Even though Bitcoin appears relatively strong in the spot market, movements in the derivatives market reflect deeper investor psychology. The options market often signals fear and expectations before price charts do.

A $40,000 put option gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to sell Bitcoin at $40,000.

For example:

• Suppose Bitcoin is trading at $66,000

• You buy a $40,000 put option

• If Bitcoin plunges to $30,000, you still have the right to sell at $40,000

• Market price: $30,000

• Your right: $40,000

• Difference: $10,000 advantage

Hedging Against Downside Risk

Put options act as insurance against price drops. The $40,000 put option shows that the market has not entirely ignored extreme downside scenarios. The concentration of approximately $490 million at this strike highlights growing demand for protection against deep tail risks. This doesn’t necessarily mean the market expects a crash, but uncertainty is clearly being priced in.

Bitcoin is currently around $66,000, making the $40,000 strike a “tail risk” hedge relative to the spot price. Investors are insuring against this possibility even if they don’t see it as the base scenario. This is typical behavior in transitional phases.

$7.3 Billion in Options Expiring

The focus is not just on a single strike. By the end of the month, roughly $7.3 billion in Bitcoin options will expire. This volume is a critical threshold for short-term market direction.

The $75,000 strike holds about $566 million and represents the “max pain” level—the price at which the most options expire worthless and sellers gain maximum advantage. While the spot remains below this level, option sellers retain their edge, but price dynamics can shift rapidly as expiration approaches.

Option markets are usually more sensitive around such thresholds, with liquidity increasing and volatility widening—sometimes faster than expected.

Bullish Potential Not Gone, But Caution Evident

Looking at overall option distribution: 63,547 call contracts vs. 45,914 put contracts. Bullish positioning remains dominant, but the demand for downside protection has clearly risen.

The put/call ratio of 0.72 shows that upward bets are still stronger, yet the concentration of low-strike put positions highlights an increased need for insurance against negative moves. This balanced behavior often appears in uncertain phases—neither full risk appetite nor panic dominates.

Options Data Reflect Changing Market Psychology

This positioning indicates that investors are not strictly one-sided. They prefer flexible, hedged approaches. The market hasn’t entered a decisive trend yet. Large investors tend to avoid aggressive directional bets during such periods, preferring to be prepared for both scenarios.

Currently, the structure shows that while upside potential remains on the table, downside risks are not ignored. The options market often speaks before the spot market in these transitional phases.

Market Approaching a Critical Threshold

With the big option expiry on February 27 approaching, BTC market volatility potential continues to rise. The concentration of large positions makes the price more sensitive and reactive.

Increasing protection at low strike prices signals that investors are taking risk management seriously. This does not mean the market is weak—it simply indicates a more cautious approach. The options market isn’t showing clear fear, but neither is it signaling full confidence.

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The post Bitcoin Massive Option Signal: $40,000 Level in Focus appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The Trump administration adopted a more flexible and regulatory approach toward crypto assets in the U.S. JPMorgan will work with third-party custodians like Coinbase to strengthen risk management for crypto-backed loans. 

CEO Jamie Dimon’s Stablecoin Emphasis 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon maintains a skeptical stance on Bitcoin. In a statement to investors in May, he highlighted risks such as leverage, misuse, and money laundering associated with Bitcoin. Dimon stated that the bank does not plan to offer custody services for crypto assets. 

He said, “We will allow you to buy crypto, but we won’t hold it,” linking this approach to his personal views. 

This statement reflects JPMorgan’s cautious yet strategic approach to crypto assets. While participating in stablecoin and other digital asset projects, the bank remains prudent in riskier areas. 

Using Crypto Assets as Collateral 

With crypto assets accepted as collateral, the value of digital assets will directly influence customers’ loan processes. JPMorgan aims to offer more flexible and innovative credit options. The bank is also expected to strengthen its position in digital asset markets with this new application. 

Meanwhile, JPMorgan will closely monitor the impact of market volatility on credit risks. Risk management strategies will be tailored to this new loan model. Additionally, crypto-collateralized loan options will enhance financial flexibility for investors. These developments will further increase the importance of digital assets in the banking sector.

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The post JPMorgan to Launch Crypto-Backed Loans in 2026! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

However, long-short ratios remained balanced. Analysts predict that the short-term downtrend may remain limited against long-term catalysts. On Monday afternoon, Bitcoin traded around $102,000. 

Previously, US missile strikes targeting Iran caused BTC to fall below $99,000. This decline triggered the liquidation of crypto leveraged positions exceeding $1 billion. Sharp drops were also observed in altcoin prices. 

Sharp Rise in Short-Term Volatility 

Derive.xyz stated that implied volatility (IV) surged rapidly as investors digested new geopolitical risks. According to The Block, one-week IV rose to 45% for Bitcoin and 83% for Ethereum. Afterwards, there was an approximate five-point drop. Derive Research Head Dr. Sean Dawson told The Block, “Volatility markets say this is not over yet.” 

Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz created uncertainty in the markets. However, QCP Capital noted that options traders assessed this scenario as low probability. Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin described this possibility as “economic suicide.” According to Puckrin, market participants did not take this threat seriously, and BTC subsequently rose again overnight. 

Resilient Market and New Catalysts 

Although long-short ratios slightly declined, recovery signals showed increased investor confidence. On Friday, Texas approved a law to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, becoming the third US state to do so. Michael Saylor’s company made new purchases, while investors like Anthony Pompliano increased their crypto treasury investments. BRN chief analyst Valentin Fournier stated these developments balance both geopolitical risks in the Middle East and macroeconomic fundamentals. Fournier noted, “Long-term structural demand is strengthening.” 

