Market Shock Absorber: Bitcoin

While traditional stock markets were closed, BTC emerged as the only 24/7 liquid market. On February 28, the price dipped to $64,000; on March 2 to $66,000, March 7 to $68,000, March 12 to $69,400, and during the Saturday Harg Island attack, buyers appeared at $70,500. In other words, each wave of selling was met at a higher low than the previous one. This pattern shows that sellers are tiring while buyers are waiting in ambush.

The most striking point is Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets over the same two-week period. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the conflict, the S&P 500 remained in a downtrend, gold prices fluctuated, and Asian stock markets recorded their worst week since March 2020. Bitcoin, however, absorbed all this turmoil faster and outperformed other assets.

Critical Squeeze: $74,000 Barrier

Technically, a rising base formed between $64,000 and $70,000. Each negative news triggered selling, but at higher levels than the previous one. During the March 12 tanker attack, the price held at $69,400 and during the Harg Island attack, it did not fall below $70,500. The $73,000–$74,000 range remains a ceiling that has rejected the price four times.

Low Levels:

• February 28 First Attack: $64,000

• March 2 Retaliation: $66,000

• March 7 Continuous Conflict: $68,000

• March 12 Tanker Attack: $69,400

Clearly, this narrowing triangle is likely to break in one direction.

Macro Context and Resilience

Trump stated that Iran’s energy infrastructure was not targeted; however, if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it will be reassessed. Iran continues to threaten retaliation on US-linked facilities. This conditional risk could lead to the largest supply disruption in history, according to the IEA.

Fortunately, the Bitcoin market has become leaner and more resilient after the massive liquidation wave in February. Weak hands have been eliminated; geopolitical shocks now fuel a stronger upward move rather than a destructive collapse.

Bitcoin is neither a fully safe haven nor a purely risky asset. When shocks arrive, it is the only traded asset that absorbs them faster than others, functioning as a 24/7 liquidity pool.

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On January 28, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%, reinforcing a data-dependent stance rather than signaling a clear easing cycle. Meanwhile, the IMF’s January 2026 outlook projects 3.3% global growth for the year, supported by technology investment and relatively accommodative financial conditions. In this environment, risk assets have not lost their footing entirely. Bitcoin’s shifting correlations offer insight into which identity is dominating.

Three Bitcoin Identities Competing for Control

Bitcoin appears to rotate between three distinct macro roles, depending on prevailing financial conditions.

1. Hedge Asset

In its hedge identity, Bitcoin would be expected to benefit from dollar weakness or from flows seeking a store-of-value alternative similar to gold. However, recent data suggest this role has faded. Bitcoin’s rolling 12-month correlation with gold peaked historically around +0.41 and has drifted close to zero since 2024. Likewise, its negative correlation with the US dollar, which approached –0.4 in 2022 and 2023, has weakened significantly in 2025 and early 2026. For now, the hedge narrative appears dormant rather than dominant.

2. High-Beta Technology Proxy

The stronger evidence currently supports Bitcoin behaving like a high-beta technology asset. Its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has ranged between +0.35 and +0.6 in 2025 and early 2026. This implies that during risk-on sessions, Bitcoin amplifies gains in technology equities, while in selloffs it often declines more sharply. As long as growth holds and financial conditions remain supportive, this identity tends to prevail.

3. Liquidity-Sensitive Asset

Even when policy rates remain unchanged, liquidity conditions can shift. Rising real yields or tighter financial plumbing can pressure Bitcoin. Research suggests sensitivity to dollar real rates, similar to gold and emerging market currencies. Indicators such as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, reverse repo facility usage, and broader money supply provide measurable signals of tightening or easing. When liquidity contracts, Bitcoin often reprices quickly.

What to Watch Next

At present, Bitcoin most closely resembles a high-beta technology asset, with liquidity sensitivity acting as a secondary driver. However, a sustained rise in real yields could push it toward a duration-like, liquidity-driven identity. In a geopolitical or credit shock scenario, correlations across assets could initially spike, with any renewed hedge behavior emerging only if the dollar weakens and policy support expands.

