Meanwhile, the Dollar Index traded slightly lower at 99, but the weekly picture is different: the index is set for about a 1.4% gain this week, its strongest since November 2024.

• Gold (XAU/USD): 5,122.71 USD
• Euro (EUR/USD): 1.1612 USD
• USD/JPY: 157.5 Yen
• Brent Crude: 85 USD

Middle East Tensions Drive Dollar Demand

At the start of the week, markets had priced in a short-lived diplomatic easing. However, news from the field quickly erased that expectation.

US and Israeli warplanes struck certain areas in Iran, while Gulf cities faced renewed bombardment. Iran warned that the sinking of an Iranian warship would be “a step Washington will bitterly regret.”

Investors’ reflexes in this atmosphere are familiar:

• Dollar strengthens

• Risk assets face pressure

• Energy prices surge

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore notes that if the current intensity of the tension persists, the picture could become clearer: higher inflation, a stronger dollar, and a reduced chance of Fed rate cuts.

Oil Prices Rekindle Inflation Concerns

The first market impact of geopolitical risk has been on energy.

Brent crude futures surged to 85 USD, reaching the highest level since 2024. Weekly gains are roughly 5%, marking one of the sharpest weekly jumps since March 2022.

This surge in energy prices particularly means new inflationary pressures for economies dependent on energy imports.

The market scenario is simple:

high oil → higher inflation → later interest rate cuts.

This shift in rate expectations is also visible in money market instruments. Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) indicate that the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut has been postponed to either September or October.

Euro and Yen Under Pressure

Against the stronger dollar, major currencies spent the week on the defensive.

• Euro: around 1.1612 USD, flat

• Japanese Yen: 157.5 per USD

• Sterling: 1.3361 USD

Major pairs may look stable, but the trend is clear: dollar strength dominates.

Skye Masters, head of market research at National Australia Bank, highlights two historical experiences in investors’ minds: post-pandemic supply shocks and inflation after the Russia-Ukraine war. A new energy-driven price spike is therefore seen as a serious risk.

Global Markets Volatility

Tensions are not limited to currency markets. Equities and bonds also faced pressure.

On Thursday, US stock indices saw sharp declines:

• Dow Jones: down ~785 points (%1.6)

• S&P 500: down ~0.6%

• Nasdaq Composite: down ~0.3%

Dow Jones thus approaches its worst weekly performance since October.

Meanwhile, futures markets show limited recovery signs:

• Dow Jones futures

• S&P 500 futures

• Nasdaq 100 futures

All trade slightly higher on the final day, yet market sentiment remains cautious.

Crypto Markets See Limited Pullback

During geopolitical risk periods, crypto markets often react in complex ways. This time is no exception.

• Bitcoin: ~70,956 USD

• Ethereum: ~2,074 USD

Daily declines for both assets hover around 0.3%, suggesting risk mitigation rather than panic selling.

Eyes on US Employment Data

Geopolitical developments dominate, but macro data still matters.

Recent data show:

• Weekly jobless claims remained unchanged

• Layoffs fell sharply in February

Economists are now focused on nonfarm payrolls. Surveys predict 59,000 new jobs in the US for February, after 130,000 in January.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% in February.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Analysts see room for the dollar to stay strong short-term, largely tied to the risk premium in oil prices.

Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, notes that dollar gains will depend on how the Iran geopolitical process unfolds. If the conflict remains contained, markets may rebalance.

For now, the picture is different. Risk appetite is low. Energy prices are high. And the dollar… naturally strong.

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This pause in the market can be interpreted as investors balancing between low liquidity in Asian markets and upcoming critical U.S. inflation data. Holidays in major players such as China and South Korea have slightly thinned market activity, but the main story remains in the Fed minutes.

Why Gold Is Pulling Back: Fed Minutes and Dollar Pressure

There is no single reason for this gold retracement. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting show members are cautious about interest rate cuts. Some even indicated that “a rate hike remains on the table if inflation does not decline,” which pushed non-yielding gold slightly aside.

