Available open-source information does not verify a marketwide short bet. Public reports suggest that an investor believed to be close to Trump took large short positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, reportedly generating significant profits thanks to exceptional timing. Yet none of these sources — including Yahoo Finance — confirm positions spanning equities or commodities.

In fact, during another move in October 2025, the trader allegedly opened billion-dollar short positions just 30 minutes before Bitcoin crashed from $122,000 to $102,000, reportedly earning around $200 million. That timing sparked a familiar question among analysts: Did someone know something in advance?

In other words: BTC and ETH trades are being discussed — but there’s no evidence supporting the claim of a “$150 million bet against the entire market.”

Why Do BTC and ETH Shorts Matter?

Heavy downside positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum can tighten liquidity, especially in derivatives markets. This can lead to:

• widening spreads

• distorted funding rates

• cascading liquidations of leveraged positions

Because crypto assets move with high correlation, even a single large short wave can quickly spill over into other markets.

Insider trading allegations form a separate layer of concern. If trades were truly placed using non-public information, the impact could extend from token prices to options positioning. In such a scenario, regulatory penalties, fines, and trading restrictions could follow.

For investors, the key is separating rumor from verified positioning. The phrase “Trump insider trader” currently has no legal standing — it functions more as a media shorthand than a confirmed designation.

Where Verification Breaks Down: On-Chain Data and Official Records

To definitively attribute trades to a specific individual, the following evidence is typically required:

• wallet clustering and transfer paths

• links to known addresses

• exchange position histories

• margin records and liquidation logs

So far, none of this technical matching has been publicly released.

Some market commentators have pointed to timing patterns and raised the question of prior knowledge. The Kobeissi Letter is among those highlighting this possibility.

However, there is no official statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) addressing this specific claim. Silence does not confirm or deny an investigation — it simply means no verified documentation exists at this stage.

How Should Investors Evaluate This Without Falling Into Speculation?

A basic verification checklist helps:

• Which instruments? (BTC, ETH, or others?)

• Position size and leverage

• Entry and exit timing

• Realized profit

• Technical proof of ownership

Without clarity on these points, drawing definitive conclusions is premature.

At this point, two key claims remain unproven:

• That the $150 million position covered the entire market

• That the trader has a verified connection to Donald Trump

Neither is confirmed in current reporting.

Quick Q&A

Is there official proof linking the trader to Trump?
No. Media outlets use this framing for narrative simplicity. Regulators have provided no verified connection.

Have BTC and ETH shorts been confirmed via on-chain or exchange data?
Reports reference large BTC/ETH shorts and accurate timing, but no public wallet addresses or exchange accounts have been disclosed.

Bottom line: there are notable BTC and ETH trades. But the claim that a “Trump-linked trader shorted the entire market for $150 million” remains unverified — a strong allegation, not an established fact. Following confirmed data matters more than headline momentum.

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At first glance, the move resembles a standard bearish continuation. However, when participation, holder behavior, and derivatives positioning are examined together, the picture becomes far less straightforward. The sell-off appears driven more by disappearing spot interest than by panic liquidation.

Spot Participation Faded Before Price Did

The weakness began with activity rather than price. On January 6, Cardano’s decentralized exchange spot volume peaked near $1.49 million, coinciding with ADA’s highest price level of the year so far. From that point onward, both price and participation rolled over simultaneously.

By January 22, spot volume had fallen to roughly $68,000, marking a collapse of more than 95% in just over two weeks. Because this data reflects on-chain spot trades rather than leveraged positions, it points directly to retail traders stepping away from the market.

This drop in activity aligned closely with a technical shift. ADA slipped below its 20-day exponential moving average in mid-January. That level defines short-term trend direction, and in Cardano’s history, losing it has repeatedly triggered sharp corrective phases.

This time, spot demand failed to recover. With fewer organic buyers willing to step in, price slid more easily, opening the door for aggressive bearish positioning.

Whales Accumulated Into Visible Weakness

While retail participation faded, large holders moved in the opposite direction. Addresses holding more than one billion ADA began accumulating around January 14, even as price momentum remained negative. Their combined holdings rose by roughly one billion ADA during the correction, representing more than $350 million accumulated into weakness.

