Alongside this move, a notable rebound appeared in the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks US-based demand. However, this shift points more to selective purchases near lows than to a broad increase in risk appetite.

What Does the Coinbase Premium Index Show?

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — tracking the difference between Coinbase prices and the global average — had dropped to roughly -0.22% at the peak of the sell-off. By Tuesday, it had recovered to around -0.05%.

The index is still in negative territory. But the reversal is significant.

This suggests that, as forced selling eased, US-based investors saw an opportunity to buy the dip. Coinbase is widely regarded as a proxy for institutional and dollar-denominated fund flows. Deep negative premiums usually indicate either aggressive selling by US investors or complete inactivity. A return toward neutral, particularly after one of Bitcoin’s fastest drops since the FTX collapse in 2022, shows some buyers found value at lower levels.

Yet, the critical threshold has not been breached.

The premium has not reached positive territory. Historically, this level aligns with sustainable accumulation among US funds and renewed risk appetite. The current pattern, however, signals selective buying rather than broad-based participation.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Key Levels

Key Developments Behind Bitcoin’s Latest Rebound

• Coinbase Premium Rebounds: The index rose from -0.22% to -0.05%, showing US investors shifted from selling pressure to buying.

• Fear Index Turns From Lows: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend, touching levels seen in the 2022 FTX crash. By late Monday, it rose to 14, but the market remains jittery.

• Liquidity Remains Thin: Trading volumes are far below late-2025 peaks, meaning price moves can spike sharply but lack support.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Levels Analysts Are Watching

Low Volumes, Weak Liquidity

Market structure data supports this cautious interpretation. According to Kaiko, total trading volumes on major exchanges remain far below late-2025 highs. Spot market activity indicates gradual slowdown rather than a surge in demand.

Thin liquidity can create sharp price spikes once selling pressure subsides. But if buyers fail to follow through, the market remains vulnerable to renewed downward moves.

Bitcoin has recovered over 15% from intraday lows and is now trading just below $70,000. Yet weekly losses remain in double digits.

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Investor psychology reflects a similar picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend — near 2022 FTX crash lows — and rose to 14 by late Monday, still signaling excessive fear.

In short: the market has recovered slightly but not fully eased.

Overall, US-based buyers appear to have stepped in on the dip. The Coinbase Premium rebound confirms this. Yet, low volumes, thin liquidity, and a premium still in negative territory prevent us from calling it a broad-based demand wave.

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The data is strong, but the question is why this capital has not yet been deployed. Liquidity exists, appetite does not—at least for now.

Most Liquidity Concentrated on Binance

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk noted on December 29 that exchange-held stablecoin reserves represent roughly 22% of the total market. Binance alone holds $49 billion, accounting for more than 70% of exchange-based buying power.

OKX follows with around $10 billion, and Bybit holds about $3 billion. Together, the top three exchanges control almost the entire pool of exchange liquidity, creating the largest “waiting capital” cluster in crypto history.

Capital Flow in December

December data shows that strong inflows have yet to materialize. Around $8 billion left exchanges during the month—$3 billion from Bybit and $2 billion from Binance. OKX remained mostly unchanged.

Even after these outflows, Binance still holds close to 15% of global stablecoin supply. According to CryptoQuant, reserves like this matter most when sentiment changes. Exchanges with deeper pools can deploy capital first.

Everything Is Ready, Just Missing a Trigger

On-chain activity fell about 40%, while whales accumulated roughly 20,000 BTC. Open interest in futures expanded by $2 billion. The infrastructure is ready, leverage is in place, capital is waiting—the only missing piece is a trigger.

Bitcoin Struggles at Resistance, Signals Mixed

Bitcoin rebounded to $90,000 for a 2% gain in 24 hours but faced resistance. Ethereum recovered above $3,000, and major altcoins like BNB and XRP also saw short-term relief.

Experts remain split. CW noted that retail traders and whales were buying simultaneously on Binance. Ali Martinez warned the rally could be short-lived due to negative capital flows and ongoing spot ETF outflows. Derivatives data also indicates caution: Bitcoin futures funding rates remain high, signaling that leverage has not fully reset.

