Throughout the week, crypto prices have largely remained flat, with a slight increase on Friday. Total market capitalization has risen by $150 billion since Monday, though trading volumes and volatility remain subdued.

Bitcoin Options and Market Dynamics

This week’s Bitcoin options have a put/call ratio of around 0.97, meaning longs and shorts are closely matched. According to Coinglass, the “max pain” level is around $69,000. Many options expiring today are close to profitable levels, meaning investors could realize gains from their contracts.

Open interest (OI) on Deribit is highest at the $60,000 strike, with approximately $1.7 billion in bearish bets. Total Bitcoin options OI across all exchanges has climbed to $45.5 billion this March.

Greeks Live observed the market recovery, noting that Bitcoin has remained above the $70,000 psychological level and is “now poised to challenge $75,000.” Additionally, the flat forward implied volatility curve beyond March shows no significant premium for longer-dated options, suggesting balanced risk pricing.

On the Ethereum side, around 185,000 contracts are expiring, with a total value of $382 million, max pain at $2,000, and a put/call ratio of 1.2. Total ETH options OI across exchanges is around $7.9 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiring today to $2.3 billion.

Spot Markets and Altcoins

Spot markets also recorded gains, with total capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion, marking a weekly high.

Bitcoin tested the $72,000 level in early trading but faced resistance and pulled back. Ether rose about 4%, surpassing $2,100.

Altcoins mostly showed positive performance, with notable gains for Solana, Hyperliquid, Avalanche, and Sui. Pi Network (PI) jumped 33% to $0.29 following its Kraken listing.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today represent a total notional value of $2.3 billion. Max pain levels are near current prices, highlighting potential price pressure in the options market. Spot market movements remain limited, but psychological levels should be monitored.

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The first two months of 2026 alone already represent a 22.3% drawdown for BTC. If this pace holds, the market could be heading toward its weakest first quarter since 2018. That period is still fresh in memory: nearly a 50% collapse in just three months.

Short answer? Yes — it’s on the table.
The longer answer is more layered.

Q1 statistics are flashing warning signs

Historically, Bitcoin has closed seven of its thirteen first quarters in the red. The hardest hit came in 2018, with a brutal 49.7% drop. More recent examples include losses of 10.8% in 2020 and 11.8% in 2025 — figures clearly reflected in CoinGlass records.

Crypto analyst Daan Trades Crypto noted over the weekend that first quarters are historically volatile by nature. In other words, what unfolds during Q1 often doesn’t translate directly into the rest of the year.

There’s another notable detail: Bitcoin has only recorded back-to-back losing first quarters twice — in 2018 and 2022. Both were bear-market years.

January and February could both close red for the first time

This may be the most striking signal.

Bitcoin fell 10.2% in January. February is already down 13.4%. If price fails to reclaim $80,000 before month-end, Bitcoin will, for the first time ever, close both January and February in negative territory.

That seemingly small statistic is now firmly on the radar of everyone from algorithmic traders to long-term funds.

Ethereum isn’t faring much better either. While ETH has only posted red first quarters three times historically, the current period is shaping up as its third-worst Q1 on record, with losses already reaching 34.3%.

“This isn’t a collapse — it’s a classic correction”

Speaking on behalf of LVRG Research, Nick Ruck described the pullback as a “classic correction phase” rather than a structural breakdown.

He acknowledged that global uncertainty could intensify short-term pressure, but emphasized that Bitcoin has historically shown resilience after similar periods. Continued institutional interest and the underlying halving cycle narrative still support the medium-term outlook.

Over the past 24 hours, BTC slipped another 2.3%, trading near $68,600 at the time of writing. Current pricing aligns with data from CoinGecko. The story was originally reported by Cointelegraph.

The market has paused — but data flow is accelerating

On-chain metrics show declining spot volume, while derivatives markets are seeing open interest rise again. That combination typically points to a “hesitant bottom” phase. Panic selling may be fading, but direction remains unresolved. The next few days — especially alongside U.S. macro releases — could shape Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Bitcoin is now down more than 22% year-to-date, has logged five consecutive losing weeks, and is edging toward its first ever dual red January–February close. On the surface, the picture looks unsettling. Yet past cycles suggest Q1 turbulence doesn’t always define the year.

For now, the market sits in a kind of waiting room — quiet, tense, and highly sensitive.

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Derivatives data shows institutional players rapidly increasing downside hedges. Spot prices sitting far below max pain levels only reinforce that message.

