Seasonal Trends Fail to Hold This Quarter

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s most impressive month, delivering average returns above 40% according to CoinGlass data. This year, however, the market is departing from its traditional playbook. October, which normally posts close to 20% average gains, ended with a 3.69% decline instead, raising doubts about whether seasonality still provides reliable guidance.

Bitfinex analysts highlight that the current quarter has defied historical trends almost entirely. Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 20% from the start of November, signaling a clear break from its typical performance pattern.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $87,300.

Short-Term Holders Are Adding Pressure

According to Bitfinex, a major factor behind the recent downside move is the excessive buying activity that took place between $106,000 and $118,000. Many of the investors who entered the market at these levels are now selling at a loss, creating additional downward pressure.

The analysts also point out that Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holders’ cost basis for only the third time since early 2024. CoinGlass estimates that short-term holders — those who have held BTC for less than 155 days — have an average realized price of approximately $86,787.

Whale Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

Despite the overall weakness, certain metrics indicate that accumulation may be picking up again among larger investors. Data shared by Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has increased by 0.47% since November 11, suggesting that whale interest is once more gaining momentum.

What to Expect in December?

Even if seasonal patterns have been unreliable this year, historical data still portrays December as a relatively calmer month for Bitcoin, with average returns of about 4.75% since 2013.

From this point forward, the market appears to be narrowing toward two possible scenarios: a resurgence in demand that stabilizes prices or an extended accumulation phase that could deepen before a broader recovery. Either way, the coming weeks are likely to be pivotal for market sentiment.

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Central Banks and Institutional Investors Drive Momentum

According to WGC data, despite price fluctuations, investor interest in gold remains robust. Central banks and large institutional players continue to increase their reserves, playing a crucial role in maintaining the metal’s upward momentum.

Experts note that this long-term accumulation trend further strengthens gold’s position as a strategic reserve asset in uncertain economic conditions.

Strong Liquidity and Market Depth Support Stability

Another key point in the report is the high liquidity in the gold market. Intraday sell-offs are quickly met with strong buy orders, ensuring balance and depth across trading sessions. This indicates that the market continues to operate in a healthy and efficient manner, supported by sustained investor confidence.

Gold Nears the $4,000 Milestone

Gold futures in the U.S. have recently tested the $4,000 per ounce level. Analysts attribute this performance to a mix of geopolitical tensions, central bank reserve strategies, and persistent inflation expectations.

Despite market volatility, gold continues to serve as a safe-haven asset, preserving its appeal for investors seeking protection against global uncertainty.

Crypto Markets Face Record Liquidations: $19.3 Billion Wiped Out

While gold demand strengthens, the crypto market is undergoing one of the largest liquidation events in its history. Over the past 24 hours, nearly $19.3 billion in open positions were wiped out, marking a massive correction across the digital asset space.

Analysts link this sharp downturn not only to macroeconomic and political tensions but also to overleveraged speculative trading that magnified market fragility.

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Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply

As Saylor highlighted, the supply of BTC is capped at 21 million coins. This is a unique feature that traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar or other fiat money simply do not have. In recent years, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have printed trillions of dollars to support the economy during and after the pandemic, while Bitcoin has remained scarce and predictable by design.

/ 21M

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) August 21, 2025

Bitcoin Mining and the Halving Cycle

Out of the 21 million BTC, 19,908,015 have already been mined. Every four years, the halving event takes place, cutting block rewards in half. This means the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation decreases by 50% each cycle. Currently, there are only 1,091,185 Bitcoins left to be mined.

According to Bitcoin historian and journalist Pete Rizzo, the very last Bitcoin block will be mined 79 years from now, on August 17, 2104. This emphasizes Bitcoin’s capped supply and its role as a potential long-term store of value in the digital economy.

Why It Matters

Bitcoin maximalists argue that this limited supply makes BTC far stronger compared to fiat currencies and provides long-term security for investors. With scarcity built into its code, BTC continues to stand out as a hedge against inflation and unlimited money printing.

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