O’Leary pointed out that there is “a lot of inflation in the system.” The annual inflation rate in September reached 3%, the highest since January.

He added, “The Fed has a dual mandate: full employment and inflation. Tariffs are taking effect, and input costs are increasing.”

Market participants, however, have pushed the probability of a December rate cut to 88.1% according to CME FedWatch. Still, O’Leary said this scenario does not support Bitcoin. He believes Bitcoin currently shows no clear short-term direction, and Fed decisions have limited impact on the price.

O’Leary stated that Bitcoin has found a level for now and is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. Without a strong catalyst, he expects the price to move only within a 5% range. According to Binance, Bitcoin was trading around $93,200 at the time of the report.

“I think the price will drift within roughly 5% of its current level in either direction, but I don’t see a strong upside catalyst,” O’Leary added.

Volatile expectations ahead of December Fed meeting

Expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated sharply in recent weeks. On November 19, the probability of a rate cut dropped to 33%, while in the first week of November it was around 67%.

This shifted rapidly after New York Fed President John Williams said a rate cut could occur “in the near term.” Following his comments, the probability rose to 69.4% within two days.

Following the rate cuts in September and November, markets broadly expected the Fed to end the year with another easing step. However, O’Leary’s comments highlight that crypto investors should not rely too heavily on macro data when pricing Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains stable, while rate speculation continues to support volatility in the market. As noted, the next Fed meeting is scheduled for December 9, and the decision is expected to reshape market expectations.

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FOMC Interest Rate Decisions and Participant Views

During the meeting, the FOMC approved a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75–4.00%. However, the minutes revealed no clear consensus among participants regarding December.

Many participants considered it appropriate to maintain interest rates for the rest of the year. On the other hand, some officials noted that a December rate cut could be reasonable. Additionally, a few participants warned that sudden revisions to artificial intelligence expectations could trigger irregular declines in stock prices.

The minutes also addressed the balance sheet reduction program. Nearly all participants supported ending the reduction of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by December 1. This move affects a significant portion of the Fed’s roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet.

December Rate Cut Expectations

Views on a potential December rate cut were divided:

• Many officials saw no need for an additional cut.

• Some noted that if economic outcomes aligned with expectations, a December cut could be appropriate.

• The general tendency leaned toward keeping rates unchanged.

In line with this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a post-meeting press conference that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” He emphasized that participants expressed “very different” views on the most appropriate policy for the December meeting.

Economic Data and Decision-Making

The minutes showed that the 44-day federal government shutdown complicated data collection and decision-making. Key labor market and inflation reports were partially delayed or unavailable during this period. As a result, FOMC decisions were based on limited available data.

Participants expressed caution due to a slowing labor market and inflation not showing signs of a sustainable return to the Fed’s 2% target. The committee generally preferred that the Fed portfolio remain balanced with Treasury securities and mortgage-backed assets.

Overall, the FOMC minutes signal market skepticism toward an additional rate cut in December and highlight clear internal differences among officials. These developments provide important guidance for investors regarding interest rate policy and the Fed’s balance sheet.

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