Bitcoin carries the weight, Ethereum follows

Most of today’s expiring contracts belong to Bitcoin. Roughly $2.2 billion in BTC options are settling, with Ethereum contributing another $419 million, pushing the combined total past $2.6 billion.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,686, well below its $80,000 max pain level — the price where options holders would feel the most loss.

Open interest paints a cautious picture:

• Total BTC contracts: 33,984

• Calls: 21,396

• Puts: 12,588

That leaves a 0.59 call/put ratio, signaling clear downside bias.

Ethereum looks slightly more balanced. ETH trades near $1,905, while its max pain sits at $2,400. Total open interest stands at 219,034 contracts, split between:

• 113,427 calls

• 105,607 puts

The resulting 0.93 ratio suggests less directional conviction than Bitcoin — but caution still dominates.

The wide gap between spot prices and max pain levels favors option sellers. Directional traders, meanwhile, face elevated risk if prices remain range-bound.

Smaller than last week — but far more tense

Today’s expiry is modest compared to last Friday’s massive $8.8 billion settlement tied to monthly contracts. But this time, volatility — not size — is driving the narrative.

According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin’s short-term implied volatility has doubled since the start of the year, touching 100%. Core maturities jumped more than 15% in just two weeks, now sitting above 50%.

Analysts say derivatives markets are showing clear stress signals, with large players actively reshuffling exposure.

Greeks.live noted:

“The $60,000 zone marks Bitcoin’s pre-Trump-rally consolidation area, where support remains relatively strong. A sharp short-term drop could create a buying opportunity.”

Panic is visible — but conditions for a prolonged selloff look thin

Options structure now leans decisively bearish. Still, demand for deep out-of-the-money contracts — essentially lottery-style bets — is quietly rising.

Greeks.live analysts put it bluntly:

“The market is showing extreme panic. Conditions don’t support a prolonged BTC downturn. Rapid risk-off liquidation could actually accelerate a rebound.”

Bitcoin’s steady drift toward the psychological $60,000 level is amplifying uncertainty. Implied volatility at 100% confirms that traders are pricing in unusually large price swings.

Post-expiry flows could reset the market

Deribit analysts point out that positions have been clustering around key strike levels, creating a kind of gravitational pull on price action.

That effect may now disappear.

Deribit explained:

“With protection demand rising and volatility being repriced, this expiry could temporarily reset dealer hedging flows. Price behavior after 08:00 UTC may differ significantly from recent sessions.”

Options on Deribit officially expire at 08:00 UTC. As hedges unwind and liquidity conditions shift, markets could see sharp moves shortly afterward.

Bearish positioning currently dominates derivatives. But history shows that panic-driven selloffs often clear excessive leverage — sometimes setting the stage for fast rebounds.

Bottom line: this $2.6B expiry isn’t just routine mechanics. It’s a real stress test for short-term market direction.

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Available open-source information does not verify a marketwide short bet. Public reports suggest that an investor believed to be close to Trump took large short positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, reportedly generating significant profits thanks to exceptional timing. Yet none of these sources — including Yahoo Finance — confirm positions spanning equities or commodities.

In fact, during another move in October 2025, the trader allegedly opened billion-dollar short positions just 30 minutes before Bitcoin crashed from $122,000 to $102,000, reportedly earning around $200 million. That timing sparked a familiar question among analysts: Did someone know something in advance?

In other words: BTC and ETH trades are being discussed — but there’s no evidence supporting the claim of a “$150 million bet against the entire market.”

Why Do BTC and ETH Shorts Matter?

Heavy downside positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum can tighten liquidity, especially in derivatives markets. This can lead to:

• widening spreads

• distorted funding rates

• cascading liquidations of leveraged positions

Because crypto assets move with high correlation, even a single large short wave can quickly spill over into other markets.

Insider trading allegations form a separate layer of concern. If trades were truly placed using non-public information, the impact could extend from token prices to options positioning. In such a scenario, regulatory penalties, fines, and trading restrictions could follow.

For investors, the key is separating rumor from verified positioning. The phrase “Trump insider trader” currently has no legal standing — it functions more as a media shorthand than a confirmed designation.

Where Verification Breaks Down: On-Chain Data and Official Records

To definitively attribute trades to a specific individual, the following evidence is typically required:

• wallet clustering and transfer paths

• links to known addresses

• exchange position histories

• margin records and liquidation logs

So far, none of this technical matching has been publicly released.