Bitcoin’s so-called identity crisis is not philosophical. It is empirical. Correlations, real rates, ETF flows, and liquidity indicators will determine which macro role dominates next. The data will shift before the narrative does.

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As institutional participation has expanded — particularly through exchange-traded products and traditional financial channels — Bitcoin’s price action has increasingly aligned with broader risk assets. Rather than behaving like a defensive asset during market stress, Bitcoin has often moved in tandem with growth-oriented equities. This shift has reignited debate over whether Bitcoin functions primarily as a hedge or as a high-beta technology exposure.

Rising Correlation With Growth Stocks

A recent research report from Grayscale highlights this evolving dynamic. While the firm maintains that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals support its role as a store of value, short-term trading patterns tell a different story. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has demonstrated a notable correlation with software and high-growth technology stocks.

The latest wave of volatility in the software sector — driven by renewed concerns about how artificial intelligence may disrupt existing business models — has been mirrored in crypto markets. As software equities faced selling pressure, Bitcoin experienced a similar pullback. This synchronized movement underscores how macro sentiment and sector-specific developments increasingly influence Bitcoin’s short-term valuation.

The data suggests that, at least in the near term, Bitcoin behaves more like a growth asset than a defensive monetary hedge.

BitMine Expands Ether Holdings Amid Market Weakness

During the recent market downturn, Ether-focused treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies added 40,613 ETH to its balance sheet. This purchase brought the company’s total Ether holdings to more than 4.326 million ETH, valued at approximately $8.8 billion at current market prices.

Despite the expansion, the company is reportedly facing around $8.1 billion in unrealized losses relative to its cost basis. The firm’s stock price has declined sharply in recent months, drawing criticism from investors. Nevertheless, management has reiterated that its strategy is aligned with Ether’s long-term growth trajectory, aiming to benefit from future recoveries. BitMine’s broader crypto and cash portfolio is estimated at roughly $10 billion.

Reassessing Bitcoin Role in Modern Portfolios

Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with technology stocks challenges the simplicity of the digital gold thesis. Institutional capital flows, macroeconomic shifts, and sector-specific developments are reshaping its market behavior.

While Bitcoin’s foundational characteristics — limited supply and decentralized design — remain intact, its short-term performance increasingly reflects risk appetite and growth expectations. Whether it ultimately solidifies its status as a long-term store of value or continues trading like a tech-driven growth asset will depend largely on evolving market structure and institutional adoption trends.

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A quiet shift is underway. Gold is moving onchain — and faster than expected.

At the start of the year, the tokenized commodities market stood near $4 billion. In less than six weeks, nearly $2 billion in value has been added. Data from Token Terminal shows that almost all of this growth is coming from gold-backed products.

Gold Tokens Are Driving The Market

The numbers are hard to ignore. Tether’s gold-backed token Tether Gold (XAUt) has been the largest contributor, with its market cap rising 51.6% over the past month to $3.6 billion. Paxos-listed PAX Gold (PAXG) climbed 33.2% over the same period, reaching $2.3 billion.

Together, these two products now represent more than 95% of the entire tokenized commodities market.

On a year-over-year basis, tokenized commodities are up 360%. Since the start of 2026, growth in this segment has outpaced tokenized stocks and tokenized funds, which posted gains of 42% and just 3.6%, respectively.

In comparison, the tokenized commodities market — now at roughly $6.1 billion — stands at just over one-third the size of the $17.2 billion tokenized funds market. Tokenized stocks, meanwhile, sit at only $538 million.

Tether Deepens Its Gold Strategy

This surge isn’t happening in isolation. Tether recently expanded its tokenized commodities strategy by acquiring a $150 million stake in precious metals platform Gold.com, aiming to broaden access to tokenized gold.

The company said its XAUt token will be integrated into Gold.com’s platform and that it is exploring options to allow customers to purchase physical gold using USDT.

In other words, Tether isn’t just issuing digital gold — it’s working to bridge onchain assets with the physical world.

Gold Accelerates While Bitcoin Lags

The rise in tokenized gold follows a powerful rally in spot gold prices.

