Bitcoin Options Show Strong Focus on Max Pain

This week’s expiry comes slightly below last week’s $5.4 billion figure, yet current market conditions increase its impact. Bitcoin trades at $99,092 at the time of writing, bringing the price closer to critical options clusters and strengthening the pull toward max pain levels.

Deribit data shows a max pain level at $105,000, while the Put/Call ratio stands at 0.63. This ratio signals a bullish bias as traders lean more heavily on call positions. Open interest is concentrated at $95,000 and $100,000 puts, with significant call positioning at $108,000 and $111,000. Total open interest reaches 40,846 contracts, including 25,121 calls. This distribution reinforces the view that optimism remains alive in the Bitcoin options market.

Ethereum Options Maintain a Bullish Lean

Ethereum trades near $3,224 while its max pain level sits close to $3,500. The ETH options market shows a strong preference for call positions, with 142,333 call contracts out of a total open interest of 232,852. The Put/Call ratio stands at 0.64, reflecting continued bullish sentiment. The notional value of ETH options exceeds $730 million, highlighting the scale of today’s expiry.

Despite a more defensive price structure, traders continue to position for upward movement. The call-heavy positioning strengthens the expectation of a potential recovery if market volatility accelerates after the expiry window closes.

Macro Uncertainty Drives Higher Volatility Expectations

Today’s expiry lands amid heightened macro uncertainty. The United States recently ended a 43-day government shutdown, delaying key economic data and limiting the market’s ability to assess near-term fundamentals. The absence of the latest CPI release adds further uncertainty and complicates risk pricing. The upcoming December Federal Reserve decision also weighs on traders’ expectations.

Implied volatility has risen across major maturities, revealing traders’ anticipation of short-term swings. Block trades have become more active, and the short-term volatility curve shows increasing fragmentation. These signals highlight a broader divergence among market participants and underscore the possibility of sharp movements in BTC and ETH.

The market may stabilize after today’s expiry, yet price turbulence is likely until contracts settle. Traders should remain alert to moves toward the max pain zones, which could create short-term opportunities as the market adjusts to a new positioning landscape.

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Options Market Turns Sharply Bearish

Data from Deribit shows total open interest in Bitcoin options at 43,905 BTC, representing a notional value above $4.79 billion. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.83, signaling stronger demand for downside protection.

The max pain point — the strike level where most options expire worthless — sits near $116,000, suggesting traders expect limited short-term upside. According to Greeks.Live, short-term out-of-the-money (OTM) puts now account for roughly 28% of total options volume, reflecting the market’s strongest defensive stance since the October 11 pullback.

The options skew has turned deeply negative, highlighting aggressive hedging activity by market makers and liquidity providers. The shift underscores a growing sense of caution across digital asset markets as political volatility, tariff fears, and ETF discounts weigh on risk appetite.

Ethereum Under Pressure After Selini Capital Loss

Ethereum trades near $3,921, hovering below its max pain level of $4,100. Open interest stands at 251,884 ETH, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.81, mirroring Bitcoin’s defensive positioning.

Market sentiment weakened further following reports that Selini Capital suffered a $50 million loss tied to an unwind of a failed basis trade. The fund’s distress has shaken confidence in the derivatives market, with traders citing concerns over IBIT’s discount and limited catalysts for a near-term rebound.

Amid growing uncertainty, some participants are cautiously selling puts near perceived bottoms—a contrarian strategy aiming to profit from potential rebounds. However, Asian session flows remain predominantly bearish, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

Key Levels and Market Outlook

Analysts are watching $93,500 as a potential bottom and $100,000 as a short-term recovery zone for Bitcoin. Despite minor relief rallies, the broader narrative remains defensive, with traders prioritizing hedging and risk management over bullish exposure.

With options skew deeply negative across maturities and macro sentiment deteriorating, the next decisive move in crypto could still lean to the downside. Unless political turbulence eases or Selini’s liquidity issues stabilize, volatility is likely to persist into the coming weeks.

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According to data from Deribit, $21.097 billion in notional value across BTC and ETH contracts will roll off at 08:00 UTC. Analysts warn that rate cut signals, liquidity changes, and global risk sentiment could drive sharp price swings. 

Bitcoin Options Show Bullish Sentiment 

Bitcoin dominates with $16 billion in expiring options, representing the lion’s share of today’s activity. Open interest totals 146,224 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish expectations. 

The max pain level stands at $111,000, above the current price of $109,526. This suggests traders may attempt to push spot prices closer to that level as expiry passes, reflecting confidence despite recent pullbacks. 

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $22.3B in crypto options expire on Deribit; one of the biggest quarter-end expiries. $BTC: Notional: $17.06B | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $110K$ETH: Notional: $5.20B | Put/Call: 0.80 | Max Pain: $3,800

Q3’s largest… pic.twitter.com/FDT1tWomYH

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 25, 2025

Ethereum Struggles Below $4,000 

Ethereum accounts for $5.08 billion in notional value with 1.28 million contracts. Its put-to-call ratio is 0.86, showing a more cautious stance than Bitcoin. 