Some market commentators have pointed to timing patterns and raised the question of prior knowledge. The Kobeissi Letter is among those highlighting this possibility.

However, there is no official statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) addressing this specific claim. Silence does not confirm or deny an investigation — it simply means no verified documentation exists at this stage.

How Should Investors Evaluate This Without Falling Into Speculation?

A basic verification checklist helps:

• Which instruments? (BTC, ETH, or others?)

• Position size and leverage

• Entry and exit timing

• Realized profit

• Technical proof of ownership

Without clarity on these points, drawing definitive conclusions is premature.

At this point, two key claims remain unproven:

• That the $150 million position covered the entire market

• That the trader has a verified connection to Donald Trump

Neither is confirmed in current reporting.

Quick Q&A

Is there official proof linking the trader to Trump?
No. Media outlets use this framing for narrative simplicity. Regulators have provided no verified connection.

Have BTC and ETH shorts been confirmed via on-chain or exchange data?
Reports reference large BTC/ETH shorts and accurate timing, but no public wallet addresses or exchange accounts have been disclosed.

Bottom line: there are notable BTC and ETH trades. But the claim that a “Trump-linked trader shorted the entire market for $150 million” remains unverified — a strong allegation, not an established fact. Following confirmed data matters more than headline momentum.

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Prices retreated. Bitcoin fell below $76,000. Ethereum dropped under $2,300. Solana failed to break the $100 threshold. Trades below these levels were driven more by forced position closures than regular selling.

Bitcoin Below $76,000: Liquidations Dominate

As Bitcoin fell below $76,000, short-term derivative positions rapidly unwound. Crypto liquidation heatmaps show the highest activity occurred in BTC contracts.

According to data shared by CoinGlass, over 435,000 traders closed their positions in the last 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $2.58 billion. Of this, $2.42 billion came from long positions.

This indicates the movement was less about strong spot selling and more about high-leverage long positions reaching their limit. Liquidations triggered faster in bands with concentrated short-term long positions.

Ethereum Fails to Hold $2,300

Ethereum also struggled. The $2,300 level had served as a key reference in derivatives markets. Falling below this level triggered stop orders, increasing liquidation volume. A single $222 million Ethereum liquidation on Hyperliquid highlighted the intensity of selling pressure. Data shows Ethereum’s drop was driven primarily by unwinding in futures rather than spot selling, keeping short-term price movements volatile.

Solana fell under $100, accelerating liquidations in leveraged positions. This level was closely watched both technically and psychologically.

Liquidation data shows long positions dominated in Solana as well. Falling below this threshold reduced short-term trading volume while increasing volatility.

Last 4 Hours: Exchange Liquidation Distribution

In the past four hours, total liquidations reached $20.7 million, with around 76% from long positions.

In the last hour, $13.81 million in total liquidations occurred, with $12.63 million still concentrated on longs. This shows short-term traders tried to maintain bullish expectations. Over the four-hour period, liquidations rose to $25.48 million, making selling pressure more noticeable.

Interestingly, over the 12-hour period, $130.93 million in liquidations was split nearly evenly: $63.48 million long, $67.45 million short, indicating uncertainty in market direction.

Exchange Breakdown:

• Binance: $7.36M – 70%+ long

• OKX: $3.85M – long-heavy

• Gate: $2.94M – ~90% long

• Bybit: $2.83M – predominantly long

This distribution shows the market was caught off-guard and risk was concentrated in one direction.

Market Outlook

The current picture indicates the crypto market has not yet stabilized. Volatility is unlikely to subside until leverage ratios decrease. However, liquidation of high-risk crypto positions could provide a healthier foundation for prices going forward.

In the short term, the key factor will be whether aggressive positioning resumes in crypto derivatives markets.

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Investors are cautiously optimistic, but technical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties still weigh on the market.

Bitcoin Max Pain Levels

Bitcoin accounts for the lion’s share of today’s expiry, with BTC options totaling around $1.94 billion.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the $92,000 “max pain” level at roughly $89,750. There are 21,657 open contracts: 11,944 calls and 9,713 puts. The put-call ratio of 0.81 indicates mild bullish sentiment while maintaining significant downside hedging.

Ethereum Position Pressure

Ethereum options total $347.7 million. ETH trades far below its $3,200 max pain level, at around $2,960.

