Prediction Markets: Hassett Far Ahead

In recent days, there has been significant activity on global prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. According to the data:

• Hassett: 76%
• Kevin Warsh: 14%
• Christopher Waller: 10%

Hassett’s rise is especially notable. Hassett, who served as Director of the National Economic Council during the Trump administration, has long been considered a favorite. The main reason he is viewed as “crypto-friendly” in the crypto world is his role on Coinbase’s advisory council and the fact that he is known to hold a substantial stake in the exchange.

The assessment from Caitlin Long, CEO of Wyoming-based Custodia Bank, resonated within the crypto community:
“If Hassett really becomes Fed Chair, the influence of anti-crypto figures within the institution will be significantly reduced. We would see major changes at the Fed.”

A New Era in Crypto Policy?

Hassett’s rise brings back the possibility of a softening in the Fed’s approach to crypto assets. However, past examples show the importance of managing expectations. As remembered, Gary Gensler raised optimism when he arrived at the SEC with blockchain expertise, yet he maintained strict regulatory policies throughout his tenure.

If Hassett is chosen, there is no definitive picture that the Fed will fully open the door to crypto. However, compared to the current Fed structure, a more “experimental” stance and a more open approach to bank-crypto integration appear more likely.

Supervision Debates Continue Inside the Fed

While the new chair discussions continue, significant disagreements regarding supervisory and oversight mechanisms are emerging within the Fed. The institution’s recently announced “risk-focused supervision” approach has been viewed as too lenient by some internal figures. For this reason, it is clear that the new chair will take over a Fed already in the midst of a shift.

When Will the Announcement Come?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated, “It is highly likely that Trump will announce the new Fed Chair before Christmas,” increasing expectations even further.

All eyes are now on Washington. Hassett’s rising probability is being followed with great interest, especially by crypto investors and industry participants. In the coming weeks, we may witness critical developments that will directly shape the future of U.S. monetary policy and its relationship with crypto.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Will the New Fed Chair Be the Crypto-Friendly Hassett? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Expectations for Trump Have Declined on Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are known as platforms where users can speculate and place bets on political events. On these platforms, Trump’s chances of winning, which peaked in recent weeks, have now experienced a 10% decline. Experts suggest that this change could be attributed to various factors.

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump’s odds of victory have dropped over 10% from their all-time highs. On Polymarket, his peak rate of 71.5% on July 16 has fallen to 59.1%, while on Kalshi, his highest value of 65.2% on October 29 has decreased to 55%. (Kalshi’s prediction market became available on October 4.)

‘Whale’ Investor: “I Have No Political Agenda”

During this process, a prominent investor has drawn attention by emphasizing that the trades made in favor of Trump on the platforms are not connected to any political agenda. Typically referred to as “whales,” large investors can wield significant influence in the markets by using substantial amounts of capital. However, this investor argues that the trades are solely aimed at financial gain and do not have any political motives.

You Might Be Interested In: Could Trump’s Victory Stimulate the Crypto Markets?

Uncertainty Reigns in the Markets

With increasing uncertainties surrounding the election process in the upcoming period, fluctuations in predictions regarding Trump’s chances of winning are anticipated. This situation could lead to more speculation and volatility in the markets. Analysts point out that Trump’s odds in prediction markets may continue to fluctuate based on political developments in the coming weeks.

You can join our Telegram channel to not miss the news and stay informed about the crypto world.

The post Trump’s Chances of Winning Drop by 10% from Peak! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Trump-themed tokens are also facing declines, despite a surge in Donald Trump’s electoral prospects post-debate. TRUMP, the largest Trump PoliFi token, is down 10% on the day and 34% over the last week. TREMP, another Trump-related token, has similarly fallen nearly 10% in the past 24 hours and 37% over the week. The YES side of a Polymarket contract asking if Biden will drop out of the race has surpassed 60%, indicating growing speculation about his potential withdrawal.

Overall, the PoliFi sector has contracted by 11% in the last 24 hours, with most meme coins in the red. However, trading volumes on Polymarket have increased, suggesting that political bettors are shifting to this platform. According to Austin Freimuth, a research analyst at Messari, the June 27, 2024, Presidential debate failed to trigger a rally in top PoliFi memecoins. Freimuth believes that the announcement of Trump’s Vice Presidential pick could be the next significant event in the PoliFi space, potentially leading to the creation of new related memecoins.

Meanwhile, a Gavin Newsom token, trading as NOOSUM, is up 4% in the past 24 hours as the California Governor heads to D.C. to reportedly support Biden in meetings with Democrat Governors.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Trump-Biden Tussle Sees PoliFi Sector Lose Lustre as BODEN Drops 95% From Peak appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The Importance of Cryptocurrency Policies in the Last South Korean Elections

With the 2022 presidential election serving as a pivotal example, where President Yoon Suk-Yeol’s promises to lower taxes on crypto gains and support initial coin offerings (ICOs) garnered attention, the impact of cryptocurrency policies on electoral dynamics has become increasingly evident. Notably, the close margin of victory—less than 1%—underscored the potential sway of even a modest portion of voters influenced by crypto-related pledges.

Also, approximately two months after the last elections, the Terra stablecoin crash destroyed about $60 billion worldwide, reportedly affecting about 280,000 South Koreans, increasing the importance of crypto-related policies in the country.

Pledges for Crypto Users in the Upcoming Election

The significance of cryptocurrency policies in the electoral landscape is underscored by the magnitude of South Korea’s crypto user base, with reports indicating over 6.27 million users as of September 2023. Keeping in mind that both major parties, the Democratic Party (DPK) and the People Power Party (PPP), have strategically positioned themselves to court the growing cohort of cryptocurrency investors.

While both parties pledge similar things, the minor variations in their pledges come from their differing political stances over impending cryptocurrency tax laws. Both the PPP and the opposition Democratic Party (DPK) have stated that they are searching for ways to permit investors to buy spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). PPP also pledges to form a “digital asset promotion committee” to oversee legislation and enforcement. These divergent approaches highlight the critical role of cryptocurrency policies in the upcoming elections.

The Future of Crypto Policies

Beyond the borders of South Korea, the implications of crypto-related electoral outcomes resonate globally, shaping the trajectory of cryptocurrency policy on an international scale as crypto enthusiasts show tangible influence on policymaking decisions. While not undermining the importance of South Korea’s elections for crypto currencies, the U.S. presidential elections will be the most important one that shape the trajectory of crypto policies.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Cryptocurrency Policies Take Center Stage in South Korean Elections appeared first on Coin Engineer.