The max pain level of $3,800 sits close to ETH’s current price of $3,963, after dipping below the psychological $4,000 mark earlier this week. Options analytics firm Greeks.live warned that implied volatility skew shifted toward puts, highlighting increased downside risks. 

Market Outlook and Macro Factors 

This expiry dwarfs last week’s $4.3 billion in contracts, underscoring the magnitude of today’s event. As Q3 closes, the crypto market navigates: 

• Bitcoin’s steadier consolidation range 
• Ethereum’s fragile technical outlook 
• Central bank policy shifts and liquidity changes 

Analysts suggest volatility may ease over the weekend as traders reposition. However, given its scale, this expiry could set the tone for Q4, where many investors are already placing bullish bets. 

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Bitcoin’s max pain level stands at $108,000, while Ethereum’s is at $2,600. These price levels could act as gravitational zones as contracts settle. However, any price drop may be temporary, as markets often stabilize quickly after large expiries.  

BTC and ETH Options Show Balanced Market Sentiment  

Data from Deribit reveals that Bitcoin options expiring today hold a notional value of $4.3 billion, with 36,970 contracts open. The Put/Call ratio (PCR) stands at 1.06, indicating slightly more sell positions than buy ones.  

Ethereum options set to expire are worth $712.35 million, covering 239,926 contracts. ETH also shows a Put/Call ratio of 1.11, which reflects a cautious but not overly bearish market stance.  

For context, last week’s expiry on July 4 totaled $3.6 billion, with 27,384 BTC and 237,274 ETH contracts. Today’s figures mark a significant increase in notional value for both assets. Notably, both weeks shared Put/Call ratios above 1, showing that investors remain hedged or unsure about short-term market direction.  

Leverage Spikes as Risk Appetite Grows  

Analysts at Greeks.live report a lack of consensus on direction, with traders relying heavily on news-driven setups. The platform noted extremely risky trades, including 500x leveraged positions, being opened near current price levels.  

“Traders are taking massive risks with high-confidence setups,” Greeks.live noted. These strategies may offer outsized returns but also expose investors to sudden, steep losses.  

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,823, having set a new all-time high (ATH). Meanwhile, Ethereum stands at $3000, after a strong 7% intraday gain. Both are well above their respective max pain points.  

While a pullback toward these pain levels is possible as expiry approaches, a complete drop to $108K or $2,600 is unlikely. Still, short-term volatility could impact both retail and institutional strategies.  

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A Critical Day for Bitcoin and Ethereum Options 

According to Deribit exchange data, approximately 27,959 Bitcoin options contracts are reaching expiration today. The total nominal value of these contracts is around $2.9 billion. Another notable data point is Bitcoin’s max pain level set at $106,500, which represents the price point where option holders experience the greatest loss. 

Looking at the put-to-call ratio, Bitcoin stands at 0.91, indicating that investors still lean towards a bullish market sentiment. While some traders hold bearish positions, confidence in a price increase remains stronger. 

Put Options Dominate Ethereum 

On the other hand, the situation is different for Ethereum. Today, 246,849 Ethereum options contracts are expiring with a total nominal value of approximately $617.6 million. The max pain point for Ethereum is set at $2,650. Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio has reached a significant 1.14, showing that put options are more favored than calls, and investors are seeking greater protection against downside risks. 

Geopolitical Developments and Increased Volatility 

The timing of these option expirations is not coincidental. The Israel-Iran tensions in the Middle East have shaken investor confidence. Notably, implied volatility for Ethereum has shown a marked increase, suggesting potential sharp price movements in the coming days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility remains relatively stable, implying a more steady short-term outlook for BTC.

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Surging Demand for $110K Strike Options

In a recent update shared on X, Deribit highlighted strong buying activity in call options at the $110,000 strike set to expire in June and July. Additionally, there has been notable interest in calendar spread strategies, involving long positions on $140,000 strike calls maturing in late September and short positions on $170,000 calls expiring by the end of the year.

Such flows suggest that investors are anticipating further gains for BTC in the weeks ahead. Call options give the holder the right to purchase the asset at a fixed price before a certain date, and are generally viewed as a bullish bet on the market.

Expiry Rollovers Show Continued Confidence

Deribit also noted a rollover of long positions from May expirations to July expirations, particularly around the $110,000 to $115,000 strike levels. This shift in positioning reflects an expectation of extended upside potential into the summer.

Is a BTC and ETH Breakout Brewing?

Bitcoin climbed above $104,000 on Thursday, marking a nearly 40% rebound from early April lows below $75,000. The rally has been fueled by positive sentiment around the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement and continued inflows into spot ETFs. Technical indicators continue to support a bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has jumped over 30% in just two days, reaching $2,411. The move is being interpreted as a bullish breakout on technical charts. On Deribit, there’s increasing demand for June expiry calls at the $2,400 level, as well as longer-dated call spreads targeting the $2,600–$2,800 range.

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