This expiry is crucial, highlighting market fragility and potential end-of-cycle signals. Analysts urge caution around BTC $100,000 and ETH $3,500–$3,800 levels.

Bitcoin Options Show Cautious Optimism

Bitcoin options display cautious optimism after recent declines below $100,000. Deribit data shows a maximum pain point at $107,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.79.

Open interest is concentrated around $100,000 puts and $120,000–$125,000 calls. Total open contracts are 45,802 with a nominal value exceeding $4.6 billion. This concentration indicates that traders are expecting a decisive market move and actively hedging as expiry approaches.

Ethereum’s Defensive Position Remains Key

Ethereum options trade at $3,347, maintaining a defensive stance. Open interest focuses on $3,500 puts and $4,200 calls, with a put/call ratio of approximately 0.9 and a nominal value of $716.85 million.

Traders employ calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, and straddles to maintain upside exposure while hedging against downside risk. Movements near critical levels may test the effectiveness of short-term volatility strategies.

End-of-Cycle Risks and Market Fragility

Analysts at Greeks.live warn of end-of-cycle risks. BTC levels of $105,000, $102,000, and $97,000, along with ETH at $3,650 and $3,400, drive debate about potential drops or continued volatility.

Nevertheless, many traders continue to sell options aggressively, betting on short-term volatility. Even small price moves can significantly impact settlement results. Macroeconomic factors, including CPI data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, have slowed ETF inflows, yet overall open interest remains high.

As the $5.4 billion options expire, the next few hours will test whether traders’ short-term strategies pay off or if market fragility leads to sharp moves.

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As volatility rises, traders are focusing on “max pain” levels. According to Deribit, this expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event. The rollover of October contracts may increase liquidity and trigger short-term price movements.

Bitcoin Price Faces Max Pain Pressure

Bitcoin trades at $109,287 at the time of writing. During this expiry, 124,171 contracts, approximately $13.59 billion, will close. The max pain level sits at $114,000, the point where option holders experience maximum losses. Historically, BTC tends to move toward these levels as expiry approaches, reflecting market makers’ hedging activity.

Data shows a put-to-call ratio of 0.70, indicating a mild bullish bias. However, Greeks.live analysts warn that the market remains “fragile and bidless” after recent liquidations.

Key support levels lie at $112,000 and the CME gap between $110,000–$111,000. Resistance exists between $116,000–$118,000. If support breaks, $106,000 could trigger roughly a 3% correction.

Open interest has dropped from 100,000 to 70,000 contracts over the past month, suggesting waning trader participation and profit-taking.

Ethereum Shows Cautious Bullish Outlook

Ethereum trades at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts worth $2.49 billion expiring today. The max pain level is $4,100, slightly above the current price. Deribit data shows 381,462 call contracts surpassing 265,440 put contracts, signaling that traders hedge against upside while remaining cautious.

The put-to-call ratio of 0.70 reflects limited optimism. Deribit analysts note that easing U.S.-China trade tensions and improving macro conditions increase short-term upside risk.

Meanwhile, Greeks.live highlights that buyers remain weak and downside risk persists.

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Record Volumes on Deribit

Deribit leads the crypto options market in both trading volume and open interest. The platform currently holds approximately $59 billion in open interest. Over the past year, Deribit facilitated over $1 trillion in total trading, reaching a record $185 billion in monthly volume in July 2025.

Coinbase Expands Derivatives Offering

With this acquisition, Coinbase moves closer to offering a full spectrum of trading products—spot, futures, perpetuals, and options—on a single platform. Expanding the product range also enables greater global participation and deeper liquidity.

Perfect Timing for the Market

Coming at a time of rapidly growing institutional interest in the crypto options market, this deal positions Coinbase to lead the next wave of innovation. Deribit’s fast, capital-efficient, and battle-tested infrastructure serves as a strong complement to Coinbase’s expanding derivatives business.

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• As of May 2025, the Bitcoin options market has reached $42.5 billion in open interest. 

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $110,000 level in May 2025, reaching one of its all-time highs. According to Glassnode data, the “Accumulation Trend Score” metric rose to 1.0. This indicates that investors are in a buying trend. Both large and small wallet groups are accumulating BTC. This metric evaluates purchases within the last 15 days, excluding exchange and miner wallets. 

The rise in Bitcoin’s price is also supported by stablecoin regulations in the U.S. and institutional purchases. For example, MicroStrategy’s $765 million BTC investment shows continued institutional interest. Additionally, global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns are driving investors toward Bitcoin. In May, inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) accelerated. This week, there was over $2.5 billion in fund flows in markets where traders use excessive leverage. This development demonstrates institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin while also providing balance against market volatility. 

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) surpassed $80 billion as of May 23. This represents about a 30% increase since early May. This increase indicates that derivative traders are taking positions with leverage, expecting BTC prices to rise further. 

According to Deribit data, open interest in the Bitcoin options market reached $42.5 billion as of May 22. This is a record high for the options market. The highest open interests are in the call options expiring on June 27 with strike prices of $110,000, $120,000, and $300,000. The upward expectation is clear in the options markets as well. Demand for June call options at $200,000 and $300,000 strike prices is notable. This indicates that traders expect further BTC price increases. 

