Weakest Altcoin Performance of the Last 5 Years

According to the CryptoQuant report, the altcoin market is going through one of its weakest periods in the last five years. While Bitcoin and Ether have remained relatively strong, significant capital outflows have occurred from other altcoin projects. The report states that a total of $209 billion in net outflows has been recorded from the altcoin market over the past 13 months, clearly reflecting the decline in market confidence. Analysts say that most investors are moving away from riskier assets and shifting toward stronger and more liquid assets.

Another notable point in the report is the rapid increase in the number of altcoins in the market. Approximately five years ago, the total altcoin market capitalization reached $1 trillion. However, today, despite the number of altcoins increasing by nearly 70 times, the total market capitalization remains below that level. This suggests that although new projects continue entering the market, capital distribution has weakened and investor interest is not strong enough. Analysts state that rising supply combined with limited demand has been putting pressure on price performance.

Lack of Buyers in the Spot Market

CryptoQuant analysts point out that even during the 2022 bear market, buying pressure occasionally formed in the spot market. However, in the current period, there is a clear lack of buyers in major spot markets. According to experts, this is one of the most significant obstacles to a recovery in the altcoin market. Limited new capital inflows and the absence of strong buyers taking active positions are making upward price movements more difficult. Analysts emphasize that a stronger and more sustainable buying demand in the spot market is necessary for a lasting recovery.

“There is a complete lack of buyers in major spot markets right now.”

This statement highlights the weak capital flows and limited new entries into the market. Experts also stress that a technically risky structure has formed in altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies. Many altcoins are showing a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is generally considered a bearish technical formation. Although a limited short-term rebound is possible, analysts warn that it could be followed by a sharp wave of selling, potentially leading to new lows in the altcoin market.

Evaluation

CryptoQuant data reveals accelerating capital outflows and a noticeable weakening of investor interest in the altcoin market. Despite the rapid increase in the number of new projects entering the space, the total market capitalization remains under pressure, indicating that existing demand is insufficient to absorb growing supply. The lack of strong buyers in the spot market and weak technical indicators present a cautious outlook for altcoins. According to analysts, if this structure continues, the market is likely to face sharper price fluctuations and heightened volatility in the coming period.

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A Steeper Drop Compared to 2022

According to on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin slipped below its 365-day moving average in November and has since declined by roughly 23% in just 83 days. By contrast, during the early phase of the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin lost only about 6% over a comparable period. This divergence highlights how quickly selling pressure has accelerated in the current cycle.

CryptoQuant characterizes this performance as weaker than the opening phase of the previous bear market, suggesting that downside momentum is building at a faster pace than investors have seen in recent history.

Structural Weakness Becoming More Visible

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in early October, at a time when the Bull Score Index stood at a robust 80. However, following a major liquidation event on October 10, market conditions shifted abruptly. The Bull Score Index flipped into bearish territory and has since fallen to zero, while Bitcoin’s price dropped toward the $71,000 level.

Analysts interpret this combination as a sign of broad structural weakness. Several key support levels have been lost, increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin could drift into the $70,000–$60,000 range. Additionally, BTC has been rejected three times at the “Traders’ On-chain Realized Price,” an important support and resistance metric. More recently, price action slipped below the lower band of this indicator, which had previously acted as a floor during the bull phase.

Extreme Bearish Sentiment Across the Market

Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply. Data from Santiment shows that investor outlook toward both Bitcoin and Ethereum has turned deeply negative following the latest selloff. At the same time, Santiment notes that extreme retail pessimism can sometimes set the stage for short-term relief rallies, as markets often move against prevailing sentiment.

Glassnode paints a similarly cautious picture, describing a bear market marked by rising realized losses, weak spot demand, and the unwinding of leverage. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to around 12, reflecting widespread panic and risk aversion.

Broader Market Impact

Total crypto market capitalization has declined by 4.4% to approximately $2.53 trillion, the lowest level since April 2025. Bitcoin briefly fell below $71,000 during Asian trading hours, with analysts now watching the $65,000 region as the next major support. Ethereum has dropped under $2,100 and failed to stage a meaningful recovery, while most altcoins are trading roughly 80% below their peak levels.