The dollar’s global strength continues to pressure gold prices. Analysts suggest gold could fluctuate in the $4,800–$5,100 range in the short term, with Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report likely decisive for a lasting trend.

February 19 Current Gold and Silver Trends

Gram gold is trading around 7,012 TL, down about 0.1%. Ounce gold is just below the psychological $5,000 mark at $4,968.

Silver prices, following yesterday’s gain of over 5%, are holding steady at $77.18. Technically, the $70–$90 range remains the main trading zone for silver.

Other precious metals saw minor changes: platinum fell to $2,069, while palladium remained stable around $1,715.

Market Analysis: Is It the Right Time to Buy Gold?

This sideways movement can be interpreted as the calm before the storm. Macro pressures dominate over technical weakness. If U.S. employment and inflation data fail to reassure the Fed, a stronger dollar could continue to challenge gold.

The 7,000 TL support for gram gold is critical. However, the market always leaves room for reversal. If Friday’s data falls short of expectations, current bearish sentiment could quickly reverse.

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Dollar Index Hits Nine-Month High in Two Days

According to TradingView, the DXY rose 1.5% in two days to 97.60, marking its strongest two-day gain in nine months. Analysts attribute the surge to expectations that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will take a cautious approach to rate cuts and upcoming macroeconomic data.

ING analysts noted, “The dollar looks healthier. Last week’s sharp decline has been resolved since Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair.”

Bitcoin Stabilizes but Faces Headwinds

BTC stabilized between $75,000–$80,000 after falling below $75,000 from $85,000 over the weekend. Futures market dynamics could trigger a rebound above $80,000, but the rising DXY limits this potential.

A stronger dollar increases the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. Rising DXY typically signals downward pressure on BTC. Additionally, a strong dollar can tighten financial conditions, making money and credit more expensive and reducing risk appetite in global markets.

Kevin Warsh and U.S. Data Create Uncertainty

Markets closely watch Warsh’s policy approach. Previously seen as hawkish during his 2006–2011 Fed tenure, he is expected to be cautious on aggressive rate cuts compared to other candidates.

Upcoming U.S. employment data, particularly the nonfarm payroll report, will be key. Initially scheduled for February 6, the report was delayed due to the partial federal shutdown. Analysts expect 80,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate, potentially supporting dollar stabilization.

FX and macro strategists note that the DXY’s upward trend may continue. Matthew Ryan commented, “Warsh’s past hawkish image suggests he may act cautiously on rate cuts. The dollar is likely to remain strong in the short term.”

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The US currency, measured against six other units by the Dollar Index (DXY), fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking its largest annual decline in eight years, and remained at 98.186. Markets have already priced in expectations that the Fed may start aggressive rate cuts.

Euro and Sterling Performance

The euro traded at $1.1752 on the first day of the year, while sterling reached $1.3473. Both currencies recorded their steepest annual gains since 2017. Global investors are shifting toward European currencies as the US currency weakens.

Reports from UBS and Morningstar suggest that the “American exceptionalism” theme may weaken. Signs of recovery in Europe and Japan make the euro and yen more attractive to investors compared to the US currency. ECB’s slower rate cuts relative to the Fed and the BoJ signaling an exit from ultra-loose policies are expected to increase downward pressure on the US currency.

The policy gap between the US Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) will drive GBP/USD in 2026. The Fed has cut rates to 3.50-3.75%, with markets expecting a further drop toward 3.00% in the first half, weakening dollar yield support. The BoE is likely to ease gradually from 3.75-4.00% to 3.00-3.25%, possibly 2.75% if UK growth slows. This favors GBP/USD gains early in the year, but faster BoE cuts could reduce the advantage. Market forecasts range 1.30-1.47, centering around 1.36-1.40, indicating no one-way trend.

Silver gained 171.5% year-to-date, reaching $83 per ounce. This performance made silver the best-performing precious metal of 2025 and drew investors’ attention.

