they see these events as a test of the asset’s endurance.

Will Bitcoin Sustain Its Position Above $90,000?

Current data shows Bitcoin trading steadily around the $91,000 level. Specifically, the recent liquidations in leveraged trades helped clean the market. This paved the way for a much healthier price floor. Experts like Shagun Makin emphasize the technical importance of holding the $90,000 band. According to analysts, staying firm despite “geopolitical noise” is a significant bullish signal.

Market Status Summary

• The market treated the military strike as a “priced-in” event and avoided panic selling.

• Bitcoin’s stability above $90,000 is increasing institutional trust in the asset.

• Short-term liquidations provided the necessary cleanup for a potential upward move.

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Long-term holders are less aggressive. The profit-taking rate of investors holding ETH for more than 155 days remains around December 2024 levels. This is 39% lower compared to the highest daily profit-taking average seen last month when ETH was at $3,500. 

ETH price currently trades 12.7% below its November 2021 peak of $4,828. According to CoinGlass, if the price reaches $4,700, around $2.23 billion worth of positions could be liquidated. 

Increasing Institutional Demand Amid Price Resistance 

ETH has recently crossed the $4,300 level multiple times but failed to hold above it. Meanwhile, institutional investors are increasing their Ether holdings. Companies with crypto treasuries now hold a total of 3.04 million ETH, equivalent to about $13 billion. 

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes resumed Ethereum buying after selling $10.5 million last week. Hayes’ move is seen as a confidence signal for breaking the critical resistance. 

Santiment analysts note that large institutional buys becoming public could trigger FOMO but may also lead to short-term price pauses or declines. The market remains cautious after failed rallies earlier this year. 

Breaking above the $4,300 resistance zone could create new momentum in the market, opening fresh opportunities for both short- and long-term investors. 

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Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, offered a similar perspective. Hougan stated that it is still too early to declare the cycle over without positive returns by 2026. However, he believes the cycle will eventually end in the long term. Historically, BTC price peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021 after halving events. Analysts expect a similar scenario in 2025. 

Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, suggested the four-year cycles might have ended. Rochard pointed out that 95% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been mined. He also noted that the impact of halvings on trading volume has diminished. Demand now mainly comes from retail investors, wealth management platforms adding ETPs, and corporate treasuries. 

Macroeconomics and Institutional Capital Impact 

Martin Burgherr, Head of Client Coverage at Sygnum Bank, said the halving cycle remains an important reference. However, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become equally influential on the market. Burgherr emphasized that the four-year framework is no longer the sole determinant. 

In contrast, crypto analyst CRYPTOBIRB rejected claims that the four-year cycle has ended. He stated that ETFs increase market correlation, thus reinforcing this cycle. He also reminded that halving cycles are mathematically programmed and unchangeable. 

Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, similarly affirmed that the cycles still hold validity. Rocca said that despite institutional presence, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature continues. The debate is expected to become clearer with the anticipated price movements in 2025. 

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Ethereum Exchange Reserves and Institutional Demand 

According to CryptoQuant data, strategic Ethereum reserves exceeded 2.7 million ETH and $10 billion at the end of July. In the first week of August, this figure rose to 3 million ETH. Institutional purchases kept ETH strong despite selling pressure. Investors interpreted the decrease in exchange reserves during ETH’s price rise as a sign of long-term confidence. This trend continues to support Ethereum’s market performance. 

Chainlink (LINK) and Pi Network (PI) Exchange Reserves Activity 

Chainlink’s exchange reserves have dropped by 16% since the beginning of the year to 146.2 million LINK. However, LINK price increased by 15%, rising from $15.5 to over $19. Santiment data revealed renewed accumulation of large LINK amounts in on-chain wallets. At the beginning of August, wallets holding between $100K and $1M LINK increased by 4.2%. Additionally, Chainlink Reserve, an application converting protocol revenues into LINK purchases, was launched in August, strengthening long-term accumulation trends. 

Pi Network’s exchange reserves exceeded 405 million PI at the end of July but slightly dropped to 403 million PI in early August. This decline paralleled a 10% price drop to $0.366. Investors began to see these price levels as buying opportunities. This development, seen as a sign of renewed accumulation in Pi Network, warrants close monitoring of reserves. Meanwhile, while exchange supply decreases, prices show signs of recovery. 