Gold has gained more than 80% over the past year, reaching a new all-time high of $5,600 on Jan. 29. After a brief pullback to around $4,700 earlier this month, prices rebounded to roughly $5,050 at the time of writing.

Crypto markets have told a different story. A sharp selloff in mid-October triggered roughly $19 billion in liquidations. Bitcoin dropped more than 52% from its early October peak, briefly touching $60,000 before rebounding — but it remains below $70,000.

This divergence hasn’t gone unnoticed. Strike CEO Jack Mallers suggested Bitcoin is still being treated like a software stock rather than hard money. Grayscale echoed that view, noting that Bitcoin’s long-standing “digital gold” narrative is being tested, with recent price action resembling that of a high-risk growth asset.

When Gold Goes Onchain, The Balance Shifts

Capital is quietly rotating. The rapid expansion of tokenized commodities isn’t just another crypto trend. It looks more like an early signal that traditional safe-haven assets are beginning to migrate onto blockchain rails.

Bitcoin may be lagging for now. But gold — both physical and digital — is back in focus.

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Launched in 2020, Tether Gold aims to bring together the safe-haven characteristics of traditional gold with the accessibility and ease of transfer offered by crypto assets. This allows investors to hold a digital asset directly pegged to the price of gold without dealing with the challenges of physical gold storage and logistics.

What Does Tether Gold (XAUT) Aim to Achieve?

Tether was founded in 2014 to address high volatility in crypto markets and initially launched the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT. Over time, this approach expanded beyond fiat currencies to include real-world assets.

Tether Gold was developed as a product of this vision. The goal was to make gold—historically used as a store of value—more accessible to both individual and institutional investors by representing it on the blockchain.

How Does XAUT Work?

XAUT is an ERC-20 token operating on the Ethereum network. When an investor purchases XAUT, the system automatically allocates a specific physical gold bar to that wallet. Token holders can verify the serial number, purity level, and weight of the gold bar allocated to them by entering their Ethereum address on the platform.

Tokens can be divided up to six decimal places, offering far greater flexibility compared to physical gold. While the gold itself is stored in large bars, investors can own even a very small fraction of an ounce.

Combination of Physical Gold and Digital Asset Advantages

One of the most striking features of Tether Gold is that it combines the advantages of physical gold and digital assets in a single structure:

• Physical gold is stored in secure vaults, and investors do not bear additional storage costs
• Digital tokens enable 24/7 buying and selling
• Gold can be transferred and moved easily on the blockchain
• Tokens can be divided into small fractions, reducing liquidity issues

This structure eliminates limitations commonly encountered in traditional gold investments, such as transportation, storage, and trading hours.

XAUT and Price Stability

Gold has long been regarded as one of the strongest stores of value throughout history. It stands out as investors’ safe haven during periods of inflation and global uncertainty.

Because XAUT is directly pegged to the price of gold, it offers a more stable structure against sharp fluctuations in crypto markets. Compared to fiat-backed stablecoins, gold’s long-term track record of preserving purchasing power places XAUT in a distinct position.

Use Cases

Tether Gold can be used for various purposes, primarily as a store of value:

• Portfolio diversification
• Protection against inflation
• Safe transition asset between crypto holdings
• Trading on exchanges

Additionally, in countries where access to physical gold is difficult or costly, XAUT provides a global alternative.

Purchasing and Minimum Limits

For users who wish to purchase directly through the Tether Gold platform, the minimum purchase limit is set at 50 XAUT, and transactions are conducted only in US dollars. This makes direct platform purchases more suitable for institutional or high-net-worth investors.

However, XAUT can be bought and sold in smaller amounts on many crypto exchanges.

Redemption to Physical Gold

XAUT holders can request physical gold when they accumulate a sufficient amount of tokens. However, this process is only carried out on a full gold bar basis. An LBMA-standard bar typically weighs around 430 ounces.

When requested:

• Gold is delivered to a specified address in Switzerland
• Or the gold can be sold and converted to US dollars

Certain processing and delivery fees apply during this process.

