Tariff Levels

According to the agreement, the US will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods at 30%; China will keep tariffs on US products at 10%. This arrangement will be valid until August 12th. However, after this date, whether the tariffs will return to previous levels will depend on US President Donald Trump’s approval. Bessent stated that if Trump does not approve, tariffs will revert to their April 2nd levels or another level decided by Trump.

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Content of the Talks

During the talks in Stockholm, not only tariffs but also topics such as China’s investment restrictions on the US, fentanyl supply, and energy trade were discussed. Both sides expressed their willingness to maintain open communication and build a more balanced trade relationship.

Global Economic Impacts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the US’s wide-ranging tariffs have negatively impacted global economic growth and fueled inflation. However, a relaxation in some trade measures has raised the global GDP forecast for 2025 to 3%.

Although this agreement between the US and China has prevented the trade war from escalating further, the situation of tariffs after August 12th remains uncertain. Whether the tariffs will continue will be crucial not only for the two countries but also for the future of the global economy.

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• Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.

• If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.

• A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.

EU’s Strategic Approach

Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.

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Possible Scenarios

1. If a framework agreement is reached

   • A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.

   • A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.

2. If talks fail

   • The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.

   • The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.

In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.

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Trade Agreements and Customs Tariffs

Recently, Trump made statements about the future of trade negotiations with the European Union (EU). Trump pointed out the high customs duties and trade barriers between the US and the EU, stating that the chances of reaching an agreement with the EU were 50-50. He suggested that if the EU opens its market to American businesses, the US might reduce the customs duties on products coming from the EU. Otherwise, he threatened to impose a 30% additional customs tariff on goods imported from the EU. This could directly impact exports from EU countries. However, Donald Trump also mentioned that the negotiations are not yet completed and more developments could occur during the process.

On the other hand, Trump’s comments regarding the trade agreement with Japan are also noteworthy. The US and Japan’s trade deal includes Japan committing to invest $550 billion in America. Trump emphasized that this deal offers significant opportunities for economic growth. Japan is preparing to take important steps to make trade more balanced by making such investments in the US.

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Trade disputes with Canada have also caught Trump’s attention. He announced that the tariffs on goods from Canada will increase by 35% starting August 1, stating that this move was taken because Canada did not comply with the US’s trade demands. The Canadian government has indicated that it reserves the right to retaliate against this decision. This could lead to tensions in trade relations within North America.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Donald Trump reiterated that interest rates need to be lowered in his discussions with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump said that he got the impression that Powell might be ready to lower the rates and referred to him as “a very good man.” However, Powell’s term will end in May 2026, and Trump pointed out that there are legal obstacles to removing Powell from office. Powell has indicated that inflation remains above target, and reducing interest rates might be premature at this stage.

Donald Trump and the Global Economy

Donald Trump’s remarks seem poised to affect not only America’s domestic politics but also the global economic balance. The uncertainties in trade relations with the European Union, Japan, and Canada could fuel further trade wars around the world. The increase in customs tariffs could impact not only countries trading with the US but also the entire global trade chain.

Trump’s pressure on interest rate cuts creates a major question mark for global investors. These moves, aimed at accelerating the growth of the US economy, are creating a complex economic situation along with inflation rates and international trade pressures. How these developments will unfold is a subject of great anticipation in the coming period.

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Message on Interest Rate Decisions

Powell stated that the Fed will not rush to lower interest rates, saying, “We can wait for more clarity.” He mentioned that they expect inflation to reach 2%, but inflation expectations have risen due to the impact of tariffs.

Regarding the economy and labor market, Powell noted, “Many indicators show that the labor market is solid and balanced.” He also pointed out that significant progress has been made in reducing inflation, but there are signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. He emphasized that uncertainty remains regarding the impact of policies.

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One of the critical messages for the markets was, “Fed policy is not on a pre-determined path. If inflation progress halts, we may continue tight policies, but if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls, we could ease.” Powell also added, “We will look at the possibility of inflation exceeding our target in the medium term, and despite uncertainty, the U.S. economy is in a good position.”

Customs Tariffs and Inflation Expectations

The remarks on customs tariffs were particularly noteworthy. Powell said, “It is still very uncertain how long customs tariffs will be applied.” He also stated that there is no need to redefine price stability.

Crypto markets reacted sensitively to Powell‘s statements. The lack of a clear message regarding interest rate cuts affected the movements of major digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the coming days, as clarity on Fed policies emerges, more pronounced price movements may be observed in the markets.

In the coming days, market volatility may continue. It will be important for crypto investors to move cautiously during this period of uncertainty.

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