May Bitcoin options expire on May 30, while June options expire on June 27. On these dates, contracts will close, increasing market volume and price volatility. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE  

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Deribit Options Expiry and Critical Levels  

Deribit is a leader in the crypto derivatives market. Tomorrow’s expiry includes $2.66 billion in Bitcoin and $525 million in Ethereum options. Bitcoin’s maximum pain point (max pain) is at $100,000. This level indicates the price at which investors would incur the most losses. The max pain level is the price at which the highest number of call and put options would expire worthless, and the market often drifts toward this point. For Ethereum, the maximum pain point is $2,200. As a result, prices may gravitate toward these levels. Traders are adjusting their positions accordingly. Analysts note that such large options expiries typically cause short-term price volatility.  

Bitcoin’s Put/Call ratio is 0.99, indicating a nearly neutral sentiment. This suggests investors are undecided between bullish and bearish expectations. However, Ethereum’s Put/Call ratio is 1.24, signaling that investors anticipate a price decline and are acting cautiously. ETH traders are more conservative than BTC traders, hedging against downside risks. Historical data shows that such major expiry dates lead to 5-7% price volatility in 60% of cases. Investors should remain vigilant, especially heading into the weekend.  

Options Expiry Alert

Tomorrow 08:00 UTC: Over $3.1B in BTC & ETH options expire on Deribit.$BTC: $2.66B notional | Put/Call: 0.99 | Max Pain: $100K
$ETH: $525M notional | Put/Call: 1.24 | Max Pain: $2,200

BTC skew is neutral, ETH puts slightly outweigh calls. Price… pic.twitter.com/jBj4C4tMvX

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 15, 2025

Additionally, large expiries trigger market fluctuations. Maximum pain points highlight prices where most contracts would expire worthless. Investors closely monitor these levels. Institutional players may solidify their positions during the expiry. Macroeconomic news or regulatory developments could further impact volatility.  

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Deal Details Confirmed

The deal, expected to be announced on Thursday, consists of $700 million in cash and 11 million Coinbase Class A shares. This acquisition will significantly expand Coinbase’s derivatives offerings, particularly in the booming crypto options segment where Deribit currently leads.

What Happened Before the Deal?

Earlier in March 2024, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase had entered advanced negotiations to acquire Deribit. At the time, the deal was expected to value Deribit at between $4 billion and $5 billion. Coinbase and Deribit had also reportedly informed regulators in Dubai, where Deribit holds a license, that the companies were in talks. In the event of a completed acquisition, Deribit’s Dubai license would be transferred to Coinbase.

Deribit is known for offering options, futures, and spot trading, and had a total trading volume of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2023. This highlights the platform’s critical role in the crypto derivatives space.

Growing Competition in the Crypto Derivatives Sector

Crypto derivatives — particularly futures and options — are gaining significant traction, especially in the U.S. In December 2024, Coinbase announced that its annual derivatives trading volume had increased by 10,950%. The platform currently lists 92 derivatives products tied to various assets on its international exchange, while offering a more limited selection in the U.S. due to regulatory constraints.

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s competitors have also made strategic moves. Kraken announced in March that it planned to acquire NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, expanding its own derivatives presence. Robinhood entered the crypto futures market in January, and CME Group reported $10 billion in average daily crypto derivatives trading volume in Q4 2024 — a more than 300% year-over-year increase.

Coinbase’s Push for Market Leadership

Coinbase has recently ramped up its derivatives offerings. In February, it launched CFTC-approved Solana (SOL) futures in the U.S., followed by CME Group’s own SOL futures in March. The acquisition of Deribit now positions Coinbase not just as a strong player in crypto futures, but also as a potential leader in crypto options trading.

This acquisition signals more than just expansion — it highlights Coinbase’s ambition to dominate the global crypto derivatives landscape, and reflects the accelerating institutionalization of the crypto market.

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Headquartered in Dubai, Deribit processed a staggering $1.3 trillion in trading volume last year, cementing its role as a major player in the derivatives space. The company’s potential U.S. expansion is drawing further attention due to rumors surrounding a possible acquisition by major exchange Coinbase.

According to reports from March, both firms have already informed Dubai regulators about a possible deal. If finalized, Deribit’s operational license would be transferred to Coinbase.

Global Crypto Giants Turning Toward the U.S.

Deribit isn’t alone in its ambitions. A growing number of European and Asian crypto companies are once again eyeing the U.S. market.

This shift follows a period of intense regulatory pressure that began after the collapse of FTX in late 2022. During that time, enforcement actions from the SEC and Department of Justice pushed many firms to withdraw from the U.S.

Now, with Donald Trump’s administration taking over, industry sentiment appears to be changing. Trump’s pledge to “make America the global capital of crypto” has sparked optimism. Since the election, multiple crypto-related enforcement actions have reportedly been paused or dropped altogether. In a significant move, the DOJ has also shut down certain crypto-specific enforcement units.

A New Wave of Entrants

One company quick to act on the changing tide is OKX, which recently announced plans to open a U.S. headquarters in San Jose, California. This decision follows a major $504 million settlement with American regulators.

