Donald Trump Plans to Announce New Tariffs in 2-3 Weeks

Trump stated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will send letters to the relevant countries, informing them of the “fees to be paid for doing business in the United States.” This announcement came during a meeting with business leaders. Trump said, “I think we will be very fair, but the number of countries wanting to see us is too high. It is impossible to please everyone at once.”

150 Countries Seek Trade Agreements

Trump noted that approximately 150 countries want to make a trade deal with the U.S., but he did not specify which countries fall under this scope. Although the administration will send written notices to some of these countries, it remains unclear which ones will receive them.

Previously Suspended

It is worth recalling that Trump had announced new tariffs on dozens of trading partners on April 2, but due to panic in the markets, the decisions were suspended for 90 days. At that time, foreign governments were given time to negotiate. However, recent developments show that Trump is now moving away from individual negotiations, adopting a more general and swift approach.

China Tariffs May Stay at 30%

It is also being discussed that the current tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration may remain at 30% until 2025. This indicates a continuation of the U.S.’s economic strategy against China.

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Will Donald Trump Delay Tariffs?

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to shake global markets. Earlier today, Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett made a statement that drew significant attention. According to Hassett, Trump is considering suspending tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China. This news briefly eased market tensions—but confusion quickly followed.

According to CNBC, sources within the White House said they were completely unaware of any such consideration. The fact that top officials had no knowledge of this plan sparked speculation of a communication gap within the administration. Was Hassett expressing a personal opinion, or was it an early leak of an upcoming policy change?

The uncertainty didn’t last long. In a last-minute official statement, the White House denied the 90-day suspension, calling it “fake news.” With this clarification, it became clear that there are currently no plans to delay tariffs.

These mixed signals have only added to the pressure on the markets. Recently, the S&P 500 experienced sharp declines, and growing investor anxiety has made every statement from the administration even more impactful. With high-profile critics like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman openly opposing the tariffs, any shift in trade policy could significantly influence market sentiment.

In conclusion, for now, the Trump administration has no intention of pausing tariffs. However, the conflicting messages and volatile market conditions suggest that this topic could resurface in the near future.

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Goldman Sachs Lowers S&P 500 Targets, Increases U.S. Recession Probability

Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street’s most influential investment banks, has lowered its S&P 500 targets and increased the probability of a U.S. recession next year. This change reflects concerns about the economic damage caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

This change is particularly gloomy because Goldman has been known for its more optimistic growth expectations over the years, and has been correct in its predictions. It was one of the few forecasters to predict that the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes in 2022 would not lead to a recession.

On Sunday, two teams released notes expressing dimmer expectations for stocks and the economy. Strategists led by David J. Kostin now forecast the S&P 500 to fall 5% to 5,300 over the next three months, compared to their previous forecast that the index would remain flat. For the next 12 months, they forecast the index will rise only 6% to 5,900, down from a previous forecast of a 16% gain. They also lowered their earnings growth forecasts for 2025.

Separately, Jan Hatzius‘s economics team raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% from 20%. This reflects higher assumptions about tariffs ahead of what Trump is calling “Liberation Day,” when new tariffs on imports are set to take effect.

This will increase inflation and weaken growth, they said. The economics team raised their year-end inflation forecast to 3.5% based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures index, well above the Fed’s 2% target, which will make it difficult for Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

At the same time, Goldman’s year-end GDP forecast was revised down by half a point to a 1% increase. This led to an increase in their unemployment rate forecast from 4.2% to 4.5%.

The equities team sought a more optimistic perspective. They noted that their sentiment indicator, though sharply down, remains higher than the levels seen after previous major sell-offs. They suggested focusing on stocks with the least earnings growth variability and those that are generally not correlated with major themes driving market pricing.

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