Yen Follows a Different Path

The Japanese yen gained just around 1% against the US currency in 2025 and hovered near a 10-month low. BOJ rate hikes had limited impact, and investors unwound long yen positions. The government’s expansionary fiscal policy is still considered a risk to the economy in 2026.

Emerging Markets and Commodity Opportunities

A weaker US currency creates opportunities for emerging markets. Markets like Turkey may become more attractive to investors due to local currency appreciation and inflows of foreign capital. Similarly, commodities such as gold, silver, and oil benefit from a weaker greenback, becoming cheaper for international buyers and potentially triggering a new rally.

The weak US currency presents both opportunities and risks globally; investors are closely watching the Fed and other central banks’ next moves.

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A striking detail? The strong correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia has come into sharper focus — fueling the rally and reshaping investment strategies.

Dollar Index Drops, Bitcoin Rebounds

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 97.27, its lowest level since February 2022, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and weaker housing and consumer sentiment data.

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As financial conditions ease, risk-on sentiment dominates. Bitcoin has responded with a near 10% recovery from its weekend lows. “DXY is now at its lowest since March 2022. This is very bullish for global money supply and Bitcoin,” noted Bitwise Europe research head Andre Dragosch.

Nvidia Hits Record High As Nasdaq Signals Bull Rally

Meanwhile, Nvidia — the AI giant and tech bellwether — soared by 4.33% to reach an all-time high of $154.30. The 90-day correlation between BTC and Nvidia now stands at 0.80, reflecting a robust positive link.

The surge followed a golden cross pattern in Nasdaq futures, a strong bullish technical signal suggesting further upward momentum.

Bond Yields and Consumer Data Indicate Recession Risk

Yields on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes dropped to 3.76%, while 10-year yields slipped to 4.27%. This steepening of the yield curve often precedes economic contractions.

Consumer confidence also dropped sharply, with the expectations index falling to 69 — well below the recession-warning threshold of 80. Combined with sliding oil prices and dovish signals from Fed officials, traders are increasingly pricing in a July rate cut.

Bitcoin stands to benefit from this shift in monetary policy outlook.

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Five-Day Inflow Streak Signals Investor Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of inflows starting June 9, with over $1.3 billion entering the market. According to Farside Investors, Friday alone saw $301 million in net inflows, signaling robust confidence in Bitcoin despite recent shocks.

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While the cryptocurrency briefly dropped 3% following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, it bounced back quickly from $103,000 to hover around $105,000 — reflecting market resilience under pressure.

Falling Dollar Boosts Bitcoin’s Outlook

Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau emphasized the macroeconomic view: “It’s not geopolitics, but the U.S. dollar index (DXY) that truly drives Bitcoin. With DXY falling below 100 — a three-year low — Bitcoin stands to benefit.”

Still, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could trigger short-term price shocks across risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

New Highs on the Horizon?

Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading just 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, reached on May 22. This resilience has analysts predicting that a breakout could be imminent.

As macroeconomic instability grows and trust in traditional finance weakens, capped-supply assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

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Why Is the Dollar Gaining Strength?

There are several key factors behind the dollar’s rising dominance in global payments. Most importantly, the US Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy plays a central role. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates high continues to attract investors to the dollar, putting pressure on the currencies of emerging markets.

Additionally, increasing geopolitical risks push global investors toward the dollar as a safe haven. The Russia-Ukraine war, uncertainty in the Middle East, and trade tensions in Asia have made the dollar even more indispensable in global transactions.

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What Will Be the Economic Consequences?

The dollar’s overwhelming dominance in global payments may create various effects on different countries:

• For emerging economies, the cost of external borrowing could increase further. Countries repaying debts denominated in dollars may face significant budget deficits.
• The US dollar’s supremacy in global trade could reduce the usage of other currencies, potentially weakening other reserve currencies like the Euro and Yen.
• For the US economy, high demand for the dollar could widen the trade deficit. However, this could also strengthen demand for US bonds and assets in the short term.

Is This the Start of a New Financial Era?