Patience Dominates Despite Optimism

Macro expectations for 2026—including looser monetary policy and potential capital rotation into risk assets—keep long-term optimism alive. For now, the record stablecoin stockpile shows capital is ready, but patience remains the dominant strategy until a clearer catalyst emerges.

The market is searching not for direction, but for timing.

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Earlier this week, BTC briefly dipped below the eighty-seven-thousand-dollar mark, raising concerns among traders. Social data from Santiment shows an almost perfect split between predictions of a drop toward the seventy-thousand region and bullish calls for a rally toward one hundred thirty thousand dollars. Meanwhile, this mixed outlook reinforces uncertainty and leaves BTC vulnerable to fast swings.

Earlier this week, BTC briefly dipped below $83,000, rattling investors, and even spiked down to $82,000 within minutes. Social media sentiment remained split, with some predicting a drop below $70,000, while others forecasted a rally toward $130,000. Meanwhile, the market structure amplified the impact of this uncertainty on price movements.

Analysts Warn of Macro Pressure and Conflicting Signals

Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau notes that Bitcoin is being pulled in different directions as macro signals and sector momentum clash. Falling odds of a December rate cut create pressure, while stronger-than-expected AI earnings help stabilize risk sentiment. However, the combination of these factors keeps Bitcoin in a search for direction.

Puckrin adds that if broader market optimism holds, Bitcoin may attempt an upward move. He highlights 107,500 dollars as the next resistance area to watch. At the same time, the crypto market often reacts more violently when sentiment becomes deeply divided.

Bitcoin's new 6-month low of $86.7K is expected to bring major crowd reactions as the day progresses. Social volume still shows a mixed bag of dip buy optimism and doom & gloom, with very little "in between".

Social Media Mentions of $20K-$70K $BTC Price Levels
Social… pic.twitter.com/t1YSzKXM0a

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 20, 2025

Extreme Fear Creates Opportunity, but Timing Remains Key

Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets says Bitcoin is currently trading around eighty-seven thousand dollars, with technical indicators trending lower. She explains that weakening momentum, reduced money flow, and declining volume indicate a sharp deterioration in trader sentiment. Additionally, macro pressure, shrinking liquidity and rising risk-off behavior continue to fuel volatility.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 14 confirms extreme fear among market participants. Although it recovered slightly afterward, the overall tone remains fragile. Lucas notes that extreme fear can create opportunity, but the right timing is crucial. Moreover, the coming weeks will depend heavily on several market drivers:

• Liquidity conditions and institutional flows
• Shifts in crypto regulatory developments
• Global risk appetite and cyclical market behavior

This creates a challenging environment for traders, as Bitcoin’s recent price action raises the question of whether the market is entering a deeper correction or preparing for a stronger rebound.

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The recent rapid growth has increased on-chain activity and shifted investor sentiment. AMINA Bank, the first regulated Swiss institution, has started offering custody and trading services for the SUI token. This development has built a solid bridge between traditional finance and crypto. 

Meanwhile, the $500 million treasury funding provided by Mill City Ventures has strengthened the project’s long-term growth plans. With this support, 1.28 million new user accounts were created in just 24 hours. The total number of addresses has exceeded 257.9 million. 

According to Binance data, 70.8% of investors in SUI futures are in long positions. The long/short ratio stands at 2.42, indicating continued bullish sentiment among investors. 

On the other hand, open interest dropped to $699.6 million, revealing waning speculative interest. Additionally, the weighted market sentiment has declined to -0.655. Conversely, the social engagement rate rose to 0.973%. These conflicting metrics create uncertainty over short-term direction. 

What Do Technical Indicators Say? SUI Trapped Below VWAP 

SUI is currently consolidating just below the $3.50 resistance. This level aligns with the VWAP line and a previously supportive region. At this structurally pivotal point, buyers are preparing for a strong breakout. 

