Data Above Expectations

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 224K (Forecast: 225K, Previous: 226K)

• Annual PPI: 3.3% (Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.3%)

• Monthly PPI: 0.9% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)

The fact that both annual and monthly PPI came in significantly higher than expected has reinforced the market perception that “inflation is still not under control.”

Decline in Rate Cut Probabilities

According to Polymarket data, rate cut probabilities for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting are as follows:

• 50+ bps cut: 5%

• 25 bps cut: 75%

• No change: 19%

These figures show that after the PPI release, the likelihood of a strong 50 basis point cut has weakened considerably, creating a more cautious outlook in the markets.

Sharp Drop in Bitcoin

This negative macroeconomic sentiment also spilled over into Bitcoin prices. The leading cryptocurrency fell 3.51%, dropping below $119,000. Rising inflation data and the decreased likelihood of a more dovish Fed stance have increased selling pressure on risk assets.

Short-term market volatility is expected to continue, with investors closely monitoring both inflation indicators and statements from Fed officials.

$1.05 Billion in Positions Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours!

In the past 24 hours, heightened volatility in the crypto market has led to more than $1.05 billion in liquidations. Of this, $781.97 million came from long positions and $270.19 million from short positions. This highlights the severe losses for leveraged traders and the sharp moves occurring in both directions.

U.S. Stocks Open Lower!

U.S. equities started the day slightly in the red. At the open, the Dow Jones index was down 0.07%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.31%. This weak opening reflects investors’ cautious stance regarding economic data and rate cut expectations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry high risks, and you should always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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During the same period, continuing claims showed a notable increase. For the week ending June 14, claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021. Expectations were around 1.950 million.

Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.5% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2024. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% decline. This marks a sharp pullback compared to the 2.4% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak

Although initial jobless claims have decreased in the short term, broader data indicates an increase in layoffs. With the start of summer holidays and technical factors, non-teaching staff in some states are eligible to file for unemployment, contributing to the rise.

Economists also highlight that growing uncertainties and President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have made it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading many firms to take a cautious approach toward hiring.

Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, keeping the benchmark rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that they are waiting to see more clarity on external inflation pressures before considering any rate cuts. The likelihood of a rate cut this fall appears to be increasing.

Unemployment Rate May Rise

The rise in continuing claims suggests that the unemployment rate could climb from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June. A recent Conference Board survey showed the share of consumers who believe jobs are “plentiful” dropped to its lowest level in over four years.

Lou Crandall, Chief Economist at Wrightson ICAP, commented, “The rising volume of layoffs is likely to translate into an increase of at least one-tenth of a percent in the national jobless rate in the June employment report.”

U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher

Additionally,  U.S. stock markets in positive territory. The Dow Jones rose by 0.24%, the S&P 500 by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq by 0.45%. This uptick was supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and Powell’s dovish tone on potential interest rate cuts, which sparked short-term optimism in the markets.

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Israel-Iran Tensions Weigh on Markets

At Tuesday’s (today’s) opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started the day with a loss of over 100 points; the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.5%.

One of the main reasons for this decline was the weakening expectations of a quick end to the conflict. US President Donald Trump’s remarks and social media posts on the matter overshadowed the possibility of a swift ceasefire in the region.

Trump said in a post on his social media Truth Social:

“French President Emmanuel Macron mistakenly claimed that I left the G7 Summit early and returned to Washington to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Wrong! This has nothing to do with a ceasefire. Macron got it wrong, as usual.”

Following these statements, markets reacted quickly. Oil prices rose by 2%, while cryptocurrencies lost value. Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped from $108,000 to around $105,500.

Despite missile attacks last week, US stock markets showed resilience, but now are signaling weakness this week. Especially the S&P 500 managed to stay above the 6,000 point level after the rise on June 16.

US Retail Sales Fall Below Expectations

Negative signals are also evident in economic data. According to the latest figures released on June 17, US retail sales declined by 0.9% in May. This drop exceeded analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% decrease and indicated a slowdown in consumer spending.

Eyes on the FED Meeting

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Markets focused on the FOMC statement to be announced on Wednesday, June 18, and remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Analysts generally expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady at this meeting.

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Bank of America Market Analysis 

In a note dated May 8, Michael Hartnett stated that the rally surged in the second quarter due to tariff optimism. However, this recovery has now ended. Investors are following a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” strategy. Although the S&P 500 rose 14% after Trump’s tariff pause announcement on April 9, it is down 3.7% for the year. 

Hartnett believes U.S. stocks are in a “late-stage structural bear market.” For this reason, he recommends bonds and international markets over stocks. Foreign markets are outperforming the U.S. 