Experts argue that the dollar’s growing dominance further consolidates the dollar-centric structure of the global financial system. This development may accelerate the efforts of some countries to create alternative payment systems. In particular, BRICS countries are working on new strategies to reduce their dependence on the dollar.

Still, in the short term, a significant decrease in dollar dependency seems unlikely. On the contrary, the dollar’s dominance in global transactions may deepen even further.

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Bitcoin Drops Sharply: Could $78,000 Be Tested?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $82,037 before rebounding slightly toward $85,000. However, market weakness persists, raising concerns that $78,000 levels could be retested.

This sharp decline was triggered by the activation of US trade tariffs against Mexico and Canada, adding further uncertainty. Additionally, the lack of clarity on the US strategic crypto reserve plan is fueling further hesitation in the market.

Trump’s Trade Policies Weigh on Bitcoin!

In its latest market analysis, QCP Capital noted that renewed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have amplified investor concerns over growing trade tensions.

Even the SEC’s recent move to pause and dismiss enforcement cases against crypto firms failed to ease selling pressure, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment. The firm further stated:

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“This downturn could intensify pressure on Trump, especially after the strong support and donations he received from the crypto community during his campaign.”

Is There Hope for a Market Rebound?

Despite the negative sentiment, analysts at Mosaic Asset see potential for a short-term rally. They argue that bearish sentiment and oversold conditions often pave the way for a rebound.

Additionally, historical trends in S&P 500 seasonality suggest that March could be a strong month for risk assets. Over the past 15 years, March has been the best-performing month in the first half of the calendar year.

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As investors wonder whether Bitcoin will fall to the 95,000 level, experts are closely monitoring market movements. Analyses suggest that Bitcoin‘s current sideways movement is likely to continue, but a strong drop could be possible in the short term. If Bitcoin stays at this level and falls below 95,000 within a 4-hour period, there is a risk of a new selling wave starting.

However, many analysts believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to remain at this level for long. It is believed that Bitcoin has found a balance at its current price levels, and further drops are unlikely. Nevertheless, investors are advised to remain cautious. It is important for them to carefully monitor Bitcoin‘s price and be ready to act quickly if a close below this level occurs.

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The recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin could present many opportunities for investors, but if caution is not exercised, it may also lead to significant losses. Especially technical analysts predict that if the price drops below 95,000, Bitcoin could fall even further. Therefore, it is crucial to have proper risk management strategies before entering the market.

What’s Happening in the Market?

Recently, the price fluctuations in Bitcoin have continued to attract great interest in the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin has shown small sideways movement over the past week, investors and analysts are attributing this to new developments in the market. Large investors and institutional purchases seem to be helping stabilize the price of Bitcoin, but short-term fluctuations are still causing concern among investors.

This volatility in Bitcoin‘s price is believed to be driven by market dynamics. The dollar index and global economic conditions are also important factors affecting the price of Bitcoin. Investors are closely monitoring market developments and technical analyses to gain more insight into Bitcoin‘s future.

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Second Consecutive Day of Decline in Crypto Markets

The cryptocurrency markets experienced their second consecutive day of decline as the DXY reached new highs and investors expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy plans. While the DXY’s initial weakness early in the week briefly pushed Bitcoin to $102,400, the index subsequently reversed course and climbed to 109.

Treasury Yields Rise Amid Inflation Concerns

The increase in U.S. Treasury yields has also negatively impacted the markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.7%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.93%. These increases reflect market participants’ concerns that inflation will remain elevated. The new administration’s expansionary economic policies could potentially increase budget deficits, further fueling these concerns and potentially leading to higher interest rates on long-term U.S. debt instruments.

Bitcoin Price and DXY Strengthening

Bitcoin prices have been adversely affected by the strengthening DXY. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,000. Analysts caution that if the price breaks below the $90,000 support level, it could face further short-term declines.

Forward-Looking Expectations

Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, suggests that the current DXY strength may be less significant in the long term. Coutts believes that the incoming Trump administration’s potential increase in liquidity and crypto-friendly stance could create positive implications for Bitcoin.

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