Likewise, Nexo, which exited the U.S. at the end of 2022 citing regulatory uncertainty, has confirmed its return to the market as of April 28.

Other industry leaders, including Switzerland-based Wintermute and Dubai’s DWF Labs, are also exploring entry into the U.S., signaling a broader shift in global crypto strategy.

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Coinbase in Advanced Talks to Acquire Deribit

Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit. According to a March 21 report from Bloomberg, if the deal goes through, it would significantly strengthen Coinbase’s existing derivatives platform. Currently focused primarily on futures, Coinbase could become a leader in Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading by acquiring Deribit.

According to Bloomberg, Coinbase and Deribit have informed regulators in Dubai about the ongoing discussions. Deribit, which holds a license in Dubai, would need to transfer this license to Coinbase if the deal is finalized.

In January, Bloomberg reported that a potential deal could value Deribit between $4 billion and $5 billion. Deribit offers options, futures, and spot cryptocurrency trading. In 2023, its total trading volume reached approximately $1.2 trillion.

On March 20, competitor exchange Kraken announced plans to acquire NinjaTrader, a derivatives trading platform, for around $1.5 billion.

Crypto Derivatives Market Rapidly Growing

Cryptocurrency derivatives, such as futures and options, are gaining increasing popularity, especially in the U.S. Futures allow traders to buy or sell assets at a fixed price in the future, while options give traders the right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price.

These derivative products are widely used by both retail and institutional investors for hedging and speculation purposes.

In December 2024, Coinbase reported that derivatives trading volumes surged by approximately 10,950% year-over-year. Coinbase lists derivatives tied to 92 different assets on its international exchange and offers a smaller number in the U.S..

In January, Robinhood launched cryptocurrency futures, increasing its competition with Coinbase.

In February, the world’s largest derivatives exchange, CME Group, announced an average daily trading volume of approximately $10 billion in crypto derivatives for the fourth quarter of 2024, marking an increase of over 300% compared to the previous year.

In February, Coinbase launched the first CFTC-regulated Solana futures in the U.S. and, in March, CME Group launched its own SOL futures contracts.

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StablR operates two stablecoin projects: the euro-backed StablR Euro (EURR) and the U.S. dollar-backed StablR USD (USDR). Both stablecoins can be transferred using Tether’s tokenization platform Hadron, supporting Ethereum and Solana wallets.

European Stablecoin Market

The European stablecoin market has experienced significant growth ahead of the full implementation of the MiCA regulations on December 30. According to Crypto.com data, euro-backed stablecoins have a total market capitalization of $367 million. Leading the market are Stasis Euro (EURS) and Euro Coin (EURC), while EURR holds just a 1% market share.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino emphasized the rapid evolution of the European stablecoin market and its potential for further growth. He highlighted Tether’s support for StablR as a way to promote compliance, innovation, and accessibility in the region.

StablR’s Market Position

Currently, StablR Euro (EURR) has a market capitalization of $3.4 million, with its total supply standing at 5.7 million euros ($5.9 million). StablR’s US dollar stablecoin USDR has not yet been listed on major data platforms.

Founded in 2023, StablR raised €3.3 million in seed funding from notable investors, including crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, Theta Capital, and Folkvang. In July, StablR acquired its Electronic Money Institution license, allowing it to issue fully MiCA-compliant stablecoins.

Following this announcement, major crypto exchange Coinbase delisted USDT due to MiCA regulations. In November, Tether had also suspended its euro-backed stablecoin EURt.

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Deribit FZE, the Dubai-based entity of the Deribit group, has become the first crypto derivatives exchange to obtain regulatory approval from Dubai’s VARA, according to an announcement on April 2. This milestone is significant for both the company and the broader crypto community.

The VASP license for virtual asset exchange services is conditional, subject to meeting specific requirements and obtaining operational approval. It covers both spot and derivatives trading, with the official launch pending completion of the final formalities and full approval from VARA.

Additionally, Deribit is moving its global headquarters to Dubai, UAE, where it will offer crypto services to institutional and qualified investors upon commencing corporate operations. Meanwhile, the exchange will continue serving retail investors through a broker affiliate based in Panama, which is a member of Deribit FZE in Dubai until further notice.

Luuk Strijers, the current chief commercial officer, has been promoted to the role of CEO at Deribit. Dennis Dijkstra, former CEO of Flow Traders, and industry veteran Willem Meijer will join the company as non-executive directors, providing guidance on long-term growth strategy.

“VARA’s forward-thinking regulatory framework presents significant opportunities in the digital asset space. Our leadership in the crypto options market underscores the trust our clients have in us,” commented Luuk Strijers.

Expansion of Crypto Companies in Dubai, UAE

Since the establishment of VARA, the world’s first independent crypto regulator, in March 2022, Dubai has experienced a surge in crypto adoption. Major exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX have expanded their operations to the city.

Dubai has emerged as a prominent destination for the global crypto market, thanks to its crypto-friendly regulations and seamless trading environment. The vibrant city is set to host the Blockchain Life Forum 2024, a significant event for the crypto community, scheduled for April 15-16.

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