Meanwhile, a recovery in short-term EMA levels indicates an effort to stabilize price. Still, sustained movement above $3.50 is needed to confirm a clear direction. 

According to crypto analytics platform CryptoPulse, the current structure represents an accumulation zone. However, only a breakout above this resistance will confirm a short-term uptrend. 

$SUI has pulled back right into the sweet spot.
Price just hit the VWAP average and is sitting directly on structural support around $3.50. This is exactly where we’ve been waiting to step in.

SUI continues to gain recognition across the space and has the structure of a project… pic.twitter.com/f6lVqegA2I

— CryptoPulse (@CryptoPulse_CRU) August 4, 2025

The current setup shows descending highs after rejection from $5.25, indicating that bulls are regrouping just below the key threshold. If $3.50 is breached, the price is expected to move toward $4.00 and then $5.00. 

Moreover, strong on-chain activity and institutional backing reinforce the long-term outlook. However, caution is advised in the short term. 

With solid partnerships and funding, SUI is reinforcing its foundations. Still, short-term direction depends on the $3.50 resistance. Until this level is broken, the market will remain in wait-and-see mode. 

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This price action has also impacted the share of BTC supply held in profit. According to Glassnode, as of August 1, Bitcoin’s supply in profit dropped to 91.71%, the lowest level in 41 days. This metric indicates what percentage of circulating BTC is currently held above acquisition cost. 

Historically, a decline in this metric reflects weakening market sentiment. Fewer holders remain in profit, which can increase selling pressure. As a result, short-term corrections in BTC’s price become more likely. 

Long/Short Ratio Falls: Leverage Traders Pull Back 

The derivatives market also shows signs of reduced bullish sentiment. BTC’s long/short ratio has dropped to 0.96, falling below the key 1.0 threshold. This ratio compares the number of long positions to short ones. A figure below 1 suggests more traders are betting on a price decline than a rise. 

At the same time, the decrease in long exposure creates room for downward movement. Unless a new bullish catalyst emerges, BTC may struggle to regain upward momentum. 

Additionally, trading volume has significantly decreased. Daily volume, which peaked during July’s rally, is now showing signs of weakening market participation. The combination of weaker demand and rising profit-taking strengthens the bearish short-term outlook. 

Which Levels Could Bitcoin Test Next? 

Based on current technical indicators, Bitcoin could test the $111,855 support zone in the short term. This level is viewed as a key threshold by many market participants. If buyer interest strengthens here, BTC could recover toward $116,952. 

Meanwhile, $120,000 remains a critical resistance level for bullish continuation. Breaking through this zone may rebuild investor confidence and trigger fresh momentum. However, this would require an uptick in trading volume and a visible shift in market sentiment. 

Moreover, upcoming macroeconomic developments and possible ETF-related news could act as external catalysts. For now, caution dominates BTC’s short-term outlook.

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However, similar whale transactions have notably influenced market trends in recent weeks. This liquidity event is not isolated. Comparable Bitcoin liquidity incidents were observed in May and June as well. The sudden entrance of this large leveraged long position had an immediate and significant impact on the market. 

Notably, investors like James Wynn from Hyperliquid have previously made headlines with large leveraged positions. Such moves deeply affect market dynamics. Following this latest Bitcoin whale activity, the sustainability of the price increase is now under scrutiny. Traders are closely monitoring the situation. According to Coinglass data, liquidity in exchange order books is renewing upward. This development has sparked debates among traders about Bitcoin’s potential breakout from the current tight trading range. 

BREAKING: A Whale has just opened $241 million $BTC long position with 20x leverage. pic.twitter.com/6WcikRQySD

— Mr. WHALE (@MrWhaleREAL) June 20, 2025

Market Analysts’ Comments on Bitcoin’s Future 

Popular investor Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the importance of the current range. In an X post, he stated, “Many positions have formed on both sides within this range, and the liquidity location is clear.” He also highlighted the importance of $100,000 and $110,000 levels for June, noting that potential reactions at these levels should be watched. Another investor, Crypto Tony, suggested that for the short-term bullish scenario to continue, Bitcoin needs to remain above $104,500 until the weekly close. 