Scudo: On-Chain Gold Measurement Unit

In the Tether Gold ecosystem, the Scudo unit has been introduced to facilitate the on-chain use of gold. 1 Scudo equals 1/1000 XAUT. This structure enables gold to be represented in smaller and more practical units.

Tether Gold for Institutional Investors

XAUT provides institutional investors with direct exposure to gold prices while also bringing the transaction and custody convenience of crypto assets. The absence of custody fees and 24/7 access are significant advantages for institutional portfolios.

How to Buy Tether Gold (XAUT)?

Tether Gold exists within a broad ecosystem involving various exchanges, custody solutions, and DeFi protocols. This structure makes XAUT globally accessible for both investment and custody purposes.

Platforms supporting XAUT:

• Anchorage Digital, Aave, Bitfinex, Bitget, Bitkub Exchange, Bybit, CoinDCX, Coinmena, Coins.ph, Crypto.com ,Fasset, Flow Traders, Gate, Kraken, KuCoin, MEXC, Mobee, OKX, Paribu, PDAX, Rain, Satoshi Tango, Transak, Uniswap, VALR, WhiteBIT, Zengo

Tether Gold (XAUT) Team

Tether Gold is developed and managed by an experienced team that oversees the Tether ecosystem. Individuals with many years of experience in finance, law, and operations play active roles in the project.

Tether Gold team:

• Craig Sellars (Co-Founder)
• Brock Pierce (Co-Founder)
• Paolo Ardoino (CEO)
• Giancarlo Devasini (CFO)
• Leonardo Real (CCO)
• Claudia Lagorio (COO)
• Stuart Hoegner (General Counsel)

Official Links

• Website
• X (Twitter)

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Whales Securing Digital Gold

Market activity actually shows that whales are taking long-term positions rather than short-term trades. For instance, during the last week of January, large wallets withdrew multi-million-dollar amounts of XAUT and PAXG from Bybit and MEXC. On January 27, wallet 0xbe4C pulled nearly $10 million in XAUT; the same day, 0x0F67 withdrew about $2.8 million in XAUT.

Interestingly, wallet 0x1b7D simultaneously withdrew around $1 million worth of both XAUT and PAXG from MEXC. Of course, these aren’t random moves; they appear part of a larger accumulation strategy. On January 28, 0x6Afa spent almost $6 million to acquire PAXG over two days, while newly created wallet 0x0E4F pulled $4 million in XAUT from Bybit.

Negative Exchange Flows Signal Long-Term Holding

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows net negative exchange flows for Tether Gold over the past seven days. This actually indicates consistent withdrawals from centralized exchanges, suggesting long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculation. In other words, investors are positioning for continued upside.

XAUT’s market capitalization also reflects strong momentum. According to CoinGecko, Tether Gold’s total market cap reached around $2.9 billion, hitting an all-time high. This growth closely mirrors rising gold prices and increased demand for tokenized exposure.

Tokenized Gold Bridges Crypto and Safe-Haven Demand

The market trend shows that digital gold is bridging traditional safe-haven demand and crypto-native capital. Amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty, whales increasingly favor tokenized gold as a liquid, blockchain-based safe-haven.

With falling exchange balances and rising market capitalization, XAUT is emerging as a key long-term store of value. Truthfully, the accumulation by crypto whales signals a growing convergence between traditional bullion demand and the new digital frontier.

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Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.

Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.

Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside

Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.

• Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.

• Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.

• Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.

Bitcoin vs Gold Performance

The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.

Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.

What Investors Should Expect

XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:

• Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.

• Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.

However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.

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Bitcoin Pullback: $108K After $114K Peak

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from a peak of $114K to $108K. Analysts emphasize that this pullback does not negate the overall trend, and long-term capital rotation may still favor digital assets. Market research firm Swissblock noted that a similar pattern occurred earlier this year: in April, gold lost 5% in three days while Bitcoin remained stable before launching a strong rally. This indicates that short-term corrections may be seen as long-term opportunities by investors.

Shifting Power Between Gold and Bitcoin

The sharp decline in gold highlights Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. For crypto investors, this period signals three key points:

• Liquidity Rotation: Capital may move from gold to digital assets.

