Bitcoin now trades in a range between $65,000 and $72,000. It may look like an ordinary consolidation zone, but behind the scenes, something else is happening. Whales, long-term holders, and institutional players are active here. No sudden spikes, no dramatic crashes. But accumulation is taking place—slow, patient, often at levels typical for market bottoms.

In periods like this, market reflexes tend to be predictable. Risk aversion kicks in. Capital flows away from more volatile assets toward those seen as safer. In crypto, that “safe haven” is often Bitcoin.

Binance Data Shows Clear Rotation

Binance, one of the exchanges with the largest volumes, clearly reflects this rotation. Trading volumes split between BTC, ETH, and other altcoins show Bitcoin reclaiming dominance.

According to CryptoQuant, since February 7, Bitcoin has regained the lead with a 36.8% share of Binance’s total volume. Altcoins, which held a massive 59.2% dominance in November, have shrunk to just 33.6% by February 13—roughly a 50% drop in activity in just a few months. Historical corrections—August 2024, April 2025, and the late 2022 bear market—show similar patterns: when stress rises, capital naturally moves toward “digital gold.”

The sharp decline in altcoin volumes is more than numbers; it signals a clear drop in risk appetite.

History Repeats

Patterns like this have appeared before: August 2024, April 2025, and late 2022. Each time, altcoin activity contracts, and capital flows toward Bitcoin. A defensive reflex. When uncertainty rises, investors seek deeper, more liquid, less fragile assets. Bitcoin has long played this role.

Once BTC surpassed $60,000 again, the trend accelerated. Volume distribution quietly shifted. Speculative altcoin momentum faltered, while Bitcoin remained stable. This contrast became a key factor determining capital allocation.

Altcoins Still Under Pressure

The altcoin market has not fully recovered since 2024. Sporadic rallies happen, but overall momentum is weak. The euphoric peaks of 2021 remain far away for many projects.

Liquidity is limited, speculative interest is low, and investors are more selective. Many altcoins still trade well below historical highs, shaping a cautious market sentiment.

CryptoQuant analysis confirms this picture: Bitcoin’s current consolidation acts more as a strategic accumulation zone than speculative playground. Large players typically act in such phases—not the short-term, rapid-profit crowd, but patient capital.

This signals a shift in market character: noise decreases, but movement continues.

Bitcoin’s Role Strengthens Again

It’s not new that Bitcoin’s volume share rises in times of market stress. But this rotation is sharper and faster than usual. A roughly 50% drop in altcoin activity highlights how investors reprioritize.

Bitcoin remains the market’s center. Liquidity pools here, risk-averse flows anchor here, and it continues to be the reference point. Altcoins are not entirely sidelined, but for now, most capital prefers Bitcoin.

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This indicator measures the difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance. It is used to gauge corporate demand relative to retail investors. Deep moves into the negative zone typically coincide with periods of intensified institutional selling.

Right now, the chart is saying exactly that.

According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Gap fell to -167.8, the lowest level in over a year. At the same time, trading volume on Coinbase Advanced Trade is below that of Binance, which is widely used by retail investors.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes this difference is not a coincidence:

“Institutional investor selling pressure is intensifying. Prices are pushed down, creating a negative gap.”

In other words, large players are exiting at lower prices.

Whales Selling at Low Premiums

Coinbase premiums have steadily declined since October. The drop accelerated significantly in the past week.

This trend shows that whales are consistently offloading Bitcoin at lower premiums. It also signals waning interest and activity on Coinbase.

Darkfost summarizes the current environment:

“The market is highly uncertain. Risk appetite is low, which prevents strong capital inflows into Bitcoin. BTC remains volatile and risky.”

Spot ETFs Turn Net Sellers

Weakness on the institutional side is not limited to Coinbase data. According to CryptoQuant’s latest market update, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which purchased over 46,000 BTC at this time last year, have become net sellers in 2026, offloading roughly 10,600 BTC so far.

This shift created a 56,000 BTC demand gap compared to 2025, sustaining selling pressure. Last week alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling $1.2 billion. Bitcoin fell below $71,000 on Thursday, testing its lowest levels in 15 months.

Institutions Pull Back, Pressure Deepens

Such a negative Coinbase Premium Gap generally means one thing: professional money is exiting the market. Retail investors may still be active, but institutions clearly set the price. Bitcoin’s continued volatility and risk perception are pushing corporate funds toward safer havens, making $70,552 a critical psychological level for market participants.

As long as this structure persists, short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin is unlikely to ease.

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Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler

In his May 1 analysis, Adler examined three potential trends for Bitcoin over the next six months. He emphasized that the on-chain momentum is currently flashing “start” signals. The detailed analysis, published on CryptoQuant.com, breaks down the scenarios as follows:

Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)

If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, key on-chain indicators like NUPL and MVRV could reflect a new upward impulse. In this case, Bitcoin price could reach the $150K–$175K range, mirroring the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.

Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)

If the Ratio stays within the 0.8–1.0 range, the market may continue in a sideways trend within a wide price corridor. In this scenario, the price is expected to range between $90K–$110K, with participants maintaining their positions but avoiding increased exposure.

Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)

If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders might begin taking profits, potentially triggering a price correction to the $70K–$85K range. However, Adler notes that a correction has already occurred, making this scenario less likely.

BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market

In 2025, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit 64%, reaching its highest levels of the year and significantly delaying altcoin recovery.

Between January and April 2025, Bitcoin dominance increased by 13%. During this period, the altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) dropped from $1.13 trillion to $817 billion, resulting in a $300 billion (~28%) decline.

Notably, altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery around the $200 billion support zone from 2024.

If the market repeats previous cycles, a breakout above the 50-week moving average (50WMA) could push altcoins toward the $500 billion resistance zone.

Additionally, in the past three months, a few altcoins outperformed BTC, including Fartcoin (+8%), PancakeSwap (CAKE, +2.8%), and Monero (XMR, +19%). During the same period, Bitcoin dropped by 10%.

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Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears Euphoric Levels

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost evaluates Bitcoin’s on-chain dynamics, focusing on the supply in profit. Specifically, the profit supply metric—the percentage of circulating Bitcoin valued higher than its purchase price—has surpassed 85%. This metric dropped to 75% during the recent correction but has rebounded with the price recovery. (Euphoria: A state of extreme optimism and excitement in the market, often associated with rapid price increases.) 

Historically, profit levels above 90% align with euphoric market phases. While this level has not yet been reached, the upward movement suggests euphoria. Darkfost notes that these phases often accelerate price increases but may lead to short-term pullbacks. Additionally, past cycles show the lowest profit supply at 45-50%, coinciding with bear markets. Thus, monitoring this metric is critical for identifying trend reversals. 

Related: PCE Inflation Report Could Trigger Crypto Market Surge 

Leverage Ratio and RSI: Market Aggression Declines

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Lion examines leverage ratio and RSI data. Notably, CryptoQuant’s proprietary metric, which multiplies RSI by the open interest-reserve ratio, analyzes speculative positioning. Crypto Lion observes that RSI fluctuations are higher compared to the summer of 2021. However, leverage dynamics indicate the market is not overheating. Moreover, the market is shifting away from aggressive leverage, trending toward organic, spot-driven growth. 

As Bitcoin’s supply in profit rises, its price climbs above $94,000. Investors are eyeing the $100,000 psychological resistance. On-chain data suggests the market is approaching euphoria, but reduced leverage points to a healthier uptrend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,551. 

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