SOMEONE JUST WENT ALL-IN ON $BTC

$255,000,000 LONG

20x leverage at $104K

HE KNOWS SOMETHING! pic.twitter.com/BL88Mh1Cc0

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) June 20, 2025

The market’s reaction to this large leveraged position clearly shows its influence on Bitcoin’s price movements. The reasons behind the $255 million long position remain uncertain. However, the market’s immediate response and subsequent short position liquidations indicate a significant shift in market sentiment. Investors are now focused on whether this move will trigger a decisive breakout from the current trading range. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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TRUMP Token Down 85% From ATH

In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a Newsmax article suggesting his memecoin reflects public momentum behind his leadership. While the president seems to embrace this idea, market data tells a different story: the TRUMP token currently trades around $10, a steep fall from its $73 all-time high in January.

$520M Token Unlock Set For July

Compounding the challenge is an imminent $520 million token unlock set for July 18. Onchain data from Tokenomist shows that just 26.48% of the token supply is circulating. The remaining 735 million tokens — over 73% of the total supply — are yet to hit the market.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

The unlock will introduce 50 million new tokens, potentially flooding the market. Without proportional demand, this could trigger a further price drop. Trump’s son, Eric Trump, attempted to reassure investors on June 7 by announcing that World Liberty Financial, a Trump-affiliated crypto firm, plans to acquire a significant amount of TRUMP tokens. However, market reaction was muted — which analysts interpreted as a lack of confidence.

Do Memecoins Really Measure Public Opinion?

Using memecoins as sentiment indicators is not new. Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, previously said the TRUMP token’s initial rise was largely driven by hype and novelty. Still, he noted that long-term trends could reflect broader political sentiment toward Trump’s leadership.

With the $520M unlock on the horizon, how the market reacts may speak louder than any social media post — for both crypto investors and political observers.

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Support Holds For Now

Tether dominance is currently holding steady at the 4.44% support level. As long as this support remains intact, there’s potential for a rise toward 5.16%. This would typically indicate a cooling period or correction phase for the broader market. Caution is advised, especially for traders entering long positions.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Break Below May Trigger Bullish Shift

On the flip side, if the 4.44% support is broken, dominance could fall to 4.10%. This would suggest increasing risk appetite and could signal the start of a rally in Bitcoin and altcoins. Monitoring this level could provide early clues about broader market sentiment.

The market stands at a turning point. Whether Tether dominance climbs or falls will likely influence the next major move. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on USDT.D for directional cues in this uncertain environment.

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Crypto commentator Mister Crypto pointed to BlockchainCenter.net‘s altcoin vs. Bitcoin dominance chart, noting a breakout just under the 29 level. This move could signal a shift away from Bitcoin dominance, paving the way for altcoins to outperform.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

When the index is below 25, it’s considered Bitcoin Season; when it’s above 75, Altcoin Season. The current breakout indicates rising altcoin momentum, possibly leading to a market environment favoring riskier crypto assets.

This Altseason Might Be Different

Not everyone is sold on the idea. Analyst 2Lambroz noted that while an Altseason may be underway, investor sentiment and market dynamics have changed. There is no dominant retail narrative, and traders are cycling capital quickly without long-term commitment.

In contrast, technical trader Moustache remains optimistic. He shared historical chart patterns from 2016 and 2020, suggesting Altseason 2025 has officially begun based on similar market structures.

Still, skeptics like Rekt Fencer caution that most altcoins remain down over 90% from December levels. A modest 10% bounce this week, he argued, has caused overexcitement. “This is the ALTSEASON we’ve all been waiting for,” he joked sarcastically.

Global Optimism Fuels Crypto Surge

Crypto markets surged over the weekend, driven by renewed global optimism. Bitcoin climbed to $104,900, just 4% shy of its all-time high, following positive U.S.-China trade developments and easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

Ethereum (ETH) and memecoins rallied sharply, with investors returning to risk assets. “Markets gained clarity, and that boosted confidence,” said Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research.

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