Conclusion 

In the first week of August, Ethereum, Chainlink, and Pi Network experienced notable changes in exchange reserves. Institutional demand in Ethereum and long-term accumulation in Chainlink and Pi Network are dominant factors. These dynamics suggest the market is poised for a new upward momentum. 

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Metaplanet’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, announced the purchase on social media. The firm acquired 2,205 Bitcoins at an average price of $108,237 each. This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 15,555 BTC. 

イチゴーゴーゴーゴー！
15,555 BTC到達。
積み上げは止まらない。 pic.twitter.com/T7CjtsvNkI

— Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) July 7, 2025

According to Bitcointreasuries.net, which tracks BTC investments in detail, Metaplanet has climbed the ranks among major investors. Leading the list is MicroStrategy with 597,325 BTC, significantly ahead under the leadership of CEO Michael Saylor. 

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy and Market Impact 

Metaplanet continues to pursue a long-term investment strategy by accumulating BTC. Their latest large purchase draws attention across the global crypto market. Additionally, the race among companies to acquire Bitcoin is accelerating, with the Japanese giant taking assertive steps. 

The increase in Metaplanet’s BTC portfolio is seen as a sign of growing investor interest in cryptocurrencies. The firm’s Bitcoin holdings significantly impact market liquidity and intensify competition within the sector. 

Metaplanet’s Position in the World’s Largest Bitcoin Holders List 

Metaplanet ranks 5th among the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin investors. MicroStrategy remains the undisputed leader with 597,325 BTC, making it a major market player. 

Following Metaplanet are smaller companies and investors. The fact that Metaplanet has amassed such a large Bitcoin reserve shows growing institutional adoption of crypto. This trend sends important signals about the future of the sector. 

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Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of Alphractal, highlighted three key metrics in a post on the X platform: the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator, the Long-Term Stablecoin Ratio Channel, and the Short-Term Stablecoin Ratio Channel. None of these indicators are currently signaling overbought conditions, providing a favorable market outlook for investors. 

What Do Stablecoin Metrics Mean for Bitcoin? 

Stablecoin data is becoming increasingly popular for measuring market movements. The SSR Oscillator evaluates Bitcoin’s market cap relative to stablecoin liquidity. This indicator uses the 200-day moving average and standard deviation to signal when Bitcoin is undervalued or when the market is overheated. According to Alphractal, the SSR Oscillator has yet to issue a sell signal. 

3 Stablecoin Metrics That Indicate: The Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over!
In the cryptocurrency universe, finding reliable signals is like striking gold. At Alphractal, we’ve developed powerful oscillators that correlate Bitcoin with stablecoins, generating alpha signals that few in… pic.twitter.com/9kRPjE2V5H

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) June 29, 2025

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel offers two perspectives: the long-term view helps investors assess whether Bitcoin is fairly valued, supporting strategic decision-making. Meanwhile, the short-term view offers momentum-based signals through oscillation frequency, benefiting traders who operate on daily or weekly timeframes. 

Wedson’s charts show multiple “buy” signals since the start of 2025, reinforcing investor optimism. Ethereum’s 37.04% increase over the same period further supports this positive outlook. 

Regulatory Risks and the $2 Trillion Stablecoin Market 

Despite the strong performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum, certain risks remain. Notably, regulations from major economies like the U.S. and the European Union targeting the stablecoin market could impact the broader crypto space. 

However, low interest rates continue to support a favorable investment environment. The U.S. Treasury projects that the stablecoin market could soon reach a valuation of $2 trillion—highlighting its vast potential. 

Both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have shown strength in Q2 2025. As stablecoin metrics continue to emit bullish signals, investor attention is increasingly turning toward this sector. 

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According to Glassnode data, this rise shows LTHs losing confidence and liquidating their coins. Ethereum Liveliness is calculated as the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days accumulated. When this ratio increases, distribution rises, and the accumulation phase ends. 

CMF Remains in Negative Territory 

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is currently at -0.08. A negative CMF signals reduced capital inflow to ETH and declining buying interest. This decline suggests most Ethereum investors prefer to stay on the sidelines due to market stagnation. Falling buying interest combined with selling pressure increases downward price pressure on ETH. 

