Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck’s Perspective

Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC’s price was not the coin’s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.

“Bitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,” said Van Eck.

Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.

Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction

The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.

“In a potential Iran settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,” Van Eck explained.

Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity

Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.

• After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.
• Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.
• Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
• Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin’s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.

Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.

Bottom and Market Resilience

Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.

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Ban on Privacy Tokens

Dubai’s financial regulators have prohibited the use and trading of privacy-focused tokens. Officials stated that the anonymous nature of these assets poses serious risks related to money laundering, financial crime, and other illicit activities. This ban is seen as a critical step toward improving investor safety and ensuring greater transparency and accountability in the crypto market. Experts believe this move will position Dubai as a more trustworthy global crypto hub and help investors make more informed decisions.

Tighter Rules for Stablecoins

In addition, Dubai has implemented broad regulations for the stablecoin market. The new rules require stablecoin issuers to maintain transparent reserves, undergo regular audits, and comply with strict financial reporting standards. These measures aim to safeguard investors’ funds while ensuring that stablecoins can provide long-term price stability. Authorities noted that these steps are expected to boost investor confidence and market liquidity not only locally but also on a global scale.

Statement from Dubai Authorities

Officials from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) announced the regulations with the following statement:

“Investor protection and transparency are our top priorities in the crypto market. Therefore, we are banning the use of privacy tokens and tightening the rules around stablecoins. These measures will not only affect the local market but will also directly impact the global crypto ecosystem, making Dubai a safer, more transparent, and more regulated hub. Our goal is to ensure that investors can make informed decisions and to build a sustainable market ecosystem.”

Authorities also stressed that the regulations will enhance accountability and transparency in crypto transactions and play a critical role in safeguarding investors’ funds. This announcement is viewed as a concrete demonstration of Dubai’s strategy to become a leading and reliable center for cryptocurrency innovation.

Assessment

These measures mark the beginning of a new era for crypto investors and companies operating in Dubai. While the ban on privacy tokens aims to reduce illegal activities, the stricter stablecoin regulations are designed to strengthen investor confidence. Overall, these developments reinforce Dubai’s goal of building a secure, transparent, and sustainable crypto ecosystem, while also opening the door to new opportunities for investors in the region.

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Announced earlier this week, the enactment of this law, along with the introduction of a new Law of Security and amendments to existing legislation, is designed to enable the DIFC to adapt to the evolving landscape of technology in international trade and financial markets. It also seeks to provide a clear legal framework for stakeholders involved in digital asset transactions.

Following a thorough review of regulatory approaches adopted globally and a period of public consultation conducted last year, the DIFC’s Digital Assets Law came into effect on March 8.

As a jurisdiction established to foster financial services and attract global investment, the DIFC operates with its own legal system and courts rooted in English common law, distinct from the broader legal framework of the UAE.

Jacques Visser, Chief Legal Officer at the DIFC, remarked on the significance of this legislation, stating, “We consider this legislation to be groundbreaking as the first legislative enactment to comprehensively outline the legal characteristics of digital assets as a matter of property law, and to establish protocols for the control, transfer, and management of digital assets by interested parties.”

This move by the DIFC to modernize its property and securities laws to accommodate blockchain capabilities is expected to foster growth in digital asset and tokenization initiatives, potentially attracting more market participants to the free zone.

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