A second cohort followed shortly after. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA added to their positions starting January 17, the same day ADA definitively lost its 20-day EMA. The timing is critical. These buyers did not chase strength. They stepped in after the trend broke and after spot interest collapsed.

That behavior suggests deliberate positioning during visible weakness rather than reactive momentum trading.

Derivatives Turned Heavily Bearish

As spot liquidity dried up, derivatives traders leaned aggressively to the short side. The loss of trend support and collapsing volume made the bearish narrative appear straightforward. As a result, short positions crowded into perpetual futures.

On Binance, ADA is now strongly short-biased, with short liquidation exposure roughly 2.5 times larger than long exposure. Total short leverage stands above $22 million. This imbalance matters because even modest buying pressure can force rapid position closures.

When spot traders leave and shorts pile in, price becomes increasingly sensitive to small shifts in demand.

Key Levels That Decide the Next Move

On the 12-hour chart, Cardano broke down from a head-and-shoulders structure around January 20, triggering the final wave of spot selling and encouraging additional short exposure. However, momentum no longer confirms continued downside.

The Money Flow Index has begun turning higher while price holds near recent lows. As MFI breaks its descending trend, it suggests dip buying rather than panic selling. That shift leaves short positions increasingly exposed if spot demand returns.

Short liquidation pressure begins near $0.37. A move above that level would start forcing closures, while strength above $0.39 could accelerate liquidations. A push toward $0.42 would place most near-term short exposure at risk.

The bearish scenario regains full control only if ADA breaks and holds below $0.34. Sustained trading under that level would invalidate the stabilization thesis and reopen downside risk toward prior lows.

Until then, Cardano remains caught between fading retail participation and growing whale conviction. Spot traders may have stepped aside, but positioning beneath the surface suggests the move is not finished yet.

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Bullish Trend and Institutional Positions in Bitcoin

Bitcoin options dominate the market with a total value of approximately $1.87 billion. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,972, just above the max pain level of $88,000. Open interest shows 14,194 call contracts versus 6,806 put contracts, totaling 21,001 contracts and a put-call ratio of 0.48.

Institutional activity in block trades accounts for 36.4% of call contracts and 24.9% of puts. This indicates that the market is positioned more for upward expectations rather than short-term hedging. Option volume is particularly concentrated in the March and June 2026 maturities.

Cautious Optimism in Ethereum

Ethereum options have a total notional value of approximately $395.7 million. ETH is trading around $3,023, slightly above the max pain level of $2,950. Open interest includes 80,957 calls versus 49,998 puts, totaling 130,955 contracts with a put-call ratio of 0.62.

In addition, call contracts account for 73.7% of Ethereum block trade volume. This suggests that investors are taking strategic, longer-term positions rather than short-term speculative bets. Options remain active across quarterly maturities throughout the year, signaling an expectation of broader upward movement.

Expiry Risks and Volatility Outlook

Option expiries typically trigger market fluctuations. As contracts close, investors must either exercise positions or let them lapse, which often aligns prices near max pain levels and reduces payout obligations for option sellers.

High concentration of expiring contracts can weaken price stability. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices stray from key levels, volatility may rise. Bullish momentum appears strong. However, as investors roll positions and reassess risk, short-term pressure may occur. Bitcoin’s high call contracts and Ethereum’s heavy block trade calls suggest that upward movement could gain speed.

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Bitcoin open positions fall as market reduces risk

Bitcoin open interest has undergone a significant cleansing process amid recent volatility. Futures trading volume has slowed considerably, while liquidations have cleared the market of excessively risky positions. Additionally, traders are reducing leverage, indicating that aggressive appetite in the derivatives market has temporarily diminished. Historically, such periods often preceded strong market bottoms.

“Historically, these cleansing phases have often been essential to forming a solid bottom and setting the stage for a renewed bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closures of overly optimistic positions, and a gradual decline in speculative exposure help rebalance the market.”

Darkfost noted that the last time Bitcoin open interest fell so quickly over 30 days was during the 2022 bear market, highlighting the significance of the current market cleanup.

