Lessons From Previous Market Cycles

Looking back at Bitcoin’s past, Cowen highlighted how severe the declines have been in earlier cycles:

• Around 94% during the first major cycle

• Roughly 87% in the second cycle

• About 77% in the most recent one

While this doesn’t guarantee that the next pullback will reach 70%, Cowen emphasizes that history is a reminder for investors to remain cautious.

From $250K to $75K?

Some Bitcoin proponents, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict that BTC could climb to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, if Cowen’s projection plays out, such a peak could be followed by a steep decline toward the $75,000 range.

Cowen explained that if Bitcoin surges strongly in Q4, he would likely lock in profits and move into stablecoins—potentially waiting until mid-2026 before re-entering the market.

Spotting the Market Top Won’t Be Easy

Cowen warned that a final rally could still be ahead, but pinpointing the exact top is nearly impossible:

“Everyone will be euphoric at the peak, and no one will say, ‘this is the top.’”

This sentiment highlights how quickly momentum can shift, often catching overconfident investors off guard.

Ethereum’s Brighter Outlook Toward Cycle End

While warning of a possible deep correction for Bitcoin, Cowen sees a more favorable setup for Ethereum (ETH) as the cycle matures.

He noted that ETH might underperform BTC in the short term but is likely to outshine Bitcoin toward the end of the cycle. The ETH/BTC ratio has already gained more than 8.5% over the past 30 days, reflecting growing strength.

What Other Experts Are Saying

Not all market watchers share Cowen’s cautious outlook. A range of industry leaders have put forward their own forecasts:

• Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO): Expects 2026 to be an up year for Bitcoin.

• Steven McClurg (Canary Capital CEO): Believes BTC could rise to the $140K–$150K range this year before a bear market arrives in 2026.

• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy Executive Chairman): Declared earlier this year that “crypto winter is not coming back.”

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