Overall, the data suggests that this Bitcoin downturn stands out for its speed, severity, and structural fragility, with volatility likely to remain elevated in the near term.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Bitcoin Demand Persists Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Rising geopolitical tensions in global markets have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, with gold and silver prices hitting consecutive record highs. Despite this environment, Ki Young Ju emphasizes that institutional Bitcoin purchases are continuing steadily rather than weakening. Experts suggest that Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative has solidified its role in institutional portfolios.

Institutional Wallets Added 577,000 BTC in the Past Year

According to Ki Young Ju, U.S.-based institutional wallets, each holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have shown particularly significant accumulation. Miners and crypto exchanges are not included in this group, while institutional ETF purchases are included in the calculation.

Ki Young Ju explained:

“Institutional purchases of Bitcoin remain strong. U.S.-based institutional wallets hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Miners and exchanges are not included, but ETF purchases are. Since last year, approximately 577,000 BTC, worth about $53 billion, has been added to these wallets. Purchases are still ongoing.”

This indicates that institutional investors do not see short-term price volatility as a significant risk and view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset.

Crypto Treasury Companies Also Continue Accumulating

Institutional purchases are not limited to funds and ETFs. Crypto treasury companies are also accumulating Bitcoin, albeit with a more cautious, long-term strategy. Led by Strategy, these companies have acquired around 260,000 BTC since July to strengthen their balance sheets. This demonstrates that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a strategic reserve asset, not just a speculative investment, for companies.

According to Glassnode, the total Bitcoin held by these crypto treasury companies now exceeds 1.1 million BTC. This shows that a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is locked up by long-term investors. Analysts note that this could limit the amount of BTC available for circulation, helping maintain more controlled selling pressure during volatile periods.

Analysis

CryptoQuant’s data and Ki Young Ju’s statements indicate that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains steady despite overall market fluctuations. In an environment of rising geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty in traditional markets, the continued accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional investors serves as an important indicator for medium- and long-term price dynamics.

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Capital Inflows Lose Momentum

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, fresh capital flowing into Bitcoin has temporarily slowed. He notes that investor attention appears to be rotating back toward traditional markets, particularly equities and precious metals. The sharp appreciation seen in gold and silver prices supports the idea that risk appetite has shifted away from crypto in the short term.

This cooling of capital inflows does not necessarily imply an imminent market collapse. Instead, Ju believes Bitcoin is unlikely to experience the dramatic drawdowns seen after previous cycle peaks. His base-case scenario points toward a prolonged phase of sideways price action, with limited directional movement over the coming months.

A Break From Bitcoin Historical Patterns?

A flat first quarter in 2026 would mark a departure from Bitcoin’s historical performance. While January has typically produced modest returns, February and March have, on average, delivered much stronger gains in prior years. However, current macroeconomic uncertainty and changing investor preferences may override these seasonal tendencies.

Some market veterans are even entertaining more conservative downside scenarios. Experienced trader Peter Brandt, alongside Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Research Jurrien Timmer, has suggested that Bitcoin could retrace toward the $65,000 or even $60,000 range at some point this year.

Market Sentiment Remains Fragile

Investor psychology remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hovered in fear territory for an extended period, reflecting subdued confidence across the broader crypto market. Despite this, not all indicators point to weakness. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded notable net inflows in the early days of 2026, signaling that institutional interest is still present beneath the surface.

Diverging Views on the Long-Term Outlook on Bitcoin

While near-term expectations remain restrained, longer-term forecasts are far more optimistic. Venture capitalist Tim Draper believes 2026 could mark Bitcoin’s full transition into the financial mainstream. Meanwhile, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen argues that Bitcoin may break away from its traditional four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs, defying historical patterns.

Taken together, these perspectives suggest that Bitcoin’s early 2026 phase may be calm on the surface, yet strategically significant for what lies ahead.

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CryptoQuant Bitcoin Analysis: Demand is Weakening

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno stated, “If Bitcoin fails to hold above $100,000, the risk of a drop to $72,000 becomes more likely.” He attributes this primarily to the lack of recovery in demand after the record liquidation on October 10, where $20 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.

Capital outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, a negative Coinbase premium, and declining spot demand are reinforcing this downward pressure. Market sentiment has also deteriorated, with the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Score Index dropping to 20, signaling strong bearish momentum.