New Lows Possible for Ethereum Price 

ETH is currently trading around $2,429. If LTH selling continues, the price could drop to $2,185 and then to $2,027. These levels are short-term support zones. According to FXStreet data, 72,000 ETH entered exchanges on June 20, indicating LTHs are preparing to sell and increasing market selling pressure. TradingView data shows Ethereum is the second most traded cryptocurrency with about 552K active addresses, reflecting direct trading activity only. 

Additionally, the daily (14-period) RSI for Ethereum was about 46.5 on June 21, 2025, a neutral zone around 50, indicating neither oversold (<30) nor overbought (>70) conditions. 

However, a potential demand rebound could reverse this downtrend. With renewed investor interest, ETH price could rise up to $2,745. For this scenario, market momentum must strengthen. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have been increasing Bitcoin’s dominance while causing capital outflows from altcoins. Moreover, the presence of more than 17 million altcoins in the market leads to excessive capital dispersion, hindering overall growth. Here are the top three reasons why the altcoin season is being delayed. 

Increased Altcoin Selling Pressure and Lack of Confidence 

CryptoQuant’s “1-Year Cumulative Bid/Ask Volume Delta” shows a continued net sell pressure of $36 billion in altcoins. This negative delta reflects a risk-off sentiment, with investors increasingly offloading their altcoin holdings. Investors seeking safer options have lost interest in altcoins in the short term. For a recovery, the buy volume must surpass the sell volume — a condition that has not yet been met. Analysts emphasize that this metric must turn positive for an altcoin season to begin. 

Geopolitical Instability and Bitcoin Dominance 

Recent global conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran clash, have negatively impacted the altcoin market. In such crises, investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven. While Bitcoin shows price volatility, altcoins suffer deeper losses. As a result, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has surpassed 64% and continues its upward trend with six consecutive green weekly candles. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks could persist for weeks or even months, keeping risk-averse sentiment high toward altcoins. This makes a near-term altcoin season unlikely. 

Record Increase in Altcoin Numbers and Market Dilution 

According to CoinMarketCap, the number of altcoin projects exceeded 17.34 million as of June 2025 — a staggering 850x increase compared to the end of 2021. However, this surge has caused extreme market fragmentation. Capital is spread too thin across countless small tokens, limiting overall market growth. The total altcoin market cap stands at $1.13 trillion, still 30% below its 2021 peak. As a result, most small projects struggle to succeed. Nonetheless, major projects like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP continue to attract investor attention. Even if an altcoin season begins, only strong, select projects are likely to benefit. 

Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass the $112K Threshold – Here’s Why 

Due to high sell pressure, growing Bitcoin dominance fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, and excessive capital dilution across the altcoin space, it may take longer for altcoins to recover. Until market conditions and investor sentiment improve, expecting a full-fledged altcoin season might be unrealistic. Investors would be wise to focus on fundamentally strong major projects. 

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Institutional interest in U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs gained renewed momentum on Wednesday, with a total net inflow of $390.4 million — nearly double the previous day’s amount. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way with a single-day inflow of $280 million, further cementing its dominance. 

Robust Institutional Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs 

Fidelity’s FBTC product also drew attention with over $100 million in inflows, signaling growing investor confidence and a stabilizing market. During this period, BlackRock added 2,861 new Bitcoins to its portfolio, bringing its total BTC holdings to 680,336. 

Since the beginning of 2025, total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $11.25 billion, underlining the continuing rise in institutional demand. Notably, Bitcoin ETF products have posted positive net inflows for eight consecutive trading days. 

Bitcoin and Gold Strengthen Amid Geopolitical Tensions 

Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have heightened risk perception in global markets. With potential interventions from the U.S. and the U.K., investors have turned to safe-haven assets. This climate has seen an uptick in both BTC ETF inflows and gold prices. 

At the same time, BTC’s price held steady at the $104,000 level, maintaining its resilience. According to on-chain data, the STH/LTH Supply Ratio dropped to 15.7%, indicating reduced activity among short-term holders and continued confidence from long-term investors. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s decision to maintain interest rates following the recent FOMC meeting has also reinforced a “wait-and-see” sentiment in the markets. Despite geopolitical risks, crypto assets continue to attract solid institutional interest. 

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