The open interest consists of 117,513 contracts: 63,796 calls and 53,717 puts. The put-call ratio of 0.84 signals cautious optimism but continued downside protection.

Expiry Mechanics and Magnet Effect

According to Deribit analysts, price movements are currently shaped more by mechanical hedging flows than fundamental data.

Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties push investors toward hedging rather than directional bets. This keeps implied volatility (IV) elevated.

As expiry approaches, Bitcoin’s $92,000 and Ethereum’s $3,200 levels act as price magnets. Prices approaching these levels may increase volatility; deviations could trigger rapid repositioning.

Post-Expiry Scenarios

Once contracts expire, accumulated gamma risk is released, and the market may experience sudden directional moves.

• If selling pressure eases: a weekend relief rally is possible.

• If macro risks persist: sharp downside moves may occur.

For BTC and ETH investors, today’s expiry is a critical market turning point.

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The rally has been building since the start of 2026, with acceleration becoming more visible over the past week. Reports pointing to a partial rollback of Trump-era tariffs eased pressure across risk markets, briefly lifting overall crypto sentiment. River moved well ahead of the broader market during this window.

According to CoinGecko data, RIVER reached a peak of $48.56 earlier today. The token gained 24.2% in the last 24 hours, compared with roughly a 1% increase across the wider crypto market. At the time of writing, price action has stabilized near $45.8.

Momentum Builds Fast

River is positioned as a decentralized finance protocol focused on chain abstraction, allowing users to deploy collateral on one blockchain while accessing liquidity on another without bridges or wrapped assets. This structure aims to reduce fragmentation while preserving capital efficiency.

The protocol’s core product, satUSD, operates as an overcollateralized stablecoin built on an Omni-CDP framework. The native RIVER token is used for governance, staking incentives, fee reductions, and reward distribution, reinforcing its role across the ecosystem.

Ecosystem Narrative Expands

Narrative momentum strengthened further this week after confirmation of an $8 million strategic investment from Justin Sun. The funding supports River’s integration into the TRON ecosystem and the deployment of its chain abstraction infrastructure.

The team also plans to introduce Smart Vault and institutional-grade Prime Vault products, targeting yield opportunities for stablecoins, TRX, and core ecosystem assets. These developments have helped sustain upside interest alongside the price rally.

Derivatives Start to Dominate

Despite the strong headline performance, derivatives data is beginning to raise caution. CoinGlass reports that RIVER futures trading volume has exceeded spot volume by more than 80 times, a level often associated with leverage-driven price behavior rather than organic demand.

Such imbalances can distort price signals, especially when funding dynamics encourage crowded positioning. In these conditions, sharp moves are frequently driven by liquidations rather than sustained buying pressure.

Risk Shifts Beneath the Surface

Some market watchers note that similar structures in past rallies preceded abrupt pullbacks once derivatives pressure normalized. While no immediate reversal is confirmed, the current setup suggests rising sensitivity to volatility.

In the days ahead, the key question may not be how high RIVER can climb, but whether the rally is supported by durable demand or increasingly fragile market mechanics.

What is River (RIVER)?

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Bullish Trend and Institutional Positions in Bitcoin

Bitcoin options dominate the market with a total value of approximately $1.87 billion. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,972, just above the max pain level of $88,000. Open interest shows 14,194 call contracts versus 6,806 put contracts, totaling 21,001 contracts and a put-call ratio of 0.48.

Institutional activity in block trades accounts for 36.4% of call contracts and 24.9% of puts. This indicates that the market is positioned more for upward expectations rather than short-term hedging. Option volume is particularly concentrated in the March and June 2026 maturities.

Cautious Optimism in Ethereum

Ethereum options have a total notional value of approximately $395.7 million. ETH is trading around $3,023, slightly above the max pain level of $2,950. Open interest includes 80,957 calls versus 49,998 puts, totaling 130,955 contracts with a put-call ratio of 0.62.

In addition, call contracts account for 73.7% of Ethereum block trade volume. This suggests that investors are taking strategic, longer-term positions rather than short-term speculative bets. Options remain active across quarterly maturities throughout the year, signaling an expectation of broader upward movement.

Expiry Risks and Volatility Outlook

Option expiries typically trigger market fluctuations. As contracts close, investors must either exercise positions or let them lapse, which often aligns prices near max pain levels and reduces payout obligations for option sellers.