Bank of America Data and Investor Movements 

Bank of America’s data shows that $24.8 billion has flowed out of U.S. stocks over the past four weeks. This figure, sourced from EPFR Global, marks the largest outflow in two years. Investors are uncertain about the market’s future. This aligns with Hartnett’s warning that the rally is over. 

Still, there are some market movements. Trump’s consideration of tariff cuts during weekend talks with China sparked a short-term rise in indices. The Dow Jones rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%. However, futures remained nearly flat on Friday morning. 

Trump announced a trade framework with the UK. This is the first deal under the U.S.’s “reciprocal tariff” policy. The UK faces a 10% base tariff. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management calls this deal a “test run.” Agreements with China and other major trade partners will be more critical. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s optimism about China talks has* sparked market activity. However, investors remain cautious. Large bets are not being placed in futures. The S&P 500 is set to close the week with a 0.4% loss. The Nasdaq is down 0.3%, while the Dow is up 0.1%, marking its third positive week. 

The market is awaiting the outcome of Trump’s China talks. Reuters reports that tariff negotiations with China are at a critical stage this weekend. If a deal is reached, it could spark new market activity. According to The Wall Street Journal, investors are avoiding risks due to long-term uncertainties. 

In conclusion, Bank of America’s warning and investors’ cash withdrawals indicate that the stock market rally has stalled. Hartnett’s recommendation to shift to bonds and international markets may offer investors a new roadmap. 

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Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Warnings Draw Attention 

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), in its May 7, 2025 meeting, kept the interest rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted growing threats to economic growth and employment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference, stated, “Large tariff increases could slow the economy, prolong inflation, and increase job losses.” Powell’s remarks were interpreted as criticism of the Trump administration’s trade policies. 

The Fed’s decision to maintain rates heightened market uncertainty. Powell’s tariff warning prompted investors to adopt a cautious stance. Despite this, alternative assets like Bitcoin saw an upswing. 

President Donald Trump, on the same day, emphasized that tariffs on China would not be lifted. Although talks with Chinese officials were scheduled for the weekend in Switzerland, Trump showed no signs of compromise. This escalated global trade tensions. Trump stated, “Our trade policies will strengthen the U.S. economy,” reaffirming his commitment to his approach. 

U.S. stock markets experienced volatility following the Fed’s decision and tariff tensions. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. The Dow Jones gained 200 points, or 0.5%, driven by gains in banking stocks. However, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% due to losses in technology stocks. Notably, Alphabet dropped 6% amid rumors of a new AI-focused search engine. Apple also lost 1% in value. While banking stocks rallied, the technology sector underperformed due to tariff concerns. 

Bitcoin Surge and Profit-Taking 

Following the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin rose 2%, approaching $97,000. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin gained over 20% in the past week. CryptoQuant’s analysis indicated that investors accelerated profit-taking. Daily realized profits exceeded $1 billion, signaling an advanced stage of the bull market. 

CryptoQuant noted that high profit-taking could increase the risk of a pullback. However, if profit-taking slows, Bitcoin could enter a new upward trend. The Fed’s interest rate policies indirectly influence crypto markets. JPMorgan analysts predict that the Fed’s cautious stance may sustain volatility in crypto markets. 

Post-Fed Decision Outlook 

Powell warned that tariff increases could fuel inflation and slow growth. “We won’t rush into rate cuts,” Powell said, emphasizing a focus on economic data. Analysts predict the Fed could implement two rate cuts in 2025. However, Trump’s policies may alter these expectations. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential rate cut in June 2025, though tariff policies’ impact on inflation could delay this timeline. 

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What Did Powell Say?

Jerome Powell used both cautious and warning tones in his speech. The following statements were particularly striking:

• “The economic impact of tariffs is likely to be greater than expected.”
  This statement raised concerns that the recent rise in U.S. trade policies and signals of a more closed economy could cause more damage than anticipated.
• “Despite uncertainties, the U.S. economy remains resilient.”
  Although this may seem like a positive remark, investors focused on the emphasis on “uncertainties.”
• “We are not in a hurry to cut rates.”
  The market had been expecting a rate cut this year. However, these words disappointed investors hoping for near-term monetary easing.
• “If the Fed’s authorities come into conflict, we might face a difficult decision.”
  This statement reinforced the perception of growing internal disagreements or political pressure within the Fed.
• “Automakers’ supply chains will likely be disrupted for years.”
  This signaled that supply-side problems would persist, potentially making inflation more permanent.

Powell Spoke, Markets Reacted

Investors began pricing in more economic fragility alongside the Fed’s cautious stance. Powell’s remarks once again showed us that every word from a central bank chairman can trigger trillion-dollar swings in the markets.