ETF data further reflects this weakness. As of November 4, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $577.74 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw $219.37 million in outflows. In contrast, Solana spot ETFs recorded $14.83 million in net inflows — their sixth consecutive day of positive movement. This indicates a shift from large-cap assets toward riskier alternatives.

How Far Could Bitcoin Fall?

Bitcoin has dropped more than 5.2% in the last 24 hours, trading around $100,800. The GMCI 30 Index declined over 9% in a single day, pointing to a broad risk-off sentiment in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick referred to the correction as “inevitable” but noted that Bitcoin could recover if macroeconomic conditions turn favorable.

Factors Increasing Market Pressure

• Fund outflows from crypto ETFs

• Negative Coinbase spot premium

• Global risk aversion and interest rate uncertainty

• Weak demand and long-term holders selling

Is the $72,000 Scenario Permanent?

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, highlighted rising volatility due to interest rate decisions, credit market stress, and equity valuations. However, despite the current drawdown, he emphasized that the long-term outlook for BTC remains intact.

Continued institutional adoption, strong ETF inflows throughout the year, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may end tightening could pave the way for new all-time highs. While $100,000 acts as a psychological support, Bitcoin’s long-term investment narrative remains unchanged.

Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Opportunity

If Bitcoin loses the $100,000 support zone, the risk of a move toward $72,000 strengthens. However, on-chain data, institutional demand, and liquidity indicators suggest that new highs remain possible in the medium to long term. While the current decline fuels fear, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin analysis clearly defines a strategic decision point for investors.

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Record Revenue Amid Bitcoin Rally

On May 27, MARA reported the highest daily revenue in its history. The milestone was confirmed via on-chain data from CryptoQuant, as Bitcoin surged days earlier due to macroeconomic instability, notably in Japan’s bond markets.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted, “Quarterly reports are slow. On-chain shows revenue in real time.”

BTC Holdings Top $5 Billion Despite Halving Impact

Despite a 19% drop in Bitcoin production due to the April 2024 halving, MARA’s treasury strategy remains aggressive. With 48,237 BTC now held on its balance sheet — valued at over $5.28 billion — MARA trails only Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in corporate Bitcoin holdings.

The company’s market cap currently stands at $5.18 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner globally.

Analysts: More Upside Possible

CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler commented that while daily mining revenues (~$50 million) are still below the historic $80 million peak, there’s potential to climb back to those highs.

MARA adopted Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve in July 2024, adding $124 million worth of BTC to its balance sheet, marking a key pivot in its financial strategy.

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What is the Stablecoin Ratio Channel? 

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and the supply of stablecoins. This ratio is used to assess market liquidity and investor risk appetite. The short-term version of the SRC is sensitive to sudden changes in Bitcoin’s price and indicates whether selling pressure is increasing. 

What Do Short-Term Indicators Say? 

According to Alphractal, the short-term version of the SRC currently signals increasing selling pressure. This coincides with Bitcoin facing strong resistance in the $113,000–$114,000 range. Investors appear to be shifting from BTC to stablecoins at these levels. 

Long-Term Outlook 

On the other hand, the long-term SRC indicator is only halfway through its cycle. In past market cycles, this level typically signaled healthy corrections in bull markets and selling pressure in bear markets. According to the long-term version of the SRC, Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bull cycle. The trend has not yet reached its peak. Therefore, Alphractal analysts interpret the current situation not as negative but as a potential reaccumulation phase. 

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has risen to 5.3. This means that BTC reserves on exchanges are five times higher than stablecoin reserves, suggesting that potential selling pressure may outweigh buying pressure. 

According to Alphractal’s analysis, there is increasing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). However, long-term indicators suggest we are still in the middle of a cycle, and these levels have historically signaled healthy corrections. 

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New Whales’ High Cost Basis 

Firstly, the cost basis of new Bitcoin whales is approximately $91,900. This reflects the average acquisition price of short-term holders (STH) who have purchased over 1,000 BTC ($103.3 million) in the last 155 days. In contrast, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) is much lower. This disparity shows that new whales are entering the market at high prices. Moreover, it suggests that new investors taking positions above the current Bitcoin price may face unrealized losses. However, the confidence of these whales in the market could also reflect a long-term bullish outlook. 

Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior 

Additionally, on-chain data provides important clues for understanding investor behavior in the Bitcoin market. The Realized Price indicator, which measures the average cost basis of investors, sheds light on the overall market condition. Currently, the high cost basis of short-term whales indicates new capital inflows into the market. This proves that interest in Bitcoin persists and new players are taking positions despite high prices. On the other hand, the low cost basis of long-term whales shows that they are in profitable positions and contribute to market stability. These dynamics create an important foundation for Bitcoin’s future price movements. 

Furthermore, analysts view Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100,000 positively. Investtech notes that the upward trend continues in the short and medium term, though a reaction may occur at the $105,500 resistance level. On-chain data reflects new capital inflows and whales’ confidence in the market. 

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Why Did Bitcoin Bull Expectations Change? 

Bitcoin’s price movements are generally tied to macroeconomic factors and investor behavior. The CryptoQuant CEO stated that he did not sufficiently consider these factors in his analyses. In particular, interest rates and global economic uncertainties impacted Bitcoin’s performance. This situation has led market analysts to adopt a more cautious approach. 

Ju explained, “Of course, the recent price movement is extremely bullish, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle.” 

What is CryptoQuant’s New Strategy? 

Ki Young Ju admitted his mistake and announced that he would adopt a new approach. He will now focus on more data-driven analyses. Additionally, he warned investors about short-term fluctuations. This strategy maintains confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. 

“Two months ago, I said the bull market was over, but that prediction was wrong. 

“Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs, as this new inflow can offset even strong whale selling,” he said. 

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically… pic.twitter.com/oN4n6vNc0s

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

The Bitcoin market still has a volatile structure. Experts recommend conducting thorough research before investing. CryptoQuant’s updated reports can serve as a guide in this process. However, the risks in the market should not be ignored. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,018.24. 

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s confession has reshaped Bitcoin bull cycle expectations. Therefore, it is critical for investors to follow updated analyses. Additionally, market uncertainties require strategic decision-making. 

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Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Warnings Draw Attention 

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), in its May 7, 2025 meeting, kept the interest rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted growing threats to economic growth and employment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference, stated, “Large tariff increases could slow the economy, prolong inflation, and increase job losses.” Powell’s remarks were interpreted as criticism of the Trump administration’s trade policies. 

The Fed’s decision to maintain rates heightened market uncertainty. Powell’s tariff warning prompted investors to adopt a cautious stance. Despite this, alternative assets like Bitcoin saw an upswing. 

President Donald Trump, on the same day, emphasized that tariffs on China would not be lifted. Although talks with Chinese officials were scheduled for the weekend in Switzerland, Trump showed no signs of compromise. This escalated global trade tensions. Trump stated, “Our trade policies will strengthen the U.S. economy,” reaffirming his commitment to his approach. 

U.S. stock markets experienced volatility following the Fed’s decision and tariff tensions. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. The Dow Jones gained 200 points, or 0.5%, driven by gains in banking stocks. However, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% due to losses in technology stocks. Notably, Alphabet dropped 6% amid rumors of a new AI-focused search engine. Apple also lost 1% in value. While banking stocks rallied, the technology sector underperformed due to tariff concerns. 

Bitcoin Surge and Profit-Taking 

Following the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin rose 2%, approaching $97,000. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin gained over 20% in the past week. CryptoQuant’s analysis indicated that investors accelerated profit-taking. Daily realized profits exceeded $1 billion, signaling an advanced stage of the bull market. 

CryptoQuant noted that high profit-taking could increase the risk of a pullback. However, if profit-taking slows, Bitcoin could enter a new upward trend. The Fed’s interest rate policies indirectly influence crypto markets. JPMorgan analysts predict that the Fed’s cautious stance may sustain volatility in crypto markets. 

Post-Fed Decision Outlook 

Powell warned that tariff increases could fuel inflation and slow growth. “We won’t rush into rate cuts,” Powell said, emphasizing a focus on economic data. Analysts predict the Fed could implement two rate cuts in 2025. However, Trump’s policies may alter these expectations. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential rate cut in June 2025, though tariff policies’ impact on inflation could delay this timeline. 

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