High concentration of expiring contracts can weaken price stability. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices stray from key levels, volatility may rise. Bullish momentum appears strong. However, as investors roll positions and reassess risk, short-term pressure may occur. Bitcoin’s high call contracts and Ethereum’s heavy block trade calls suggest that upward movement could gain speed.

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Why Is the Bank of Japan Persistent in Its Rate Policy?

The December BOJ minutes revealed a notable division among board members regarding interest rates. Some emphasized that Japan’s current policy rate remains abnormally low by global standards. Additionally, the low-rate environment has increased pressure on the yen and affected inflation transmission.

In the latest meeting, the central bank raised its main policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years. Yet, when adjusted for inflation, some board members still consider it insufficient. Consequently, additional rate hikes in the coming months may be inevitable.

One member noted, “Timing interest rate increases appropriately can limit long-term inflationary pressures.” This reflects a more controlled yet decisive approach to policy normalization.

Yen Depreciation and Market Balance

Despite rate hikes, the Japanese yen has dropped to multi-decade lows, creating an unexpected conflict for markets. Typically, higher interest rates support the currency, but capital outflows have remained dominant.

BOJ officials acknowledged that currency fluctuations are increasingly impacting domestic prices. As a result, exchange rate stability has become an indirect policy objective. However, short-term volatility could rise as rates continue to adjust.

Most economists expect another rate step within six months, with the terminal rate projected to reach 1.25–1.50% by 2027.

Why This Matters for the Crypto Market

Global investors have long used the yen for low-cost borrowing, channeling funds into higher-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies. Rising rates could reduce the attractiveness of these carry trades.

In such a scenario, the unwinding of leveraged positions may accelerate, triggering sharp crypto price swings. Historical data shows that BOJ decisions have previously led to significant Bitcoin declines.

• After the March and July 2024 decisions, BTC fell over 20%

• The January 2025 rate hike caused a drop exceeding 30%

Thus, BOJ policy signals remain closely watched by crypto investors. Future volatility will likely be highly sensitive to the central bank’s next moves.

The upcoming BOJ meeting will be critical in determining the yen–crypto correlation.

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Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin briefly dipping to $87,600 on Coinbase, marking its lowest level in nearly two weeks. Although prices rebounded toward $89,000 shortly after, the sudden move reinforced a pattern of sharp weekend declines that traders have grown accustomed to in recent weeks.

Bitcoin Slides to Two-Week Low as Volatility Returns

The dip to $87,600 represents Bitcoin’s weakest price action since early December, when the asset was recovering from a deeper pullback toward $84,000. Despite the brief nature of the decline, the move unsettled short-term traders and triggered renewed discussions around downside risk.

Weekend volatility has become increasingly common, particularly during periods of thin liquidity. As a result, even modest selling pressure can push prices lower quickly before buyers step back in.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had managed to reclaim ground above $89,000. However, traders remain cautious, watching whether the recovery can hold into the new trading week.

Saylor Signals Another Strategy Bitcoin Purchase

Amid the price drop, Michael Saylor posted a familiar message on X, writing “Back to More Orange Dots” alongside a portfolio chart. The phrase has become widely associated with Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

According to SaylorTracker data, Strategy’s most recent Bitcoin purchase occurred on Dec. 12, when the firm acquired 10,624 BTC. That transaction marked its largest buy since late July, reinforcing the company’s long-term conviction.

Strategy currently holds approximately 660,624 BTC, valued at around $58.5 billion based on current market prices. With an average acquisition cost of $74,696 per coin, the firm remains comfortably in profit despite recent market turbulence.

Japan Rate Expectations Fuel Selling Pressure Debate

Some analysts believe the renewed selling pressure may be linked to expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan’s upcoming interest rate decision. Market participants are increasingly focused on Japan’s role in global liquidity conditions.

Analyst NoLimit warned that Japan’s previous rate hikes have coincided with sharp Bitcoin corrections. They highlighted Japan’s position as the largest holder of U.S. debt, suggesting that shifts in its monetary policy can ripple across global risk assets.

Polymarket data currently assigns a 98% probability to a 0.25% rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this week. This expectation has fueled concerns about a potential carry trade unwind.

However, not all analysts agree. Sykodelic argued that markets have already priced in Japan’s move, emphasizing that prices tend to react ahead of known events rather than after they occur.

Justin d’Anethan of Arctic Digital echoed this view, suggesting Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000. According to d’Anethan, traders are now waiting for a stronger catalyst to break the current consolidation phase.

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