Why the market entered a cleansing phase

BTC’s pullback is not only a technical correction but also reflects weakening global risk appetite. Slower ETF flows and panic among short-term traders have accelerated this process. On-chain data shows an increase in large wallet movements, suggesting that mid- and long-term investors are viewing the retracement as a buying opportunity. This dynamic could help restore market balance.

Critical price ranges: Where could the rally be triggered?

Bitcoin’s price can quickly shift market sentiment at certain thresholds, laying the groundwork for new trends.

• $88,000–$90,000: Key buying zone
• Above $94,000: Breakout area where momentum strengthens
• $82,000–$84,000: Support band for reactionary purchases

In addition, rising volatility makes volume distribution in these zones increasingly decisive. With derivatives market activity weakening, spot demand may dominate, leading to sharper price reactions.

Could a new Bitcoin rally happen?

Experts believe that the rapid unwinding of open positions indicates the market has shed overheated leverage levels. If spot buyers regain strength, Bitcoin could quickly gain upward momentum. Furthermore, liquidity accumulated around psychological price levels may accelerate upward moves, allowing BTC to approach key breakout zones again.

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Historic Drop in Funding Rates: Leverage Reset

On-chain analytics platform Glassnode reported that crypto derivatives funding rates have reached a three-year low. Experts describe this as “one of the most aggressive leverage cleanups in crypto history.”

Funding rates balance long and short positions among traders in futures contracts. When rates turn negative, traders take more short positions, but this scenario can create opportunities for a rapid price rebound if markets move upward.

Short Position Pressure Could Trigger a Rally

Extremely low funding rates increase the risk of a short squeeze. When many traders open short positions expecting price drops, the market can spike sharply upward.

CoinGlass data shows the long/short ratio has shifted toward bullish sentiment. Around 54% of participants hold long positions, while 29% maintain short positions. Long positions account for 60% of total holdings.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded over 5% after dropping below $110,000 in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) gained 12%, climbing from $3,800 to $4,183. This recovery has boosted short-term investor confidence in crypto markets.

Historic Liquidation Wave: Crypto Black Friday

Trading platform TradingView labeled the recent event as “the largest leveraged liquidation in crypto history.” After former U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China, whales increased short positions.

About 1.6 million leveraged traders were liquidated, causing a $1 trillion market value drop in just a few hours. Kobeissi Letter reported Bitcoin’s first-ever $20,000 red candle and a $380 billion decline in market capitalization. As short positions closed, the market formed a V-shaped recovery, showing how clearing excessive leverage can create healthier market conditions.

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$4.5 Billion Options Expiry Could Shake the Market 

Today, $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire. On Deribit, $3.52 billion in 30,000 BTC options will mature. The put-call ratio stands at 1.23, signaling that traders have increased bearish bets after the recent rally. 

Over the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio dropped to 0.77. Call volume exceeded 22,300 compared to 17,250 puts, showing cautious sentiment among investors ahead of expiry. 

Max Pain Price for Bitcoin Stands at $114,000 

Deribit data shows Bitcoin’s maximum pain price at $114,000. Traders may attempt to pull BTC toward this level, while heavy put options remain concentrated between $100,000 and $108,000. 

On the Ethereum side, more than 177,000 contracts worth $0.8 billion will expire. The put-call ratio is at 1, with a max pain price of $4,500, creating downward pressure on ETH as well. 

• BTC max pain: $114,000 
• BTC key support: $115,200 
• BTC downside target: $105,500 
• ETH max pain: $4,500 

Glassnode: Downside Risk to $105,500 Intensifies 

Glassnode data reveals that 95% of BTC holders are currently in profit, raising the risk of profit-taking. Open interest in Bitcoin options has surged to a record 500,000 BTC. 

The market is also entering a “triple witching” phase, as weekly, monthly, and quarterly expiries overlap, concentrating flows and liquidity. Unless bulls defend $115,200, Bitcoin could decline toward $105,500. 

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According to crypto analyst Arab Chain, Binance reinforced its dominance in the global derivatives market. The return of hedge funds and institutional investors played a key role in this growth. Both long and short positions increased significantly, indicating not only liquidations but also the creation of new positions. In other words, fresh participants entered the market at scale. 