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The Dow Jones gained 2.27%, the S&P 500 increased by 3.48%, and the Nasdaq rose by 3.73%. So, what does this positive opening mean for markets that have been under the shadow of negative factors like Trump’s tariffs for a long time?

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effects

Recently, the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump had a significant negative impact on US stock markets. Trade tensions, especially with China and many other countries, raised concerns about economic growth slowing down, which negatively affected investors’ risk appetite. However, today, with a decrease in the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies, stock markets opened positively.

Why Did US Stock Markets Open Positively Today?

Today’s positive opening in US stock markets reflects the overall optimism in the markets. The Dow Jones rose by 2.27%, the S&P 500 increased by 3.48%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.73%. This could indicate that investors are beginning to price in a more favorable economic environment. The lack of any new decisions regarding tariffs and the emergence of cooperation agreements are seen as positive developments for the markets.

However, uncertainty regarding global trade and economic growth still persists. Nevertheless, for investors, such optimistic developments create a confidence-building environment in the short term.

In the coming days, the movements of stock markets will be significantly influenced by economic developments in the US and globally.

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Global Markets in Turmoil: Tariffs and Declines Affect Markets

Global stock markets have experienced a huge sell-off in recent days, especially due to Trump’s new tariffs and China’s response. These economic and trade wars have forced investors to be cautious and increased the search for safe havens. The volatility in global stocks and commodity markets creates uncertainty about the future of the markets.

What is the Situation of World Stock Exchanges?

American Stock Exchanges: American Stock Exchanges have kept up with the turbulent course of global markets and major indices have experienced major losses in value.

• Nasdaq: -2.98% at 16,043.56.
• Dow Jones: -2.71% at 39,462.53,
• S&P 500: -2.73% at 5,246.38.

This was the worst trading day since March 2020. The global sell-off accelerated after the S&P 500 had its worst day ever, with a total loss of around $2.5 trillion.

European stock markets: European stock markets were similarly hit hard:

• DAX fell -4.25% to 20,775.10,
• FTSE 100 fell -4.05% to 8,132.74.
• CAC 40 fell -3.94%, adding to investors’ concerns.
• The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell the most since March 2020, with European stocks seeing a sharp sell-off.

Asia Pacific stocks: Asia Pacific stocks also suffered from the global sell-off:

• Nikkei 225 fell -2.15% to 32,897.50. (Premarket futures)
• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell to its lowest level in two months, reflecting regional concerns.

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U.S. Stocks Suffered Their Worst Drop Since 2020

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1,679 points (4%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 6% and the S&P 500 fell by 4.8%. Significant drops in the stocks of major companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon deepened the losses in Nasdaq.

The dollar also faced intense selling pressure, with the WSJ Dollar Index falling by 1.3%, hitting its lowest level since October. This decline raised concerns about the U.S. economy’s growth outlook.

Trade Wars and Recession Fears

After the announcement of new tariffs, JPMorgan raised the likelihood of the U.S. entering a recession to 60%. Europe and Canada quickly started retaliatory plans. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the EU might take action against U.S. tech companies, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on U.S. automobiles in response to Trump’s car tariffs.

Markets Continue Volatile Trend

Despite the market turmoil, Trump argued that the tariffs would benefit the U.S. economy in the long term. “The markets are going to boom,” Trump said, adding that he could impose new tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

During this period, oil prices fell by over 6%, while gold investors sold off after its recent rise. Investors warn that volatility in the stock market may persist, and the impact of trade wars could be felt more strongly in the coming months.

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Sharp Declines in U.S. Stock Markets Amid Trump’s Tariff Impact!

U.S. stock markets opened sharply lower as former President Donald Trump’s revived trade policies and newly imposed tariffs triggered a wave of sell-offs. The Nasdaq fell 4.58%, the Dow Jones dropped 2.93%, and the S&P 500 declined by 3.57%, fueling panic among investors. Concerns over market volatility and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s potential second-term trade policies continue to grow.

The renewed risk of a global trade war threatens to increase corporate costs and dampen growth expectations. Investors reacted swiftly to the announced tariffs, leading to aggressive sell-offs. This has heightened fears of disruptions in global supply chains and pressure on corporate profitability.

Additionally, uncertainty in trade policies could influence central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve (FED) is closely monitoring market turbulence to determine its response. Experts suggest that if trade conflicts weaken the economy, the FED may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, though this could also stoke inflation concerns.

Trump’s trade policy announcements have significantly impacted investor sentiment, sparking major sell-offs across U.S. stock markets. Until greater clarity emerges regarding future economic strategies and trade policies, market volatility is expected to persist.

This content does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency and stock markets carry high risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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