• Macro Trend: As inflation pressures ease, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” perception strengthens.

• Price Behavior: Short-term corrections can be part of longer bullish cycles.

Binance founder CZ summarized this dynamic: “Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold. I don’t know exactly when, but it’s inevitable.”

Even though BTC is currently at $108K, the gold price crash could create a structural opportunity for digital assets. Analysts suggest that the shift from gold to Bitcoin may continue, marking the next phase in the ongoing competition between traditional and digital assets.

Conclusion: Gold Falls, Bitcoin Stabilizes

The gold price crash has reshaped investors’ risk perception. Bitcoin’s short-term pullback does not diminish its long-term role as digital gold. If current trends persist, capital rotation from gold to digital assets may define the next major movement in financial markets.

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Bitcoin and Gold Move in Sync

Ki Young Ju highlighted in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has surged as the precious metal continues to hit new all-time highs.

“Gold keeps hitting new all-time highs. BTC–gold correlation is high; the digital gold narrative remains alive. Inflation hedge demand isn’t dead yet,” he wrote.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the correlation was -0.8 in October 2021, demonstrating a remarkable shift in market sentiment. The correlation previously peaked at 0.9 in April last year, further confirming Bitcoin’s growing status as a macro hedge similar to gold.

Bitcoin Mirrors Gold’s Evolution

According to Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, the rising correlation reflects institutional investors’ changing perception of Bitcoin. “Capital naturally rotates into assets perceived as stable stores of value,” he noted.

Grachev compared Bitcoin’s journey to gold’s historical transformation — from an active currency to a long-term store of value. Similarly, Ben Elvidge from Trilitech emphasized that Bitcoin’s programmatic scarcity makes it more suitable as a store of value rather than a payment method.

Hard Assets Gain Momentum

Gold reached a new record of $4,179 per ounce this week, with spot prices around $4,128 and December futures at $4,158, marking a 57% increase this year. Silver also soared to $53.60, up 85% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s rally.

Analysts suggest that institutional investors are turning to hard assets amid fears of ongoing fiat currency debasement. As Anthony Pompliano recently stated, “No one is ever going to stop printing money” — a realization that continues to drive capital toward Bitcoin and gold as reliable, finite stores of value.

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Yet, alongside this rapid accumulation, concerns are emerging about shrinking transaction fees — a trend that could challenge Bitcoin’s long-standing “digital gold” narrative.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings at Record Levels

From corporate treasuries to mining firms and ETF issuers, the role of public companies in Bitcoin markets has expanded significantly over the past few years.

At the top of the leaderboard sits Strategy, co-founded by Michael Saylor, which began aggressively purchasing Bitcoin back in 2020.

In second place is MARA Holdings, with 52,477 BTC under its control — adding 705 BTC in August alone.

New entrants are also making their mark. Jack Mallers’ XXI already holds 43,514 BTC, while the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company owns 30,021 BTC.

Other notable players include Bullish (24,000 BTC), Metaplanet (20,000 BTC), and publicly traded names such as Riot Platforms, Trump Media & Technology Group, CleanSpark, and Coinbase.

The Hidden Risk: Transaction Fees in Decline

While Wall Street’s Bitcoin exposure is growing, the network faces a different challenge: falling transaction fees. Following the most recent halving, block rewards were reduced, and transaction fees now account for less than 1% of miner revenue.

This leaves miners increasingly reliant on price appreciation alone to sustain profitability. As a result, some are forced to liquidate reserves or shut down operations entirely.

Beyond economics, this dynamic could also impact Bitcoin’s decentralization and security. A decline in miner participation risks concentrating hash power into the hands of a few dominant pools. In fact, Foundry and Antpool already command nearly half of the network’s total hash rate.

The 2028 Halving: An Even Greater Test

The next halving will cut block rewards further, down to 1.5625 BTC per block. For miners, this represents an even steeper challenge to stay profitable.

Unless new use cases emerge to boost demand for block space, Bitcoin’s security model could weaken. Such a shift would push the “digital gold” narrative further away from the economic incentives that underpin the network’s resilience.

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