However, some analysts remain cautious about the sharp rise. Arab Chain warned that such momentum often precedes a correction. Still, support from spot markets and stablecoin reserves will be crucial for sustaining futures activity. 

Stablecoin Growth Fuels Market Liquidity 

The expansion of futures trading requires liquidity from spot markets. At this stage, stablecoin growth has become an essential driver. On August 1, the global stablecoin market cap stood at $276.2 billion. By the end of the month, it had risen 7.38%. 

In early September, the market cap added another 0.65%, reaching $298 billion. This steady inflow provided much-needed liquidity to the derivatives market. As a result, futures momentum gained solid ground. 

Meanwhile, analysts underline that stablecoin inflows will remain the key factor for sustainable growth. Ultimately, if capital inflows continue at this pace, a derivatives-led bull run could be on the horizon. 

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Significant Decline in Bitcoin Futures!

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed in its March 17 “Quicktake” blog post that Bitcoin futures markets have undergone a significant deleveraging event. According to the report, aggregate open interest (OI) dropped by $10 billion between February 20 and March 4.

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Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest had reached an all-time high of $33 billion on January 17, marking unprecedented levels of market leverage. However, following this peak, a sharp decline in risk appetite and the reduction of leveraged positions led to a significant drop in OI.

A Healthy Market Correction Process!

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described the decline as a “natural market reset.” According to the analyst, these types of liquidation periods are essential for maintaining the sustainability of an ongoing bullish trend.

Darkfost said, “Currently, Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 14% over a 90-day period. Historically, such deleveraging events have provided favorable opportunities in the short to medium term.”

Crypto Market Faces a ‘Demand Crisis’ Warning!

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Kriptolik, pointed out that derivative markets have become increasingly active since November 2024. However, the rise in stablecoin reserves on derivatives exchanges compared to spot markets indicates a lack of genuine demand in the spot market.

Kriptolik stated, “Despite the significant increase in total stablecoin supply since November 2024, the market and investors have not benefited substantially.” The analyst emphasized that the spot market is currently experiencing a “demand crisis.”

He added, “Until this distribution normalizes, avoiding high-leverage (high-risk) trades may be the most prudent approach.”

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Expanding Perpetual Trading on Coinbase

According to the latest statement from Coinbase, the CAKE-PERP, BRETT-PERP, and AI16Z-PERP pairs will be listed on Coinbase International Exchange and Coinbase Advanced. Trading will begin on or after March 6, 2025, at 9:30 AM UTC.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

This move aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to strengthen its presence in the crypto derivatives market. Perpetual futures trading allows traders to take advantage of market fluctuations with leveraged positions, increasing potential profitability.

By launching these new trading pairs, Coinbase aims to provide its users with more opportunities and solidify its position in the evolving crypto derivatives landscape.

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Starting November 19, U.S. markets will witness trading in spot Bitcoin ETF options, beginning with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This development promises to bring liquidity, price discovery, and sophisticated risk management tools to Bitcoin trading, advancing its role in global finance.

Options are a cornerstone of capital markets, providing depth and flexibility. In traditional markets, derivatives often dwarf the underlying assets in terms of size. Bitcoin’s current derivatives market, however, is underdeveloped, making up less than 1% of its $1.8 trillion spot market cap.

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The inclusion of Bitcoin ETF options in the U.S., the world’s largest and most liquid equity market, significantly expands participation opportunities. Both institutional investors and retail traders can now engage with Bitcoin derivatives at an unprecedented scale.

Currently, most Bitcoin derivatives are traded offshore or through OTC (over-the-counter) platforms, with platforms like Deribit accounting for $31 billion in open interest. This limits access for U.S. investors.
Consorti emphasizes that U.S. adoption will accelerate Bitcoin’s growth by aligning with traditional equities and commodities markets, where derivatives vastly outweigh spot trading volumes.

Potential Impacts:

• Enhanced Liquidity: Increased investor participation boosts market depth.
• Price Stability: Options provide tools to manage volatility effectively.
• Expanded Access: Both retail and institutional players gain equal opportunities.

The debut of spot Bitcoin ETF options in the U.S. is more than just a new trading feature; it is a transformative step for Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance. By unlocking massive liquidity and drawing institutional capital, this milestone sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next financial evolution.

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