Solana is expected to perform better than Ethereum in this recovery phase. Ethereum experienced a short-term loss of institutional support but is predicted to regain value as volatility decreases. 

Market Calendar and Expectations 

Markets are now focused on two key dates: 

• July 9: End of Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause 
• July 30: Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting 

CME FedWatch data shows investors do not expect rate cuts after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish statements in June. QCP Capital emphasized that both the Fed’s decisions and developments in the Middle East could affect crypto prices in either direction. 

QCP analysts stated, “The market continues to stay at a turning point,” noting digital assets are moving along a line between risk-taking and risk-aversion. 

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BTC is only 6% away from its all-time high of $111,700. Despite this surge, the network shows remarkable calmness, with a noticeable drop in transaction counts. 

Bitcoin’s daily transactions, which reached 734,000 in 2023 and 2024, have decreased to between 320,000 and 500,000 daily since early 2025. The main reason for this decline is the reduction in non-monetary transactions related to Taproot and OP_RETURN. Monetary transactions have remained stable, with value transfers steady, while data-carrying transactions have nearly ceased. 

Big Investors Gain More Influence 

Despite the drop in transaction counts, transaction volumes remain high. Daily average transaction volume is around $7.5 billion, with the average value per transaction reaching $36,200. This indicates fewer but larger transactions on the network. 

Supporting this trend, transactions over $100,000 now account for 89% of the network volume, while those between $0-$100,000 have fallen to 11%. These figures clearly show large investors dominating on-chain activities. 

Explosion of Off-Chain Market Volumes 

Spot and derivatives markets play a critical role in BTC’s current dynamics. Centralized exchanges see an average daily spot volume of $10 billion. Futures trading volume reached $57 billion daily last year and hit a record $122 billion at peak. 

Options markets have also grown, with daily average volumes reaching $2.4 billion and some days hitting $5 billion. All these figures reveal off-chain market activity is 7 to 16 times larger than on-chain volume. 

Leverage Increases, Risk Rises 

Leverage levels in derivatives markets are rising. Total open interest stands at around $96.2 billion. Especially since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, leverage has increased further, bringing higher risk of sudden price swings. Open interest in futures surged from $7.7 billion to $52.8 billion, while options rose from $3.2 billion to $43.4 billion, pushing total derivatives open interest to $114 billion. This shows clear growth and rising investor interest in derivatives. 

Meanwhile, miners’ income from transaction fees has dropped significantly, averaging only $558,000 daily in the last month. This decline indicates a notable decrease in block space demand, mirroring the general drop in transaction counts. 

One notable development is the preference for stablecoin-collateralized positions over crypto-collateralized ones, signaling more cautious and sustainable risk management by investors. 

The post Bitcoin and Crypto Report 2025: Critical Analysis from Glassnode! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

A Critical Day for Bitcoin and Ethereum Options 

According to Deribit exchange data, approximately 27,959 Bitcoin options contracts are reaching expiration today. The total nominal value of these contracts is around $2.9 billion. Another notable data point is Bitcoin’s max pain level set at $106,500, which represents the price point where option holders experience the greatest loss. 

Looking at the put-to-call ratio, Bitcoin stands at 0.91, indicating that investors still lean towards a bullish market sentiment. While some traders hold bearish positions, confidence in a price increase remains stronger. 

Put Options Dominate Ethereum 

On the other hand, the situation is different for Ethereum. Today, 246,849 Ethereum options contracts are expiring with a total nominal value of approximately $617.6 million. The max pain point for Ethereum is set at $2,650. Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio has reached a significant 1.14, showing that put options are more favored than calls, and investors are seeking greater protection against downside risks. 

Geopolitical Developments and Increased Volatility 

The timing of these option expirations is not coincidental. The Israel-Iran tensions in the Middle East have shaken investor confidence. Notably, implied volatility for Ethereum has shown a marked increase, suggesting potential sharp price movements in the coming days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility remains relatively stable, implying a more steady short-term outlook for BTC.

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The post Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire Today! Critical Day appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The Downtrend Was Broken on the 4-Hour Chart!

In recent days, APT managed to break its long-standing downtrend on the 4-hour chart. One of the main factors behind this breakout was the ETF news, which sparked excitement across the markets. Following this development, the price quickly moved upward and drew significant attention from investors.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

However, after the rise, APT faced several rejections from the bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone. This indicates that the price is encountering strong resistance. Currently, the price has formed a new minor downtrend, suggesting that caution is warranted in the short term.

Support Level at $5.02 Holds Critical Importance!

At the moment, APT is trying to hold above the $5.02 support zone. This level is a key point that will likely determine the direction in the short term. If the $5.02 support is lost, the next support level to watch will be $4.50. This zone has previously attracted strong buying interest, making it a critical area to monitor.

On the other hand, if the price breaks through the bearish FVG zone, the next resistance level will be at $5.50. A sustained close above $5.50 would signal a complete break of the downtrend. In this scenario, a rapid move toward $6.00 could be expected.

APT Is at a Decision Point!

APT is currently at a decision point and attracting the attention of investors. In the short term, the direction the price will take may also influence the broader market sentiment. Adopting stop-loss strategies and proper risk management will offer a safer approach during uncertain periods like this.

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